60853 research outputs found
Sort by
Regional Inflation Spillovers and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from Peru's Successful Inflation-Targeting Framework
Get PDFDespite being an emerging economy, Peru has achieved superior post-pandemic disinflation compared to major developed economies, making its regional inflation dynamics globally instructive for monetary policy design. This study investigates Lima's suitability as Peru's inflation-targeting anchor by analyzing regional spillovers across nine economic regions using monthly CPI data (2002-2024). Employing both Diebold-Yilmaz time-domain and Baruník-Křehlík frequency-domain frameworks, we quantify the direction, magnitude, and persistence of inflation transmission. Results reveal strong regional interdependence (73.60% total spillover index) with Lima as the dominant net transmitter (23.94 percentage points). However, frequency decomposition uncovers striking cyclical heterogeneity: Lima receives short-run shocks from food-producing regions but dominates long-run transmission (44.70% vs. 28.99% frequency spillover index). Rolling-window analysis during COVID-19 shows temporary spillover disruption (connectivity declining from 75% to 68%) followed by recovery during 2022's inflationary surge. Robustness checks across specifications, granular city-level data, and three-band frequency segmentation confirm Lima's structural centrality at lower frequencies. These findings validate the Central Reserve Bank's Lima-centered approach for long-run targeting while revealing asymmetric frequency-dependent spillovers. The presence of short-run regional shocks suggests integrating upstream agricultural signals could enhance near-term forecasting and policy responsiveness
Can country policy and institutional frameworks reduce global inflation?
Get PDFThe study investigates the effect of country policy and institutional frameworks (CPIFs) on global inflation while controlling for the rate of unemployment and economic growth rate from 2005 to 2023. The country policy and institutional frameworks examined are the economic management policies, social inclusion/equity policies, structural policies, and public sector management and institutions. The findings reveal that public sector management and institutions as well as social inclusion and social equity policy have a significant effect on global inflation. The results imply that the presence of strong public sector management and institutions lead to a significant decrease in the inflation rate while social inclusion and social equity policies lead to an increase in the inflation rate. The implication of the findings is that public sector management and institutions as well as social inclusion and social equity policies are crucial for the persistence of global inflation
Réexamen du lien entre formation et rendement agricole : cas des cacaoculteurs du grand sud au Cameroun
Get PDFThis article aims to assess the effect of farmer training on cocoa farm yields in grand south Cameroon. The data comes from surveys conducted in 2019 by the National Cocoa and Coffee Board in Cameroon (NCCB), covering 13,601 cocoa farmers. Using a bivariate Probit model, the results show that agricultural training increases the probability of high yields by 8.4% and raises the likelihood of attending further training. Similarly, owning a motorcycle increases the probability of high yields by 4.2%. On the other hand, education level, intensive fertilizer use, and higher cocoa quality reduce the likelihood of strong yields. Additionally, training boosts the probability of high yields more for women (6.9%) than for men (4.8%). Likewise, educated women have a higher probability of strong yields (5.1%) compared to educated men (3.1%). Finally, being single increases the likelihood of high yields for men by 4.1% but has no effect on women. Based on these findings, the study recommends improving agricultural training for cocoa farmers through producer organizations (OPAs) and facilitating farmers' mobility by establishing collective transport systems to more remote plantations
Perilous Pathways: The Dangerous Migration of Ethiopians to South Africa
Get PDFSince the 1990s, Ethiopian youths and adults—primarily from the country’s southern and central regions—have been migrating to South Africa via the "southern route." Over the past 25 years, this male-dominated migration flow has grown increasingly irregular, relying on human smugglers and multiple transit countries. The Ethiopian immigrant population in South Africa has expanded significantly, with shifts in the demographics of migrants, including age, ethnicity, place of origin, gender, and socioeconomic status. Rural youth have increasingly joined this migration stream, and more women are now migrating for marriage. Migration brokers play a pivotal role in facilitating irregular migration from Ethiopia to South Africa. Upon arrival, most Ethiopian immigrants engage in the informal economy and remain socially segregated, with language barriers hindering integration. The profile of migrants has diversified in recent years, now including teenagers, college graduates, and civil servants. Concurrently, the smuggling and settlement processes have evolved, particularly due to stricter border controls—exacerbated by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic—which have altered smuggling dynamics and exacerbated inequalities among Ethiopian migrants in South Africa. Social networks sustain this migration trend, fuelled by narratives of financial success shared by early migrants through remittances, material goods sent back home, and social media. Labour market demands shape migrant profiles, with varying skill levels (low-skilled, unskilled, high-skilled) and gendered labour roles influencing migration patterns. Religion, particularly evangelical Christianity, also plays a significant role, framing migration as a divine blessing, shaping risk perceptions, and providing spiritual support in navigating the challenges of settlement. Aspirations for economic advancement and self-improvement drive many migrants, often leading them into precarious journeys facilitated by smuggling networks operating from Hosanna (the capital of Hadiya Zone) and Nairobi. Corruption among law enforcement agencies further enables this transnational smuggling industry. However, rising xenophobia in South Africa and stricter enforcement in transit countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi have reduced migration along this route since 2015. Unauthorized Ethiopian migrants in South Africa face stigmatization. They are, often being perceived as criminals, informal economy operators, or threats to local employment opportunities. This perception exacerbates their marginalization and limits their integration into South African society
Integration, Contagion and Turmoils; Evidence from Emerging markets
Get PDFPurpose – Based on weekly data from 2012 to 2024, this paper aims to evaluate empirically the integration and contagion properties of some emerging stock markets from North Africa including Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, and to deepen the understanding of the linkage between them during stable and turmoil periods (Covid 19, Ukrainian war and Gazza war).
