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Algorithms at your service: understanding how X’s systems of recommendation likely fuelled the far-right riots in the United Kingdom by amplifying visual representations of racist conspiracy theories
No full textThe 2024 riots in the United Kingdom have been widely attributed to the mainstreaming of the far right and the spread of fake news regarding the Southport attack. While much attention has been paid to the influence exercised by fake news, little has been said about the role of racist conspiracy theories linked to violent extremism and terrorism. This article addresses this gap using mixed methods to examine how X’s recommendation systems likely fuelled the riots by amplifying visual representations of the great replacement and white genocide conspiracy theories. In addition to showing how algorithms increased the visibility of posts featuring images (particularly those created with AI) and videos representing racist conspiracy theories, this article explores how these posts likely fuelled the riots by appealing to a crusading mentality that projected White/European men as morally entitled to defend Britain, animating racist fantasies deeply entrenched in the Western collective unconscious
What next for African Union peace operations in Somalia?
No full textThis Strategic Update from Partha Moman traces the evolution of African Union peace operations in Somalia, from AMISOM’s deployment in 2007 to the current AUSSOM mission; it addresses the failure of negotiations and strategic vision, the reduction of multilateral intervention, shifting mandates, operational challenges, and political violence dynamics. As security in Somalia remains volatile and funding gaps persist, this paper provides policy recommendations for a strategic reorientation of AUSSOM towards enabling positive political dialogue, improving transparency and cost-effectiveness to foster long-term peace and stability
Fostering green and inclusive productivity growth
No full textThis chapter explains the main ideas underpinning the Schumpeterian growth paradigm and how it provides a new lens to look at the determinants and effects of the growth process. Schumpeter was pessimistic about the future of capitalism. Indeed, his belief was that capitalism was doomed because in his view it was impossible to prevent incumbent firms from barring new innovations, either directly or by exploiting political connections with government authorities. The chapter uses the lenses of the Schumpeterian paradigm to revisit growth policy debates and also to rethink capitalism and its ability to reconcile the promise of sustained prosperity with the quest for greener and more inclusive growth. We argue that the proper functioning of an economy of innovation and creative destruction rests on the triangle between firms that innovate, the state, which is meant to regulate and invest, and civil society, which serves as a watchdog to induce firms and the state to do the right things
On productivism
No full text‘Productivism’ refers to an approach that prioritises the dissemination of productive economic opportunities throughout the entire economy and segments of the labour force. It differs from what has come to be called ‘neoliberalism’ by assigning governments and civil society significant roles in achieving this goal. Productivism puts less faith in markets and is suspicious of large corporations. It emphasises production and investment over finance and the revitalisation of local communities over globalisation. It also departs from the Keynesian welfare state by focusing less on redistribution, social transfers, and macroeconomic management, and more on creating economic opportunity by working on the supply side of the economy to create good, productive jobs for everyone. This chapter relates the contemporary labour market problems of advanced economies to the dualism literature in economic development, which focuses on the divergence between ‘modern’ and ‘traditional’ segments within poor economies. It then highlights the nature of the new challenges and why established models of economic growth and Keynesian social welfare need to be updated. It describes new modes of industrial policy required to deal with these challenges and questions whether our governments are up to it. It also discusses how the elements of this new strategy are drawing support from both sides of the political spectrum
Evolution of evidence on overall survival benefits of cancer drugs included on the national reimbursement drug list of China, 2005–2022: an observational study
No full textObjective: To assess evidence of overall survival (OS) benefits of cancer drugs listed in China’s National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), the guiding standard for public insurance coverage of drugs and characterise the evolution of survival evidence after NRDL inclusion. Design: Retrospective observational study. Setting: China’s NRDL and journal publications. Participants: Adult cancer drug indications approved in China from 1 January 2005 to 30 June 2022. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the availability of OS benefit evidence at the time of initial NRDL listing, defined as a statistically significant survival gain over the control arm in pivotal clinical trials. The secondary outcome was the availability of evidence on clinical benefits after NRDL inclusion as of 31 December 2023, measured by OS and the European Society for Medical Oncology-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) version 1.1. ESMO-MCBS scores A to B in the curative setting or 4 or 5 in the non-curative setting were considered a substantial clinical benefit. Results: By 30 June 2022, 72.6% (175/241) of cancer indications approved in China were included in the NRDL. The median time interval between marketing authorisation and NRDL inclusion decreased from 9.4 years in 2005–2010 to 4.1 years in 2011–2016, and 1.1 years in 2017–2022. 62 (35.4%) and 4 (2.3%) indications had documented OS benefits at the time of NRDL assessment or after, respectively. The median survival benefit was 3.9 months. Of the 109 indications without documented OS benefits by the end of the observation, 21 (19.3%) had substantial clinical benefits as measured by the ESMO-MCBS. Conclusions and relevance: The time interval from regulatory approval to NRDL listing in China decreased over time. However, more than half of cancer drug indications listed for public insurance reimbursement did not have confirmed survival gain or substantial clinical benefits at the time of NRDL inclusion or after. Payers should give sufficient consideration to clinical benefit evidence when making reimbursement and disinvestment decisions to avoid wasteful spending of public health insurance funds
