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Modeling and Forecasting the Probability of Crypto-Exchange Closures: A Forecast Combination Approach
Get PDFThe popularity of cryptocurrency exchanges has surged in recent years, accompanied by the proliferation of new digital platforms and tokens. However, the issue of credit risk and the reliability of crypto exchanges remain critical, highlighting the need for indicators to assess the safety of investing through these platforms. This study examines a unique, hand-collected dataset of 228 cryptocurrency exchanges operating between April 2011 and May 2024. Using various machine learning algorithms, we identify the key factors contributing to exchange shutdowns, with trading volume, exchange lifespan, and cybersecurity scores emerging as the most significant predictors. Since individual machine learning models often capture distinct data characteristics and exhibit varying error patterns, we employ a forecast combination approach by aggregating multiple predictive distributions. Specifically, we evaluate several specifications of the generalized linear pool (GLP), beta-transformed linear pool (BLP), and beta-mixture combination (BMC). Our findings reveal that the beta-transformed linear pool and the beta-mixture combination achieve the best performances, improving forecast accuracy by approximately 4.1% based on a robust H-measure, which effectively addresses the challenges of misclassification in imbalanced datasets
El impacto del teletrabajo en el bienestar laboral: Evidencia para Alemania
Get PDFThis paper analyzes the impact of telework on job well-being in Germany, using data from the 2015 European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Using an empirical analysis based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models, four key dimensions of job well-being are examined: job satisfaction, work-family balance, anxiety and fatigue. The results show that factors such as age, education and hours worked have a significant impact on these dimensions. In addition, a non-linear pattern is observed in the influence of age, where the initial negative effects diminish in later stages of working life. This study contributes to the understanding of telework dynamics in an advanced European context and suggests the need for policies that promote an appropriate balance between work demands and personal well-being
Model Risk Management in the Era of Generative AI: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Directions
Get PDFThe rapid adoption of generative AI in various sectors, particularly in finance, has introduced new challenges and opportunities for model risk management (MRM). This paper provides a comprehensive review of the current state of MRM in the context of generative AI, focusing on the risks, regulatory frameworks, and mitigation strategies. We explore the implications of generative AI on financial institutions, the evolving regulatory landscape, and the role of advanced MRM frameworks in ensuring compliance and mitigating risks. By synthesizing insights from 50+ recent articles, this paper aims to provide a roadmap for future research and practical applications of MRM in the generative AI era. It examines the key risks associated with these models, including bias, lack of transparency, and potential for misuse, and explores the regulatory frameworks and best practices being developed to mitigate these risks. We delve into the specific challenges faced by financial institutions in adapting their MRM strategies to encompass generative AI, and highlight the emerging tools and technologies that can support effective risk management.
This paper also discusses quantitative methods for risk quantification, such as probabilistic frameworks, Monte Carlo simulations, and adversarial risk metrics, which are essential for assessing the reliability and robustness of generative AI models. Foundational metrics, including fairness measures like demographic parity and equalized odds, are explored to address bias and ensure ethical AI deployment. Additionally, the paper presents pseudocode for key algorithms, such as risk quantification and adversarial risk calculation, to provide a practical understanding of these methods. A detailed gap analysis identifies critical shortcomings in current MRM frameworks, such as the lack of standardized validation methods and inadequate handling of adversarial robustness. Based on these gaps, the paper proposes solutions, including the development of advanced validation frameworks, integration of fairness metrics, and alignment with regulatory standards. These findings and proposals aim to guide financial institutions in adopting generative AI responsibly while addressing the unique risks it poses. This paper serves as a valuable resource for professionals and researchers seeking to understand and navigate the complexities of MRM in the age of generative AI
Financial stability determinants in Nigeria: role of profitability, capital regulation, financial inclusion, inflation, unemployment and economic growth
Get PDFThis study investigates the determinants of financial stability in Nigeria. The two-stage least squares regression and fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods were used to estimate the determinants of financial stability in Nigeria from 2002 to 2021. The findings reveal that banking sector return on asset, regulatory capital ratio, the level of financial inclusion, economic growth, inflation and the total unemployment rate are significant determinants of financial stability in Nigeria. Return on asset and the rate of unemployment have a significant positive impact on financial stability. The regulatory capital ratio, the level of financial inclusion, economic growth and inflation have a significant negative impact on financial stability in Nigeria. The implication of the findings is that high bank profitability (or high return on asset), low regulatory capital ratio and low inflation are crucial for financial stability in Nigeria. The results suggest that policymakers in Nigeria should use a mix of macroprudential and macroeconomic policy tools to ensure that banks remain profitable, maintain a minimum regulatory capital ratio and operate in a low inflation and low unemployment environment in order to preserve financial stability in Nigeria
