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A Decision-Support Model for Managing Outbound Logistics: Forecasting, Simulation, and Real-Time Operational Control
Get PDFThis article presents a decision support system developed as part of a Research and Development project undertaken by La Logistica srl, a third-party logistics company specializing in the storage and
distribution of hydro-sanitary products. The approach is methodological and focuses on the comprehensive analysis of a case study related to freight exit processes with the aim of defining and implementing a software application to support the short-term management of picking and loading operations for product delivery. The developed decision support system integrates past data series
analysis and projections, time series simulations, What-If analysis capabilities, and real-time monitoring within a single computational paradigm to anticipate peak points in the freight exit process. The developed decision support system is designed to accumulate and structure operational data from the warehouse management system software, to analyse the periodic rhythms of orders
received to generate graphical projections of expected peak points and working hours based on the analysis of past data series and is able to dynamically review projections via real-time monitoring
capabilities to adapt projections to actual progress made at any given time. Additionally, What-If analytics capabilities facilitate management's use of various workforce combinations to determine the feasibility of the process at any time, while identifying potential bottlenecks before they occur. Test results conducted with the corporate team indicate improvements in workload visibility and readiness for associated short-term programming strategies, while preventing operational disruptions through advance alerts on operational overload points
International Sanctions, Trade Integration, and Macroeconomic Indicators: Sectoral Evidence from Russia.
Get PDFThis study investigates the effects of geopolitical risk, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rate dynamics, and international sanctions on the sectors’ global value chains (GVCs) participation for the Russian economy. Panel data across eight selected sectors was used. Data were analyzed using descriptive and Difference-in-Difference method. The study finds no significant impact of geopolitical risks on sectoral GVC participation. This implies there is an evidence of short term resilience or perhaps internal substitution strategies. However, a rise in exchange rate (depreciation) significantly increase GVC forward participation. FDI as a percentage of GDP exhibit a positive but statistically weak influence on forward GVC participation, highlighting the partial effectiveness of investment-led integration under sanctions. Policy interventions on the treated sectors did not yield measurable gains in trade integration following sanctions. Stark disparities exist in the sectoral analysis. Capital-intensive and export-oriented sectors like petroleum and electricity recorded significantly higher GVC participation relative to wood, while textiles and food processing lagged behind, indicating evidence of vulnerabilities in low-tech and domestically dependent industries. It is recommended that policy meant to stabilize domestic currency and promote a competitive currency should be prioritized to maintain Russia’s GVC integration under sanctions. However, long term sustainability hinge on sector-specific strategies and her ability to restore foreign direct investment
Плагиатството като основание за освобождаване от академична длъжност
Get PDFQuestions related to the employment relations of workers and employees are regulated by a general normative act - the Labour Code. While the employment relations of the academic staff of higher education institutions and scientific organisations are regulated by special legislation compared to the Labour Code - the Higher Education Act, the Development of Academic Staff in the Republic of Bulgaria Act, the Regulation on the Application of the Development of Academic Staff in the Republic of Bulgaria Act, as well as by internal acts of educational and scientific institutions. Accordingly, the grounds for termination of the individual employment relationship with members of the academic staff are also specific. The scientific aim of the present work is to examine plagiarism as a specific ground for dismissal of academic staff members. As a result of the analysis of the provisions of the national legislation, conclusions and summaries are drawn concerning its application and improvement
The Insurance Literacy and its Measurement: Some Theoretical Issues
Get PDFThis study provides an overview of main academic research on insurance literacy. We identify main challenges of quantitative measurement of financial or insurance literacy of the population.
