Toulouse 1 Capitole Publications
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Backward induction reasoning beyond backward induction
No full textBackward Induction is a fundamental concept in game theory. As an algorithm, it can only be used to analyze a very narrow class of games, but its logic is also invoked, albeit informally, in several solution concepts for games with imperfect or incomplete informa-tion (Subgame Perfect Equilibrium, Sequential Equilibrium, etc.). Yet, the very meaning of ‘backward induction reasoning’ is not clear in these settings, and we lack a way to apply this simple and compelling idea to more general games. We remedy this by introducing a solution concept for games with imperfect and incomplete information, Backwards Rational-izability, that captures precisely the implications of backward induction reasoning. We show that Backwards Rationalizability satisfies several properties that are normally ascribed to backward induction reasoning, such as: (i) an incomplete-information extension of subgame consistency (continuation-game consistency); (ii) the possibility, in finite horizon games, of being computed via a tractable backwards procedure; (iii) the view of unexpected moves as mistakes; (iv) a characterization of the robust predictions of a ‘perfect equilibrium’ notion that introduces the backward induction logic and nothing more into equilibrium analysis.
We also discuss a few applications, including a new version of peer-confirming equilibrium (Lipnowski and Sadler (2019)) that, thanks to the backward induction logic distilled by Backwards Rationalizability, restores in dynamic games the natural comparative statics the original concept only displays in static settings
Covid-19 Pandemic and Performance of Economic Sectors in Vietnam
No full textPurpose of the paper: This study aims to consider the Covid impact on stock – price volatility of different industry groups in Vietnam by using the M-GARCH model
Water allocation, crop choice, and priority services
No full textWe analyze the problem of allocating irrigation water among heterogeneous farmers when water supply is stochastic. If farmers are risk-neutral, a spot market for water is efficient; while the oft-used uniform rationing system is inefficient, both ex ante and ex post. Indeed, we show that it leads farmers to overexpose to risk, thus making shortages more severe and more frequent in case of drought. We propose instead a regulation by priority classes extending Wilson, and we derive an efficiency result. We characterize the set of farmers that would win or lose from such a reform. We also argue that a system of priority classes may be preferred to a spot market system, because scarcity is easier to manage ex ante than ex post, and because this system facilitates the supply of insurance to risk-averse agents
Publication de deux nouveaux référentiels par la CNIL en matière de gestion des activités commerciales et de gestion des impayés dans une transaction commerciale
No full textL’éligibilité à la procédure de surendettement des particuliers (note s/s Cass. 2e civ., 16 déc. 2021, n° 20-18.344 et n° 20-16.485)
No full text1 - La seule qualité d'associé d'un GAEC (groupement agricole d'exploitation en commun) ne suffit pas à faire relever la personne concernée du régime des procédures collectives et à l'exclure du champ d'application des dispositions relatives au surendettement des particuliers (1re esp. n° 20-18.344).
2 - La seule qualité d'associé d'une SCI ne suffit pas à faire relever la personne concernée du régime des procédures collectives et à l'exclure du champ d'application des dispositions relatives au surendettement des particuliers (2e esp. n° 20-16.485)
Quelques réflexions sur la recherche des principes du droit administratif européen
No full textCette étude relie à la question des principes du droit administratif européen celle de la définition de ce droit, de son positionnement, par rapport au droit administratif global, ou par rapport au droit du Conseil de l'Europe, de ses objectifs, et de sa codification
Is survival a luxury good? Income elasticity of the value per statistical life
No full textThe value of a change in mortality risk is conventionally described by the marginal rate of substitution between income and mortality risk—the value per statistical life (VSL). The income elasticity of VSL is important for estimating how the value of mortality risk varies with time (for evaluating programs with long-lived effects) and across populations with different income levels (for evaluating programs with international consequences). Previous estimates of income elasticity based on meta-analysis of wage-differential studies and cross-sectional comparisons in stated-preference studies suggest values between about one-half and one. We present new estimates based on a 16-year series of wage-differential estimates in Taiwan. Between 1982 and 1997, estimated VSL increased by a factor of five while household labor earnings increased by 60 percent, per capita GDP increased two-and-a-half fold, and the occupational fatality rate in manufacturing and service industries decreased by half. Comparing the growth of VSL with that of household income implies the income elasticity is between about two and five but this estimate may be biased by the endogeneity of VSL, which is affected by workers’ job choices. Using a two-stage approach to control for endogeneity yields estimates of the income elasticity of VSL between two-thirds and one, consistent with estimates from other approaches
Underrepresentation of women in the economics profession more pronounced in the United States compared to heterogeneous Europe
No full textBased on a dataset that we collected from the top research institutions in economics around the globe (including universities, business schools, and other organizations, such as central banks), we document the underrepresentation of women in economics. For the 238 universities and business schools in the sample, women hold 25% of senior-level positions (full professor or associate professor) and 37% of junior-level positions. In the 82 US universities and business schools, the figures are 20% on the senior level and 32% on the entry level, while in the 122 European institutions, the numbers are 27% and 38%, respectively, with some heterogeneity across countries. The numbers also show that the highest-ranking institutions (in terms of research output) have fewer women in senior positions. Moreover, in the United States, this effect is even present on the junior level. The “leaky pipeline” may hence begin earlier than oftentimes assumed and is even more of an issue in the highly integrated market of the United States. In Europe, an institution ranked 100 places higher has 3 percentage points fewer women in senior positions, but in the United States, it is almost 5 percentage points