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Understanding Credit Demand: Exploring the Impact of Leverage and Return on Borrowing
Get PDFThis study presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the relationship between firm returns and credit demand. By examining the conditional distributions of return on borrowing and leverage, the framework investigates how changes in interest rates and the maximum leverage provision impact credit demand. The study emphasizes the role of the mean and standard deviation of these distributions and introduces the concept of elasticity to quantify the responsiveness of credit demand. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit demand and formulating effective economic policies. The framework offers a useful tool to assess the implications of interest rate and leverage provision changes on credit demand and support sustainable economic growth in the credit market
Choc exogène et stabilité macroéconomique
Get PDFThis article analyzes the impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic stability of the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting the country's high vulnerability due to its
overreliance on mineral exports and limited economic diversification. Using a multi-sectoral
econometric approach, the study reveals that external shocks such as global crises, pandemics,
and commodity price fluctuations result in prolonged economic adjustments up to eight years.
Key sectors like monetary aggregates and banking profitability are highly sensitive to
international conditions, whereas public debt, largely concessional, shows limited
responsiveness. The paper calls for ambitious structural reforms, including economic
diversification, counter-cyclical policies, improved management of mining revenues,
investment in human capital, and stronger governance to address institutional weaknesses and
enhance the DRC’s economic resilienc
Extracting O*NET Features from the NLx Corpus to Build Public Use Aggregate Labor Market Data
Get PDFData from online job postings are difficult to access and are not built in a standard or transparent manner. Data included in the standard taxonomy and occupational information database (O*NET) are updated infrequently and based on small survey samples. We adopt O*NET as a framework for building natural language processing tools that extract structured information from job postings. We publish the Job Ad Analysis Toolkit (JAAT), a collection of open-source tools built for this purpose, and demonstrate its reliability and accuracy in out-of-sample and LLM-as-judge testing. We extract more than 10 billion data points from more than 155 million online job ads provided by the National Labor Exchange (NLx) Research Hub, including O*NET tasks, occupation codes, tools, and technologies, as well as wages, skills, industry, and more features. We describe the construction of a dataset of occupation, state, and industry level features aggregated by monthly active jobs from 2015 – 2025. We illustrate the potential for research and future uses in education and workforce development
Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market
Get PDFSince 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi’s contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets approach closing, but they display a clear favorite–longshot bias: low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even, while high-price contracts win more often and yield small positive returns. We interpret these patterns with a simple framework that reflects Kalshi’s quote-driven microstructure. Makers—relatively well-informed traders who post offers—seek positive expected returns but may be slightly over-optimistic, while Takers accept these offers. The model predicts distinct patterns of favorite–longshot bias for Makers and Takers, and the data confirm these predictions
Unitization of Tanneries and Water Pollution in the Ganges in Kanpur, India: The Salience of Fixed Costs
Get PDFWe study the merits of regulating water pollution in the Ganges river caused by tanneries in Kanpur, India, by unitizing or merging the polluting tanneries. We first describe the � ≥ 2 polluting tanneries in Kanpur as a Cournot oligopoly in which all tanneries incur fixed and variable costs in producing leather. Second, we derive the Nash equilibrium output of leather and profits and discuss how many tanneries can survive in this equilibrium as a function of the fixed costs. Third, we permit � < � tanneries to merge and determine when this �-tannery merger is profitable to the unitized entity and to the non-unitized tanneries. Finally, we explain how the usefulness of unitization as a regulatory strategy depends on the magnitude of the tannery fixed costs and then comment on what our findings mean for improved water quality in the Ganges
Energy transition and economic growth in Colombia: A dynamic cge Model with Renewable Energies
Get PDFClimate change has gained significant relevance in recent years, encouraging many countries to implement decarbonization policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. While much attention has been paid to the design of these policies, there is a growing interest in analyzing their macroeconomic implications. This study evaluates the impact of the energy transition on economic growth in Colombia using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is calibrated for the year 2022 and simulates the Colombian energy economy over a ten-year horizon. Results indicate that an ambitious and sustained policy promoting non-conventional renewable energy could increase GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage points compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Additionally, climate shocks such as El Ni˜no may negatively affect economic performance; however, early investment in renewable energy technologies can partially offset these adverse effects
Analyzing the consequences of the delayed enactment of the Food and Nutrition Bill in Malawi
Get PDFMalawi has for a long time strived to achieve food security at country and household level albeit with little success. Policies and strategies adopted over time have inadvertently violated the Constitutional Obligation of right to food for each citizen. The consequences have been dire as more than half of the entire population barely find something to eat with no regard to personal nutritious requirements or exposure to toxins and other harmful substances. These problems would have been sorted out through the enactment of the Food and Nutrition Bill which has stalled for over twenty years. Malawi will fail to achieve SDG 2 if the status quo persists. Time to act is now. This requires a multifaceted approach and unison
Nowcasting del PIB argentino a través de un modelo de corrección de errores flexible
Get PDFThe article proposes a nowcasting model to estimate Argentina's seasonally adjusted Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) using a reduced set of high-frequency economic variables (tax revenue, Portland cement dispatches, automobile sales, and electricity demand), available with a 5–7-day lag, covering data from January 2015 to June 2025. A traditional error correction model (ECM) is compared with a flexible version (FECM) that incorporates time-varying coefficients. The FECM, with , outperforms the ECM in accuracy (MAPE of 0.35 versus 1.04). Electricity demand and cement production are the most relevant indicators, while tax revenue has a lower impact. However, it is recommended to retain all variables, as their contribution depends on their joint inclusion. Additionally, a hybrid model that recursively updates parameters is proposed, offering an efficient alternative for real-time economic monitoring
Financial Literacy for Women, A case of Malawi
No full textThe paper presents findings from a study carried out to assess the level of financial literacy among women in Malawi. A survey method was used, whereby a questionnaire was developed and administered through Google Forms. The findings indicate that financial literacy for women in Malawi is moderate. The study recommends more trainings on financial literacy for women in Malawi, and the findings indicate a willingness among women to participate in such trainings.
The study also recommends learning institutions, Ministry of finance, financial institutions and other players should enhance involvement of in financial literacy programs which should target both young and adult populations. The study will help inform other similar studies in the future considering that there is limited literature on the topic in Malawi and Africa at large. This research is the only one that has been carried out to indicate the levels of financial literacy for Women in Malawi
Between solidarity and concern: Refugee inflow and crime perception
No full textMost empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats