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We will need to be lucky: the problem of leadership in a deep pluralist world order facing a climate crisis
Full text linkThis paper assesses the problem of leadership in the contemporary world order. It starts by looking at how leaders are chosen. The argument is that this process is diverse to the point of randomness, and unlikely to change much. The selection processes are mostly not geared to produce leaders who are both capable and virtuous. The argument then moves to consider the difficult context in which leaders will have to operate: a global conjuncture of two major transitions and the interplay between them. The first transition is in the global political economy, from a Western world order to one of deep pluralism, in which wealth, power, knowledge, and political and cultural authority are much more widely distributed than during the past two-hundred years. The second one centres on the fast-mounting contradiction between humankind’s unrestrained developmentalism and the carrying capacity of the planet: summed up as the Anthropocene crisis. The argument is that this conjuncture is likely to generate leaders who exacerbate rivalry and conflict. There is a pathway that could open opportunities for virtuous leaders, but we will have to be lucky as well as skilled to find it
Review times for new drugs and submission delays among the FDA and 4 international regulators, 2014–22
No full textFactors influencing the timing of regulatory submission for new drugs across countries are poorly understood. We identified all new drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or European Medicines Agency (EMA) during the period 2014–18 and tracked their regulatory submissions to the US, the European Union, Canada, Japan, and Australia through 2022. We assessed whether disease area, orphan status, therapeutic value, market size, and launch price were associated with submission delays. The FDA received the highest proportion of first submissions (70 percent). Median submission delays ranged from zero months (FDA) to 18.5 months (Australia). The range of median regulatory review times was small (9.2–14.1 months) compared with the range of median submission delays. Drugs with moderate-to-high therapeutic value were associated with a six-month earlier submission time compared to drugs with low therapeutic value, on average. Higher-price drugs were associated with earlier submission, on average. Overall, cross-national differences in drug availability largely reflected differences in submission, not regulatory review, times. Although the US had greater and faster availability of novel therapeutics, the difference was smaller for drugs that offered moderate-to-high therapeutic value
Managing the self: the "invisible work" of British Muslim women in maintaining safety in public spaces
No full textThis paper explores the socio-spatial dynamics of safety for Muslim women who wear the hijab in Western urban public spaces. Integrating critical interdisciplinary studies, it extends debates on urban planning to include the ‘invisible work’ of identity management. We demonstrate how Muslim women tactically negotiate their identity and safety, adapting their appearance and behaviour in response to their environment and status, both as minorities and women. Taking East London as its case study, and drawing on interviews with twenty-two Muslim women, our findings indicate that spatial interventions like clear sight lines and community spaces intended to enhance safety and inclusivity cannot sufficiently address the ingrained political, cultural and social biases that generate insecurity. While recognizing the limits on the outcomes of planning, we build on calls for a more phenomenological approach to planning for public space. We argue that integrating cultural diversity and fostering inclusion demands a broader understanding of ‘safety’: one that recognizes the complex ways in which minority communities experience urban spaces. To achieve this, we focus on the importance of planners being more sensitive to intersectionality to engage more fully with power dynamics that inform a sense of safety in public space
Don't rock the boat! Do men prefer women leaders who support the status quo?
