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Threatened, Mobilized, Distrustful: Social Trust in Ukraine’s War Context
No full textSocial trust constitutes a central component of social cohesion, a key determinant of economic development, and a foundational element of stable and effective democratic systems. Exposure to violence can undermine trust by disrupting collective cooperation and altering the established patterns of social interaction. This study uses the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war to explore how social trust changes during conflict, while distinguishing between two primary influences – ideological and experiential. The former are defined as individuals’ alignment with wartime ideologies. The latter are limited to perceived deteriorations in personal safety and mental health caused by experiences of violence. The analysis is based on structural equation modelling, using data collected from 1,224 respondents through an online survey conducted in 2024. The findings show that experiential influences erode trust not only directly but also indirectly, mainly through reduced confidence in state institutions. Ideological influences provide a partial buffer against these negative consequences, insufficient, however, to offset them. As a result, the net effect of the war on social trust remains negative and sizeable among Ukrainians
La ley del descenso tendencial de la tasa de ganancia: Evidencia empírica para la economía española
No full textThis article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital (c), variable capital (v), and surplus value (pv). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital (q), the rate of surplus value (pv'), and the rate of profit (g') are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in q and a slight decrease in pv', generating a tendential decline in g' with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability
Tariffs and deglobalization. Is globalization going backwards?
Get PDFThis paper examines the current use of tariffs and the emerging trend of deglobalization, seeking to understand whether globalization is reversing. The contribution analyzes how rising protectionist policies—particularly the imposition of tariffs—have become significant catalysts in reversing global economic integration. The primary aim of this study is to examine the evolution of globalization and identify the key factors influencing it, drawing on a review of relevant literature and an analysis of a globalization index. Furthermore, the paper investigates the relationship between tariff implementation and the broader trend of deglobalization. The study employs an analytical-descriptive approach.
Globalization is defined by extensive interconnectedness and integration, with cross-border exchanges facilitated by advances in technology, communication, and transportation. Since the 1980s, it has constituted a major driving force in the expansion of international trade and the restructuring of the global economy. This trajectory persisted until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which precipitated a severe disruption to global economic activity. A subsequent recovery continued until April 2025, when the United States administration implemented tariffs on imports from a range of countries. These measures—subsequently modified on several occasions through bilateral negotiations or unilateral U.S. actions—impose varying rates according to the country of origin and the category of goods traded. The present study examines the potential implications of these policy interventions, with particular attention to their prospective long-term effects on global trade dynamics
Analyzing the Shire Valley Transformation Project in Malawi through the lens of the SDGs
Get PDFIt is natural that gigantic projects attract intense scrutiny
and constant evaluation. This is the case with the Shire
Valley Transformation Programme (SVTP) which is
currently USD520 million undertaking for both Phase I
and II but Phase II costing will be determined in its project
life running from 2018 through 2031. This study subjected
SVTP to the basic SDGs Evaluation Model and it shows
that there are so many gaps which must be addressed for
the project to be SDGs compliant and have meaningful
impact to Malawi and indeed its citizens. The sooner the
observable deficiencies are addressed the better for
Malawi
Dividende démographique ou désastre démographique pour l'Afrique ? Un continent à la croisée des chemins
Get PDFAs the world’s youngest region, Africa has the potential to reap a significant demographic dividend, which could boost economic growth, drive innovation, and reshape global labour markets. As the continent progresses through its demographic transition, changes in age distribution, workforce composition and dependency ratios will have wide-reaching consequences for economic growth, social services and development planning. While demographic trends offer an unprecedented opportunity, policy and governance will ultimately determine whether this potential is realised. Supporting Africa’s demographic journey is not only a matter of global equity, but also in the interest of achieving long-term stability and prosperity. In Africa, the proportion of the working-age population to the total population is still growing and will peak shortly after 2070. However, Africa’s peak worker-to-dependent ratio will be low, which translates into relatively modest potential for rapid economic growth. With few exceptions, average economic growth rates in Africa are too slow and population growth rates too high to enable the continent to rapidly reduce poverty or raise average incomes. Although fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have begun to decline. According to UN projections, these rates will continue to fall in the coming decades, meaning that by the mid-21st century, the ratio of the working-age population to the dependent population will be higher than in Asia, Europe and North America. Africa has considerable potential to benefit from a demographic dividend. Whether, when and to what extent this occurs hinges on policies and institutions in key areas such as macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labour and capital markets. If African countries can continue to build on their hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11–15% of gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2030, reducing the number of people living in poverty by 40–60 million. The continent is set to become a population superpower. Its proportion of the world's population is increasing in an unprecedented manner, especially relative to Europe, and its inhabitants are younger than ever. The youth bulge heading Africa's way is real and, in the next 30 years, it will present African states with economic, social, and political problems the likes of which the world has never witnessed before. This demographic surge is neither a catastrophe nor a boon; it is a wicked problem
Combining machine learning techniques with NDEA methodology: the use of R.F. and A.N.N.
