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Global burden of emergency and operative conditions: an analysis of Global Burden of Disease data, 2011–2019
No full textObjective To estimate the global burden of conditions requiring emergency or operative care and to investigate variations over time and between countries. Methods We obtained data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from the Global Burden of Disease database for 193 countries covering 2011 to 2019. We defined emergency conditions as conditions that, if not diagnosed and treated within hours to days of onset, often lead to serious physical or mental disability or death. We defined operative conditions as conditions that may require the expertise of a surgically trained provider and these conditions were identified using a modified Delphi consensus process. Findings In 2019, emergency conditions accounted for 27 167 926 deaths and 1 015 000 000 DALYs globally and operative conditions accounted for 17 648 680 deaths and 619 600 000 DALYs. Conditions classified as emergency-and-operative conditions accounted for 6 966 425 deaths and 303 344 808 DALYs. For emergency conditions, the per capita burden of deaths and DALYs was greatest for low-income countries. Between 2011 and 2019, deaths and DALYs due to emergency conditions decreased, whereas deaths due to operative conditions increased slightly. These trends may have been driven by strengthened prevention and early detection mechanisms, improved emergency care provision or epidemiological changes. However, because emergency and operative conditions were defined differently, it may not be valid to compare trends directly. Conclusion The high global burden of emergency and operative conditions identified underscores the importance of strengthening and scaling up integrated emergency, critical and operative care internationally
The targeting of economic sanctions
No full textWe use a comprehensive dataset of economic sanctions over the past 30 years to show that US unilateral sanctions are often off the mark, while United Nations sanctions tend to be well-targeted. Sanctions that target democratic stability and conflict resolution are best correlated with their stated goals
Policing carbon markets
No full textCarbon markets have emerged in recent decades as one of the most important tools for curbing industrial greenhouse gas emissions, but they present a number of novel enforcement challenges as compared to more conventional pollution regulations. To shed light on the practical issues involved in policing carbon markets, this study presents the first comprehensive analysis of the EU Emissions Trading System, a single programme that was policed by up to 31 different national regulators. Since 2006, 98.8% of installations in the EU ETS have complied with the regulation according to official data. The observed non-compliance should have resulted in €13 billion in total fines, but only €2.1 billion appear to have been collected. More generally, variation in the probability and severity of fines across national jurisdictions and time explain just one-tenth of the variation in compliance rates. This pattern of high rates of compliance coupled with low rates of enforcement is known in the literature as ‘Harrington’s paradox’. Meanwhile, other enforcement strategies that have been pointed to as resolutions to Harrington’s paradox in other applications, such as ‘naming and shaming’, appear to have had little discernible effect. Therefore, resolving Harrington’s paradox in the context of cap and trade regulation remains a fruitful area for future research
Spatial environmental economics
No full textHow do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches
A woman’s job: making middle lives in new India
No full textIn this excerpt from A Woman’s Job: Making Middle Lives in New India, Asiya Islam examines the lives of educated young women working in precarious jobs in Delhi’s service sector. The book’s rich ethnography explores how these women navigate work, home life, gender norms and class dynamics amidst socio-economic transformation and globalisation. A Woman’s Job: Making Middle Lives in New India. Asiya Islam. Cambridge University Press. 2024
Child online safety – next steps for regulation, policy and practice
No full textFollowing the Online Safety Act, Ofcom has published its guide for tackling harms and risks online. But critics argue that these guidelines don’t go far enough. Sonia Livingstone analyses the concerns raised and argues that more and smarter regulation is needed that’s up to date with the way children use the internet. The UK Government needs to be ready to push back against the likes of Musk and Zuckerberg who promote further deregulation of their sector
Optimal designs for efficacy-toxicity response in dose finding studies using the bivariate probit model
No full textPhase I clinical trials are the first-in-human studies that primarily focus on the safety profile of drugs. Traditionally, the primary aim of a phase I clinical trial is to establish the maximum tolerated dose and characterize the toxicity profile of the tested agents. As a secondary aim, some phase I studies also include studies to obtain preliminary efficacy information about the experimental agents. In our research, we consider the optimal design of experiments in extended phase I clinical trials where both efficacy and toxicity are measured and the maximum tolerated dose has been established. We represent the response of both outcomes using a bivariate probit model for correlated responses and propose systematic numerical approaches based on Semidefinite Programming to address the problem. We construct locally optimal experimental designs for the following situations: (i) responses with efficacy and toxicity strongly correlated versus non-correlated, by varying the correlation parameter; (ii) a priori known correlation versus unknown correlation; (iii) unconstrained versus constrained designs, where the constraints represent safety limits, budget constraints and probability bounds; (iv) single versus combined drugs. Additionally, we consider four distinct optimality criteria: D–, A–, E–, and K–optimality. Our methodologies are extensively tested, and we demonstrate the optimality of the designs using equivalence theorems. To enrich our analysis, an equivalence theorem for the K–optimality criterion is derived
School admissions in comparative perspective: a focus on China, Chile, Sweden and Germany
No full textThis working paper focuses on legislative provision and policy regarding (lower) secondary school admissions in four countries: Chile, China, Germany and Sweden. It seeks to compare first, how legislative provision (and policy) varies between countries, and the role played by national and subnational levels of government; second, how admissions arrangements to lower secondary schools vary between jurisdictions, and the role parents have in the process; and third, which groups of pupils, if any, are prioritised in the admissions process. We present an overview of the policy context and legislative provision in each country before addressing the intricacies of the admissions arrangements. Our comparative analysis reveals that in three of the four case study countries legislative provision seeks to minimise selective practices, with a view to maximising equality of opportunity as regards school access. However, there are tensions in each country. Thus, in Chile families with sufficient resources are able to attend subsidised schools which require co-payment (the most disadvantaged families are exempt). In China, there are tensions as children without hukou status may not have access to the well-respected public schools. In Sweden, there is the potential for selectivity as parents who do not wish their child to attend the municipal school need to actively make a choice for an alternative school. Possible barriers include the queuing system used by independent schools which can limit options for parents who are not in a position to register for a place in a timely manner. In Germany, early academic selection is the norm, with admission to a selective grammar school (Gymnasium) being a function of the primary school’s recommendation and the extent to which it is binding on parents
Ethnocratic localism and affective politics: unmasking right-wing imaginaries in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movements
No full textWithin the dominant framing of geopolitics as a democratic-authoritarian binary, scholarship on anti-authoritarian movements in non-democratic contexts such as Hong Kong often adopts familiar tropes. These include depictions of progressiveness, pro-civicness, and a bottom-up yearning for egalitarian freedom. Hong Kong, in particular, is positioned as a democratic West-loving bulwark against authoritarian China. This paper explores how, aside from groups that use notions of democracy in good-faith, these liberal tropes form a deliberate communicative strategy that subsumes racist, xenophobic, and misogynistic discourses. Using historical and sociological scholarship, I trace how anti-Chinese and colonially nostalgic worldviews are woven into certain local Hong Kong subjectivities, against the backdrop of its historical relationships with the Chinese state and Britain. I analyse the (re)fashioning of right-wing ideas within ethnocratic localism during and after the 2019 Anti-Extradition Movement (Anti-ELAB). Embedded within ethnocratic sentiments are linkages to global reactionary discourses, denouncing a West weakened by progressive politics. Using audiovisual analytic methods, this paper examines textual examples from forum threads, including memes, video clips and discussions, highlighting the affective use of indirect violence. This paper concludes by demonstrating how intra-movement solidarity is weaponised by right-wing facets to silence internal dissent, reinforcing what proves to be an illusory democratic-authoritarian dichotomy