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PREDIKSI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MULTIVARIAT GARCH PADA INDUSTRI KOSMETIK INDONESIA
Get PDFThe Indonesian cosmetics industry recorded significant growth of 9.39% in 2023,
positioning it among the fastest-growing sectors in the manufacturing domain.
However, stock price movements of cosmetics companies exhibit substantial
volatility, necessitating accurate volatility forecasting models to inform investment
decisions and manage financial risk. This study aims to forecast stock price
volatility in the Indonesian cosmetics sector using Multivariate GARCH models,
specifically BEKK-GARCH and DCC-GARCH frameworks. The research utilizes
daily closing prices of PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO) and PT Mustika Ratu Tbk
(MRAT) from January 2019 to December 2024, totaling 1,469 observations.
Analysis was conducted through multivariate normality testing via Henze-Zirkler
and Doornik-Hansen tests, stationarity testing via ADF and KPSS tests, white noise
testing using Ljung-Box test, and heteroskedasticity testing through ARCH LM
Test. Both models were estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)
and evaluated based on log-likelihood, AIC, BIC, and forecasting metrics including
RMSE, MSE, and MAPE. Results indicate that both stocks exhibit stationary log
returns with significant ARCH effects. BEKK-GARCH model demonstrates
superior performance with log-likelihood of 7060.2463, AIC -14098.4926, and BIC -14042.8368, outperforming DCC-GARCH. BEKK-GARCH excels in KINO
volatility prediction, while DCC-GARCH performs better for MRAT. The observed
low dynamic correlation between the two stocks highlights potential for portfolio
diversification. This research presents a practical framework for volatility
prediction in emerging markets and develops a web-based application using
Streamlit to facilitate interactive model implementation.
Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, Volatility, Cosmetics Industry, BEKK-GARCH,
DCC-GARC
Praktik Kerja Lapangan di PT. Petrokimia Gresik Departemen Produksi I A
No full textIndonesia is an agricultural country with abundant natural resources, so the focus of development is on the agricultural sector. One of the massive agricultural efforts undertaken is the establishment of fertilizer factories to meet national fertilizer needs, one of which is the PT Petrokimia Gresik fertilizer factory.One of PT Petrokimia Gresik products is ZA fertilizer. The ZA fertilizer manufacturing process in production units I/III utilizes a neutralization process between ammonia and sulfuric acid in a saturator until crystallization occurs. The efficiency of this saturator is determined using a mass balance calculation
Pemanfaatan Konten Instagram dan Social Media Influencer dalam Meningkatkan Penjualan di Fas Cafe Surabaya
No full textPenelitian ini mengkaji pemanfaatan konten Instagram dan social media
influencer dalam meningkatkan penjualan di Fas Cafe Surabaya. Media sosial, khususnya
Instagram, telah menjadi platform penting untuk pemasaran, terutama bagi generasi
milenial yang aktif menggunakan media ini. Studi ini menggunakan metode kualitatif
melalui wawancara, observasi, dan dokumentasi untuk mengumpulkan data. Hasil
penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi pemasaran melalui konten visual yang konsisten
dan kolaborasi dengan influencer efektif dalam meningkatkan kesadaran merek dan
penjualan. Konten Instagram yang relevan dengan target audiens, serta kerjasama
dengan influencer yang memiliki pengikut sesuai dengan demografi target, terbukti
meningkatkan interaksi dan jumlah kunjungan. Penelitian ini menyoroti pentingnya
digital marketing melalui media sosial sebagai strategi promosi yang potensial untuk
meningkatkan kinerja pemasaran Fas Cafe
PELAKSANAAN PROGRAM PENGUATAN IDEOLOGI PANCASILA DAN KARAKTER KEBANGSAAN MELALUI SOSIALISASI DAN FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSION (FGD) DI BADAN KESATUAN BANGSA DAN POLITIK KABUPATEN SIDOARJO
No full textPenelitian ini mengkaji dan mendeskripsikan mengenai peran Badan Kesatuan Bangsa dan Politik (Bakesbangpol) dalam proses seleksi calon anggota Paskibraka Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Metode penelitian yang digunakan yaitu penelitian kualitatif deskriptif, dalam penelitian ini menggunakan tiga indikator regulasi, konsep, dan perilaku individu dari teori Soekanto. Temuan menunjukkan bahwa peran Badan Kesatuan Bangsa dan Politik dalam regulasi untuk melakukan pelaksanaan seleksi calon anggota Paskibraka dinilai cukup baik. Upaya Badan Kesatuan Bangsa dan Politik serta partisipasi aktif dengan berbagai pihak telah menjadi kunci keberhasilan untuk menumbuhkan generasi pemuda yang tidak hanya mampu secara fisik tetapi juga mewujudkan nilai-nilai bangsa. Pelaksanaan proses seleksi ini didukung oleh sistem komputerisasi yang mewujudkan tata kelola yang baik. Meskipun sejumlah kendala teknis telah berhasil diatasi, namun hal ini perlu menjadi perhatian untuk terus meningkatkan kualitas pelaksanaan seleksi di masa mendatang
