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Replication Data for: The Credibility Crisis in Science
No full textIn The Credibility Crisis in Science, we argue that the most important fraudulent strategy is crucially underappreciated. While data fabrication and manipulation are widely recognized as fraudulent, “tweaks”—the intentional selection of research designs and model specifications based on the results they give—are not. The authors contend that the term “scientific fraud” must include tweaks. Tweakers, like other fraudsters, deceive readers by concealing their manipulation of empirical results and they do so to further their own interests.
We show how easily observational data analyses, experimental designs, and causal models are tweaked in ways that are extremely difficult, often impossible, to detect. As a consequence, the credibility crisis in science is even more severe than both scientists and the public believe.
We argue that conventional strategies to deter, prevent, and detect fraud will not work for tweaks and we put forth two potential solutions: first, a classification system that categorizes data based on its susceptibility to manipulation and the probability of such manipulation being identified, and second, the proposal that journal editors and reviewers, rather than authors, select robustness tests.
Table of Contents:
Part I: Is Science Broken?
1 Scientific Integrity and Its Discontents
2 Fraudsters’ Motives
3 The Tip of the Tip of the Iceberg
4 Causes of Detection
Part II: Researcher Degrees of Freedom
5 Tweaking in Observational Data Analyses
6 Tweaking in Experimental Research Designs
7 Tweaking in Causal Models
Part III: Countering Fraud
8 Deterrence Policies
9 Prevention Plans
10 Detection Strategies
11 Two Steps Forward
12 And One Step Back
Replication package for: "Monopsony and the Wage Effects of Migration"
No full textReplication package for: Amior, Michael and Manning, Alan, "Monopsony and the Wage Effects of Migration", Economic Journal
Latent structure estimation for high-dimensional dependent data via eigenanalysis
Get PDFWith advancements in technology, the collection and storage of high-dimensional data have become increasingly common, necessitating tools to analyze such data effectively. Recovering the latent structure has gained popularity as an approach to dimensionality reduction, as the latent processes typically have lower dimensionality, making them easier to analyze and interpret. This thesis explores methods for uncovering the latent structure in high-dimensional data across three domains. Chapter 2 proposes a novel estimation method for the blind source separation model, as introduced in Bachoc et al. (2020). The new method leverages eigenanalysis of a positive definite matrix constructed from multiple normalized spatial local covariance matrices, enabling the handling of moderately high-dimensional random fields. The consistency of the estimated mixing matrix is established with explicit error rates, even under slowly decaying eigen-gaps. Chapter 3 examines the factor model framework for time series Lam and Yao (2012a), with a focus on estimating the number of latent factors. Traditional methods struggle with varying factor strengths, limiting their applicability. To address this, a non-parametric hypothesis testing procedure is proposed, capable of identifying the correct number of factors even when factor strengths differ. The proof on significance level of the test is provided, and its effectiveness is demonstrated through comparisons with existing methods on both simulated and real-world datasets. Chapter 4 addresses the challenge of electricity load forecasting, starting with Generalized Additive Models (GAM) provided by Électricité de France. The residuals from GAM forecasts is analyzed and modeled to uncover its latent structure, which not only simplify the modeling process but also enhance GAM estimations. Two approaches are explored: latent segmentation using TS-PCA Chang, Guo, and Yao (2018a) and Matrix Time Series Decorrelation Han et al. (2023), and dimensionality reduction with factor models using the procedure developed in Chapter 3. Applied to national and regional electricity load data in France, both methods enhance forecast accuracy, as measured by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
Indigestible, disgusting, and vile: the development, regulation, and reception of ersatz food products in Germany during the First World War
Get PDFErsatz (substitute) food products have long played a part in histories of the German food crisis during the First World War. From war bread, to turnips, to watery sausages, these foods have been used by historians to symbolize the desperation of the food crisis, particularly in the later years of the war, often valuing these foods more as anecdotal material than a phenomenon worth studying in their own right. Who was responsible for developing these wartime substitutes, and what nutritional impact did they have on the diet of German consumers? The historical record suggests that these food products were universally despised, using terms like ‘indigestible’, ‘disgusting’, and ‘vile’, but were these products—as a rule—really inferior to the foods they were replacing? Or did contemporary associations with class, culture, and the natural order influence consumers’ perceptions of these much-maligned goods? Furthermore, how did the introduction of these goods affect the course of government food regulations? On all of these points, the historiography is largely silent. This thesis will address that gap by conducting a dedicated study of the role played by ersatz food products during the war, using previously unexamined primary sources to direct a critical lens onto these fascinating substitutes. Rather than being a mere symbol for deprivation, an empirical analysis of ersatz food products reveals how they helped to sustain the nutritional durability of the German home front, yet also eroded public confidence in the government’s regulatory efforts—simultaneously contributing to the survival of consumers while hastening the collapse of their morale. By addressing the research questions above, this thesis argues that ersatz food products were a symptomatic response of a food system under incredible stress, and that by better understanding these substitutes, we can better understand the complex dynamics of the German food crisis itself
