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The influence of doeling age at first mating on milk production and reproduction characteristics
No full textUtjecaj dobi prvog pripusta na proizvodne pokazatelje je nedovoljno istražen kod koza, a rezultati dosadašnjih istraživanja koji se dotiču ove problematike, nisu dovoljno informativni i dostatni za donošenje zaključaka. Kako bi se dobio što objektivniji odgovor na pitanje „kako dob prvog pripusta utječe na cjeloživotnu proizvodnju mlijeka i jaradi u intenzivnim sustavima proizvodnje mlijeka?“, cilj ovog istraživanja bio je utvrditi u kojoj mjeri dob prvog pripusta utječe na 1) duljinu laktacije (period mužnje); 2) količinu proizvedenog mlijeka, mliječne masti, bjelančevina i laktoze; 3) udio mliječne masti, bjelančevina i laktoze; 4) broj somatskih stanica u mlijeku, 5) broj jaradi u leglu, 6) porodnu masu jaradi i 7) ukupnu masu legla. Pritom su, ovisno o svojstvu, korišteni svi dostupni izvori fenotipske varijabilnosti pomoću odgovarajućih statističkih modela. Istraživanje je provedeno na populaciji uzgojno valjanih koza pasmine alpina (n=12 769) koristeći ukupno 41 645 zapisa za svako analizirano svojstvo. Proizvodnost koza je provođena u skladu sa uputama ICAR – a. Analiza cjeloživotne proizvodnje povedena je na ukupno 9 857 koza i isto toliko fenotipskih zapisa za svako svojstvo (razlika u broju koza u ta dva dijela istraživanja proizlazi iz nepoznatog datuma izlučivanja nekih koza iz proizvodnje, a i činjenice da neke koze u trenutku provedbe istraživanja još nisu bile izlučene). U razdoblju od 235 dana mužnje, koze su prosječno dnevno proizvele 2,5 kg mlijeka sa 3,4 % mliječne masti, 3 % bjelančevina, 4,2 % laktoze i 558 tisuća somatskih stanica (u mL mlijeka). Prosječna veličina legla je bila 1,26 jaradi, individualna porodna masa 3,22 kg, a masa legla 4,12 kg. Prosječni životni vijek koza bio je 70 mjeseci i pritom su prosječno proizvele 1925 kg mlijeka, 64 kg mliječne masti, 58 kg bjelančevina, 81 kg laktoze i 4 jaradi. Dob prvog pripusta u istraživanoj populaciji bila je u rasponu od 5 do 25 mjeseci (prosjek 9). Regresijom fenotipskih podataka na dob prvog pripusta ANCOVA statističkim modelom s ponovljenim mjerenjima utvrđen je smjer i intenzitet utjecaja dobi prvog pripusta na 1) duljinu laktacije, 2) količinu proizvedenog mlijeka, mliječne masti, bjelančevina i laktoze u laktaciji, 3) udio (%) mliječne masti, bjelančevina i laktoze u mlijeku, 4) broj somatskih stanica, 5) veličinu legla, 6) porodnu masu i 7) ukupnu masu legla. Uz manje komparativne razlike, može se zaključiti da je dob prvog pripusta u prvih nekoliko laktacija/jarenja imala pozitivan, a u poznim laktacijama negativan utjecaj na većinu istraživanih svojstava. Izuzetak su bili: udjeli mliječne masti, bjelančevina i laktoze u mlijeku, kod kojih je u pravilu utvrđen obrnuti slijed promjena; te broj somatskih stanica, kod kojih je dob prvog pripusta kroz sve laktacije pozitivno korelirala sa brojem somatskih stanica. Valja napomenuti da su različite skupine svojstava analizirane na jednoj te istoj populaciji, što znatno doprinosi kreiranju potpunije slike kako se istraživani utjecaj odražava na reprodukcijsku i proizvodnu učinkovitost koza. Regresirajući cjeloživotnu proizvodnju pokazatelja mliječnosti i reprodukcije na dob prvog pripusta u okviru ANCOVA analize, procijenjeno je da se prolongiranjem prvog pripusta za godinu dana očekuje skoro jedna laktacija manje (0,72 laktacije), a posljedično tome i gubitci od 0,84 jareta, 336,48 kg mlijeka, 10,92 kg mliječne masti, 10,08 kg bjelančevina, 14,04 kg laktoze. Rezultati regresijskih analiza po rednom broju laktacije (jarenja) uz rezultate koji se odnose na cjeloživotnu proizvodnju (kumulativ individualnih laktacija), zajednički pridonose potpunijem shvaćanju promjena u proizvodnji koje su uvjetovane različitom dobi prvog pripusta (osjemenjivanja). Procijenjeni parametri provedenih regresijskih analiza upućuju na zaključak koji je donekle suprotan dosadašnjim prevalentnim stavovima struke i uzgajivača, utemeljenim na negativnim učincima ranijeg pripusta na proizvodnju u ranijoj životnoj dobi. Naime, predmetno istraživanje rezultiralo je dostatnim brojem znanstveno utemeljenih dokaza da se gubitci u ranijim fazama proizvodnje, a uvjetovani ranijim pripustom, kompenziraju u kasnijim laktacijama, te kako se ranijim pripustom jarica ostvaruju dodatni doprinosi kroz veći broj laktacija u životnom vijeku.The impact of age at first mating (insemination) on production characteristics has not been sufficiently investigated in goats, and the results of previous research tackling this issue are insufficiently informative and conclusive. In order to get some scientifically underpinned clues about the impact of the first mating on the overall production of goats in intensive production systems, the study aimed to determine to what extent the age of the first mating affects 1) the length of lactation (milking period); 2) the milk yield, fat yield, protein yield and lactose yield in the milking period; 3) the fat content, protein content, and lactose content; 4) the somatic cells count, 5) the litter size, 6) the birth weight (individual) and 7) the total litter weight (joint weight of kids). In order to obtain as possible as accurate estimates of the targeted effect, all the available sources of phenotypic variability were used via appropriate statistical model (the effects in the model varied between the examined traits i.e. dependent variables). The study was conducted on a population of Alpine goats (n=12769) using a total of 41645 records for each analysed trait. These goats were subjected to the official recording system of dairy and reproductive traits in accordance with the ICAR guidelines. The analysis of lifetime production was carried out on a total of 9857 goats (the same was the number of phenotypic records for each trait since phenotype in this analysis represented a cumulative of the lactation records, number of kids, and birth weights of all kids in the lifetime of the goats). The discrepancy in the number of goats in the two parts of the study was because of the unknown elimination date of some goats, but also due to some non-culled goats at the time of the downloading data for the analysis. During the period of 235 days of milking, the goats produced 2.5 kg/day of milk on average. The contents of fat, protein, and lactose were 3.4%, 3%, and 4.2%, respectively, and the somatic cell count was 558 000/mL. The average litter size was 1.26 kids, individual birth weight 3.22 kg, and litter weight 4.12 kg. The average lifespan of goats was 70 months, and their average lifetime production was 1925 kg of milk, 64 kg of milk fat, 58 kg of protein, 81 kg of lactose and 4 kids. The age of first mating (insemination) in the researched population ranged from 5 to 25 months (average 9). By regressing the phenotypic data on the age of the first mating using the ANCOVA statistical approach, the impact of age of the first mating was determined on: 1) the length of lactation, 2) the yields of milk, fat, protein, and lactose, 3) the contents of milk fat, protein and lactose, 4) the number of somatic cells, 5) the litter size, 6) the birth weight and 7) the total birth litter weight. Despite some comparative differences in the direction and the magnitude of the effect between the traits, it can be concluded that the effect positively affected the most important traits in the first couple of lactations (parities), but negatively in the later ones. The exceptions were the dry matter components (content), i.e. the content of the fat, protein, and lactose (practically the opposite trend); and the somatic cells count (positively correlated with the magnitude of the effect throughout all lactation orders). It is worthwhile to emphasise here that different groups of traits in this study were analysed on the same population, which significantly contributes to better understanding of the impact of the age of first parity on the reproductive and production efficiency of the goats in the intensive, dairy orientated production system. By regressing the lifetime production of milk yield and reproduction indicators on the age of the first lactation within the framework of the ANCOVA analysis, it was estimated that by postponing first mating by one year (12 months), it is expected loss of almost one full lactation (0.72 lactations less), and consequently a loss of 0.84 kids, 336.48 kg of milk, 10.92 kg of milk fat, 10.08 kg of protein, and 14.04 kg of lactose. The regressions nested within lactations in the first part of the study, along with the regressions performed on the lifetime production (cumulative yields of the animals across the lactations), jointly contribute to a more complete understanding of production and reproduction capabilities of goats predetermined (affected) by the different age of first mating (insemination). The estimated parameters of the performed regression analysis jointly lead to conclusion somewhat contrary to the prevailing attitude of the breeders and some experts in livestock husbandry. Precisely, there is prevailing consideration that later first mattings lead to better performances of dairy animals, and such attitudes have been underpinned by the already known positive effect of age at first mating on production and reproduction in the first lactation(s). However, little attention has been paid so far to the direction and magnitude of the effect in later age and later lactations of the goats. This research provided a sufficient amount of scientifically based evidences that losses in the earlier stages of production affected by earlier mating (insemination) of maiden goats, are compensated in later lactations, and that earlier mating in life additionally contributes to the production through a greater total number of lactations in the productive lifetime of the goats
ANTIAGGREGATORY EFFECT OF PROPOLIS AND SELECTED LAMIACEAE SPECIES
No full textKardiovaskularne bolesti vodeći su uzrok smrti u razvijenim zemljama. Budući da u patološkim procesima koji dovode do kardiovaskularnih događaja sudjeluju trombociti, sve se više istražuju antiagregacijska svojstva tvari prirodnog podrijetla. Pokazalo se da flavonoidi u koncentracijama koje se mogu postići u krvi nakon konzumacije hrane bogate polifenolima mogu utjecati na agregaciju trombocita. Propolis i biljne vrste porodice Lamiaceae obiluju polifenolnim spojevima. Provedena je kemijska karakterizacija 21 uzorka propolisa različitog podrijetla te 24 ekstrakta devet vrsta porodice Lamiaceae (Melissa officinalis, Salvia officinalis, Rosmarinus officinalis, Lavandula angustifolia, Salvia brachyodon, Ocimum basilicum, Origanum vulgare, Calamintha nepeta L., Mentha x piperita) s ciljem identifikacije i kvantifikacije njihovih biološki aktivnih spojeva (spektrofotometrijske metode, HPLC, LC-MS). Antiagregacijski učinak ispitan je impedancijskom agregometrijom u punoj krvi dodatkom ADP-a kao induktora agregacije, a antioksidacijski učinak DPPH testom. Svi ispitivani uzorci pokazuju statistički značajno smanjenje agregacije trombocita u mikromolarnim koncentracijama. Dokazana je korelacija između sadržaja pojedinih polifenolnih sastavnica i biološkog učinka ispitivanih uzoraka (antiagregacijski i antioksidacijski učinak).Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in developed countries. Since platelets are involved in the pathological processes leading to cardiovascular events, the antiplatelet properties of substances of natural origin are increasingly being investigated. It has been shown that flavonoids in concentrations that can be achieved in the blood after eating foods rich in polyphenols can affect platelet aggregation. Propolis and plant species of the Lamiaceae family are rich in polyphenols. Chemical characterization of 21 samples of propolis of various origins and 24 extracts of nine species of the Lamiaceae family (Melissa officinalis, Salvia officinalis, Rosmarinus officinalis, Lavandula angustifolia, Salvia brachyodon, Ocimum basilicum, Origanum vulgare, Calamintha nepeta, Mentha x piperita) was carried out with the aim of identifying and quantifying their biologically active compounds (spectrophotometric methods, HPLC, LC-MS). The antiplatelet effect was investigated by impedance aggregometry in whole blood with the addition of ADP as an inducer of aggregation, and the antioxidant effect by DPPH assay. All tested samples showed a statistically significant decrease in platelet aggregation at micromolar concentrations. A correlation between the content of individual polyphenolic components and the biological effect of the tested samples (antiplatelet and antioxidant effect) has been demonstrated
ELEMENTS OF ORAL LITERATURE AND TRADITIONAL CULTURE IN MIRKO KOVAC'S OPUS
No full textMirko Kovač, crnogorski, hrvatski i srpski pisac, romansijer i esejista, dramski pisac i pisac TV drama, pripada piscima koji su stvarali u drugoj polovini XX vijeka, na prelazu iz XX u XXI vijek, i na prelazu iz jedne književne epohe u drugu, iz moderne u postmodernu.
