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What's Next After Achieving 100% Level of Financial Inclusion?
Get PDFThis study considers a world where it is possible to attain full financial inclusion where full financial inclusion means achieving a 100% level of financial inclusion in whichever way financial inclusion is measured. It was argued that increasing the level of financial inclusion is a priority for policymakers in developing countries while many developed countries have already attained a high level of financial inclusion. After the highest possible level of financial inclusion has been attained, countries that have achieved such a feat will think about what next can be done about financial inclusion. This article addresses this issue and offers insights into the course of action that countries can take after achieving full financial inclusion in whichever way financial inclusion is measured. This study also explores the philosophical nature of this question by casting some light into whether attaining full financial inclusion is a worthwhile goal for policymakers to focus on. The insights offered in this study are useful to scholars, policymakers and those responsible for increasing financial inclusion in their countries
Coalitional substitution of players and the proportional Shapley value
Get PDFWe present a new axiomatization of the proportional Shapley Value. Our study is based on three axioms: efficiency, which ensures that the total worth of the grand coalition is fully distributed among the players; the disjointly productive players property, which states that removing a player who has no cooperative interactions with another player does not affect that player's payoff; and a new axiom that makes the difference to the classical Shapley value. This axiom, the coalitional substitution of players property, involves a scenario in which a player's cooperative contribution to a coalition is replaced by that of a group of new players whose combined individual worths match that of the original player. The key point is that the payoffs to the remaining players remain unaffected
Monetary Theory of Macro Accounting for Supply Chain Finance
Get PDFWe present a monetary theory where money is taken primarily as a medium of debt repayment and not as a medium of exchange. Money and products are exchanged in reciprocal contracts of disposals of property rights within two-sided obligation contracts. Money demand arises because production takes time and producers need to pay suppliers of resources before they are paid at markets for their products. Accordingly, money is part of monetary systems of macro accounting for supply chain finance where producers are exchanging their products for money in order to repay loans of investments. We take advantage of two legal principles of separation and abstraction in order to clarify the concepts of obligations, debts, claims, disposals, property rights or money. Monetary systems exist to organise the division of labour at the micro level of economies. At the meso level of banking money helps to organise the sharing of risks from investments. At the macro level monetary systems help to distribute the product of the common productive effort (GDP). We analyse macro (aka quadruple accounting) systems composed as parallel bookings in one or more micro (aka double) accounting systems of the agents exchanging products and money in networks of obligations created by contracts. We use the Bill of Exchange (BoE) as the financial instrument to unify views on paper, gold and fractional monetary systems and to understand how to book money creation at central banks. We propose to keep track of invariances of accounting systems over micro, meso and macro levels of economies by sheaf theory and homology theory to detect and resolve inconsistencies as the mathematical foundation of monetary policy. We discuss open games as an implementation technology for monetary macro accounting (MoMa) systems in reduced form (Markov) models and for the analysis of data for a structural analysis by models of belief formation or multi-agent systems. We also discuss industrial applications of our monetary theory
Absolute, global, authoritarian Capitalism. Approaching the last stop of the Capitalist Algorithm
Get PDFThis paper describes the features of the type of capitalism that will emerge if in the next five to ten years the ruling classes of today’s major superpowers - the USA, China, and Russia - unite and form a global exploitative ruling class. The essential properties of this unification process are discussed in detail and it is shown why the potentially possible new stage of global capitalism has its faultlines
The Vicious Cycle between Demography and War
Get PDFThis paper highlights a vicious circle between demography and war. Countries face the choice between two possible equilibria. The first equilibrium is characterized by high fertility rates, a predominantly young population with a low median age, and a high risk of conflict.
In contrast, the second equilibrium is marked by low fertility rates, higher life expectancy, an aging population, and no youth bulge which increase the probability of conflict and war.
The data emphasize that countries with high fertility rates, above five children per woman, face a 75% likelihood of experiencing conflict. In contrast, countries with fertility rates below two exhibit less than an 8% probability of conflict.
This paper presents a new framework in which fertility rates and the probability of conflict are endogenously determined, leading to multiple equilibrium outcomes. The core idea is that high fertility rates increase the likelihood of conflict due to the "youth bulge" phenomenon. Conversely, war and conflict—by causing high mortality among soldiers—motivate families to increase their birth rates. This reciprocal dynamic results in multiple possible equilibria.