Essays in environmental economics and development economics
Get PDFThis thesis examines how climate-related risks and responses ranging from natural disasters to green transition and public mobilization, shape economic behavior, perceptions, and political outcomes. It highlights how climate risks and social responses shape both market outcomes and politics, with implications for designing effective climate policy. The first chapter examines the economic effects of flooding in Indonesia, focusing on its impact on firm behavior and regional economic variables. Using granular firm-level data and spatial data on historical floods, I estimate the short-run effects of flood events and find that more severe floods significantly reduce aggregate output, hinder business formation, and erode firm-level capital. A model of firm entry under climate risk reveals that these effects are largely driven by perceived flood risk, thereby emphasizing the anticipatory behavior of firms and the importance of flood mitigation infrastructure, such as flood defenses. The second chapter addresses the environmental implications of coal-fired power plants. Combining geocoded survey data from 51 countries with plant-level information, we document that individuals living within 40 km of coal plants are systematically more dissatisfied with local air quality. Employing equivalent variation measure, we show that replacing coal plants with renewable technology is feasible even if the gains from improved air quality are only considered in the benefits calculations. The third chapter explores the political consequences of climate-related protests. Analyzing large-scale protests, such as the Fridays for Future, we find that protests significantly increase climate awareness in the short run, as evidenced by spikes in Google search trends and media coverage. These shifts also translate into increased electoral support for Green parties in Europe and influence political discourse within the UK Parliament
Cash transfers and women’s labour supply: theory and evidence from Brazil
Get PDFWomen’s participation in the labour force has been a powerful driver of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. Today, cash transfer programmes have come to dominate government efforts to reduce poverty. Whilst effective at providing short-term relief, these programmes may also undermine long-term poverty reduction by disincentivising labour supply. To study the direction and magnitude of the impact of cash transfers on labour supply, as well as the underlying mechanisms, I measure the effect of an exogenous increase in Brazil’s main transfer programme on the employment of men and women. I find no effect for men, whereas women increase their labour supply by 7.4% over two years. This is driven by mothers with children of pre-school age, for whom the transfer relaxes childcare constraints, enabling them to join the labour force. Exploring regional disparities, I find that the effect is stronger in areas that are poorer, but that have better availability of local public services. I causally estimate complementarities between cash transfers and local public good provision levering discontinuities on the allocation of public funds to Brazil’s 5570 municipalities. I show that this has potentially important fiscal implications for the long-term costs and benefits of cash transfer programmes. Overall, my paper illustrates that there is no trade-off between short-term relief and long-term poverty reduction. Rather, cash transfers encourage women’s labour force participation, particularly when complementary public goods, such as educational facilities, are available
Psychological factors in welfare and policy design
Get PDFThis thesis investigates the role of psychological factors in the design of optimal policy, focusing on mental health and the social safety net. Around 1 billion people suffer from mental disorders [WHO, 2022], and those with poor mental health are disproportionately likely to live in poverty [Lund et al., 2010]. Mental disorders cause significant disturbances in cognition, emotion regulation, and everyday functioning [Hammar and Årdal, 2009], yet their role in economic policy design remains understudied. Chapters 1 to 3 build on my Job Market Paper, which focuses on whether social assistance effectively reaches people with poor mental health. • Chapter 1 develops a theoretical framework showing how take-up responses to policy separately identify the marginal value of benefits (need) and the cost of barriers. • Chapter 2 presents new empirical facts about mental health and the targeting of social assistance using Dutch administrative data. • Chapter 3 combines the theory and empirics to show that people with poor mental health have a 2× higher need for benefits yet face a 64% higher cost from barriers. I also show that reducing barriers would be twice as effective as increasing benefits. While Chapters 1 to 3 take a revealed preference approach, a question remains: should the planner normatively respect the observed choices of people with poor mental health? Chapter 4 (with Daniel Reck) generalises this idea, tackling the fundamental challenge of behavioural welfare economics: psychological factors can cause inconsistencies, forcing policymakers to take a stand on which choices reflect an individual’s true normative preferences. We show that incorporating normative uncertainty leads to a structured welfare criterion, and explore how the resulting notion of robustness shapes optimal policy in several examples. Throughout the thesis, I argue that understanding psychological mechanisms, and their normative consequences, is essential for designing effective policies
Essays on growth and fiscal policy
