Toulouse 1 Capitole Publications
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Electoral Cycles, Investment, and Institutional Constraints in Developing Democracies
No full textA longstanding question is whether policy uncertainty reduces private fixed investment in developing democracies. Yet studying the question empirically has proven challenging given that economic activity can cause as well as result from policy uncertainty. We investigate this issue within the context of electoral business cycles, building on research that suggests elections provide an exogenous source of policy uncertainty. As a central part of this analysis, which involves four decades of data from 57 developing democracies, we examine how institutional constraints moderate the relationship. Three main findings emerge. First, on average, elections are associated with a decline in private fixed investment. Second, however, this effect varies according to the level of institutional constraints; as they increase, the electoral cycle becomes less pronounced, including in specifications that account for the potential endogeneity of the institutions. Third, the effects are larger and more robust in systems with fixed elections
Compétence juridictionnelle en cas de violation du droit au transfert du contrat de travail lors d'une faillite communautaire
No full textLa valeur du silence du créancier informé d’une modification du plan de continuation (note sous Cass. com., 29 sept. 2021, n°H 20-10.436 : FS+B)
No full textContrairement à la solution retenue lors de l’élaboration du plan, aucune disposition légale ou réglementaire ne déduit de l'absence d'observations adressées au commissaire à l'exécution du plan l'acceptation par le créancier de la modification proposée
National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
No full textChanging collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter
hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for
representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic
(r = −0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics
The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle
No full textWhen an intertemporal carbon budget is imposed to fight climate change, carbon pricing must be simultaneously efficient to allocate efforts intertemporally and coherent with the prices of other assets in the economy. The expected carbon prices should therefore grow at the social discount rate, adjusted for the risk profile of marginal abatement costs(MAC). I calibrate a simple two-period version of the model by introducing infrequent macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro in order to fit the model to observed assets pricing in the economy. I show that MAC and aggregate consumption are positively correlated, so that abating early does not hedge the macroeconomic risk, implying a growth rate of expected efficient carbon prices larger than the interest rate. From this numerical exercise, I recommend a growth rate of expected carbon price around 3.75% per year (plus inflation), which is much smaller than what is recommended by most climate models with a fixed carbon budget. This means that most climate models using a carbon budget largely underestimate the efficient carbon price in the short run. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to carbon pricing implies a very large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint
Executive Accountability Beyond Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Public Evaluations of Powerful Prime Ministers
No full textAlthough executives in many democracies have constitutional powers to circumvent the majoritarian legislative process to make policy, political scientists know relatively little about whether and when ordinary people hold executives accountable for the process they use. To study this issue beyond the American presidency, we conduct a series of large survey experiments in France, where the institution of the confidence procedure puts the government in a strong position relative to parliament. Our experiments highlight that public evaluations of the executive reflect a fundamental trade‐off between policy and process. If they face significant opposition in the legislative process, executives either have to accept policy failure or risk punishment for the use of procedural force. People dislike both results, and the average popularity gain of using the confidence procedure over not delivering the policy is modest. Moreover, in some contexts, executives are strictly better off not legislating rather than applying force
Réflexions sur l’état d’exception à la lumière de trois ouvrages allemands (A. B. Kaiser, Ausnahmeverfassungsrecht (2020), J. Finke, Krisen. Ein Erklärungsversuch dynamischer Rechtsentwicklungen in Krisenzeiten (2020), T. Barczak, Der nervöse Staat. Ausnahmezustand und Resilienz des Rechts in der Sicherheitsgesellschaft, 2020))
No full textMeasuring Judicial Sentiment: Methods and Application to US Circuit Courts
No full textThis paper provides a general method for analysing the sentiments expressed in the language of judicial rulings. We apply natural language processing tools to the text of US appellate court opinions to extrapolate judges’ sentiments (positive/good vs. negative/bad) towards a number of target social groups. We explore descriptively how these sentiments vary over time and across types of judges. In addition, we provide a method for using random assignment of judges in an instrumental variables framework to estimate causal effects of judges’ sentiments. In an empirical application, we show that more positive sentiment influences future judges by increasing the likelihood of reversal but also increasing the number of forward citations
La rupture brutale d’une relation commerciale établie sur le domaine public. (Observations sous TC, 5 juil. 2021, n° 4213, EPCI Pays de Fontainebleau Tourisme)
No full textRadicalization of Islam or Peddling Radicalism? Lessons from the French Experience
No full textA simple game-theoretic model is used to end the sterile intellectual trench war between those who analyze each instance of a community’s radicalization process as a self-contained phenomenon and those who prefer to embed such episodes within a more encompassing social framework. In the model, two groups labeled “Islamic” and “Nativists” are competing using radicalization as a tool to enlarge their share of the limelight in the media. Exogenous shocks are then shown to entail both idiosyncratic responses and interactions between the two groups. The French “radicalized decade” 2011-2020, which witnessed both the Bataclan highly lethal Jihadist attack in 2015 and the populist gilets jaunes massive uprising from 2018 to the COVID-related lockdown in 2020, among other radicalization events, is used to put some of the model’s insight to work. A simple extension of the model is used to shed some light on the emerging Islamo-Leftist and Lefto-Populist tacit collusions, which suggest that the radical left is somehow breaking apart, thus probably boosting in fact the collective radicalization process