As a result, the world faces regional disparities in conflict and population growth. On the one hand, there are countries characterized by low fertility rates, an aging population, and high capital stock, which experience low conflict probabilities. In contrast, there are regions such as parts of Africa and the Middle East, with high fertility rates and younger populations, which are more prone to conflict
The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Time Series Analysis
Get PDFThis study investigates the complex relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in the Arab region, where sociocultural norms often constrain women’s economic empowerment. Utilizing panel data spanning 1991 to 2023 across 15 Arab countries, the analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to account for potential endogeneity and dynamic heterogeneity. The results reveal that higher fertility rates reduce labor market participation among women aged 15–64, while unexpectedly increasing participation among younger women aged 15–24. However, when labor market conditions are considered, fertility is found to contribute to higher unemployment rates in both age groups. These findings underscore the need for policy interventions that support women’s employment, including expanded access to reproductive health services, flexible work arrangements, childcare provision, and broader gender equity measures. The study’s contribution lies in its region-wide, longitudinal perspective, offering new insights beyond prior country-specific or survey-based analyses
Artificial Intelligence and Digital Financial Inclusion
Get PDFArtificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly growing with new use cases emerging every day. AI has many applications in the financial sector. It has applications for risk management, fraud detection, efficiency, cost savings and improved customer experience. However, its applications for digital financial inclusion and development finance are yet to be explored in the literature. This study explores how artificial intelligence can be used to increase digital financial inclusion. Specifically, the study explores the potential for AI to streamline the operations of agents of digital financial inclusion; determine the communal areas in need of digital financial inclusion; automate the digital formal account opening process; offer customized experience for both banked and unbanked adults; ensure security and safety of customers’ funds; determine the credit worthiness of unbanked adults who have recently become banked; give banked adults full control of their financial lives; deepen digital financial inclusion; and promote equity and diversity for digital financial inclusion. The study also identifies the challenges of AI for digital financial inclusion. It further presents some insights on the possible AI governance frameworks for digital financial inclusion. The insights offered in this study are useful to guide countries and policymakers that want to use AI to accelerate digital financial inclusion
EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE DISCLOSURE OF REASONS FOR AUDITOR SWITCHING: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN
Get PDFThis study investigates the relationship between the context of auditor switching and the reasons for the switch provided in the extraordinary reports, which constitute one of the most distinctive characteristics of the auditor switching institution in Japan. The results of the empirical analysis indicate that the firms that switched from Big N to non-Big N auditors as well as the firms that received going-concern opinions just before auditor switching tended to provide “expiration of auditors’ term of office” as the reason for the switch in the extraordinary reports. Additionally, this study empirically examines whether the reasons provided in the extraordinary reports affect investment behavior. Using cumulative abnormal returns, this study demonstrates that there are no significant market reactions to the reasons for auditor switching. Thus, it can be concluded that the disclosure system related to the reasons for auditor switching may not be useful for investors
The Conventional System of Zakah versus the Holy Quran: An Econometric Model of Payers and Receivers
Get PDFZakah is the obligatory socio-economic act of worship most often mentioned in the Holy Qur'an, along with Salah. The rules given by Almighty Allah, especially regarding the obligatory acts, have been changed from the beginning by the plot of Satan (Devil). This article examines whether Muslim countries have Zakah management according to the principles and regulations mentioned in the Holy Quran. Contemporary data from forty Muslim-majority countries were collected and analysed to achieve this objective. A thorough review revealed that the conventional system of Zakah has a Nisab (minimum amount) and a rate of 2.5%. These two basic elements are not mentioned anywhere in the Holy Quran. Moreover, it appears that all forms of management of Zakah have been developed purely on economic considerations; that is, the social aspect has been completely rejected. In addition, some countries collect this Zakah officially, which is spent in unauthorised ways contrary to the Holy Quran. Although the principle of harvest, excess and Khumus (one-fifth) of the Holy Quran identifies the Zakah receiving class, there is no such distribution system among those classes either by Zakah or otherwise. Therefore, this paper humbly requests a more in-depth study on Zakah based on the Holy Quran
Trade Facilitation as a Tool of Economic Diplomacy- Lessons from EU Engagement with SPECA Countries and Developing Economies
Get PDFThis paper analyses how the European Union (EU) has systematically used trade-facilitation assistance, rule-making, and market-access diplomacy to advance its economic and geopolitical interests vis-à-vis the United Nations Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia (SPECA) and a broader set of developing economies. Drawing on primary documents (EU-SPECA progress reports 2018-2024, GSP+ monitoring reports), 87 semi-structured interviews with customs officials, private-sector representatives, and EU Delegation staff, and a new panel dataset covering 38 developing countries (2000-2023), we show that trade-facilitation measures have delivered measurable reductions in trade costs, but that their diplomatic value is mediated by four factors: (i) institutional absorptive capacity; (ii) the credibility of EU conditionality; (iii) competing offers from China and the Gulf states; and (iv) domestic political-economy coalitions. The paper concludes with a typology of “facilitation diplomacy” and a set of policy recommendations for the EU’s 2025-2030 external action agenda