The Inequality Trap: Why Sub-Saharan Africa Struggles to Escape Poverty
Get PDFThe issue of poverty in Africa is well-known and widely researched. Around a third of the world's poorest people live in Africa. Evidence from more recent years suggests that inequality may be an even greater challenge in Africa than in other developing regions. High levels of poverty and inequality persist in Africa despite it being one of the fastest-growing regions of the last decade. In particular, six of the world's ten fastestgrowing economies between 2001 and 2010 were in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Initial inequality reduces the ability of growth to reduce poverty, and even more so if inequality rises during the growth process. Although income inequality fell by 4.3% between 1990 and 2009, Africa remains the second most unequal region globally, after Latin America and the Caribbean. Inequality not only dampens the poverty-reducing impact of growth and lowers the growth rate, but also hollows out the middle class, encourages corruption and rent-seeking, increases crime and violence, undermines social stability and precludes sustained growth. Growth trends in sub-Saharan Africa are not significantly different to those of other developing countries that have fallen into a poverty trap. The combination of endemic poverty, high inequality and low growth is a major obstacle to poverty reduction and overall socioeconomic development in much of Africa. Multidimensional inequality is deeply entrenched in much of Africa and exhibits vertical and horizontal dimensions that hinder human development. The roots of inequality lie in the colonial past and have been reinforced by institutions that limited access and were established by the colonisers and maintained by generations of African leaders since then. Attention should also be paid to the diachronic dimensions of inequality, especially how inequality changes over individuals' lifetimes and its effect on intergenerational mobility. As effective democratic practices take firmer root on the continent, it can be expected that pressure for general and inclusive social redistribution will increase. Providing social protection contributes to reducing poverty and inequality in Africa. Additionally, rising income inequality contributes to increased CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, an increase in poverty has a detrimental effect on environmental pollution in sub-Saharan African countries. Over half of adults infected with HIV in Africa are female, yet poverty and social structures still prevent many women from protecting themselves. Current strategies to change HIV-related behaviours continue to fail women and girls in Africa
Health Matters in Social Security Disability Insurance Participation: Panel Study of Income Dynamics
Get PDFThis paper investigates the independent roles of health deterioration and employment status in determining future enrollment in Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID, 2005–2019), this research introduces the frailty index—an objective health measure that aggregates cumulative deficits across physical, cognitive, and social dimensions—to overcome limitations associated with self-reported health metrics. Employing a fixed-effects panel regression model, the analysis reveals that higher frailty scores significantly increase the likelihood of transitioning to SSDI within two years. Employment status further modulates this effect, with temporarily disabled, laid-off, and individuals
keeping house exhibiting heightened vulnerability due to pre-existing health impairments and economic instability. Subgroup analyses indicate substantial variation in effects by education, gender, and race, underscoring the interplay between health status, employment vulnerability, and systemic inequalities. Robustness checks confirm the consistency of these findings. These results highlight the necessity of targeted early-intervention health strategies and policies addressing employment instability to mitigate premature reliance on disability benefits
Exploring the Role of Language in the Uptake of Agricultural Inputs Among Smallholder Farmers: Insights from a Pilot Study in Chalimbana University, Zambia
Get PDFThis pilot study examines the role of language in the adoption and correct use of agricultural inputs among smallholder farmers in Zambia. Conducted with 15 farmers from linguistically diverse communities, the research explores how language preferences, comprehension levels, and communication channels shape decision-making around agricultural technologies. Despite high levels of formal education among participants, many expressed a strong preference for receiving agricultural information in local languages such as Bemba, Nyanja, Soli, Tonga, Lozi, and Lamba. Language barriers particularly those involving English-only labels and technical jargon were found to contribute to misinterpretation of instructions, misuse of inputs, and crop losses. The study also revealed limited engagement with extension officers and a growing reliance on agro-dealers and online platforms, raising concerns about the accessibility and accuracy of information. Findings emphasize the need for multilingual labelling, visual aids, and culturally resounding communication methods in agricultural extension and input dissemination. By highlighting the critical link between language, comprehension, and input adoption, the study calls for policy and programmatic attention to linguistic inclusion as a core element of agricultural development. The results provide a foundation for larger-scale research and offer practical recommendations to improve communication strategies in Zambia’s multilingual farming communities
