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Assessing the Experiences and Impact of Minimum Pricing for Alcohol on Service Users and Service Providers: Interim Findings
Get PDF1. Introduction
1.1 In May 2018, Welsh Government issued a specification for an evaluation that would assess the process and impact of the introduction of a Minimum Price for Alcohol [MPA] in Wales. The contract was split into four ‘lots’: (1) a contribution analysis, (2) work with retailers, (3) qualitative work with services and service users, and (4) an assessment of impact on the wider population of drinkers.
1.2 Three of the contracts (Lots 1, 3 and 4) were awarded to a consortium of researchers based at Glyndŵr University (Wrexham), Figure 8 Consultancy Services Ltd (Dundee), and University of South Wales1. Lot 2 was awarded to the National Centre for Social Research2.
1.3 The explicit aim of this component of the research is to assess both the experience and impact of MPA on service users (harmful, hazardous, and dependent drinkers) and services across Wales (including exploring the extent to which switching between substances may have been a consequence of the legislation and the impacts of minimum pricing on household budgets).
1.4 The original plan was to assess the impact of MPA at 18 months and 42 months post-implementation. As a result of the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 18-month follow-up was postponed for six months. This report therefore presents findings from data collected 24 months post-implementation of the legislation. The second follow-up study will still be conducted at 42 months post-implementation, at which point a final evaluation report will be completed and submitted to Welsh Government.
1.5 At this early stage of the evaluation process it is not possible to detail with certainty the full impact of the policy on service users and services without conflating the impact of MPA with the impact of COVID-19 and the current cost of living crisis. We are, however, able to frame early evidence around the ‘early effects’ of the policy, rather than purporting any actual impact(s) of the policy.
1.6 Therefore, this report, which is based on research conducted two years post-implementation of the legislation, provides an important interim assessment of the experience and early effects of MPA on those drinkers who are: (1) directly targeted
1 Lot 1 is led by Glyndŵr University, Lot 3 is led by Figure 8 Consultancy Services Ltd, and Lot 4 is led by University of South Wales.
2 National Centre for Social Research
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by the legislation (i.e. harmful and hazardous drinkers); and (2) the most vulnerable population group that are directly impacted, but not directly targeted, by the legislation (i.e. low income dependent drinkers).
1.7 The research gathered the views and opinions of both service users and service providers using a combination of qualitative interviews and online survey questionnaires (see sections 1.11-1.13 ‘Language’ and Chapter 3 for further detail on the use of these labels/descriptors).
1.8 In relation to service users, the key objectives of the study were to explore:
• how they prepared for the change in the legislation;
• their perceptions of the legislation;
• what changes they made, if any, to their use of alcohol after the introduction of a minimum unit price for alcohol;
• what changes, if any, they made to their use of alternative substances after the change in legislation;
• their perceptions of changes (including substance switching) that other people made after the introduction of the legislation; and
• the impact of the new legislation on their household expenditure and other aspects of their lives (e.g. relationships, employment, health).
1.9 In relation to service providers, the key objectives of the study were to explore:
• the approaches they used to help people prepare for the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol;
• their perceptions of changes in substance use (including substance switching) that service users made after the introduction of minimum unit pricing for alcohol;
• the impact of the new legislation on the lives of service users (e.g. household expenditure, health, relationships, employment, etc); and
• how useful the support materials or guidance that were provided were, as well as any additional materials that may be required.
Structure of the report
1.10 The report is divided into three key parts:
• The first (Chapters 2-4) provides contextual information, an overview of the research methods, as well as the characteristics of the interview and survey samples.
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• The second (Chapters 5-6) presents the results of the study and is structured into two core chapters which present the analysed views of the two key stakeholder groups (service users and service providers).
• The third (Chapters 7-8) summarises the results, provides a comparative discussion of the views of service users and service providers, and includes a set of ‘next steps’ for consideration by the Welsh Government.
Language (labels and descriptors)
1.11 For clarity, the research team have chosen to adopt two labels/descriptors: ‘service users’ (drinkers) and ‘service providers’. Detailed characteristics of these groups, for both survey and interview samples, are provided in Chapter 4.
1.12 Within the report, additional and nuanced terms are used to reflect the specifics of delineated sub-populations within these overall groups.
1.13 In relation to the term ‘service users’, the report acknowledges that survey and interviewing sampling focused on those individuals whose level of drinking is categorised3 as either hazardous, harmful, or dependent4
Agriculture through Industry 4.0: Management, Challenges, and Opportunities in Hostile Environment: The Case of Iraq
Get PDFThis paper reviews the future trends, the present situation and the prospects facing the application of Industry 4.0 technologies (e.g., Drones, texting technologies, GPS, etc.) in Iraq’s agricultural sector in general and small agribusiness industries in particular. Iraq struggles with
chronic structural and emerging challenges that have hindered its food production over the years. In
2019, Iraq’s population had increased to around 39 million people, compared to 23.5 million Iraqis in 2000. This shift amounts to a 66% increase in population in 20 years. Food supply, whether locally produced or imported, has been struggling to catch up with the population growth, and Iraq has become increasingly dependent on food imports to meet domestic demand. Between 1985 and 2017, food imports increased from USD 2 billion to USD 11 billion, growing from 19 to 21% of total imports.