Trends in global glucose lowering medication consumption: insights from pharmaceutical sales data (2010–2021)
No full textDiabetes imposes a substantial global burden. Examining consumption trends of glucose lowering medications can help facilitate cross-country comparisons and uncover areas of unmet need. Leveraging IQVIA MIDAS data, our analysis spans 72 countries and 2 regions from 2010 to 2021, employing defined daily dose (DDD) as a consumption metric. We assessed consumption trends across income tiers and individual country rankings, exploring WHO essential medicines, insulin, new drug classes and specific drugs, with further analyses on their correlation with treatment guideline releases. Global glucose lowering medication consumption rate increased from 39.2 to 54.0 DDD per thousand inhabitants per day (DDD/TID) between 2010 and 2021. Across the same period, median consumption rates were 60.1 DDD/TID [IQR, 46.5-70.6] in high-income countries (HICs), 26.9 DDD/TID [IQR, 8.0-51.3] in upper-middle income countries (UMICs) and 10.8 DDD/TID [IQR, 6.5-18.5] in low- and lower-middle income countries (LMICs). While the most significant consumption changes occurred in UMICs and LMICs such as Bosnia, China and Indonesia, HICs such as Finland, Canada and USA consistently showed the highest consumption rates. Over the study period, the median consumption rates for essential medicines, insulin and new drug classes increased, except for intermediate-acting insulin and soluble insulin/biosimilars. HICs drove the consumption of fast-acting and long-acting insulin and new drug classes, whereas UMICs and LMICs drove the consumption of intermediate-acting insulin. This study sheds light on the global variations in glucose lowering medication consumption, providing insights to address access gaps, particularly in UMICs and LMICs
Reimagining “public” outreach on environmental issues: interrogating the hegemonic foundations of public engagement/participation/relations
No full textPublic outreach is now ubiquitous in environmental decision-making processes. However, institutionally-led engagement often retains power in the hands of the elite to decide the agenda and process. This creates a disconnect between the goal of strengthening democratic processes and actual outcomes, perpetuating inequalities between colonizing elites and Indigenous peoples in addressing environmental crises. We argue that public outreach for better environmental outcomes has been ineffective because it embodies a democratic imaginary bound up in hegemonic western ontology, epistemology, and temporality. We present a different starting point for public participation by considering questions raised by Indigenous ontologies, epistemologies and temporalities in the quest for truly equitable outcomes. The article lays the foundation for reframing environmental communication as a process where meaning is co-created by diverse participants with different ways of knowing and being, different sources of knowledge, and different understandings of time
Financial equilibrium with preference updating
No full textFinancial equilibrium models provide important information on the movement of asset prices in response to subjective beliefs and consumption patterns of economic agents. It is standard to assume that agents are rational and have fixed preferences from the outset—in particular, these do not depend on other agents’ actions in the market. This work deviates from this assumption by allowing the subjective views and consumption clocks of an individual agent to depend on the whole history of the wealth and consumption distribution across agents in the economy. The updating mechanism is generic and may accommodate different behavioural models; for example, it can model herding. In order to analyse existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, we assume that agents have numeraire-invariant preferences, which are rich enough to render any observe agents’ behaviour optimal. The market contains a borrowing and lending account in zero net supply, as well as a stock in positive net supply providing certain dividend stream, exogenously specified. A characterisation of existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a Brownian setting is provided in terms of stochastic differential equations. The proposed framework naturally allows for equilibria where the risky asset in positive net supply is suboptimal to hold for investment
The moral wall: explaining participation and non-participation in political violence and terrorism from a survey of the Provisional IRA
No full textWhy some people participate in political violence and terrorism, and others do not, even when they share ideological frames, identities, perceptions, grievances and interests, neighborhoods or social networks, and are generally from similar contexts and backgrounds, and share similar experiences, is a puzzle for social scientists. When individuals share values, environments and experiences, their motivations for violent action should be similar, leading to similar levels of participation. In fact, we find from our survey of the Provisional IRA that the opposite is the case. A moral wall of preparedness to kill and die for a cause is the key distinction between participants and non-participants