Grupa pisaca, koji je pripadao i Mirko Kovač, donijela je u književnost novine u pogledu pripovjednih postupaka i svojim djelima označila početak novog književnog razdoblja – postmoderne.
Već prvim svojim romanom Gubilište, objavljenim 1962. godine, u postupcima oblikovanja teksta, Kovač je donio novine. Ovaj je roman, kao i većina Kovačevih djela, građena na biblijskom podtekstu. Simbolika ovog romana je višeznačna a u njemu su, nakon analize pronađeni elementi usmene književnosti i tradicijske kulture. Roman Moja sestra Elida, godine 1965, zajedno sa romanom Borislava Pekića, označiti početak postmoderne na južnoslovenskim prostorima.
Kako bi razumjeli rad koji je pred nama, kao i odgovore na zadatu temu, kratko ćemo se osvrnuti na sadržajnost naslovne teme rada. Napomenut ćemo da smo nakon uvida u stvaralački opus Mirka Kovača, najprije utvrdili da usmena književnost i tradicijska kultura imaju veliki značaj u opusu Mirka Kovača. Također, uočili smo da se Kovačev stvaralački opus može sagledati i kroz različite oblike usmene književnosti i tradicijske kulture, koje smo klasificirali na: religijsku tradiciju (pravoslavna/katolička tradicija – religijski rituali, crkve, blagdani) koja se ogleda u lajtmotivima njegovih romana i pripovijedaka; povijesnu tradicija – istinske i mitske predstave koje postoje o povijesnim zbivanjima u geografskim odredištima te zbivanja u njegovim proznim djelima (najvećim dijelom je to Hercegovina) i narodnu (seoska tradicija) koja je različita ili razlikovna od mjesta do mjesta navedenog geografskog područja.
Tragajući za oblicima tradicijske kulture i usmene književnosti u djelu Mirka Kovača, zaključili smo da je ovaj pisac, u skladu sa odlikama književne epohe kojoj je pripadao, na osnovama Biblije, ali i usmene književnosti i tradicijske kulture, crpio motive i teme za svoja djela.
Mirko Kovač je bio i pisac koji se borio protiv totalitarnog režima jednog vremena, kojeg je u svojim djelima kritizirao. Svoje stavove i kritiku društva, Kovač je iznosio kroz jezik i kroz motivsku strukturu svojih djela. Za prozu Mirka Kovača, možemo kazati da je karakterizira: defabulacija, demitologizacija, intertekstualnost, citatnost, međužanrovi, ukidanje granice između stvarnosti i fikcije. Navedeno je obilježje postmoderne.
Prozu Mirka Kovača odlikuju motivi poput smrti, sna, đavola, zla, predskazanja, fragmenta iz Biblije i drugi. Junaci njegovih djela su likovi čije su sudbine tragične, događaji su često mistični i fantastični. Likovi i događaji se preklapaju iz djela u djelo, pa se stiče utisak da je Mirko Kovač, cijelog života pisao jedan roman.
Ključne riječi: postmoderna, Biblija, citatnost, demitologizacija, mističnost, fantastičnost, tradicijska kultura, usmena književnost.Summary Mirko Kovač, Montenegrin, Croatian, Serbian writer, novelist, essayist, playwright, and TV drama writer, belongs to the authors who created in the second half of the 20th century, at the transition from the 20th to the 21st century, and at the transition from one literary epoch to another - from modernism to postmodernism. The group of writers, to which Mirko Kovač belonged, brought innovations in narrative techniques to literature and marked the beginning of a new literary period - postmodernism-with their work. With his first novel, Gubilište, published in 1962, Kovač introduced new approaches in text formation. This novel, like most of Kovač’s works, is based on a biblical subtext. The symbolism of this novel is multifaceted, and analysis has found elements of oral literature and traditional culture within it. The novel Moja sestra Elida, published in 1965, together with Borislav Pekić’s novel, marked the beginning of postmodernism in the South Slavic regions.
To understand the work at hand, in response to the assigned topic, we will briefly reflect on the content of the main topic of the work. It should be noted that after reviewing the creative opus of Mirko Kovač, we first established that oral literature and traditional culture have significant importance in his work. We also noticed that Kovač’s creative oeuvre can be viewed through various forms of oral literature and traditional culture, which we grouped into: religious tradition (Orthodox/Catholic tradition - religious rituals, churches, holidays) reflected in the light motives of his novels and short stories; historical tradition – true and mythical representations of historical events in geographical locations, as well as events in his prose works (mostly Herzegovina) and folk (village tradition) which varies or differs from place to place in the specified geographical area. In searching for forms of traditional culture and oral literature in the work of Mirko Kovač, we concluded that this writer, in line with the characteristics of the literary epoch to which he belonged, drew motives and themes for his works from the foundations of the Bible, as well as oral literature and traditional culture. Mirko Kovač was also a writer who fought against the totalitarian regime of his time, which he criticized through his works. Kovač expressed his views and criticism of society through the language and the thematic structure of his works. We can say that Mirko Kovač’s prose is characterized by: defabulation, demythologization, intertextuality, citation, inter-genre elements, and the abolition of the boundary between reality and fiction. These are features of postmodernism. Mirko Kovač’s prose is marked by motives such as death, dreams, the devil, evil, premonitions, fragments from the Bible, and others. The protagonists of his works are characters whose fates are tragic, and events are often mystical and fantastic. Characters and events overlap from one work to another, giving the impression that Mirko Kovač wrote one continuous novel throughout his life
Morphological and genetic diversity of populations and chemical composition of fruits of European wild pear (Pyrus pyraster (L.) Burgsd.) and almond-leaved pear (P. spinosa Forssk.) in Croatia
No full textDivlja kruška (Pyrus pyraster (L.) Burgsd.) i krušvina (P. spinosa Forssk.) dvije su najčešće vrste divljih krušaka u Europi. Radi se o listopadnim, često trnovitim, heliofilnim, entomofilnim i zoohornim vrstama. Divlja kruška prirodno je rasprostranjena u južnoj, srednjoj i zapadnoj Europi, gdje raste pojedinačno ili u manjim skupinama uz rubove šuma i na zapuštenim poljoprivrednim površinama. Najčešće je element mješovitih hrastovo-grabovih, termofilnih hrastovih i nizinskih poplavnih šuma. Sdrugestrane, krušvina raste u južnoj Europi, Maloj Aziji i na Bliskom istoku. Kserofitna je vrsta, koja obično raste na ekstremnim, suhim, toplim i degradiranim staništima. Za razliku od divlje kruške koju karakteriziraju okruglasti do jajasti listovi, krušvina ima uske i duguljaste listove koji podsjećaju na one u badema. Plodovi divlje kruške i krušvine su sličnih dimenzija, a najbolje se razlikuju po dužini stapke. Stapke plodova divlje kruške značajno su duže u odnosu na veličinu ploda, dok su u krušvine stapke i plodovi podjednako dugački. Obje vrste su od velikog značaja za bioraznolikost, budući da se mnogi sisavci i pticehranenjihovimplodovima, a privlačei velik broj oprašivača. Unatoč tome, kao i njihovom velikom potencijalu u šumarstvu te u prehrambenoj i farmaceutskoj industriji, ove su vrste do danas rijetko bile predmet znanstvenih istraživanja. Divlja kruška i krušvina važni su sastavni dijelovi vaskularne flore u Hrvatskoj, gdje zauzimaju širok spektar ekoloških ništa. Divlja kruška je vrsta koju većinom nalazimo u kontinentalnom dijelu Hrvatske, dok je rijetka u submediteranskom području. S druge strane, krušvina raste u submediteranskoj i eumediteranskoj zoni duž jadranske obale. S obzirom na značaj ovih vrsta u pogledu biološke raznolikosti te njihove višestruke koristi, u ovoj disertaciji istražena je njihova genetička i fenotipska (morfološka i kemijska) raznolikost na području Hrvatske. Specifični ciljevi istraživanja bili su: (1) utvrditi genetičku i morfološku varijabilnost populacija divlje kruške i krušvine u Hrvatskoj; (2) utvrditi protok gena između prirodnih i kultiviranih populacija; (3) utvrditi prisutnost križanaca divlje kruške i krušvine te krušvine i običnoggloga; (4)testirati zavisnost genetičkei morfološkevarijabilnosti u odnosu naekološku i geografsku varijabilnost; i (5) utvrditi kemijski sastav plodova istraživanih vrsta i testirati njegovu zavisnost u odnosu na genetičku, morfološku i ekološku varijabilnost populacija. Varijabilnost populacija na osnovi morfologije listova istražena je na biljnom materijalu sakupljenom iz 19 populacija divlje kruške i 17 populacija krušvine pri čemu su u svakoj populaciji uzorci listova sakupljeni s deset stabala/grmova. U obje vrste utvrđena je velika varijabilnost morfoloških značajki listova, na unutar i međupopulacijskoj razini. Veći udio ukupne varijabilnosti odnosio se na unutarpopulacijsku, a manji na međupopulacijsku varijabilnost. Morfološke značajke lista koje su se odnosile na njegovu veličinu bile su varijabilnije od značajki povezanih s oblikom lista. Osim toga, pokazalo se da je morfologija listova divlje kruške i krušvine pod značajnim utjecajem okolišnih i geografskih čimbenika. Naime, uzorci izolacije uslijed okolišne udaljenosti i izolacije uslijed geografske udaljenosti pokazali su se statistički značajnima u oba slučaja, što znači da su geografski bliže populacije, kao i one koje rastu u sličnijim ekološkim uvjetima bile i morfološki sličnije. Populacije divlje kruške grupirale su se u dvije skupine, od kojih je prva većim dijelom uključivala jedinke submediteranskih populacija, a druga kontinentalnih. Općenito gledano, populacije submediteranske regije karakterizirali su listovi manjih dimenzija u odnosu na one iz kontinentalne regije. S druge strane, jedinke populacija krušvine grupirale su se u tri skupine, od kojih je prva uključivala stabla iz najsjevernijih i najjužnijih populacija, koje su karakterizirale visoke količine padalina. Navedene populacije u prosjeku su imale veće listove u odnosu na listove druge dvije skupine. Druge dvije skupine značajno su se preklapale, bez jasnog geografskog ili ekološkog uzorka. Osim stabala s tipičnim listovima, za ovu vrstu na području Istre i Dalmacije zabilježene su i jedinke su urezanim lišćem koje potencijalno mogu biti posljedica križanja krušvine s jednoplodničkim glogom (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.). Takav je križanac od ranije poznat u literaturi i nosi naziv ×Pyrocrataegus, no nedovoljno je istražen. Međutim, prisustvo heteroblastije u krušvine otežava