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Multivariate dynamic mediation analysis under a reinforcement learning framework
No full textMediation analysis is an important analytic tool commonly used in a broad range of scientific applications. In this article, we study the problem of mediation analysis when there are multivariate and conditionally dependent mediators, and when the variables are observed over multiple time points. The problem is challenging, because the effect of a mediator involves not only the path from the treatment to this mediator itself at the current time point, but also all possible paths pointed to this mediator from its upstream mediators, as well as the carryover effects from all previous time points. We propose a novel multivariate dynamic mediation analysis approach. Drawing inspiration from the Markov decision process model that is frequently employed in reinforcement learning, we introduce a Markov mediation process paired with a system of time-varying linear structural equation models to formulate the problem. We then formally define the individual mediation effect, built upon the idea of simultaneous interventions and intervention calculus. We next derive the closed-form expression, propose an iterative estimation procedure under the Markov mediation process model, and develop a bootstrap method to infer the individual mediation effect. We study both the asymptotic property and the empirical performance of the proposed methodology, and further illustrate its usefulness with a mobile health application
How selling online is affecting informal firms in South Asia
No full textUnderstanding how e-commerce platforms are affecting the small, informal firms that sell on them is a question of growing importance to researchers and policymakers in developing countries. This paper examines this question using data from surveys of firms selling on two e-commerce platforms in South Asia. The businesses selling on these platforms range widely in terms of size, degree of formalization, and other characteristics. Their main reason for joining the platforms is to access more customers. After joining, many sellers report (i) an expansion of their business, (ii) an increase in their incentive to formal registration, and (iii) increased visibility to tax authorities. Other less-widespread channels of impact include (i) the adoption of new or improved business practices and technologies, (ii) better access to finance, and (iii) greater flexibility in balancing home and work life. These reported impacts do not vary significantly by firm size or registration status, suggesting that the greater market access brought about by (selectively) joining e-commerce platforms benefits equally large and small (informal) firms. Given size and age, firms selling on the platform for a longer period are more likely to experience these impacts, suggesting that firms learn how to use the platform more effectively over time. Finally, firms on these platforms—even the micro and small ones, which tend to be informal—are from a select group, as they are owned and managed by individuals who are more educated and younger than the owners and managers of more typical firms in this setting
Elevating health significance post-pandemic: is the employee-organization relationship in a period of change?
No full textThe employee-organization relationship (EOR) is a well-established research topic in the applied psychology and organizational behavior literatures. However, the potential links between the EOR and employee health and well-being are understudied in comparison to the effects of the EOR on traditional organization-focused outcomes such as organizational commitment, job performance, and turnover. To address the need for development of the role of the EOR on employee health, we focus on two of the most popular EOR concepts: psychological contracts and perceived organizational support. We review the empirical research on the EOR and health and well-being as well as theoretical underpinnings of social exchange and reciprocity. We then suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may have increased emphasis on employee health and well-being, resulting in heightened employee expectations from their organization. Subsequently, we present a model based on social exchange theory to explain how this increased attention on health is linked with employee perceptions of organizational support and psychological contracts, ultimately contributing to enhanced or decreased health and well-being. Finally, we discuss the practical implications of the changing emphasis on the health and well-being of employees for the EOR and the importance of an expansion of research linking the EOR with health and well-being
More or the same? radical, disruptive, discontinuous, and breakthrough innovation
No full textThis paper addresses the conceptual ambiguity in the literature on exceptional innovations, labeled “radical,” “disruptive,” “breakthrough,” or “discontinuous.” A bibliometric analysis of 4407 articles shows that different labels are used by papers with shared theoretical foundations and thematic orientation. An in-depth analysis of 60 seminal contributions shows that definitions are (I) not always provided, (II) inconsistent within labels, and (III) not distinctive across labels. This complicates the exploration of the literature and the comparison of results. Definitions, when provided, agree on the existence of two underlying dimensions—novelty and impact—but disagree on how the labels relate to these dimensions. To advance conceptual clarity, we propose a typology of innovation trajectories that treats novelty and impact as distinct concepts and clarifies how and when novelty relates to impact
The role of artificial intelligence in humanitarian aid for achieving sustainable development goals
No full textArtificial Intelligence (AI) is gaining greater acknowledgement as a potent tool in the advancement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set forth by the United Nations. This article delves into the role played by AI in humanitarian aid activities across a range of SDGs, such as reducing poverty, eradicating hunger, improving healthcare, increasing educational opportunities, promoting gender equality, and promoting environmental sustainability. Through the use of AI for predictive analysis, tailored services, and optimized resource allocation, significant progress can be achieved in tackling global challenges. The integration of AI in these areas not only enhances efficiency and effectiveness but also fosters innovation and sustainable development