Iraq’s economy has been highly dependent on the oil sector; with declining oil prices, politicians and international communities have emphasised that modern and smart agriculture that applies Industry 4.0 technology can increase productivity and be a source of job creation, income generation and self-reliance. Nonetheless, evidence obtained via this exploratory study using unstructured
interviews (3 out 33) via an interpretive approach and conducting thematic analysis of the interviews
with farmers and agri-entrepreneurs indicate that there is a long journey ahead before Iraq can rely on agriculture and new technologies, instead of oil, for its economy and to improve its food system. Moreover, Iraq’s political turmoil and uncertainty, the cyclical conflict and wars, and the
corruption and mismanagement of state resources exacerbate this problem. Indeed, farmers face many challenges, such as a lack of infrastructure and security, the dominance of state-owned enterprises, and financing issues, with many farm owners struggling to access finance since there is no clear banking or credit system. On top of that issue, the diminishing of tacit knowledge among the farmers
and the labour shortage issue in the agricultural sector hinders application of smart technology, as
the majority of workers remaining in the market are unskilled labour. This study contributed to the
literature on the application of smart technologies in agriculture and its socioeconomic effects. The
exploratory nature of this study identifies areas for future research. Additionally, the arguments
presented in this research highlight the challenges farmers and agri-entrepreneurs face in adopting
new technologies and the tactics that they use to survive in a hostile environment like Iraq. It will
also offer suggestions to help policymakers and international communities focus on intervention to
help farmers and agri-entrepreneurs in Iraq to improve their performance
A Test Rig for the Calibration of Strain Sensing Carbon Fibre
Get PDFThis paper presents the test equipment developed for the measurement and calibration of sensing carbon fibre. The testing device provides precise load application to a carbon fibre tow and measuring the micro-variations of the fibre electrical resistance in a temperature-controlled environment. The measurement approach based on sensing carbon fibre is a method for strain measurement being recently developed and similar to the traditional strain gauge method. However, due to the integration of the sensing element into the material, it is considered the most promising alternative for carbon fibre reinforced plastic applications. The theory behind fibre strain measurement including the influence of the temperature on the fibre electrical resistance is presented. A detailed presentation of the measurement and calibration device is given including the measurement loop. The test rig is capable of testing fibres at a temperature up to 180∘C and the maximum load applied to the fibre of 1500N . A 5-run test on a T300 3K carbon fibre at 100∘C is provided as an example of the test rig operation. On average, the accuracy of the testing method over half load (700N) offers results having a maximum variation of 5% around the mean value of the whole set of test readings collected
Integrating research & practice in schools: an emerging collaborative framework within Welsh education
Get PDFEducation in Wales is evolving. Government-led
dissemination of standardised practice, often leading
to ‘faddism’ or ‘inspection chasing’, is quickly receding
into the past (IEE, 2021). Placing practitioner autonomy
in the foreground, increased focus has been placed
on remodelling education as an evidence-informed
profession through a greater integration of research
and practice (Welsh Government, 2021)
Jump Girls-Female Jockey's Unique Stressors and Coping Strategies
Get PDFPurpose: Horse racing is one of the only sports in the world where males and females complete alongside each other, however female jockeys represent a small minority with the horse racing community. Insight into the unique stressors female jockeys encounter may provide sport science specialists and researchers with a greater awareness of the influencing aspects towards their stressors and specific supports they need. The primary aim of this study was to explore the unique stressors and coping strategies of female jockeys.
Design: Semi-structured interviewed were conducted with ten female jockeys.
Findings: The results found distinctive female stressors, such as a perceived limited timeframe for careers, lack of momentum, lack of control over their career and males being chosen over females to race ride. Bespoke female coping strategies were also identified, such as social support, wellbeing strategies and reflection on stressful experiences. No single coping strategy was identified.
Practical implications: A valuable recommendation should be to interpret new data into applied, bespoke, best practice guidelines, and thus educate jockeys and service providers to enable, educate and support female jockeys to cope with performance and environmental stressors.