interpretaciju ovih rezultata. Kako bi se došlo do konačnog zaključka, potrebna su daljnja istraživanja korištenjem markera DNA posebno dizajniranih za upotrebu u oba roda. Morfološka varijabilnost plodova, kao i njihov kemijski sastav (maseni udjeli vode, proteina, masti, pepela i šećera), istraženi su na temelju materijala sakupljenog s 47 stabala iz devet populacija divlje kruške te 84 stabla/grma iz 10 populacija krušvine. Sve kemijske analize provedene su u skladu s AOAC (Association of Official Analytical Collaboration) protokolima i u duplikatima. Uobje vrste utvrđenaje značajna varijabilnostmorfoloških i kemijskih značajki plodova, posebice na unutarpopulacijskoj razini. Prosječan plod divlje kruške bio je 2,3 cm dug i 2,7 cm širok, sa stapkom od 2,7 cm. Prosječna duljina i širina sjemenki bile su 6,3 i 4,2 mm. Svježi plodovi divlje kruške sadržavali su 70,7 % vode, 4,7 % fruktoze, 2,1 % glukoze, 0,91 % proteina, 0,65 % pepela i 0,25 % masti. S druge strane, plodovi krušvine u prosjeku su bili 2,1 cm dugi i 2,5 cm široki, sa stapkama od 2,0 cm. Sjemenke su u prosjeku bile 6,2 mm duge i 4,4 mm široke. Plodovi su sadržavali 68,9 % vode, 4,0 % glukoze, 3,0 % fruktoze, 1,0 % proteina, 0,74 % pepela i 0,12 % masti. Korelacijska analiza pokazala je da su plodovi obje vrste pod značajnim utjecajem geografskih i okolišnih čimbenika. Naime, plodovi populacija divlje kruške s viših nadmorskih visina bili su u prosjeku manji i sadržavali su više fruktoze, u odnosu na plodove populacija s nižih nadmorskih visina. S druge strane, sjevernije populacije krušvine imale su kraće stapke, tanje sjemenke i niži sadržaj glukoze u odnosu na južnije populacije. Genetička raznolikost populacija, stupanj hibridizacije između divlje kruške i krušvine te protok gena između kultiviranih i divljih krušaka istražen je na materijalu iz 21 populacije divlje kruške, 22 populacije krušvine te 24 kultivara pitome kruške. Za utvrđivanje genetičke raznolikosti korišteno je devet mikrosatelitnih biljega. Rezultati su pokazali visoku i relativno ujednačenu genetičku raznolikost populacija divlje kruške na području Hrvatske kao i da su prirodne populacije divlje kruške u Hrvatskoj genetički raznolikije od onih u središnjoj Europi. S druge strane, genetička raznolikost populacija krušvine bila je nešto niža u odnosu na populacije divlje kruške. Vrijednosti genetičke diferencijacije izračunate između svih parova populacija upućivale su na veću međusobnu diferenciranost populacija divlje kruške u odnosu na one u krušvine. Nadalje, analizom molekularne varijance potvrđene su statistički značajne razlike između istraživanih vrsta, između populacija unutar svake vrste kao i unutar populacija. Analiza strukturiranosti populacija pokazala je da se sve istraživane jedinke uključene u ovo istraživanje mogu optimalno podijeliti u dva klastera; prvi koji je sadržavao jedinke divlje i pitome kruške te drugi koji je sadržavao jedinke krušvine. Ukupno je u istraživanju identificirano 45 križanaca između divlje i pitome kruške, većina od kojih je pronađena u Istri i Slavoniji. Nadalje, u područjima gdje se ekološke niše divlje kruške i krušvine preklapaju, utvrđeno je 14 njihovih križanaca. Zabilježeno je i 10 križanaca između krušvine i pitome kruške. Rezultati Mantel testa pokazali su statistički značajnu korelaciju između genetičkih i geografskih udaljenosti u obje vrste, što znači da su geografski bliže populacije i genetički sličnije. S druge strane, nije utvrđena značajna korelacija između genetičkih i ekoloških udaljenosti. U konačnici, dobiveni rezultati ove disertacije mogu poslužiti kao osnova za osnivanje konzervacijskih jedinica za očuvanje genetičke raznolikosti ovih dviju plemenitih šumskih voćkarica. S obzirom na to da su divlja kruška i krušvina vrste s malim brojem jedinki po populaciji te njihovom malom gustoćom, preporuka je osnivanje in situ konzervacijskih jedinica za njihovo očuvanje. Nadalje, populacije s najvećom genetičkom raznolikošću te one u kojima nije došlo do introgresije genoma pitome kruške u prirodne populacije mogu poslužiti kao temelj za osnivanje tih jedinica. Općenito gledano, važno je očuvati genske resurse divljih vrsta krušaka u Hrvatskoj kako bi se osigurala njihova održivost i potencijalna upotreba u budućim oplemenjivačkim programima. Očuvanje ovih genskih resursa ključno je za dugoročnu održivost i prilagodbu ovih vrsta na promjenjive ekološke uvjete.The European wild pear (Pyrus pyraster (L.) Burgsd.) and almond-leaved pear (P. spinosa Forssk.) are two of the most common wild pear species in Europe. Both species are deciduous, insect-pollinated and animal-dispersed shrubs or trees, known fortheirnotablewood quality and edible fruits. Despite their great ecological significance and economic potential, they remain largely unexplored. Understanding the genetic and phenotypic (morphological and chemical) diversity of these species is crucial for their conservation and management. This study aimed to examine the genetic and phenotypic (leaf and fruit) diversity of wild pears populations in Croatia, the hybridization between them, and the rate of introgression from cultivated pears into natural populations of wild pear species. In addition, the impact of ecological and geographical factors on population structuring was assessed. The results suggest significant morphological variability of leaves and fruits in both species, on inter- and intra-population level. In addition, significant differences in the chemical composition of fruits between populations were found. Correlations between phenotypic diversity and geographical and environmental variables suggested isolation by distance and isolation by environment as key contributors to this variability. Genetic diversity analyses employing nine microsatellite markers revealed notable distinctions between European wild pear and almond-leaved pear, with the former exhibiting higher genetic diversity. Genetic diversity was proved to be influenced mainly by geographical distances between populations. Gene flow from cultivated pear (P. communis L.) into the wild populations was observed, predominantly in European wild pear. In regions of overlappingecological niches, hybrids between the studied wild species were detected. Additionally, along the eastern Adriatic coast, almond-leaved pear individuals with lobed leaves were recorded, potentially representing hybrids between almond-leaved pear and common hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.). However, further research is needed using DNA markers specifically designed for use in both genera to reach a final conclusion. Collectively, these studies illuminate the extensive phenotypic and genetic variability of European wild pear and almond-leaved pear. Finally, the findings of this PhD thesis highlight the importance of preserving the genetic resources of wild pear species to ensure their sustainability and potential use in future breeding efforts
Effect of Moderate Consumption of Red Wine on Serum Hepcidin Concentrations and Other Iron Homeostasis Parameters in Healthy Subjects and Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes
No full textUvod i ciljevi istraživanja: Smanjena ekspresija hepcidina, ključnog regulatora sustavne homeostaze željeza, važan je dio patogeneze nakupljanja željeza u tijelu povezanim s konzumacijom alkohola. Visoka razina željeza predstavlja čimbenik rizika za nastanak šećerne bolesti tipa 2 (ŠBT2) jer utječe na važne sastavnice patogeneze bolesti kao što su inzulinska rezistencija, pojačana glukoneogeneza i smanjeno lučenje inzulina. Više epidemioloških istraživanja je pokazalo kako je umjerena konzumacija crnog vina povezana s nižim rizikom razvoja ŠBT2, pri čemu se naglašava uloga polifenola prisutnih u crnom vinu. Navedeni spojevi pokazuju učinke na ekspresiju hepcidina i apsorpciju željeza suprotne učincima alkohola. S obzirom na opisane fiziološke učinke hepcidina kao i njegovu potencijalnu ulogu u patofiziologiji ŠBT2, glavni cilj istraživanja bio je ispitati učinak umjerene konzumacije crnog vina na serumske koncentracije hepcidina u skupini zdravih ispitanika i u skupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2. Kako je hepcidin najvažniji čimbenik regulacije homeostaze željeza, u ovom istraživanju također je ispitan učinak umjerene konzumacije vina i na druge pokazatelje homeostaze željeza. Budući da je eritropoeza dominantni potrošač željeza kod ljudi, ispitao se učinak umjerene konzumacije crnog vina na glavni eritropoetski put eritropoetin-eritroferon-hepcidin. Ispitanici i postupci: Radi se o prospektivnom, nerandomiziranom, kliničkom istraživanju učinka prehrambenog proizvoda na ispitanike. Bile su određene dvije skupine ispitanika, skupina zdravih ispitanika i skupina ispitanika sa ŠBT2 bez drugih značajnih komorbiditeta i bez anamneze ranije zloporabe alkohola. Ispitanicima je nakon njihovog pristanka nakon uvodnog razdoblja od 2 tjedna bez konzumacije alkoholnih pića određena dnevna konzumacija 300 ml studijskog crnog vina podijeljeno uz 2 dnevna obroka tijekom slijedeća 3 tjedna. Neposredno prije i poslije opisane intervencije svim ispitanicima su urađena antropometrijska mjerenja i uzorkovanje krvi te laboratorijska analiza uzoraka. Analizirane su serumske razine hepcidina, biokemijski pokazatelji statusa željeza, hematološki parametri, eritropoetski parametri te ostali značajni biokemijski parametri. Ukupno je 31 ispitanik ispunio predviđeni protokol istraživanja, od čega 13 zdravih ispitanika te 18 ispitanika sa ŠBT2. Rezultati: Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su kako je trotjedna umjerena konzumacija crnog vina dovela do sniženja serumske koncentracije hepcidina. Statistički značajno smanjenje koncentracije serumskog hepcidina je izmjereno u skupini zdravih ispitanika (30,0 ± 17,3 vs. 21,0 ± 12,1 ng/mL, P = 0,045) i u skupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2 (17,9 [11,9-25,2] vs. 13,2 [8,2-18,3] ng/mL, P = 0,001). Pad serumskih koncentracija hepcidina nije se odrazio na serumsko željezo, njegove razine ostale su nepromijenjene u obje skupine, u skupini zdravih ispitanika (P=0,328) i u skupini ispitanika sa ŠB (P=0,177). Drugi značajni pokazatelji povezani sa željezom ostali su uglavnom nepromijenjeni nakon intervencije, osim statistički značajnog pada razine feritina u skupini zdravih ispitanika (173,0 [126,4-259,8] vs. 118,0 [90,5-232,6] ng/mL, P = 0.017). Smanjenje hepcidina bilo je popraćeno povećanjem razine eritropoetina (10,6 [7,7-12,1] vs. 12,5 [10,2-14,1] mlU/ml, P = 0,001) u skupini zdravih ispitanika te (7,6 [6,4-9,4] vs. 8,9 [8,4-11,1] mlU/ml, P = 0,024) u skupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2, dok je povećanje eritroferona doseglo statističku značajnost samo u skupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2 (0,044 ± 0,075 vs. 0,12 ± 0,12 ng/mL, P = 0,028). Veličina i smjer promjena u razinama EPO, ERFE i hepcidina kao odgovor na intervenciju s vinom nisu se razlikovala između skupina. U konačnici, primijećeno je statistički značajno povećanje RDW u obje ispitivane skupine, u skupini zdravih ispitanika (13,0 ± 0,5 vs. 13,2 ± 0,5 %, P = 0,013) te u skupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2 (13,5 ± 0,4 vs. 13,6 ± 0,5 %, P = 0,033) uz značajno povećanje broja retikulocita (60 ± 16 vs. 70 ± 15x109, P = 0,005) uskupini ispitanika sa ŠBT2. Zaključak: Rezultati dobiveni ovim istraživanjem pokazuju kako promijenjena kinetika hepcidina, eritropoetina i eritroferona uz utvrđene promjene eritrocitnih parametara (RDW, retikulociti) ukazuje na aktivaciju puta eritropoetin-eritroferon-hepcidin što se može objasniti učinkom provedene intervencije, trotjedne umjerene konzumacije crnog vina. Ovo istraživanje ukazuje na novi biološki učinak vina koji bi mogao biti važan u stanjima i bolestima u podlozi kojih je poremećaj homeostaze željeza i funkcije hepcidina.Background and aim: Reduced expression of hepcidin, a key regulator of systemic iron homeostasis, is an important element in the pathogenesis of iron accumulation in the body associated with alcohol consumption. High levels of iron are a risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as it affects important components of the pathogenesis of the disease such as insulin resistance, increased gluconeogenesis and reduced insulin secretion. Several epidemiological studies have shown that moderate consumption of red wine is associated with a lower risk of developing T2DM, indicating potential role of the polyphenols present in red wine. These compounds exhibit effects on hepcidin expression and iron absorption opposite to those of alcohol. Given the described physiological effects of hepcidin as well as its potential role in the pathophysiology of T2DM, the main objective of the study was to examine the effect of moderate consumption of red wine on serum concentrations of hepcidin in the group of healthy subjects and in the group of subjects with T2DM. As hepcidin is the most important factor in the regulation of iron homeostasis, this study also examined the effect of moderate wine consumption on other indicators of iron balance. Since erythropoiesis is the main iron consumer in humans, the study examined how moderate red wine consumption affected the main erythropoietic pathway: erythropoietin-erythroferrone-hepcidin. Subjects and methods: This was a prospective, non-randomized, clinical study of the effect of a food product. Two groups of participants were established, a group of healthy subjects and a group of subjects with T2DM with no other significant comorbidities and without a history of previous alcohol abuse. After a drive-in period of 2 weeks, in which consumption of any alcoholic beverage was prohibited, subjects were instructed to drink 300 mL of red wine daily, split between lunch and dinner and consumed with meals, for 3 weeks. Immediately before and after the intervention, every participant underwent anthropometric measurements and blood sampling, as well as laboratory analysis of samples. Analyzed were serum levels of hepcidin, biochemical markers of iron status, hematological parameters, erythropoietic parameters, and other important biochemical markers. A total of 31 subjects completed the study protocol, of which 13 were healthy subjects and 18 subjects were with T2DM. Results: The results of the study showed that three weeks of moderate consumption of red wine led to a decrease in serum hepcidin concentration in both the group of healthy subjects (30,0 ± 17,3 vs. 21,0 ± 12,1 ng/mL, P = 0,045) and in the group of subjects with T2DM (17,9 [11,9- 25,2] vs. 13,2 [8,2-18,3] ng/mL, P = 0,001). The decrease in serum hepcidin concentrations was not reflected in serum iron as its levels remained unchanged in both groups (healthy: P=0.328; diabetics: P=0.177). Other iron-related indicators also remained largely unchanged after the intervention, except for a statistically significant decrease in ferritin levels in the group of healthy subjects (173,0 [126,4-259,8] vs. 118,0 [90,5-232,6] ng/mL, P = 0.017). The decrease in hepcidin was accompanied by an increase in the level of erythropoietin in both groups, in the group of healthy subjects (10,6 [7,7-12,1] vs. 12,5 [10,2-14,1] mlU/ml, P = 0,001) and (7,6 [6,4-9,4] vs. 8,9 [8,4-11,1] mlU/ml, P = 0,024) in the group of subjects with T2DM, while the increase in erythroferrone reached statistical significance only in the group of subjects with T2DM (0,044 ± 0,075 vs. 0,12 ± 0,12 ng/mL, P = 0,028). The magnitude and direction of change in the levels of EPO, ERFE and hepcidin in response to the wine intervention did not differ between groups. Finally, a statistically significant increase in RDW was observed in both study groups, in the group of healthy subjects (13,0 ± 0,5 vs. 13,2 ± 0,5 %, P = 0,013) and (13,5 ± 0,4 vs. 13,6 ± 0,5 %, P = 0,033) in the group of subjects with T2DM with increase in the reticulocytes count (60 ± 16 vs. 70 ± 15x109, P = 0,005) in the T2DM group. Conclusion: Our results indicate activation of the erythropoietin-erythroferrone-hepcidin pathway by moderate red wine consumption for 3 weeks. As an indicator of erythropoietic response to the activation of erythropoietin-erythroferrone-hepcidin pathway two significant increases were observed: of the red cell distribution width in both groups, and of the reticulocyte count in the T2DM group. This study reveals a novel biological effect of wine that may be important in conditions influencing iron homeostasis and functions of hepcidin in general
Cultural aspects of public events on the island of Rab from the end of the 18th until the beginning of the 20th century
No full textU ovome se radu na temelju arhivskih zapisa i dokumenata razmatraju javne manifestacije koje su se odvijale na otoku Rabu u razdoblju od 1797. godine do prvih desetljeća 20. stoljeća. Kao reprezentacije kolektivnog identiteta, promatraju se kao svojevrstan narativ o lokalnoj, rapskoj zajednici i njezinoj kulturi. S obzirom na motiv organiziranja, manifestacije se dijeli u nekoliko skupina. Najbrojnije su vjerske svečanosti. Organiziraju ih članovi Katoličke Crkve, slijede rimokatoličku liturgiju ili pak slave posebne vjerničke prilike. Političke proslave organiziraju nositelji vlasti, a njima se komemoriraju značajni trenutci političke prošlosti lokalne, etničke, nacionalne i/ili državne zajednice. Narodne zabave obuhvaćaju svečane prilike spontano ili planski organizirane u svrhu veselja i razbibrige cjelokupnog stanovništva. Sve te redovito ili izvanredno održavane manifestacije sudjelovale su u prijenosu kolektivnoga pamćenja. Bile su mjesta okupljanja na kojima je zajednica uspostavljala društvene odnose, reprezentirala određene vrijednosti i nazore te svjedočila vlastitu pripadnost. Na taj se način tijekom brojnih mijena, odnosno novih društveno-političkih i administrativnih okolnosti koje su zahvatile otok u razdoblju 19. i 20. stoljeća, javnim svečanostima i manifestacijama nastavljao, izražavao, prenosio, ali i proizvodio te izgrađivao sasvim nov kulturni identitet rapske zajednice.The period from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century in European and Croatian history is characterized by significant social and political upheavals, conflicts, and political changes resulting from the mutual balancing of forces and the confrontation of the great European powers. Significant were the internal turmoil and political changes in the Habsburg Monarchy itself, and on its edge, in Dalmatia, these processes were also felt, including the island of Rab. After centuries of belonging to the Republic of Venice, where the islanders lived within a relatively stable and established social order and state system, with the fall of Venice, in Campoformi, the island of Rab was peacefully assigned to the Austrian Empire as part of the province of Dalmatia. Already in the first decades of the 19th century, there were many socio-political changes. After a short period under Austrian rule, Rab became part of several states (Napoleon's Kingdom of Italy, then the Illyrian provinces, and again the Austrian Empire). Accordingly, the centers of governance (Milan, Ljubljana, Trieste, Zadar, and Vienna), political arrangements, administrative structures, and legal and administrative regulations are changing. Consequently, the previous social hierarchy is being destroyed. Equally, the cultural climate is changing, as are the attitudes and opinions within the Rab community. These changes are primarily reflected in the cultural identity of the community itself. The island's entry into the French Empire reorganized its territorial and politicaladministrative organization and management structure. The new laws abolish the hitherto immanent and unquestionable nobility of island councilors and even prohibit their association in the governing Great Council. The civil rights of the entire population are equalized, and there are no longer privileged social classes. Representatives of the rural population also get the right to participate in the newly established administration of the island. The changes significantly affect the religious life of the islanders. Almost overnight, Napoleon's decree abolished significant lay associations - brotherhoods, which until then were the bearers of cultural, social, spiritual and charitable life on the island and provided a common spiritual meaning and security of life to its numerous members. Numerous privileges of the Catholic Church are abolished, the method of their financing is changed, and church property is looted. Some monasteries are closed, and a ban on the ordination of new Glagolitic priests has been announced. The religious calendar is also experiencing revolutionary changes as many traditional holidays with accompanying vigils are being canceled in order to encourage the population to work. All of this creates great unrest and insecurity among the islanders, as evidenced in Rab's chronicles and various archival documents. Despite the population's expectations, the Austrian Empire did not abolish the essential legal innovations of the French administration, but it continued with reforms. After almost thirteen