No full textWomen remain underrepresented in leadership, particularly in traditionally masculine work settings. At the same time, the visibility of this imbalance has led to growing calls for diversifying leadership. This research examines how both men and women contribute to the preservation or disruption of gender inequality in masculine organizational contexts. Men remain the gatekeepers of change—deciding who rises to the top and under what conditions—while women face the strategic dilemma of fitting in by downplaying inequality (supporting the status quo, sometimes called ‘queen bee behaviour’) or ‘rocking the boat’ by advocating social change (challenging the status quo). Across five experimental studies (total N = 887), we examined how evaluators assessed male and female leadership candidates who either supported or challenged the status quo. Results revealed that although men favoured female over male candidates, they consistently preferred women who reinforced the status quo over those who advocated equality. By contrast, male candidates who supported the status quo were penalized, and female evaluators showed no such preferences. These findings highlight subtle mechanisms through which gendered power dynamics are maintained, underscoring both the strategic trade‐offs women must navigate to advance and the conditional nature of men's support for gender equality
Dirac's theorem for graphs of bounded bandwidth
No full textWe provide an optimal sufficient condition, relating minimum degree and bandwidth, for a graph to contain a spanning subdivision of the complete bipartite graph K2,ℓ. This includes the containment of Hamilton paths and cycles, and has applications in the random geometric graph model. Our proof provides a greedy algorithm for constructing such structures
Corporate crime and conceptions of a corporate person
No full textI argue that our understanding of the basis for corporate criminal liability and punishment would be enhanced by bringing out the different conceptions of the company that the law commonly employs, in shaping liability and justifying punishment. These are the conceptions of a company as (i) an abstract entity, (ii) an entity led by a supreme executive authority, (iii) a ‘real’ entity, and (iv) a concrete legal entity. In the course of the argument, I also make the case for using the increasingly popular ‘failure to prevent’ model of corporate criminal liability, particularly in cases of fault-based criminal wrongdoing by persons associated with the company. In that regard, I conclude with some reflections on the difference that the size and nature (e.g. ‘family firm’) of a company makes to the proper model of liability
Mean field games without rational expectations
No full textMean Field Game (MFG) models implicitly assume “rational expectations”, meaning that the heterogeneous agents being modeled correctly know all relevant transition probabilities for the complex system they inhabit. When there is common noise, it becomes necessary to solve the “Master equation”, in which the infinite-dimensional density of agents is a state variable. The rational expectations assumption and the implication that agents solve Master equations are unrealistic in many applications. We show how to instead formulate MFGs with non-rational expectations. Departing from rational expectations is particularly relevant in “MFGs with a low-dimensional coupling”, i.e. MFGs in which agents’ running reward function depends on the density only through low-dimensional functionals of this density. This happens, for example, in most macroeconomics MFGs in which these low-dimensional functionals have the interpretation of “equilibrium prices”. In MFGs with a low-dimensional coupling, departing from rational expectations allows for completely sidestepping the Master equation and for instead solving much simpler finite-dimensional HJB equations. We introduce an adaptive learning model as a particular example of non-rational expectations and discuss its properties
Does securing the commons conserve resources and improve well-being?
No full textPolicies to secure property rights extend over hundreds of millions of hectares of land claimed as common property. Well-being and resource outcomes from securing the commons are theoretically shown to vary, conditional on local institutional quality and the extent of resource dependence among policy recipients. A differences-in-differences framework is applied to micro-scale panel data to evaluate the impacts of securing forest commons in Malawi. We find short-term negative effects on food security and non-food expenditures but no impact on forest loss rates. Baseline institutional capacity and households' labour portfolios are empirically shown to condition outcomes, with implications for policy targeting
Tracing the demand- and supply-side of citizenship in Moldova during undulations of democracy
No full textMultinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly challenged by the strategic implications of economic sanctions, which are imposed in response to geopolitical instability, international conflict, and violations of international norms. In this paper, we demonstrate that superior resources and capabilities enhance the ownership advantages of MNEs, enabling them to pursue foreign direct investment (FDI) in sanctioned locations. We also build on institutional theory to examine contextual conditions and find that effective home country institutions deter investment to sanctioned locations and decrease the magnitude of the moderating effect of firm resources and experience. Moreover, being in a sanctioned location leads firms to invest more to other sanctioned locations because of the resulting specific ownership advantages. We test our conjectures on a large panel dataset and find support for our arguments. In post hoc analysis, we also examine the impact of sanctions on locational choice, highlighting that they have a deterrent effect. Our results have important implications for managers and policy makers in terms of international management and institutional dynamics
The effect of adult psychological therapies on employment and earnings: evidence from England
No full textBackground People suffering from common mental disorders (CMDs), such as depression and anxiety, are more likely to be inactive in the labor market. Psychological therapies are highly effective at treating CMDs, but less is known about their impact on long-term labor market outcomes. Methods Using national treatment program data in England, NHS Talking Therapies (NHSTT), with unique linkage to administration data on employment and census records, we estimated the effects of NHSTT on employment and earnings. We used an event study approach using individual fixed effects to capture time-invariant confounders and natural recovery. Results Overall, completing treatment led to a maximum average increase of £17 in monthly earnings (year 2) and a likelihood of paid employment by 1.5 percentage points (year 7). Those ‘Not working, seeking work’ saw a maximum average increase in pay of £63 per month (year 7) and a likelihood of paid employment by 3.1 percentage points (year 4). Patients in the younger age groups (25–34 years) saw the largest effect on the likelihood of paid employment by 2.3 percentage points (year 7), followed by those aged 35–44 years with 2.0 percentage points (year 5). Conclusions Completion of psychological treatment for CMDs through the national NHSTT program leads to sustained increases in both employment and earnings up to 7 years after the start of treatment. Our findings demonstrate the economic benefits of treating CMDs and how investing in mental health can impact labor market participation