The local economic impact of the Swedish higher education system
No full textThis article examines the role of Swedish higher education institutions (HEIs) in economic development, focusing on the impact of their research capacities on local economic activity. Globally, HEIs are increasingly prioritising research, frequently at the expense of education and local economic engagement, as a means to climb the university ranking ladder. Sweden has been no exception. Our findings indicate that research intensity at Swedish HEIs does not correlate with higher local income. Rather, the opposite is the case: more emphasis on top-end research seems to undermine local income. We explore human capital and innovation as possible mechanisms for the limited local economic influence of Swedish HEIs. The results reveal that HEIs do not significantly improve local human capital. Moreover, despite Swedish HEIs holding intellectual property rights to foster innovation, the actual economic translation of this knowledge faces considerable hurdles, including a misalignment with industry needs and limited local business collaboration
Behavioral savings sessions increase the pursuit of solar products among refugees in Uganda
No full textDe facto exclusion of vulnerable populations from markets for energy-efficient technologies can result in multiple barriers to access. For example, exclusion can lead to limited knowledge about available products, an inability to distinguish high-quality from low-quality devices, and limited options for financing, making products seem unobtainable. However, behaviorally informed interventions can offer promising solutions in such contexts, even where exclusion is the result of structural causes. This paper uses a randomized control trial to consider the potential of such interventions for refugees in Uganda in the context of certified solar markets. We evaluate a behaviorally-informed information and savings session embedded in Village Savings and Lending Association (VSLA) meetings, finding evidence for increased pursuit of certified solar products in the treatment group two months later. Results manifest through the barriers described, with increased knowledge, trust in solar companies, financial inclusion through savings group support, and aspirations mediating effects
Anomalies or expected behaviors? Understanding stated preferences and welfare implications in light of contemporary behavioral economics
No full textThe stated preference (SP) literature contains an expansive body of research on behavioral “anomalies,” typically understood as response patterns that are inconsistent with choice theory in neoclassical economics. Although this literature often implies that anomalous behaviors are unique to SPs, widespread behavioral economic evidence of similar patterns across incentivized choice settings raises the potential for an alternative interpretation: SP “anomalies” reflect expected behaviors once systematic deviations from the standard economic model are considered. The parallels between SP anomalies and insights from behavioral economic revealed preference (RP) studies suggest that differences between SPs and RPs should not determine whether SPs are valid for applied welfare analysis. Moreover, these parallels suggest that behavioral economic approaches to calculating welfare implications of nonstandard behaviors may be applicable to SP studies. We review three such approaches (preference purification, reliance on conditions that encourage truthful preference disclosure, and the Bernheim-Rangel framework) and discuss their potential implications for SP research. We also consider more general insights from behavioral welfare economics for SP welfare analysis. We close by identifying promising avenues for interdisciplinary work at the intersection of SP research and behavioral welfare economics, to develop holistic frameworks with guidance for applied welfare economics in the presence of anomalous yet predictable behaviors
The childbearing of immigrants who arrived as children: understanding the role of age at arrival for women and men
No full textIt is well-known that childbearing is associated with age at migration, but most research has focused on foreign-born women who migrated as adults. Much less is known about male immigrants or immigrants who arrived as children, despite the importance of studying these groups to understand theories of adaptation and socialization. This study addresses these gaps with a case study of Sweden, using longitudinal whole-population data to analyze the role of age at arrival in determining childbearing. The results suggest that age at arrival affects fertility across the childbearing life course, although there is little evidence of critical ages at arrival. These results hold for women and men, particularly for immigrants from higher fertility origins, with more ambiguous results for immigrants from lower fertility origins. The main findings also persist after examining sources of selection and reverse causality using sex-specific family fixed-effects models and separate analyses for specific countries of birth. Therefore, the study provides evidence of an underlying process of childhood socialization, followed by adaptation, that is common for women and men who migrate. Theoretical implications are discussed, including the need for further work on the determinants and mechanisms of adaptation
A mixed-methods evaluation of a novel targeted health messaging intervention to promote COVID-19 protective behaviours and vaccination among Black and South Asian communities living in the UK (the COBHAM study)
No full textAim: To evaluate an intervention (a film and electronic leaflet) disseminated via text message by general practices to promote COVID-19 preventative behaviours in Black and South Asian communities. Methods: We carried out a before-and-after questionnaire study of attitudes to and implementation of COVID-19 preventative behaviours, and qualitative interviews about the intervention, with people registered with 26 general practices in England who identified as Black or South Asian. Results: In the 108 people who completed both questionnaires, we found no significant change in attitudes to and implementation of COVID-19 preventative behaviours, although power was too low to detect significant effects. A key qualitative finding was that participants felt they did not ‘belong’ to the group targeted by the intervention. Conclusion: Interventions targeting ethnic minorities in the UK need to acknowledge the heterogeneity of experience and circumstances of the target group so that people feel that the intervention is relevant to them