centuries of continuous activity, in 1828, the Diocese of Rab, one of the oldest dioceses in the Croatian historical area, was abolished due to these reforms. With the abolition of the diocese subordinate to the Zadar archdiocese, the island of Rab begins to be connected to the northern ones instead of the previous southern regions, and the center of church administration is moved from Dalmatia to Gorica. In the reform of the municipal administration, thousand-year-old Rab properties are separated from Rab's jurisdiction. Lun and Novalja are administratively attached to Pag, and during the first half of the 19th century, the town/island of Pag became superior to Rab. During a sixteen-year period, the inhabitants of Rab were subjected to magistrates centered in Pag. All political changes significantly affect the daily life of the Rab community. The pressure of new socio-political circumstances, especially new laws, led to the collapse and significant changes in their activity patterns. The perception of the selfidentity of the 19th -century Rab man is reconstructed under new, changed features. In the changed circumstances, public events as collective rituals and community representation of the former Rab commune and then the Rab municipality, participate in the transfer of collective memory and assume one of the prominent roles in continuing but also building an entirely new identity of the island of Rab and its population. Based on archival documents (stored primarily in the archives of the parish of Rab, the archives of the monastery of St. Bernardine of Siena in Kampor, and the State Archives in Rijeka) consisting of letters, chronicles, statutes, minutes, liturgies, mass announcements, sermons, hymnals, proclamations, decisions, notices, reports, lists, accounts, as well as private diary entries and narrations and photographs, this paper describes, reconstructs and critically covers public events and ceremonial rituals as complex social practices in the Rab community in the period after the abolition of the nobility and the diocese, i.e. in the period from the end of the 18th to the first decades of the 20th century. After reviewing all regular or exceptional events on the island of Rab, their elements are analyzed and described, especially the records created as part of the festivities, leading to or reacting to them. In doing so, a modern approach to culturalhistorical, philological, and cultural anthropological science is used. Different aspects of these events are presented using cultural anthropology. Based on public events, the transmission of collective memory is considered, as well as the construction of the cultural identity of the Rab community in the same period. Events (collective rituals of the community) represent collective identity and are thus viewed in this paper as a narrative about the local Rab community and its culture. Of particular interest are the data on the susceptibility to changes in the rules, regulations, and protocols of the events themselves, which occur due to the shift in the countries to which the island belongs. Abolishing or banning certain events due to the aforementioned socio-political circumstances is also considered. Also, the research deals with the observation, description, and critical processing of new events, that is, those established in new socio-political circumstances. Events are divided into three major groups according to the motive of their organization, namely religious ceremonies, political celebrations, and folk parties. Religious festivities occur during certain religious holidays or extraordinary religious occasions and include celebrations of Catholic traditions and rituals, given that almost all Rab believers were Catholics. The Catholic clergy or associations of believers organized these most numerous events. Based on the records created before, during or after the event, the following religious ceremonies are analyzed in particular: the celebration of Sunday, the ordination of new priests, the folk missions (holy missions), ceremonies during Lent and Easter, Christmas caroling and customs, the Feast of Corpus Christi, Marian festivities (Križi1 , The Assumption of Mary, The Birth of the Virgin Mary), processions, the days of St. Christopher, the days of the patron saints of Rab parishes, the Feast of the Holy Weeping Cross, holidays of St. Joseph, St. Marin, St. Mark, St. Jerome and St. Anthony, prayer ceremonies for the church leaders (popes), ceremonies of brotherhoods, crusaders and other religious associations, and the celebration of the Holy or Jubilee year (1933). At political ceremonies and celebrations, people gather to celebrate national holidays or commemorate moments from the community's political past, both local and broader – ethnic, national, and/or state. Their initiators and organizers were the holders of power, that is, the island's administration, both on their own initiative and by order of higher authorities. Based on various records, the paper examines the following political events: celebrations during the change of government and the arrival of new administration, celebrations of the glorification of the French conquerors, celebrations during the second Austrian rule, public events during which national consciousness is expressed (the anniversary of the Battle of Vis, the anniversary of the death of P. Zrinski and F. K. Frankopan, the activities of the Hrvatski Sokol and Jugoslavenski Sokol societies), the reception of famous personalities during their visit to the island (Austrian Archduke Franz Karl, Emperor Franz Joseph I in 1875, Archduke Salvator of Austria, Yugoslav Queen Maria Karađorđević, protocol for the welcoming of King Alexander I Karađorđević in 1925, British King Edward VIII), celebrations during the Italian occupation of the island and political events organized on Rab in the South Slavic communities (celebration of the liberation from the Italian occupation, the anniversary of unification into the Yugoslav state, celebration of the ruling royal dynasty, organized destruction of monuments of previous states, political rallies of the H(R)SS with the guest appearance of Stjepan Radić, the celebration of the thousandth anniversary of the Kingdom of Croatia (1925), the celebration of the hundredth anniversary of Lijepa naša and the Croatian national revival). Folk parties, along with religious and political ones, are the third type of public events discussed in more detail in this paper. These are traditional and/or informal customs of gathering and celebration organized to entertain and cheer up the entire 1 Meaning 'crosses' in Croatian. island population, either spontaneously or planned. The paper examines the festive folk costume as well as the hairstyles of the rural population, the singing of folk songs, the tanac dance (šutanje) alongside the folk instrument called mih, carnival dances and processions (beli maškari) during the carnival. With the development of tourism, folk entertainment in considerable measure became cultural and tourist events, so in the first half of the 20th century, many European orchestras, opera singers and illusionists performed on Rab, and the newly-founded societies such as the Red Cross, the Adriatic Guard, the Civil Music and Sokol organized their own shows. Apart from the "external" elements of the events, the inner meanings invisible to the naked eye gave whole meaning to the festivities. According to them, religious, political, and/or universal public festivities were witnesses of the islanders' affiliation and commitment to particular views, beliefs, and "higher" goals. Public ceremonies are carriers of the collective memory of the Rab community, that is, the places where that community gathered. Events transfer knowledge and experience accumulated for generations. In them, the community transmits and (re)presents specific values and, by establishing social relations, proves its own sense of belonging. In this way, the community constantly creates, secures, and reproduces its cultural identity through public ceremonies. By analyzing the records of the events, this paper consequently shows how Rab's society changed during the researched period, more precisely, its cultural identity. While at the end of the 18th century, it functioned as an old medieval communal society, throughout the 19th century (thanks mainly to tourism and better transport connections, as well as broader provincial, national, and European trends) and even more so in the first half of the 20th century, forms of a new civil society develop on the island of Rab. The changes slowly affected the rural population as well. The new form of events and entertainment of the first half of the 20th century, especially between the two world wars, reflects the new, changed identity of the modern community in Rab. In conclusion, it can be said that from the end of the 18th century to the first decades of the 20th century, the people of Rab appropriately marked and celebrated significant socio-political events, as well as those related to religious and church life, participating in specific political protocols, various religious ceremonies or folk parties. The public events, as collective solemn rites, ceremonies and celebrations, were the stronghold on which the cultural memory of that community was transmitted. They acted as carriers of the meaning and values of its members and were extremely important for its (re)presentation. They testified to the membership of the members of that community, their views, and established social relations. During all the sociopolitical changes and new circumstances in which the island of Rab found itself, the cultural identity of the Rab community was expressed, transmitted, and produced through ceremonies
Optimisation of coagulation factor IX purification from human plasma
No full textTradicionalne metode proizvodnje terapeutskih proteina često u upstream procesu uključuju
uzgoj staničnih linija, sakupljanje stanica, staničnu lizu, precipitaciju proteina, filtraciju i druge
korake. U downstream procesima, procesima pročišćavanja terapeutskih proteina, koristi se
kromatografija. Ključan korak optimizacije procesa čišćenja terapeutskih proteina iz
kompleksnih smjesa, bila bi implementacija kromatografskih nosača na koje se mogu direktno
primjeniti uzorci kompleksnih karakteristika, bez potrebe za dodatnom obradom i/ili
predrazrijeđivanjem uzorka. U ovom radu to je demonstrirano na primjeru pročišćavanja
koagulacijskog faktora IX IZ nerazrijeđene ljudske plazme sa odstranjenim krioprecipitatom.
U tradicionalnom postupku čiščenja faktora IX, uzorak plazme se razrjeđuje, nakon čega
slijede dva koraka kromatografije ionske izmjene. Kao posljednji korak koristi se afinitetna
kromatografija na nosaču sa heparinskim ligandom životinjskog porijekla. Rezultati ovog
istraživanja pokazuju da je na monolitne polimetakrilatne kromatografske nosače moguće
direktno nanositi kompleksne biološke uzorke, a da pritom ne dolazi do neželjenih
biokemijskih i biofizikalnih promjena ljudske plazme. To svojstvo monolitnih
polimetarkrilatnih nosača iskorišteno je za pročišćavanje koagulacijskog faktora IX direktno iz
plazme sa odstranjenim krioprecipitatom na DEAE kationskim izmjenjivačima. Također,
utvrđeno je da se kao alternativa kromatografskim nosačima sa imobiliziranim heparinskim
ligandom, u daljnjem pročišćavanju faktora IX mogu upotrijebiti kromatografski nosači sa
kovalentno vezanim sulfatnim skupinama. Implementacija prethodna dva koraka predstavlja
osnovu za novi (semi)kontinuirani proces proizvodnje u svrhu čišćenja i izolacije terapijskog
pripravka koagulacijskog faktora IX.Traditional methods used in the upstream production of therapeutic proteins often include
cell lines, cell harvesting and lysis, protein precipitation, filtration, and other steps.
Chromatography is usually used in the downstream processes. A key step towards optimizing
the process of therapeutic proteins purification from complex mixtures, would be the
implementation of chromatographic supports to which samples with complex characteristics
can be directly applied, without the need for additional processing and/or pre-dilution of the
sample. Using the example of undiluted human plasma, it was demonstrated that it is possible
to directly apply complex biological materials to monolithic polymethacrylate
chromatographic supports, without unwanted biochemical and biophysical changes in the
biological material. This property of monolithic polymethacrylate supports was used to purify
coagulation factor IX directly from plasma with cryoprecipitate removed. In the traditional
purification process of factor IX, the last step is affinity chromatography on a support with a
heparin ligand of animal origin. In our experiments, it was established that as an alternative
to chromatographic carriers with immobilized heparin ligand, chromatographic carriers with
covalently bound sulfate groups can be used. The implementation of the previous two steps
represents the basis for a new (semi)continuous production process for the purpose of
cleaning and isolating the therapeutic preparation of coagulation factor IX
Development of a bioanalytical method for the determination of cyclin D dependent kinase 4 and 6 inhibitors and other drugs in therapeutic combinations for HR+/HER2− breast cancer treatment
No full textRak dojke, kao jedan od najčešće dijagnosticiranih tumora u svijetu, velik je javnozdravstveni problem. Liječenje se nastoji unaprijediti razvojem novih lijekova, ali i personaliziranim pristupom postojećoj terapiji s obzirom na specifične karakteristike pacijentica kroz postupak terapijskog praćenja lijekova (engl. therapeutic drug monitoring, TDM). Temeljni preduvjeti TDM-u su provedena istraživanja farmakokinetičkih parametara u ciljanoj populaciji te povezanosti doze lijeka, njegove koncentracije u plazmi ili drugom tkivu i učinka ili toksičnosti. Za sve navedeno potrebna je prikladna, selektivna i osjetljiva bioanalitička metoda. U ovom doktorskom radu proveden je razvoj uvjeta pripreme uzorka ljudske plazme, kromatografskog razdvajanja i detekcije šest lijekova – kandidata za TDM: inhibitora o ciklinu D ovisnih kinaza 4 i 6 (CDK4/6) palbocikliba, ribocikliba, abemacikliba, inhibitora aromataze anastrozola i letrozola te selektivnog degradatora estrogenskih receptora fulvestranta. Ispitana su i optimizirana četiri različita pristupa pripremi složenog biološkog uzorka za analizu: taloženje proteina, disperzivna tekućinska mikroekstrakcija, ekstrakcija na čvrstoj fazi i pročišćavanje uklanjanjem fosfolipida. Razvijene su i validirane četiri nove kromatografske metode za razdvajanje lijekova od interesa primjenom fenilne i bifenilne stacionarne faze na različitim kromatografskim sustavima. Evaluacija pročišćavanja uzorka plazme od apsorbirajućih interferencija provedena je robusnim detektorom niza dioda i detektorom fluorescencije, dok su klinički relevantni linearni rasponi i praćenje zaostalih plazmatskih fosfolipida postignuti osjetljivim spektrometrima masa s analizatorom kvadrupola i vremena leta ili trostrukog kvadrupola. Provedena je validacija optimiziranih metoda u skladu s međunarodno prihvaćenim smjernicama, kao i unakrsna validacija naprednijih metoda pročišćavanja na istom kromatografskom sustavu i setu realnih uzoraka pacijentica. Ekološka i ekonomska svojstva razvijenih metoda vrednovana su primjenom Red-Green-Blue-12 (RGB-12), Analytical Greenness Metric (AGREE, AGREEprep) i Blue Applicability Grade Index (BAGI) alata. Naposlijetku, sve validirane metode su uspješno primijenjene za određivanje koncentracija te procjenu farmakokinetičkih parametara lijekova od interesa u stvarnim uzorcima pacijentica. Time je kao rezultat ovog doktorskog istraživanja stvorena potrebna bioanalitička podloga, kao i demonstrirana njena praktična valjanost za implementaciju u kliničkoj praksi u svrhu provođenja daljnjih ispitivanja TDM-a šest lijekova od interesa radi poboljšanja skrbi i terapijskih ishoda za pacijentice s rakom dojke.Breast cancer, as one of the most diagnosed tumours in the world, presents a significant public health issue. Treatment options are being expanded with the development of new drugs and the personalisation of existing therapies based on patient-specific characteristics through therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). The main prerequisites for TDM include gaining insight into pharmacokinetic parameters in the target population and establishing correlations between drug dose, its plasma or tissue concentration, and therapeutic or toxic effects. A selective and sensitive bioanalytical method is key to achieving these objectives. In this doctoral thesis the development of human plasma sample preparation conditions, chromatographic separation, and detection were performed for six drugs – candidates for TDM: cyclin D dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors palbociclib, ribociclib, and abemaciclib, aromatase inhibitors anastrozole and letrozole, and the selective estrogen receptor degrader fulvestrant. Four different approaches for the preanalytical preparation of complex biological samples were tested and optimised: protein precipitation, dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction, solid-phase extraction and phospholipid removal. Additionally, four chromatographic methods for analyte separation on phenyl and biphenyl stationary phases were developed and validated using different chromatographic systems. Plasma sample cleanup from absorbing interferences was evaluated using robust diode-array and fluorescence detectors, while clinically relevant linear ranges and monitoring of leftover plasma phospholipids were achieved using sensitive mass spectrometers with quadrupole-time-of-flight or triple-quadrupole mass analysers. Method validation was conducted in accordance with internationally accepted guidelines, and cross-validation of advanced sample preparation methods was performed on the same chromatographic system with a set of real patient samples. The ecological and economic properties of the methods were assessed using Red-Green-Blue-12 (RGB-12), Analytical Greenness Metric (AGREE, AGREEprep) and Blue Applicability Grade Index (BAGI) tools. Finally, all validated methods were successfully applied to quantify the drugs of interest and estimate their pharmacokinetic parameters in real patient samples. As the main result of this doctoral research, the necessary bioanalytical foundation has been established and its practical feasibility for implementation in the clinical practice has been demonstrated, with the aim of facilitating further research on TDM for the drugs of interest, ultimately improving patient care and treatment outcomes for breast cancer patients
Influence of pre-fermentation heating and maceration time on chemical composition, sensory properties, and concentration of bioactive compounds in ‘Teran’ wines (Vitis Vinifera L.)
