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Prediction with Expert Advice for Trading and Hedging on the Foreign Exchange Market
Get PDFIn this thesis, we explore the application of prediction with expert advice algorithms for investing in the Foreign Exchange (FX) market.We introduce a data staging algorithm designed to reconstruct multiple time series databases into a partitioned and regularised database. The Data Aggregation Partition Reduction Algorithm, or DAPRA for short, was designed to solve the practical issue of effective and meaningful visualisation of irregularly sampled time series data.We apply methods of prediction with expert advice to real-world foreign exchange trading data to find effective investment strategies. We build upon the framework of the long-short game, introduced by Vovk and Watkins (1998), and propose modifications aimed at improving the performance with respect to standard portfolio performance indicators.We apply the Weak Aggregating Algorithm (WAA) to find optimal risk management strategies for financial Market Makers (MMs), using hedging strategies as experts. We combine their hedging decisions to reduce portfolio risk and maximise profitability. We develop a variation of the WAA using discounting and evaluate the results on commonly traded FX currency pairs
STIGMA, DEPRESSION AND SELF-EFFICACY: A MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS POPULATION STUDY
Get PDFBackground. Stigma is increasingly recognised as a significant factor contributing to depression in individuals with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). This study aimed to explore the extent to which stigma is associated with depression compared to other biopsychosocial factors and to examine the potential protective role of self-efficacy in this context.Methods. Data were utilised from the Trajectories of Outcome in Neurological Conditions (TONiC) study, a large-scale UK-based study assessing quality of life in people with neurological conditions. A multinomial logistic regression was conducted on a training and validation sample (total n = 4,297) to identify the unique relative risk ratios for different predictors of depression. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was also employed to analyse the associations between stigma, self-efficacy, and depression.Results. The Multinomial Logistic Regression model demonstrated good predictive accuracy (72.6%) and fit the validation data well (CFI = 1.00, TLI = 0.99, RMSEA = .014). The variables contributing the greatest to mild and moderate-severe depression were the London Handicap Scale and the Stigma Scale for Chronic Illness. Self-Efficacy had a strong protective effect. The SEM analysis showed that stigma has a direct but relatively small-to-moderate effect on depression (β = .16, p < .001). Stigma significantly associated with lower self-efficacy (β = -.67, p < .001), which in turn had a strong negative association with depression (β = -.58, p < .001). Discussion. These findings suggest that while stigma directly associates with depression in MS, its more significant role is through reducing self-efficacy, potentially exacerbating depressive symptoms. Interventions aimed at increasing self-efficacy could mitigate the negative association of stigma with mental health. The study underscores the importance of targeted anti-stigma campaigns and the development of self-efficacy interventions to improve the quality of life for individuals with MS.Conclusion. This study highlights the unique contribution of stigma to depression in MS and the potential mediating role of self-efficacy. Future research should focus on longitudinal studies to understand the dynamics of stigma over time and develop effective self-efficacy interventions.<br/
Manuel II Palaeologus' "Prayer to those who are stormtossed or are simply at sea composed from David's Book of Psalms".
Get PDFThe article, written in Greek, is an edition of a hitherto unpublished short prayer composed by Emperor Manuel II Palaeologus (1391-1425), during his sojourn in the West (1400-1403). The prayer is transmitted in two extant manuscripts: Par. gr. 3041, copied by the imperial scribe Theophylaktos Basilikos, and Barb. gr. 219, copied by an anonymous hand that copied also other works for the Emperor. The introduction to the edition is written in the form of a fictitious dialogue between Manuel and Theophylaktos, though based on attested historical evidence
The Locus of Persecution Reconsidered:Risk of Re-Trafficking, Cumulative Harm, and Failure of State Protection
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Mapping Musical Mobilities:Challenging Musical Nationalism Through Mobility and Migration
Get PDFOften, music – particularly classical music – has been viewed in some quarters as a product of particular national cultures, with little regard paid to the ways in which mobile phenomena can contribute to its production, whether in the form of mobile people, objects, or concepts. This paper turns to notions of mobility as a means of exploring how musical cultures can be animated. It explores, too, the possibilities of particular forms of ‘mapping’ as a way to retain, but also rethink, the spatial specificity so emphatically signalled in some musical tradition-claiming, while simultaneously avoiding the excessive valorisation of mobility that can characterise many musical careers as endlessly nomadic or socially detached. We begin by discussing the question of music and nationalism in more detail, particularly as it has been conceived of within musicology, ethnomusicology, and nationalism studies. In so doing, we aim to establish a sense of the national framing and fixing through which (classical) music has hitherto been understood in some contexts. This leads naturally onto an attendant discussion of the mobility of music, in which we will outline some of the nascent material on this topic
Local party members’ views are associated, but not completely congruent, with local constituency opinion
Get PDFDo local political party members reflect the views of voters in their constituencies? Since candidate selection by local party members is the most common form of candidate selection in the UK, it is important to understand local party members’ views, and how those views relate to views in the local area. We investigate the degree to which individual members’ views match local opinion by combining the results of a large-scale survey of party members in the UK with estimates of local opinion created using multilevel regression and post-stratification. We find that individual party members’ views are moderately to strongly associated with local opinion on both left-right and liberty-authority dimensions. Even so, party members are not entirely congruent with opinion in the local area, having opinions which are either to the left or right of voters in their local area, and which are uniformly more liberal than party supporters
Unilateral Stability in Matching Problems
Get PDFThe canonical solution concept used in matching problems is pairwise stability, whose premise is that harmony is disrupted by any two agents intentionally leaving their partners to be with each other. We instead focus on scenarios in which harmony is disrupted merely by a single agent unilaterally initiating contact with a member of a different pair, whether or not his approach is reciprocated. A variety of solution concepts are proposed in which taboos, status, or power systematically limit such initiatives in order to achieve harmony
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