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A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
No full textInternational audienceThe escape from the 'Malthusian trap' is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented
History & Mathematics. Trends and Cycles
No full textInternational audienceThe present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. There is a tendency to study history as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. The contributions to this yearbook present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of global historical, political, economic and demographic processes, as well as their mathematical models. This issue of the yearbook consists of three main sections: (I) Long-Term Trends in Nature and Society; (II) Cyclical Processes in Pre-industrial Societies; (III) Contemporary History and Processes. We hope that this issue of the yearbook will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences
Introduction Big History's Big Potential
No full textInternational audienceBig History has been developing very fast indeed. We are currently observinga ‘Cambrian explosion’ in terms of its popularity and diffusion.Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of severaldozen countries, including China, Korea, the Netherlands, the USA, India,Russia, Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and many more.The International Big History Association (IBHA) is gaining momentumin its projects and membership. Conferences are beginning to be heldregularly (this edited volume has been prepared on the basis of the proceedingsof the International Big History Association Inaugural Conference[see below for details]). Hundreds of researchers are involved instudying and teaching Big History
The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution
No full textInternational audienceIn the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies
THE INFLATIONARY AND DEFLATIONARY TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, OR 'THE JAPANESE DISEASE' IS SPREADING
No full textInternational audienceThe danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, although to a lesser extent, has the signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines the reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts
ORIGINS OF GLOBALIZATION IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE AFROEURASIAN WORLD-SYSTEM HISTORY
No full textInternational audienceThe formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this world-system the continental and supracontinental links became rather developed long before the Great Geographic Discoveries and thus, they could quite be denoted as global (albeit in a somehow limited sense). As some researchers are still inclined to underestimate the scale of those links in the pre-Industrial era, it appears necessary to provide additional empirical support for our statement. It also turns necessary to apply a special methodology (which necessitated the use of the world-system approach). We analyze some versions of periodization of globalization history. We also propose our own periodization of globalization history using as its basis the growing scale of intersocietal links as an indicator of the level of globalization development
Kondratieff Waves in the Global Studies Perspective
No full textInternational audienceThe analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers a historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kon-dratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data , it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World-System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes
O LIMITE PROPOSICIONAL COMO ELEMENTO DE TRANSIÇÃO NO PENSAMENTO DE WITTGENSTEIN
No full textInternational audienceThis paper intends to sustain that, in Wittgenstein, the notion of propositional limit characterises an element of transition between the non-congnitivism, expressed in the Tractatus, and the subsequent philosophy, especially in the Investigations. In this direction, it is possible to point out that the limit of utterability marks the rupture in the analysis between the scientific propositions and the "ethical propositions". Whereas the former have the truth value, that is, they can be true or false, the latter lack of meaning because they cannot be expressed by an ideal notation. For this reason, the scientific discourse, unlike the ordinary moral discourse, expands as we limit the boundaries of language (and, therefore, of thought). This allows us to accept as a conclusion only the existence of elementary propositions that are not analysable anymore. Therefore, it is not possible to formulate moral propositions, but only utter judgements, considering that the values are not supervened qualities or properties of the things. For this reason, the division between fact and value, concerning logic and ethic, is the only possibility for the meaningful language of science to be able to represent realityEste artigo pretende sustentar que, em Wittgenstein, a noção de limite proposicional caracteriza um elemento de transição entre o não cognitivismo expresso no Tractatus e a filosofia posterior, especialmente nas Investigações. Neste sentido, podemos apontar que é o limite da dizibilidade que marca a ruptura na análise entre as proposições científicas e as “proposições éticas”. Enquanto as primeiras possuem valor de verdade, isto é, podem ser verdadeiras ou falsas, as demais carecem de sentido porque não podem ser expressas por uma notação ideal. Por isso, o discurso científico, ao contrário do discurso moral ordinário, expande-se na medida em que limitamos as fronteiras da linguagem (e, portanto, do pensamento). Isso permite que aceitemos como conclusão apenas a existência de proposições elementares, que não são mais analisáveis. Portanto, não é possível formular proposições morais, mas apenas enunciar juízos, uma vez que os valores não são qualidades ou propriedades supervenientes das coisas. Sendo assim, a separação entre fato e valor, no que diz respeito à lógica e à ética, é a única possibilidade para que a linguagem significativa da ciência possa afigurar a realidade
पार्टनर, तुम्हारी पॉलिटिक्स क्या है?
No full textआप’ के दलित-ओबीसी मंत्री ‘जाति’ को किसी विमर्श के काबिल नहीं मानते। वे फुले-आम्बेडकर-लोहियावाद से न सिर्फ अपरिचित हैं बल्कि इस तरह के विमर्श को देश और कथित ‘आम’ आदमी की बेहतरी में बाधा मानते हैं।International audienceThis article was written after Aam Aadmi Party formed the government for the first time in Delhi. The article discusses the concept of social justice of the Aam Aadmi Party. This article concludes that the party does not care about the interests of Dalits, Backwards.यह आलेख आम आदमी पार्टी की दिल्ली में पहली बार सरकार बनने के बाद लिखा गया था। आलेख में आम आदमी पार्टी की सामाजिक न्याय की अवधारणा पर विचार किया गया है। यह लेख बताता है कि पार्टी दलित, पिछड़ों के हितों की परवाह नहीं करती