No full textSastav vina predmet je brojnih istraživanja, ponajviše zbog utjecaja fenolnih i aromatskih spojeva na senzorna svojstva vina čiju je koncentraciju moguće znatno modificirati primjenom različitih vinifikacijskih tehnologija. Međutim, uz utjecaj na kvalitativna svojstva vina, a s obzirom na suvremene trendove istraživanja vina koja se temelje na proučavanju bioaktivnih spojeva koji blagotvorno djeluju na ljudsko zdravlje cilj ovog istraživanja bio je i pridonijeti spoznaji o vrijednosti autohtone sorte ‘Teran’ koja je nedovoljno istražena u tom smislu. S obzirom da su bioaktivni spojevi često prisutni u vrlo niskim koncentracijama, pojavio se interes za pronalaskom tehnologija koje će povećati njihovu ekstrakciju, ali u isto vrijeme i pozitivno utjecati na aromatski profil vina te očuvati ili čak poboljšati ključne parametre senzorne kvalitete vina. Stoga je glavni cilj ovog istraživanja bio ispitati utjecaj različitih vinifikacijskih tehnologija na kemijski sastav, senzorna svojstva vina i koncentraciju bioaktivnih spojeva u vinima sorte ‘Teran’ (Vitis vinifera L.) kroz identifikaciju i kvantifikaciju fenolnih spojeva, hlapljivih spojeva arome, vitamina C i vitamina B skupine, minerala (makro- i mikroelemenata) te kroz određivanje antioksidacijskog potencijala i senzornih svojstava vina. Pokus je obuhvaćao sljedeće tretmane: kontrola - maceracija u trajanju od 7 dana - TM7 (S), produljena maceracija u trajanju od 10 dana - TM10 (S), produljena postfermentacijska maceracija u trajanju od 21 dan - TM21 (S) te predfermentacijski tretman zagrijavanja u trajanju od 48 sati na 45 °C nakon čega je uslijedila maceracija u ukupnom trajanju od 10 dana - TPHT (S). Istraživan je i utjecaj dozrijevanja vina svih prethodno navedenih tretmana u drvenim hrastovim bačvama u trajanju od šest mjeseci TM7 (Z), TM10 (Z), TM21 (Z), TPHT (Z). Osnovne fizikalno-kemijske analize provedene su prema standardnim metodama O.I.V.-a. Pojedinačni fenolni spojevi analizirani su tekućinskom kromatografijom visoke djelotvornosti (HPLC). Ukupni fenoli te ukupni i slobodni antocijani određeni su spektrofotometrijski. Antioksidacijska aktivnost određena je spektrofotometrijski pomoću FRAP i ORAC testova. Vitamin C i vitamini B skupine analizirani su tekućinskom kromatografijom visoke djelotvornosti. Multielementarnom metodom određivanja elemenata (ICP-OES) određena je koncentracija makro- i mikroelemenata. Hlapljivi spojevi arome izolirani su iz uzoraka vina mikroekstrakcijom na čvrstoj fazi pomoću SPME vlakna, a za određivanje je korištena metoda plinske kromatografije (GC-MS). Uzorci vina ocijenjeni su O.I.V. metodom od 100 bodova te kvantitativnom deskriptivnom senzornom analizom. Rezultati ovog istraživanja pokazali su da su predfermentacijski tretman zagrijavanja masulja - TPHT (S) i produljena postfermentacijska maceracija - TM21 (S) značajno utjecali na povećanje koncentracije hidroksibenzojevih kiselina i ukupnih fenola te vrijednosti antioksidacijskog kapaciteta. Tretman TPHT (S) utjecao je i na porast koncentracija hidroksicimetnih kiselina i mikroelemenata dok je tretman TM21 (S) u vinu ‘Teran’ povećao sadržaj flavan-3-ola, stilbena, slobodnih i ukupnih antocijana, vitamina B kompleksa i makroelemenata. Vina navedenih tretmana ocijenjena su višim ocjenama za senzornu kvalitetu vina, svrstana su u kategoriju vrhunskih vina i opisana višim intenzitetima pozitivnih senzornih svojstava. Dozrijevanje vina je značajno utjecalo na povećanje koncentracije slobodnih hlapljivih spojeva arome, dok su bioaktivni spojevi bili manje stabilni te su se koncentracije dozrijevanjem većinom smanjivale. Tretman dozrijevanja vina značajno je utjecao na senzornu kakvoću vina te su sva vina nakon dozrijevanja bila okusno punija s manje izraženom kiselosti, astringencijom i gorčinom. Dobiveni rezultati ovog istraživanja pridonijeli su definiranju utjecaja predfermentacijskoga zagrijavanja i duljine maceracije masulja te dozrijevanja vina na kemijski sastav, senzorna svojstva i koncentraciju bioaktivnih spojeva u vinima sorte ‘Teran’, a sve s ciljem identifikacije ključnih čimbenika relevantnih u proizvodnji visokokvalitetnih vina te razvoju vinifikacijskih tehnologija koje će maksimalno iskoristiti potencijal sorte.The composition of wine is the subject of numerous studies, mainly due to how phenolic and aromatic compounds influence the sensory properties of wine, where the wine concentration can be significantly modified by applying different vinification technologies. However, in addition to influencing the qualitative properties of wine and considering the contemporary trends in wine research, which are based on the study of bioactive compounds that have a beneficial effect on human health, this research also intended to provide additional knowledge about the value of the ‘Teran’ autochthonous variety, which has been insufficiently researched. Different groups of bioactive compounds were detected in wine, including phenolic compounds, vitamin C, B complex vitamins and minerals. Phenolic compounds are the most abundant bioactive compounds in wine, and numerous studies provide evidence of the pharmacological, biological, and physiological benefits for human health, including blood pressure, cholesterol and lipids regulation, prevention of diabetes, obesity, atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases, as well as anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and antitumor effects. Macro- and microelements play an essential role in the human body, such as building strong bones and transmitting nerve impulses, and are also able to participate in the biosynthesis of different hormones, regulate normal heartbeat, effective in controlling blood pressure, and are involved in immune and brain systems. Wine also includes vitamins, among the nutrients required for the many physiological functions essential to life. Besides nutritional health benefits, a close relationship exists between high-quality wines and high phenolic content, given that phenolic compounds increase the sensory characteristics of wines in terms of color, astringency, and bitterness. Whether positively or negatively, macro- and microelements play an important role in the organoleptic characteristics of wines. Some of them are necessary for the fermentation process and can directly or indirectly impact the clarity and sensory properties of wines, including flavor, freshness, aroma, color, and taste. Certain vitamins are known to affect the formation of aroma compounds. Given that bioactive compounds are often present in very low concentrations, there has been an interest in finding technologies that will increase the extraction of such compounds but, at the same time, have a positive effect on the aromatic profile of wines and preserve or even improve the key parameters of the sensory quality of the wine. Therefore, the main goal of this research was to examine the impact of different vinification technologies on the chemical composition, sensory properties of wine and the concentration of bioactive compounds in wines of the ‘Teran’ variety (Vitis vinifera L.) through to identification and quantification of phenolic compounds, volatile aroma compounds, vitamin C and vitamins of the B group, minerals (macro and microelements) and determination of the antioxidant potential and sensory properties of wine. The experiment was performed in 2018 and 2019 with a grape variety called ‘Teran’, an autochthonous red grapevine variety grown for centuries in the north Adriatic regions of Croatia, Slovenia and Italy. Different vinification processes were carried out: control treatment with 7 days of maceration - TM7 (S), prolonged 10-day maceration - TM10 (S), prolonged post-fermentative 21-day maceration - TM21 (S), where fermentation of all the three treatments was conducted at 24 °C, and 48-hour pre-fermentative maceration heating at 45 °C followed by eight-day classical maceration - TPHT (S) (10 days of maceration in total). Accordingly, all the wine samples were aged in oak barrels for six months, TM7 (Z), TM10 (Z), TM21 (Z) and TPHT (Z). Treatments were done in three replications. The basic physicochemical parameters were analyzed according to
methods set by the International Organization of Vine and Wine. The separation of individual phenols (hydroxycinnamic and hydroxybenzoic acids, flavan-3-ols and stilbenes) was carried out by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Total phenolic content, free and total anthocyanins and determination of antioxidant capacity by FRAP and ORAC assays were performed on a spectrophotometer. The determination of macro- and microelements was conducted using an inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES). Vitamin C and vitamins of the B group were analyzed using HPLC. Volatile aroma compounds were isolated using headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME), and analyzed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Sensory analysis was based on two evaluation methods: quantitative descriptive analysis (QDA) and the 100-point O.I.V./U.I.O.E. evaluation method. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Fisher’s least significant difference (LSD) test were used to compare the means (n = 3) at the level of significance of p < 0.05. The data were subjected to unsupervised statistical analysis using PCA to visualize the relationship between the Teran wines obtained from different treatments and bioactive compounds. Based on the results of the two-year research, the conclusion is that the treatment of pre-fermentation mash heating - TPHT (S) and the treatment of prolonged post-fermentation maceration - TM21 (S) in the Teran wine significantly increased the concentrations of hydroxybenzoic acids, total phenols and the values of antioxidant capacity. In addition, the treatment of pre-fermentation mash heating - TPHT (S) influenced the increase in the concentration of hydroxycinnamic acids and microelements, while the treatment of prolonged post-fermentation maceration - TM21 (S) in the Teran wine increased the content of flavan-3-ol, stilbene, free and total anthocyanin, vitamin B complex and macroelements. TPHT (S) treatment and TM21 (S) treatment reduced the concentration of almost all groups of free volatile compounds compared to the control treatment. However, despite the reduction in the concentration of free volatile compounds, the wines of the mentioned treatments were evaluated with higher scores for the sensory quality of the wine. They were classified in the category of premium wines and described with higher intensities of positive sensory properties, among which dry/dried fruit and spicy/aromatic herbs, while the fullness of the body, the presence of tannins and the aftertaste stand out among the taste properties. In the olfactory properties, the treatment TM21 (S) additionally stood out for its accentuated fruitiness and viscosity, and sweetness of taste, while the intensity of bitterness and astringency was not overemphasized despite the significantly higher concentration of phenolic compounds, especially flavan-3-ol.The application of prolonged maceration treatment for 10 days - TM10 (S), as well as the application of maceration for seven days, which was the control treatment - TM7 (S), did not significantly affect the increase in the concentration of bioactive wine compounds. However, the mentioned treatments resulted in significantly higher concentrations of almost all groups of free volatile aroma compounds compared to the remaining two treatments. Despite the increase mentioned above in the concentration of free volatile aroma compounds, the mentioned treatments were characterized by a lower intensity of almost all olfactory properties and emphasized freshness, acidity, astringency, and bitterness. Maturation of wine in oak barrels for six months had a significant impact on increasing the concentration of free volatile aroma compounds, especially from the group C-13 norisoprenoids, volatile phenols, furans and lactones. Other compounds, especially bioactive compounds such as vitamins of the B group, macroelements, and microelements, as well as most phenolic compounds, were less stable, and their concentrations mostly decreased with maturation. The wine maturation treatment significantly influenced the sensory quality of the wine, and fruity aromas characterized the wines of all treatments after maturation, while the TM21 (Z) and TPHT (Z) treatments stood out with more pronounced aromas of dried and dried fruit, jam, and liqueur. After maturation, all wines had a fuller taste with less pronounced acidity, astringency, and bitterness. The obtained results of this