Get PDFThe objective of the present work is to combine NDEA approach with machine learning techniques and neural networks. At this end we exploit the models proposed in Pinto, 2024. The integration process involves the application of a machine learning technique upstream of the resolution of NDEA models and the application of an artificial neural network downstream the resolution of a NDEA models. In particular here we propose the application of a Random Forest algorithm in regression models to adjust data on: 1) input and output, 2) resource allocation preferences among sub-processes, 3) cost budgets, revenue targets and profit targets, from the influence of internal and external factors in order to improve the calculation of optimal weights. Downstream of the resolution of NDEA models, the use of several artificial neural network models is to prosed to optimise the calculation of the economic quantities of interest derived from optimal NDEA solutions. The approach enhances the discrimination power and robustness of optimal NDEA weights as well as the robustness of the calculation of formulas of the economic quatities
On the political economy of nonlinear income taxation
Get PDFThe political economy setting of voting over general nonlinear income taxes with labor disincentives and information asymmetry in consumer/worker/voter types is considered. The economy is the realization of a finite draw from a continuous distribution. The revenue required from a draw is determined by Pareto optimal provision of a public good for that draw. Assuming that the government must meet the revenue requirement for any possible draw, in other words the tax is robust, a majority rule equilibrium is shown to exist at the median voter's preferred tax function out of this robust set
Структурный анализ критического импорта и его влияние на экономическое развитие региона
Get PDFЦелью работы является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих взаимосвязь критического импорта и экономического роста регионов. Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов СЗФО, а также степень их влияния на промышленный рост субъектов Север-Западного федерального округа.
The aim of the work is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District
Revisiting the Euro through Joseph E. Stiglitz’s Perspective: A Review of the “Euro. How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe “.
Get PDFThere was a time in which political authorities and decision makers were not collaborating with anybody else – here including scientific persons and bodies(authorities) – about documents that they were enacting. Such a typical aspect was easy noticed in the case of the international organization of “Latin Monetary Union” (1865-1927), of which’s written status at its time was including some exemplarily hilarious phrases. A new significant moment was the one of the international Conference hosted at Bretton-Woods in 1944 for a new international monetary system to replace the former gold standard – i.e. a tense dialogue between the hosting American administration and the famous JM Keynes, formally the UK’s representative, actually the lonely one in the audience with his own such IMS project and a legend in the area of economics. Briefly, there was a time of lack of or of not yet experience in relating the economic life and reality to the economic thinking. Economics, as a science, unlike physics or chemistry, to which the Nobel Prize is also addressed and which are natural and exact sciences, stays dominated by theories (instead of scientific postulates), so by the dialogue, despite not exactly like in democracy. In such an order, also economics stays different than the real economic life and even than the last’s specific policies applied. Just a natural mutual approaching each-other does complete this landscape since the times in which there was rather no contacts, but nothing could here be sudden or automatic. Today there is to be noticed and why not applauded the good habit in which Nobel Prizes' laureates do address to the communities about current issues in the specialty. Previously, in 1993 Paul Krugman, another Nobel Prize winner in his turn, had issued his “Lessons of Massachusetts for the EMU” and also other examples could be given
The Phase Diagram of Debt-to-GDP Limit and Debt-Financing of Interest
Get PDFThis paper proposes an alternative way of assessing government debt sustainability – instead of focusing on the absolute level of debt-to-GDP ratio, compute the time it takes before the government is compelled, if ever, to finance debt interest with additional debt, a condition I refer to as “Defit” (Debt-Financing of Interest), to distinguish it from Default. Defit occurs when the government’s annual revenue falls short of annual debt interest obligation, which is equivalent to the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching the threshold x/r, where x is the effective tax rate of the government revenue and r the average interest rate on outstanding debt. The paper derives the sufficient and necessary conditions of Defitting, and the formula for time to Defit in terms of observable economic and fiscal inputs. The present analysis departs from the prior literature as it models the joint dynamics of government cash and debt balances, establishing a link between the debt-to-GDP ratio and the debt-to-cash ratio. This approach yields a more precise characterization of debt-to-GDP divergence, particularly in relation to the differential g-r, where g is the nominal GDP growth rate. The result replaces the absolute level of primary surplus with the differential s-r, where s is the ratio of primary surplus to primary outlays