Originality/value: This study fills a significant gap in the existing literature. Research relating to female jockeys is incredibly limited
Terahertz Antenna Design Using Machine Learning Assisted Global Optimization Techniques
Get PDFIn the terahertz (THz) frequency band, high path loss necessitates designing the antenna with high-gain characteristics, making it challenging to obtain an optimal design solution. This paper investigates the feasibility of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven antenna design techniques to address the challenges, specifically the Surrogate Model- assisted Differential Evolution for Antenna Synthesis (SADEA-I) algorithm. SADEA-I has been employed for the first time (to the best of our knowledge) to optimize THz antennas. The simulation results show that SADEA-I is more effective than conventional design methodologies. Additionally, it takes only 30 hours to perform the global optimization, and it is a fully automated process and does not require any initial design
A Generalized Framework for Adopting Regression-Based Predictive Modeling in Manufacturing Environments
Get PDFIn this paper, the growing significance of data analysis in manufacturing environments is exemplified through a review of relevant literature and a generic framework to aid the ease of adoption of regression-based supervised learning in manufacturing environments. To validate the practicality of the framework, several regression learning techniques are applied to an open-source multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process data set to typify inference-driven decision-making that informs the selection of regression learning methods for adoption in real-world manufacturing environments. The investigated regression learning techniques are evaluated in terms of their training time, prediction speed, predictive accuracy (R-squared value), and mean squared error. In terms of training time, k-NN20 (k-Nearest Neighbour with 20 neighbors) ranks first with average and median values of 4.8 ms and 4.9 ms, and 4.2 ms and 4.3 ms, respectively, for the first stage and second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, respectively, over 50 independent runs. In terms of prediction speed, DTR (decision tree regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 5.6784×10^6 observations per second (ob/s) and 4.8691×10^6 observations per second (ob/s), and 4.9929×10^6 observations per second (ob/s) and 5.8806×10^6 observations per second (ob/s), respectively, for the first stage and second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, respectively, over 50 independent runs. In terms of R-squared value, BR (bagging regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 0.728 and 0.728, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the first stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, and RFR (random forest regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 0.746 and 0.746, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. In terms of mean squared error, BR (bagging regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 2.7 and 2.7, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the first stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, and RFR (random forest regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 3.5 and 3.5, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. All methods are further ranked inferentially using the statistics of their performance metrics to identify the best method(s) for the first and second stages of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. A Wilcoxon rank sum test is then used to statistically verify the inference-based rankings. DTR and k-NN20 have been identified as the most suitable regression learning techniques given the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process data used for experimentation
24-month Review of the Introduction of Minimum Pricing for Alcohol in Wales
Get PDFIntroduction
1.1 In November 2018, Welsh Government issued a specification for an evaluation that would assess the process and impact of the introduction of a
minimum price for alcohol (MPA) in Wales.
1.2 The contract was split into four ‘lots’:
• Lot 1 – a Contribution Analysis;
• Lot 2 – work with Retailers;
• Lot 3 – qualitative work with services and service users; and
• Lot 4 – an assessment of impact on the wider population of drinkers.
1.3 Three of the contracts (Lots 1, 3, and 4) were awarded to a consortium of researchers based at Glyndwr University Wrexham, Figure 8 Consultancy, and the University of South Wales 1. The Retailers contract was awarded to
the National Centre for Social Research. This report pertains to the Contribution Analysis (Lot 1), which seeks to synthesise and comment on the early contribution the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol in Wales has made to alcohol related behavioural, consumption, and retail
outcomes.
1.4 This report provides an analysis of the Welsh minimum pricing journey so far. It is a synthesis document that offers an overall evaluation of the implementation, early (24 month) impact and initial considerations of the
introduction of MPA into Wales. In doing so this report has brought together a range of secondary and primary data material. This includes the interim reports from the other three lots as above, some additional new primary
interview data and material from evaluations and reflections on the implementation of pricing policies in other jurisdictions, notably Scotland. In order to maintain a manageable volume and readability, it has deliberately
1 Lot 1 is led by Glyndwr University (Wrexham); Lot 3 is led by Figure 8 Consultancy Services Ltd (Dundee); and Lot 4 is led by The University of South Wales.
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PUBLIC / CYHOEDDUS
not (overly) repeated detail that is elsewhere, concentrating instead on the key learning whilst signposting to the existing evidence trail
5 × 5 MIMO Antennas for Future 5G mm-Wave Communication
Get PDFA suggested MIMO antenna's goal is to function in one of the Federal Communication Commission's designated 5G spectral bands (FCC). Due to its propensity to handle both many inputs and numerous outputs, MIMO technology may effectively address issues with large amounts of transportation and high data rates. The overall dimension of a single-element antenna is 10 x 10 mm2, The proposed MIMO antenna design consists of twenty-five elements and the resonance frequency of each antenna element is 37 GHz. The maximum gain and directivity of an antenna are greater than 6 dB. For the designing and simulation of the proposed twenty-five element MIMO antennas is CST Studio Suite software. The proposed antenna will be a candidate for future mm-Wave communication applications in terms of compactness
Place-making in the Mersey Dee before and after Brexit and COVID-19 disruption: A typology of companies and their engagement with their localities and key actors
Get PDFThe purpose of this paper is to develop a typology of firms operating in a peripheral economy. A three-way typology is presented which builds on previous studies, distinguishing between the ‘pure agglomeration’,” ‘industrial complex’ and ‘social network’ models. This typology is refined and applied to the Mersey Dee area, a cross-border region within the UK with a dispersed, segmented economy. Two case studies of firms located in the Mersey Dee are explored to test the typology and examine how these firms related to their places and to other firms and institutions, in the context of rapidly changing market conditions due to COVID-19 and Brexit. The findings confirm the typology and establish a clear contrast between firm types operating in a peripheral economy such as the Mersey Dee, providing relevant insights into the contributions they can make and how balanced regional development policies could support the heterogeneity and richness of their place-based economies. These approaches will differ from the traditional agglomeration or cluster model, typically advocated to build sustainable economic centres. Further research is recommended through comparator case studies of similar regions internationally, within the typology presented