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Arms, technology and influence: industrial mercantilism and the rise of global China in the post-Cold War period
No full textOver the last three decades, China has transitioned from a major importer to a major exporter of conventional weapons. Chinese defence firms have meanwhile become global actors pursuing increasingly complex defence offset programmes, international research partnerships, and joint ventures. Drawing on a theorybuilding process tracing research design, this thesis explains the internationalisation of China’s defence sector by reconceptualising the militaryindustrial complex (MIC). Considering China’s mercantilist political economy in which the party-state uses economic means to maximise national power, this thesis describes this system of strategies, policies, institutions and actors as military-industrial mercantilism (MIM). In contrast to the MIC, MIM is a deliberately crafted and not an unwarranted consequence of defence modernisation that features a distinct international dimension linked to China’s need to catch-up with advanced defence-industrial powers such as the United States and Russia. MIM’s core features include (1) the development of an arms exports business in support of foreign policy objectives and (2) the acquisition of technology and expertise to achieve self-reliance in weapons production. However, despite intervention by senior leaders to exert control over the defence establishment in China’s hierarchical political-economy, MIM is also characterised by (3) a legacy of central planning, manifesting in bureaucratic fragmentation and resistance to disruptive reforms. This thesis thus offers two contributions. First, drawing on primary sources collected by the author, including first-hand observations at defence exhibitions, it reconceptualises the MIC with reference to China’s case-specific attributes. Second, it highlights resonant themes between China’s emergence as a major arms exporter and the universe of cases of military-industrial complexes in autocratic political systems amidst a period of rapid global rearmament and great power competition. This has implications for our understanding of China as a security actor and Chinese arms exports as well as the link between defence industrialisation and foreign policy
The benefit of national clinical guidelines for open lower limb fractures in reducing healthcare burden: a length of inpatient stay cost-analysis
No full textIntroduction : Severe open lower limb fractures are complex and costly injuries. Studies reporting the costs associated with these injuries, the economic impact of complications, and the clinical benefit of adherence to national guidelines have been previously reported. However, the economic benefits of national guidelines and their relationship with length of inpatient stay have not been described. Methods An international retrospective cohort study, using length of stay as a proxy for in-hospital economic impact, comparing the duration of inpatient stay in countries with national guidelines and those without. Results In a cohort of 2641 patients from 16 countries, length of stay was 17% lower in countries with national guidelines, equivalent to 2-3 fewer inpatient days per patient. This difference was primarily driven by a lower incidence of deep infection observed in countries with national clinical guidelines. Conclusion The presence of national guidelines for the management of severe lower limb injuries is associated with both improved clinical outcomes and reduced length of stay and therefore healthcare burden. Whilst application and adoption of national guidelines is not without challenges, their implementation is associated with significant clinical and economic benefits
AI-augmented predictions: LLM assistants improve human forecasting accuracy
No full textLarge language models (LLMs) match and sometimes exceed human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment human judgment in a forecasting task. We evaluate the effect on human forecasters of two LLM assistants: one designed to provide high-quality (‘superforecasting’) advice, and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate neglecting, thus providing noisy forecasting advice. We compare participants using these assistants to a control group that received a less advanced model that did not provide numerical predictions or engage in explicit discussion of predictions. Participants (N = 991) answered a set of six forecasting questions and had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout. Our preregistered analyses show that interacting with each of our frontier LLM assistants significantly enhances prediction accuracy by between 24% and 28% compared to the control group. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced outlier effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 41%, compared with 29% for the noisy assistant. We further examine whether LLM forecasting augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our data do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to a frontier LLM assistant, even a noisy one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks compared to a less powerful model that does not provide specific forecasting advice. However, the effects of outliers suggest that further research into the robustness of this pattern is needed
Introduction
No full textThe chapter introduces the main purpose and themes of the book. It highlights the lack of engagement between the English School of International Relations and International Political Economy and suggests how the gap between them can be bridged. The two major aims of the book are: to establish the market as a primary institution of global international society; and to trace its emergence and fluctuating fortunes from the nineteenth century until today. The chapter ends with two injunctions. The first is to the English School, to incorporate the market, and the economic sector into its scheme of modern primary institutions. The second is to International Political Economy to take on board the distinction between primary and secondary institutions, which allows us to analyse the evolution of the global economy as part of the wider international structure of global international society. The chapter ends with an overview of the book
Funding policy and funders’ role in driving academic-practitioner collaborations
No full textThis report highlights the key ideas and findings of a mapping exercise conducted in the initial phases of the ‘Funding Policy and Funders’ (FPF) sub-project, which developed out of the 'Exploring the Potential of Academic-Practitioner Collaborations for Social Change (AcPrac)1 project hosted under the LSE’s AFSEE programme. The AcPrac project has two key objectives: 1) to contribute to AFSEE’s theory of change by exploring the conditions that are conducive to developing generative processes of knowledge exchange between academics and practitioners; and 2) to examine the methodological and epistemological challenges of researching inequalities, and particularly how the latter might be reproduced through the research process itself. The FPF sub-project investigates how the funding landscape shapes and drives AcPrac collaborations for social change, focusing on funding programmes that broadly address the reduction of inequalities