We made an attempt was made to identify the set of factors that determine the level of insurance coverage (with accident and health insurance as an example), which can be used to predict the level of insurance literacy
Predicting Corporate ESG Scores from Financial Performance and Environmental Indicators: A Machine Learning Framework
Get PDFAs investors, regulators, and the public increasingly emphasize sustainable investment amid growing climate concerns, the accurate prediction of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics has become a crucial complement to traditional assessment methods. This study analyzes 1,000 companies across nine industries and seven regions between 2015 and 2025 to predict overall ESG scores using key financial and environmental indicators. To ensure robust predictive performance, a diverse set of machine learning algorithms—including Linear Regression, Random Forests, and four boosting models (AdaBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost)—was employed. To address potential bias in panel data, a panel-aware machine learning framework incorporating GroupKFold cross-validation was implemented. The results show that boosting algorithms consistently outperform traditional linear approaches in predicting ESG scores. Among them, CatBoost achieved the best overall performance, with the lowest RMSE (4.608), MAE (2.222), and MSE (21.234), and the highest R² (0.913), indicating strong predictive accuracy. Overall, this study presents an innovative and transferable framework for predicting ESG scores, thus contributing to both empirical research and quantitative modeling practices. Furthermore, it advances the sustainability field by providing a machine learning–based application that enables companies to predict their ESG scores in real time
Understanding Borrowing Behaviour in the EU: The Role of Mobile Payments, Financial Literacy, and Financial Access
Get PDFThis paper examines the impact of mobile payments, financial literacy, and access to formal financial systems on borrowing practices among individuals residing in the European Union. It utilises data from the 2023 Flash Eurobarometer 525 and predicts the probability of consumer loan ownership through a logistic regression model. The analysis shows that borrowers generally possess higher financial literacy, suggesting an empowered approach to managing debt. Surprisingly, users of digital financial services tend to borrow less, potentially indicating that they prefer alternative tools or manage their finances more prudently. Moreover, possessing financial products such as savings accounts, mortgages, and insurance increases the likelihood of borrowing, whereas access to long-term investment products like pensions is linked with lower borrowing levels. These results suggest that borrowing decisions are partially influenced by access to financial instruments, individual financial knowledge, attitudes towards digital finance, and targeted policies emphasising education alongside comprehensive financial strategies
Sustainable digital finance: where we are now and where we need to be
No full textSustainable digital finance is a topic of growing interest among sustainability advocates who are seeking ways to influence digital financial services providers to offer sustainability-oriented digital financial services. This study defines sustainable digital finance, identifies some characteristics of the emerging sustainable digital finance sector and forecasts what sustainable digital finance should be in the future. The study shows the emergence of digitalisation policies, digital finance policies, sustainability and climate change policies, a low interest in sustainable digital finance, a general reluctance towards sustainable digital finance, the rise of green washing by digital finance providers, and the growing interest in sustainable digital finance information among members of the public. The study also shows what sustainable digital finance should be in the future. It forecasts a future where there are environmental, social and governance (ESG)-compliant digital finance laws and regulations, a well-developed sustainable digital finance sandbox to develop sustainability-oriented digital financial services, the emergence of international standards for sustainable digital finance, an ecosystem where digital finance tools are used to promote environmental sustainability, and a self-regulatory environment where the industry takes the lead in developing sustainable digital finance initiatives
Globalization and the Border Effect: A Geo-Economic Gravity Model of Trade Between the Maghreb and the European Union
No full textThis paper examines the theoretical foundations and methodological challenges of assessing border effects in international trade. The border effect serves as an empirical tool to evaluate economic integration by analyzing trade flows and internal exchanges within a region or country. Using gravity models, which effectively capture the impact of economic size, distance, and trade agreements on bilateral trade, this study investigates the trade relationship between the Union of the Maghreb (UMA) and the European Union (EU) from 1995 to 2016. The findings indicate a significant border effect, with intra-Maghreb trade being 3.68 times higher than trade between the UMA and the EU, despite preferential agreements with Europe. Globalization has transformed the role of borders, yet they remain crucial in shaping trade and economic policies. While the Maghreb belongs to multiple regional organizations, its economic integration remains limited, reinforcing dependence on the EU. Additionally, security concerns, including migration and counterterrorism, increasingly influence trade relations. The study concludes that globalization does not eliminate borders but redefines them. Despite increased connectivity and trade liberalization, economic, political, and security factors continue to shape international trade dynamics, highlighting the enduring significance of borders in global economic relations
Agrarian governance - the case of Bulgaria
No full textThe term governance is widely used in a number of scientific disciplines, as well as by international, state, business, non-governmental, etc. organizations. The interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics has contributed greatly to the modern understanding of the nature and factors of governance in general, and of governance in individual areas of social activity and levels of analysis – from the governance of individual transactions to the governance of global affairs. Almost ninety years after the “discovery” of transaction costs by Coase (1937) and the “reasons” for the existence of economic organizations of different types, today this “new” methodology is an integral part of the general (mainstream) economic theory and analysis. Of course, Williamson (1985) - in operationalizing this concept, and North (1991) - in revealing the role of institutions in economic development, significantly contributed to the development of the New Institutional Economics. Many other economists have also made a great contribution to the development of this new "branch" of economic science, which has been well summarized by Furubotn and Richter (2005) and Ménard and Shirley (2022).