Get PDFThis thesis consists of one essay on economic growth and human capital, and two essays on local fiscal policy. In Chapter 1, I raise and test the hypothesis that the effect of human capital on economic growth depends crucially on the concentration of high-skilled labor across firms. First, I causally estimate that new colleges had a positive impact on local economic growth in municipalities with lower concentration of high-skilled labor, but a negative effect in municipalities with higher skill concentration. Second, I isolate the causal effect of changes in local high-skilled labor concentration on local growth. Third, I develop and estimate an endogenous growth model, which quantitatively matches the preceding results and which I use to assess policy counterfactuals. In Chapter 2, I show evidence of novel heterogeneity in local fiscal multipliers. First, I present evidence from the UK of an average local multiplier of 1.69 and 1.71 for services and capital spending, respectively. There are, however, significant inter-council differences in multiplier estimates which are unrelated to variation in local MPCs. I rationalize my results with a model of heterogeneous labor and productivity shocks that impose a psychological toll on workers’ cognitive load capacity. Results show potential gains from removing fiscal misallocation between councils. In Chapter 3, we examine the short-run effects of education expenditures on local income and employment. We estimate fiscal multipliers using city-level exposure to the US Federal Pell Grant Program. An increase in grants by 1 percent of a city’s income raises local income by 2.8% and local employment by 1.9% over the next two years. The higher multiplier is partly driven by Pell grants enabling students to take up student loans. Multipliers are also higher during recessions than in expansions, suggesting that Pell grants can be an effective tool for countercyclical policy
Essays in the political economy of institutional change
No full textThis thesis examines three topics in the political economy of institutional change. I focus on the direction of state development after war and the design of interventions shifting social norms. Chapter 1 studies a transition to democracy, asking whether states and societies can shift social norms. Chapter 2 analyzes the rise of autocracy, examining the type of state that emerges in response to war. Chapter 3 explores how narratives of the past change present politics. I study these questions by combining large and novel datasets with robust research designs for identifying causal relationships. A central aim is to understand the conditions and identify interventions under which persistent social equilibria can be overcome. The first chapter, Shifting Norms and Political Demand: Denazification in postwar Germany, studies whether states and societies can shift social norms. In a major denazification program, millions of Germans were questioned about their political past by courts. The chapter documents how denazification shaped the emerging political landscape in postwar Germany. I leverage sharp variation in denazification across Allied occupation zones, across districts, and within districts. I find that broader denazification reduced the demand for nationalist policies and changed social norms. Differences are driven by mass rather than elite cases and political consequences are observed absent major differences in punishment. The results indicate that the breadth of transitional justice may be more important than its severity. As such, the study has important implications for the design of transitional justice following autocratic rule. The second chapter, Crisis, State Capacity, and the Rise of Autocracy: A Design-based Analysis of the Thirty Years’ War (joint with Matthias Weigand), analyzes whether wars enable autocracy. We examine how the Thirty Years’ War (1618–48), the largest conflict in pre-modern Europe, gave rise to capable autocracies. We use planned troop movements from secret military communications to estimate the impact of town-level war exposure on the growth of fiscal and military capacity and the dismantling of parliaments. During the war, executive power increased to prevent plunder and coordinate military logistics. After the war, rulers used this capacity to consolidate autocratic rule via propaganda and repression. Pre-existing legal institutions acted as a barrier to war-induced autocracy. With parliaments eliminated, militarized absolutist regimes persisted for centuries and provided fewer public goods. Our findings highlight a dynamic trade-off in the concentration of executive power during crises. The third chapter, Mass Media of Remembering: The Role of TV in Coming to Terms with the Past, studies how mass media shapes collective memory and voting behavior, focusing on the broadcast of a Holocaust documentary in West Germany in 1979. I leverage an unexpected disruption in television access caused by right-wing extremist attacks on transmission towers. Due to these attacks, hundreds of thousands of viewers near affected towers were unable to watch the documentary. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare electoral outcomes between neighboring municipalities with and without television access. The results show that access to the documentary reduced the trend of radical-right vote share by 0.1 to 0.23 percentage points. A placebo test based on a failed bombing accounts for strategic targeting and confirms the result
From collapse to crisis: the constitutional standoff in post-Soviet Russia, the role of the United States, and the failure of Russia’s democratic transition
No full textThe goal of my thesis is to investigate the reasons behind the Russian Constitutional Crisis of 1993 and to understand how these events fit into the broader context of the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the emergence of the modern Russian State. Furthermore, this thesis investigates what role, if any, the United States and other Western nations played in the events in Russia. This thesis begins by examining the origins of the Russian Parliament and the establishment of the Constitutional Commission in 1990, and then proceeds to study why efforts to democratise Russia instead resulted in the violence of September 21–October 4, 1993, at the cost of over 100 lives. The author concludes that the Crisis was the result of a combination of complex political factors, but ultimately the outcome of the Crisis served to severely diminish the substantial progress Russia had made between 1990 and 1993 towards a democratic ‘rule of law’ state