From smart phones to smart students: learning vs. distraction using smartphones in the classroom
No full textWe investigate the impact of using smartphones in the classrooms on students’ academic performance. We collaborated with a vocational school in China to randomly allocate students taking Chinese verbal lectures into one of four experimental conditions: (i) smartphones banned; (ii) smartphones allowed and used at will by students without guidance; (iii) smartphones allowed and used at will by students, with teachers prompting students to use the smartphones to assist instruction; (iv) smartphones banned, with teachers prompting students to use a paper-based aid to assist instruction. We measured the academic performance gains of students by comparing their scores from identical tests taken at the beginning and the end of the lectures. Our findings indicate that allowing students to use smartphones at will in the classroom without guidance reduced their performance gain compared to when smartphones were banned. However, performance gain increased significantly when teachers asked students to use smartphones to assist with instruction. Students using the paper-based aid instruction performed similarly to those with banned smartphones. To delve into the underlying mechanisms that explain these findings, we analyzed video recordings of the classes to track students’ time spent learning versus being distracted, with or without using smartphones. We found that the increased performance gain when smartphones were used to assist instruction came from the marginal benefit associated with smartphone-assisted learning outweighing the negative e!ect associated with smartphone-induced distraction. We also found that allowing smartphones into the classroom to aid instruction can help bridge educational gaps between male and female students and between low- and high-performing students. However, smartphones in the classroom may also induce a “rich-get-richer” dynamic where students in information technology majors or from urban areas benefit more compared to those in non-information technology majors or born in rural areas. Our work contributes to the literature on technology-assisted learning and o!ers implications for teachers, school administrators, and policymakers to develop policies for smartphone use in classrooms
Expanding access to NCD services via community retail pharmacies in LMICs: a systematic review of the literature
No full textBackground : Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) pose a significant global health challenge. In LMICs, NCDs are an incresing driver of premature deaths and have substantial economic impacts, particularly on working-age adults. The World Health Organization has identified four priority NCDs – cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancer – which are included in its Package of Essential Non-Communicable Disease Interventions for low-resource primary care settings. However, a shortage of healthcare professionals further compounds the problem. Pharmacists, who could play a pivotal role in NCD care, remain underutilised. Methods : We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies on the role of community pharmacies and pharmacists in delivering NCD services in low- and middle-income settings and assessed their risk of bias. Searches were performed in PubMed, MEDLINE via Ovid, and CINAHL from 1990 to 2022, including English, French, or Spanish publications. Results : Out of 1,284 articles, 23 met inclusion criteria, predominantly focusing on diabetes (65%), followed by cardiovascular diseases (22%), cancer (9%), and asthma (4%). Most studies were conducted in Asia (52%), followed by South America (22%) and Africa (13%). Significant improvements were observed in glycaemic control and medication adherence for diabetes, and in blood pressure management and adherence for hypertension. Positive outcomes were also seen in health behaviours for breast cancer, asthma, and cardiovascular disease risk management. Interventions were cost-effective for managing diabetes and hypertension in elderly patients. However, accessibility challenges were noted in vaccination programmes, and concerns about bias were identified, particularly in observational studies. Conclusions : Expanding NCD services through community pharmacies in low and middle-income countries can significantly improve health outcomes. Pharmacists can enhance education, screening, and management for NCDs, leading to better disease control and patient satisfaction. Addressing resource constraints, legal barriers, and disease focus disparities is essential. Adequate training, financial incentives, and collaboration among stakeholders are crucial for integrating pharmacists into NCD care frameworks
A comprehensive analysis of transactions in the Greek residential property market
No full textWe study the Greek residential property market during the recovery period using data from the Property Transfer Value Registry. We examine 132,189 transactions from 2017 to 2024 and find a significant increase in both the number and value of transactions. Markedly, this increase is more profound among older properties and flats. The findings indicate potential overheating in the residential property market, as we move away from an era of relative undervaluation and head toward higher levels of transactions and prices. However, there is significant geographical heterogeneity both across the country and within the Athens area. The econometric analysis reveals a significant relationship between the market value and the objective value of properties. Finally, we find that the “My Home” government program is not associated with an increase in transaction values for homes that meet its criteria
Interaction of public and private employment: evidence from a German government move
No full textWe use the German government move from Bonn to Berlin in 1999 to explore the interaction between public and private sector employment within a local labor market. Our findings show a positive effect of public sector expansion on private sector employment, with a local multiplier of 1.32–1.35, mainly driven by the service sector. The policy impact is highly localized, strongest within 300 m of a relocation site, and evident one year after the relocation. Three quarters of new private sector jobs were created by establishments that did not exist before 1998. These newly created jobs disproportionally employ women, younger workers, individuals in managerial and professional roles, and those with lower levels of education