Banking Sector Development and FDI in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the SCO using a CCE-PMG Approach
Get PDFThis study investigates the relationship between domestic banking development and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) economies, including Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, from 2000 to 2023. Using a panel econometric framework that combines the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator with Pesaran’s Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach, the results show a positive long-run association between banking sector development and FDI. Granger causality analysis provides evidence of a unidirectional relationship, indicating that the development of the banking sector statistically precedes and is strongly associated with foreign investment. The positive long-run association highlights the crucial role of robust banking systems as domestic anchors for investment and as key components of regional economic resilience. The results yield two principal policy implications. First, strengthening domestic banking institutions is an important national strategy for enhancing attractiveness to foreign capital. Second, coordinated efforts among SCO countries are necessary to manage shared economic vulnerabilities and to improve the bloc’s collective investment appeal
Turkey’s monetary policy shows inertia, regime shifts, and Taylor rule breach
Get PDFThis study estimates Turkey’s monetary policy reaction function over 2005–2025 using quarterly data and a suite of OLS, ARDL, and ECM specifications. The results reveal pronounced interest-rate smoothing and a sub-Taylor inflation semi-elasticity, while output gaps, unemployment indicators, and real exchange rate pressures contribute little explanatory power once persistence is controlled. Rolling regressions uncover regime dependence. Responsiveness was moderate under early inflation targeting, strengthened during the 2018 crisis tightening, collapsed under the post-2021 heterodox easing, and has only partially recovered with the return to orthodoxy after mid-2023. Formal stability diagnostics, including CUSUM, Quandt–Andrews, Chow, and Bai–Perron procedures, locate structural breaks clustered around 2018 and 2021, delineating three regimes: pre-2018 experimentation, crisis-induced orthodoxy from 2018 to 2021, and post-2021 heterodoxy. Across specifications, the long-run response to inflation remains below one for one and the speed of error correction is slow, implying weak tethering to a rule-like anchor. Policy implications are direct. Durable disinflation requires a transparent reaction function with more than unit inflation pass-through, faster adjustment, and institutional commitments that prevent episodic reversals and rebuild credibility
Воспроизводство, Циклы и Критика СНС: Переосмысление Проблемы Воспроизводства
Get PDFThe monograph is devoted to a theoretical rethinking of the processes of simple, expanded, and contracted reproduction in a market economy and to a critique of the methodological foundations of the System of National Accounts (SNA). It shows that the inclusion of depreciation in gross product, as established in the SNA, is a methodological error that distorts macroeconomic indicators. As an alternative, the study substantiates the necessity of calculating gross product on the basis of net capital formation. On the basis of Smith’s Dogma and a reconstruction of K. Marx’s schemes, the conditions of equivalent exchange are formulated with clarifications: rent is treated as an independent form of income, profit is divided into consumed and saved parts, and depreciation is interpreted as redistribution rather than newly created value. Special attention is given to the problem of unfinished capital goods production. The key result of the research is the application of the Symmetric Model, which extends the principle of interaction between the two departments in Marx’s schemes to the entire set of branches, including households. The model is built on the methodological foundations of second-order dialectics, second-order cybernetics, and social constructivism. It helps explain the nature of cycles and crises as immanent forms of the reproduction process under the conditions of spontaneous self-regulation of a competitive economy. A separate chapter is devoted to reproduction under monopolization and financialization. It shows that the concentration of profit and the redistribution of resources in favor of the financial sector undermine the circular organization of the economy, distort the equivalence of exchange, and reinforce structural imbalances. Monopolization, inequality, and financialization are considered as factors that drive the market economy into systemic crisis. The concluding part of the monograph discusses the possibilities of mathematical formalization of reproduction processes. The Symmetric Model provides a foundation for constructing dynamic systems that describe interactions between sectors and factors of production. This enables stability analysis, the identification of endogenous sources of cycles, and the design of regulatory methods based on simulation modeling. The Appendices include AI Commentaries, which demonstrate new possibilities for analyzing and interpreting complex economic problems with the assistance of AI. This format combines rigorous theoretical argumentation with elements of additional verification and methodological validation provided by AI.
The work is intended for researchers and practitioners in economic theory, macroeconomics, and institutional analysis, as well as all those interested in reproduction, crises, and the reform of the SNA