research contributed to the definition of the influence of pre-fermentation heating and length of maceration and wine maturation on the chemical composition, sensory properties, and concentration of bioactive compounds in wines of the ‘Teran’ variety, all due to the identification of key factors relevant in the production of high-quality wines and the development of vinification technologies which maximize the potential of the variety
Kratkoročno predviđanje potrošnje prirodnog plina korištenjem pametnih plinskih brojila u distribucijskim sustavima : doktorski rad
No full textIn this doctoral research, the input parameters in the available methods for forecasting natural gas consumption were analyzed in detail, and historical data on natural gas consumption and temperature were singled out as the most important and most frequently used. The collected data was used to determine the correlation between the average natural gas consumption of all users with a gas smart meter and the average daily temperature. Also, a statistical distribution of consumers was obtained through data analysis and a simulation of the installation of 100, 1000, 10 000 and 100 000 gas smart meters was made to determine the influence of the number of installed smart meters on the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that in the case of installing 10 000 or 100 000, forecasting accuracy can be achieved with a maximum deviation of about 3%. As a technological solution, a module for remote reading of natural gas consumption was chosen, which enables classic gas meters to function as gas smart meters. The module uses the Sigfox network, which has proven to be very efficient for use in the energy sector. A financial analysis based on the example of the installation of 100 000 gas smart meters showed that the implementation can be profitable, but it is necessary to change the methodology of determining the tariff for gas supply or gas distribution service. As part of the financial analysis, an sensitivity analysis to the increase in the price of natural gas was also carried out, which showed positive effects on profitability. A new method was developed for short-term forecasting of natural gas consumption, which uses the determination of the parameters of the statistical distribution of consumers to forecast the total consumption of natural gas in the analyzed area. The method uses historical data on natural gas consumption for less than 10% of consumers in the analyzed area to simulate the total consumption of natural gas for about 46 800 consumers. The method is applicable regardless of the type of consumer (households, commercial facilities, public buildings) and uses only two input parameters, data on daily consumption of natural gas and average daily temperature. In this research, 75 simulations were made, and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of this method was from 7.26% to 12.15%. Furthermore, it was concluded that due to the reporting error in some modules for remote reading, individual deviations in consumption of users with installed gas smart meters cannot be identified with certainty. At the end, guidelines were proposed for creating application for monitoring natural gas consumption for consumers with installed gas smart meters.Ovaj rad istražuje razvoj metode za kratkoročno predviđanje potrošnje prirodnog plina uz pomoć podataka prikupljenih pomoću pametnih plinskih brojila. Pametna plinska brojila su elektronički sustavi koji mjere potrošnju plina kod krajnjih potrošača u realnom vremenu. Za razliku od konvencionalnih brojila, pametna brojila daju detaljnije informacije i imaju mogućnost prijenosa i primanja podataka u svrhu informiranja, praćenja i upravljanja. Pametna brojila ključni su dio pametne mreže, odnosno energetske mreže koja može automatski pratiti tokove energije i prilagođavati se promjenama u ponudi i potražnji za plinom, pri čemu tržište plina u Europi bilježi brz porast implementiranih pametnih plinskih brojila. Razvojem tržišta plina i deregulacijom cijena predviđanje potrošnje i kretanja cijena plina postaju presudne za poslovno odlučivanje u energetskom sektoru. Ekstremna volatilnost cijena i tržišni rizici povećavaju važnost točnijeg predviđanja potrošnje plina kako bi se smanjio rizik i povećali prihodi poslovanja.
Ciljevi i hipoteze
Ciljevi ovoga rada su definirati krivulju distribucije potrošača prema kriteriju odstupanja od prosječne potrošnje prirodnog plina i odrediti optimalnu statističku distribuciju iste, simulirati ukupnu potrošnju prirodnog plina na analiziranom distribucijskom području te vrednovati točnost rezultata simulacije te detektirati potrošače s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima čija potrošnja odstupa od uobičajene vlastite potrošnje prirodnog plina. Navedeni ciljevi se baziraju na sljedeće dvije hipoteze: (I) korištenjem pametnih plinskih brojila za dnevno očitanje potrošnje prirodnog plina moguće je odrediti krivulju distribucije potrošača prema kriteriju odstupanja od prosječne potrošnje prirodnog plina za analizirano distribucijsko područje i (II) određivanjem krivulje distribucije potrošača prema kriteriju odstupanja od prosječne potrošnje prirodnog plina moguće je kratkoročno prognozirati ukupnu potrošnju prirodnog plina za analizirano distribucijsko područje i identificirati pojedinačna odstupanja od uobičajene potrošnje prirodnog plina kod potrošača s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima.
Znanstveni doprinos
Rezultat ovog istraživanja omogućio je razvoj nove metode za kratkoročne predviđanje ukupne potrošnje prirodnog plina u svrhu smanjenja potrebe za uravnoteženjem bilančne skupine i optimizacije transportnog i distribucijskog sustava plina, primjenjive na bilo kojem III distribucijskom području s instaliranim dovoljnim brojem pametnih plinskih brojila. Novo razvijena metoda koristi određivanje parametara statističke raspodjele potrošača u odnosu na temperaturu, što do sada nije korišteno za potrebe predviđanja potrošnje prirodnog plina. Također, istraživanje je pokazalo koja su ograničenja i problemi kod utvrđivanja pojedinačnih odstupanja od uobičajene potrošnje prirodnog plina kod potrošača s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima. Nadalje, definirane su smjernice za razvoj mobilne i/ili online aplikacije za praćenje potrošnje prirodnog plina za potrošače s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima.
Metode i postupci
Istraživanje se temelji na prikupljanju podataka o potrošnji prirodnog plina korištenjem modula za daljinsko očitanje potrošnje. Moduli su ugrađeni u sklopu pilot projekta jednog od opskrbljivača prirodnim plinom u Republici Hrvatskoj te omogućavaju klasičnom plinskom brojilu da poprimi sve bitne karakteristike pametnog plinskog brojila. Prikupljeni podaci su formirani u SQL bazu podataka gdje je napravljeno inicijalno filtriranje korištenjem SQL upita. Osim potrošnje prirodnog plina, s meteorološke postaje koja se nalazi u blizini velikog broja ugrađenih modula za daljinsko očitanje su prikupljeni javno dostupni podaci o meteorološkim uvjetima te je formirana baza podataka. Obje baze podataka korištene su u prvoj fazi istraživanja gdje je simulirana ugradnja 100, 1000, 10 000 i 100 000 pametnih plinskih brojila te su analizirane maksimalne devijacije simulirane srednje potrošnje od one dobivene korelacijom s temperaturom pomoću stvarnih podataka. Nadalje, u nastavku je provedena financijska analiza kako bi se utvrdila isplativost ulaganja u implementaciju pametnih sustava mjerenja kao i analiza osjetljivosti na povećanje cijene plina. Formirane baze podataka korištene su u nastavku istraživanja za razvoj nove metode za kratkoročno predviđanje potrošnje prirodnog plina, koja određivanjem parametara statističke raspodjele potrošača predviđa ukupnu potrošnju prirodnog plina na analiziranom području.
Rezultati i zaključci
U literaturi su detaljno analizirani ulazni parametri u dostupnim metodama za predviđanje potrošnje prirodnog plina te su kao najvažniji i najčešće korišteni izdvojeni povijesni podaci o potrošnji prirodnog plina i podaci o temperaturi. Na temelju formiranih baza podatka potrošnje prirodnog plina i temperature, prosječna dnevna potrošnja prirodnog plina korisnika s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima korelirana je s prosječnom dnevnom temperaturom te je izračunato odstupanje svih zabilježenih mjerenja dnevne potrošnje prirodnog plina od IV prosječne potrošnje prirodnog plina. Odstupanja su testirana na nekoliko statističkih distribucija te je kao najpovoljnija statistička distribucija odabrana lognormalna statistička distribucija za simuliranje potrošnje u budućnosti. Rezultati simulirane prosječne potrošnje uspoređene su s prosječnim potrošnjama izračunatima pomoću utvrđene korelacije prosječne potrošnje s temperaturom te je analiza maksimalnih devijacija simulirane i korelirane potrošnje rezultirala greškom do 3% u slučaju implementacije 10 000 pametnih brojila. Analizom ekonomskih aspekata dobivene su smjernice za financijsku isplativosti ugradnje velikog broja pametnih plinskih brojila na primjeru Republike Hrvatske. Implementacijom pametnih plinskih brojila, najveći financijski benefiti se ostvaruju upravo od energetskih ušteda od kojih prema sadašnjoj metodologiji profitiraju krajnji korisnici stoga je izmjenom regulative potrebno dio ostvarenih ušteda prebaciti na investitore, odnosno opskrbljivače kako bi se pokrenuo ciklus implementacije pametnih plinskih brojila. Novo razvijena metoda za kratkoročno predviđanje potrošnje plina primjenjiva je neovisno u vrsti potrošača (kućanstva, komercijalni objekti, javne zgrade) te koristi samo dva ulazna parametra, prosječne podatke o dnevnoj potrošnji i prosječne dnevne temperature. Metoda koristi povijesne podatke o potrošnji prirodnog plina manje od 10% potrošača na analiziranom području za simuliranje ukupne potrošnje prirodnog plina za oko 46 800 potrošača. Ovisno o promatranom rasponu potrošnje, korištenim skupovima podataka o temperaturi i odabranom scenariju za broj malih korisnika, prosječne apsolutne postotne pogreške ove metode kretale su se od 7,26% do 12,15%. Najbolji rezultati ostvareni su simulacijom gdje je korištena prosječna dvodnevna temperatura za raspon potrošnje od 0,001 do 250 m3 u scenariju udjela velikih potrošača od 5%. Nadalje, pojedinačna odstupanja u vlastitoj potrošnji kod korisnika s ugrađenim pametnim plinskim brojilima nije bilo moguće sa sigurnošću identificirati zbog grešaka koje nastaju prilikom slanja potrošnje modulom na daljinsko očitanje. Pogreške poput prekida redovnog očitanja potrošnje i promjene vremena slanja podataka o potrošnji u većini bi slučajeva rezultiralo identifikacijom pojedinačnog odstupanja, iako nije bilo odstupanja u normalnoj potrošnji analiziranog krajnjeg potrošača. Na kraju su predložene smjernice za izradu aplikacije za praćenje potrošnje prirodnog plina za potrošače s instaliranim pametnim plinskim brojilima. Razvojem aplikacije s predloženim karakteristika prikupiti će se bitne informacije za kvalitetni dizajn alternativnih sustava grijanja u budućnosti