Toulouse 1 Capitole Publications
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Electoral Cycles, Investment, and Institutional Constraints in Developing Democracies
No full textA longstanding question is whether policy uncertainty reduces private fixed investment in developing democracies. Yet studying the question empirically has proven challenging given that economic activity can cause as well as result from policy uncertainty. We investigate this issue within the context of electoral business cycles, building on research that suggests elections provide an exogenous source of policy uncertainty. As a central part of this analysis, which involves four decades of data from 57 developing democracies, we examine how institutional constraints moderate the relationship. Three main findings emerge. First, on average, elections are associated with a decline in private fixed investment. Second, however, this effect varies according to the level of institutional constraints; as they increase, the electoral cycle becomes less pronounced, including in specifications that account for the potential endogeneity of the institutions. Third, the effects are larger and more robust in systems with fixed elections
Compétence juridictionnelle en cas de violation du droit au transfert du contrat de travail lors d'une faillite communautaire
No full textLa valeur du silence du créancier informé d’une modification du plan de continuation (note sous Cass. com., 29 sept. 2021, n°H 20-10.436 : FS+B)
No full textContrairement à la solution retenue lors de l’élaboration du plan, aucune disposition légale ou réglementaire ne déduit de l'absence d'observations adressées au commissaire à l'exécution du plan l'acceptation par le créancier de la modification proposée
National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
No full textChanging collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter
hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for
representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic
(r = −0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics
The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle
No full textWhen an intertemporal carbon budget is imposed to fight climate change, carbon pricing must be simultaneously efficient to allocate efforts intertemporally and coherent with the prices of other assets in the economy. The expected carbon prices should therefore grow at the social discount rate, adjusted for the risk profile of marginal abatement costs(MAC). I calibrate a simple two-period version of the model by introducing infrequent macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro in order to fit the model to observed assets pricing in the economy. I show that MAC and aggregate consumption are positively correlated, so that abating early does not hedge the macroeconomic risk, implying a growth rate of expected efficient carbon prices larger than the interest rate. From this numerical exercise, I recommend a growth rate of expected carbon price around 3.75% per year (plus inflation), which is much smaller than what is recommended by most climate models with a fixed carbon budget. This means that most climate models using a carbon budget largely underestimate the efficient carbon price in the short run. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to carbon pricing implies a very large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint
Diffusing Political Concerns: How Unemployment Information Passed between Social Ties Influences Danish Voters
No full textWhile social pressure is widely believed to influence voters, evidence that information passed between social ties affects beliefs, policy preferences, and voting behavior is limited. We investigate whether information about unemployment shocks diffuses through networks of strong and mostly weak social ties and influences voters in Denmark. We link surveys with population-level administrative data that log unemployment shocks afflicting respondents’ familial, vocational, and educational networks. Our results show that the share of second-degree social ties—individuals that voters learn about indirectly—that became unemployed within the last year increases a voter’s perception of national unemployment, self-assessed risk of becoming unemployed, support for unemployment insurance, and voting for left-wing political parties. Voters’ beliefs about national aggregates respond to all shocks similarly, whereas subjective perceptions and preferences respond primarily to unemployment shocks afflicting second-degree ties in similar vocations. This suggests that information diffusion through social ties principally affects political preferences via egotropic—rather than sociotropic—motives
National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic: Results from 67 nations
No full textChanging collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors that associated with people reported adopting public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics
Le refus de voter la vente du seul bien d'une SCI en difficulté non constitutif d'un abus de minorité (note s/s Cass. com., 9 juin 2021, n° 19-17.161)
No full textLe refus d'un minoritaire de voter la vente du seul bien immobilier d'une SCI n'ayant plus la trésorerie nécessaire pour faire face à ses charges ne suffit pas à caractériser un abus de minorité. Il faut encore établir que ce refus avait pour unique objet de favoriser les propres intérêts du minoritaire au détriment des autres associé
Illustration d’un refus d’abus de minorité : l’opposition à la vente d’un bien d’une société en difficulté (Cass. Com., 9 juin 2021, n° 19-17.161)
No full textManagers’Productivity and Recruitment in the Public Sector: The Case of School Principals
No full textGovernments face many constraints in attracting talented managers to the public sector, where high-powered incentives are often absent. In this paper, we study how a civil service reform in Chile changed the effectiveness of a vital group of public sector managers, school principals. We measure principals’ e˙ectiveness using an extension of the canonical teacher value-added model and we evaluate the effect of the reform using a dfference-in-differences approach. We find that public schools appoint more effective managers after increasing the competitiveness and transparency of their se-lection process. Our result shows that better recruitment policies can enhance service provision in the public sector, despite rigid wage schemes