The author of this study was among the first to adapt the achievements of the New Institutional Economics in the analysis of agrarian governance and institutional modernization in Bulgaria (Bachev, 1996) and elsewhere (Bachev, 1995). Over the past three decades, Bulgarian economists have made numerous publications with analyses of the forms, factors, effectiveness and evolution of the governance of the main types of agrarian transactions, farmer organizations, and levels of governance during the period of transformation, pre-accession and full membership of the country in the European Union (https://agro-governance.alle.bg/#). Here we would like to underline our close cooperation with the leading scholars in the institutional analysis of agrarian contracts and organizations from the University of Missouri in the USA, which began in 1992 and has been deepening to the present day. We are especially grateful to Michael Cook and Michael Sykuta for their training, inspiration, continuous support and long-term cooperation.
The paper presents the results of current research in the field of agrarian governance in Bulgaria. Without claiming to be comprehensive, it provides an idea of the Bulgarian experience in agrarian governance, and of the modest Bulgarian contribution to the implementation of the institutional analysis of the modes and mechanisms of agrarian governance.
First, a holistic approach to understanding and analysing agrarian governance is presented. Then, the economic role of agrarian contracts is revealed, their types are classified, and an approach to assessing their effectiveness is presented. This is followed by an assessment of the quality of the system of agrarian governance in Bulgaria at the present stage of development. Then, an analysis of the governance and contractual structures of major functional areas of Bulgarian farms is made. Then, the forms, factors and effectiveness of land and labour supplies in Bulgarian farms are identified. The identification of modes, factors and efficiency of the provision of ecosystem services by the Bulgarian farms follows. After that, the levels and evolution of governance efficiency of Bulgarian farms are evaluated. Then, a holistic assessment of the comparative and absolute competitiveness of Bulgarian farms is made. Finally, the state, evolution, efficiency and factors of governance of agricultural inclusion in sustainable wastewater management in Bulgaria are presented
Venture Capital and Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Assessment of Growth and Employment Dynamics
No full textThis study investigates the influence of venture capital investments and their proportion relative to gross domestic product on two key macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product growth rate and unemployment rate. By analyzing data from 13 countries over the period 2014 to 2021, the research seeks to clarify the impact of venture capital metrics using a range of statistical techniques, including descriptive statistics, correlation and covariance assessments, panel ordinary least squares, and panel generalized method of moments. The results from the panel ordinary least squares regression indicate that both dependent variables, gross domestic product growth rate and unemployment rate, exhibit limited explanatory power concerning the impact of venture capital metrics. Even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and incorporating dynamic specifications and endogeneity adjustments, the results remain largely unchanged. The empirical findings further indicate that gross domestic product growth rates are non-stationary, while unemployment rates are stationary, underscoring the greater importance of structural and policy-driven factors in shaping economic performance. The only notable result from this analysis is the significant persistence of gross domestic product growth rates through their own lagged values, which emphasizes the primacy of historical economic trends over external capital inflows. Overall, the results reveal that venture capital metrics do not have a statistically significant or economically meaningful effect on either gross domestic product growth rate or unemployment rate. These findings challenge the commonly held assumption that venture capital metrics directly influence or enhance key macroeconomic indicators. Consequently, policymakers should view venture capital investments as secondary rather than primary drivers of economic growth and employment, and should instead prioritize comprehensive strategies focused on education, labor market reforms, and institutional development to achieve sustained macroeconomic progress