IMPLEMENTASI TEKNOLOGI AI DALAM SISTEM SKRINING RESUME UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KUALITAS REKRUTMEN PADA PT BISA ARTIFISIAL INDONESIA
No full textPerkembangan teknologi kecerdasan buatan (AI) telah memberikan dampak yang signifikan dalam berbagai sektor, termasuk rekrutmen. Proses rekrutmen yang konvensional seringkali memakan waktu dan sumber daya yang cukup besar. Untuk mengatasi hal ini, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengimplementasikan teknologi AI dalam sistem skrining resume pada PT Bisa AI. Dengan memanfaatkan algoritma AI, diharapkan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi dan akurasi proses skrining resume, sehingga menghasilkan kualitas rekrutmen yang lebih baik. Penelitian ini akan membahas desain dan pengembangan sistem skrining resume berbasis AI, termasuk pemilihan fitur, algoritma, dan evaluasi kinerja sistem. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi dalam pengembangan sistem rekrutmen yang lebih cerdas dan efekti
Kualitas Pelayanan Administrasi Terpadu Kecamatan Di Kecamatan Mojoanyar Kabupaten Mojokerto
Get PDFThis research is motivated by the phenomenon of delays in completing population administration service documents in Mojoanyar District, Mojokerto Regency, which does not meet the standard service time of three working days. This problem was identified through citizen registration book data and a public satisfaction survey from 2021–2024, which indicated that the time dimension was the lowest-scoring element of service. This study aims to describe and analyze the quality of integrated administrative services in Mojoanyar District. The study used a qualitative descriptive method, with data collection techniques including structured interviews, observation, and documentation. The research informants consisted of the Head of the Subdistrict Service Section, service staff, and community service users. Data validity was validated through triangulation of sources, techniques, and time. The results indicate that, in general, population administration services, reviewed from the dimensions of Tangible, Responsiveness, Competence, Courtesy, Credibility, Security, Access, Communication, and Understanding the Customer, are of high quality. However, in the Reliability aspect, obstacles were still found due to limited forms, network disruptions, and gradual procedures that require cross-agency coordination, which impacted the timeliness of document completion, especially related to population services. These delays have an impact on decreasing public satisfaction even though other aspects are considered adequate. Therefore, continuous evaluation of the availability of service logistics, optimization of procedures, and improvements to technological infrastructure are essential to optimize the quality of public services in Mojoanyar District and meet public expectations.
Keywords : Service Quality, PATEN, Mojoanyar Distric
ANALISIS RESEPSI PENONTON PADA KEKUATAN SUPRANATURAL DALAM FILM KISAH TANAH JAWA POCONG GUNDUL
Get PDFPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis resepsi penonton terhadap
representasi kekuatan supranatural dalam film Kisah Tanah Jawa: Pocong Gundul.
Film ini menampilkan beragam fenomena supranatural seperti retrokognisi, keris
sakti, dan perjanjian ghaib dengan makhluk halus, yang dikemas dalam narasi horor
berbasis budaya Jawa. Melalui pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode analisis
resepsi, penelitian ini menggunakan teori Stuart Hall sebagai kerangka analisis
utama untuk mengklasifikasikan pemaknaan audiens ke dalam tiga kategori:
dominant-hegemonic, negotiated, dan oppositional reading. Data diperoleh melalui
wawancara mendalam terhadap lima informan yang telah menonton film tersebut.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa setiap informan memiliki posisi decoding
yang berbeda dalam memaknai kekuatan supranatural dalam film. Dua informan
menempati posisi dominan dan menerima sepenuhnya representasi kekuatan gaib
dalam film, sejalan dengan pengalaman spiritual dan kepercayaan budaya yang
mereka anut. Dua informan lainnya berada pada posisi negosiasi, menunjukkan
sikap selektif dengan menerima sebagian makna film sambil mempertanyakan
elemen yang dianggap berlebihan. Sementara itu, satu informan berada pada posisi
oposisi, secara tegas menolak representasi kekuatan supranatural karena dianggap
bertentangan dengan keyakinan religiusnya. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa
audiens bukanlah penerima makna yang pasif, melainkan aktor aktif yang
menafsirkan pesan media berdasarkan latar belakang personal, kultural, dan
ideologis masing-masing.
Kata Kunci: resepsi penonton, kekuatan supranatural, film horor, Kisah Tanah
Jawa: Pocong Gundul, Stuart Hal
Analisis Hubungan Food Coping Strategies Terhadap Ketahanan Pangan Rumah Tangga Nelayan Kelurahan Lumpur Kabupaten Gresik
Get PDFFishing households in Lumpur Gresik Regency represent a vulnerable group in terms of food security due to fluctuating incomes and limited access to food. This study aims to: (1) identify the level of food security among fishing households, (2) analyze the Food Coping Strategies adopted by these households, and (3) examine the relationship between Food Coping Strategies and household food security. The research was conducted in Lumpur Village, Gresik Regency, involving 80 fishing households selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected via questionnaires and interviews, and analyzed using the US-HFSSM, Reduced Coping Strategies Index (RCSI), and chi-square tests. Results showed that 88% of fishing households were food insecure, with 50% experiencing moderate hunger and 25% experiencing severe hunger. Most households employed coping strategies at a moderate level (51.25%), followed by low (26.25%) and high levels (23.75%). The chi-square test indicated a significant relationship between the intensity of coping strategies and the level of food security.. Higher coping intensity was associated with lower household food security. These findings highlight the need for locally tailored policy interventions, including the development of alternative income sources and the promotion of healthy coping mechanisms, to enhance the long-term food security of fishing households
IMPLEMENTASI PROGRAM TRANSPORTASI MASYARAKAT TUBAN YANG ELEGAN, AMAN, NYAMAN DAN TERINTEGRASI (SIMASGANTENG) UNTUK PELAJAR DI KABUPATEN TUBAN
Get PDFPenelitian ini menganalisis implementasi program Transportasi Bus SIMASGANTENG, yang diluncurkan di Kabupaten Tuban untuk menekan tingginya angka kecelakaan pelajar dan mengurangi beban biaya transportasi untuk keluarga yang kurang mampu. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kualitatif deskriptif dengan pengumpulan data melalui observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Analisis data dilakukan dengan model Miles dan Huberman, mencakup kondensasi data, penyajian data, serta penarikan kesimpulan dan verifikasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa meskipun antusiasme pelajar tinggi, program ini belum berhasil menurunkan angka kecelakaan secara signifikan pada 2024-2025 dan implementasinya belum optimal. Kendala utama yang dihadapi adalah fasilitas pendukung seperti halte yang tidak memadai, jumlah armada yang kurang untuk memenuhi permintaan, serta kurangnya koordinasi dari berbagai pihak. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan peningkatan fasilitas, penambahan armada, dan penguatan koordinasi untuk mengoptimalkan program
Analisis User Experience Aplikasi M-Banking Menggunakan HEART Metrics Modifikasi (Studi Kasus BLU By BCA Digital)
Get PDFThe growth of mobile banking services in Indonesia has provided convenience and flexibility for users in conducting digital financial transactions. BLU by BCA Digital is one such innovation, offering branchless banking with a notable increase in user adoption. However, user reviews on various digital platforms indicate issues such as technical difficulties during transactions and unintuitive features, raising concerns regarding the quality of user experience (UX) offered by the application.
This study aims to analyze the user experience of the BLU mobile banking application using a modified HEART Metrics framework, which includes an additional variable: Intention to Reuse. The analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) method with SmartPLS 4, involving 476 active users of the BLU By BCA Digital application.
The results show that the variables Happiness, Engagement, Adoption, and Task Success have a positive and significant influence on Intention to Reuse. In contrast, Retention does not demonstrate a significant effect, leading to the rejection of its associated hypothesis. Although users generally report satisfaction, the long-term consistency in application usage remains relatively weak. Furthermore, Adoption is at the lower threshold of the "good" category in the Goal-Signal-Metrics (GSM) phase, indicating the need for improvements in user acquisition and onboarding processes. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of UX evaluation in mobile banking services and serves as a reference for the development of user-centric digital applications that aim to enhance satisfaction and long-term usage