Design/methodology/approach – Besides traditional Granger causality (GC) test (Granger, 1969), the (Shi, Hurn, & Phillips, 2020)’ time-varying (TV) GC test, the (Song & Taamouti, 2020)’ quantiles GC test, and the (Breitung-Candelon, 2006)’ frequency domain (FD) GC tests are used for the contagion (diversification) check between market volatility (returns). Then, the returns DCC- GARCH specifications are used for the integration investigations. Then, based on the returns DCC dynamic regressions, the contagion analysis between considered markets that are related to the unexpected events is done.
Findings – As the results from the standard GC, all considered tests reveal that in mean, Tunisian returns R_T and Egyptian R_E are predictable by Moroccan R_M. Only Tunisian and Egyptian return can play then the role of diversifier. Results from these causality tests detect some contagion in variance between markets, which was denied from dynamic DDC regression regressions in returns. From dynamic DCC-GARCH model, our empirical results show a weak integration between returns.
Originality/value – Via the dynamic DCC ARCH and the DCC quantile regression, the time varying GC, the quantile GC, and the spectral GC tests, this paper provides a deeper understanding of North African marginal stock market behavior and linkage.
Entrepreneurship and business cycles: Global evidence
Get PDFThis study examines the interplay between business cycles and entrepreneurship using data from 172 countries spanning 1990 to 2022. We employ the State Space model, panel vector autoregressive models, and the Granger non-causality tests and unravel three key insights. First, entrepreneurship exerts hysteresis, albeit with weak persistence. Second, entrepreneurship exhibits a countercyclical relationship with business cycles measured by both output and unemployment cycles, suggesting that high unemployment during global recessions may push individuals to start new businesses. These countercyclical results remain robust to structural breaks across different sub-sample periods. Third, entrepreneurship acts as a lagging indicator of business cycles, meaning changes in output and unemployment precede changes in entrepreneurial activity. Further analysis indicates that these findings are primarily driven by upper-middle and high-income countries. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of these results and outlining promising directions for future research
A beta prime ARMA model for positive time series
Get PDFA class of generalized ARMA models with an identity link function and a conditional beta prime (BP-ARMA) distribution is proposed for modeling positive time series. Sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary BP-ARMA process having finite moments are first proposed. Then, the parameters are estimated using the geometric quasi-maximum likelihood method, the convergence and asymptotic normality of which are shown under reasonable assumptions. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a simulation study and an application to the S&P 500 volume
Developing a financial strategy for nonprofits
Get PDFNonprofits operate in a complex environment in which they sometimes have to achieve two conflicting goals. The natural tendency of a nonprofit's management is to maximize the organization's social goals, by using its resources fully. However, every nonprofit needs financial stability, and this goal requires to limit the expenses in order to create reserves. This article presents guidelines for planning toward financial stability, using real life examples from three nonprofits. The article presents the common measures of financial stability and shows how we can project their values for the relevant planning period. Using these projected measures of financial stability, the article presents a methodology to determine the necessary budgetary planning both for the next budget and for the long-run. We also demonstrate how the financial stability measures can be used to manage the risk that emanates from the significant uncertainty regarding income in the nonprofits' sector
Strategic crypto reserves: A new era for crypto currency regulation and central bank digital currencies?
Get PDFThe executive order signed by President Donald J Trump on the 6th March 2025, which establishes a U.S crypto currency reserve, “creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that will treat bitcoin as a reserve asset.”
Whilst there are enthusiasts in favor of the recent move, there are also concerns about how it will be implemented – as well as implications for taxpayers in the event of a collapse in prices. Concerns are consolidated further, primarily because there are several Bills still being considered in Congress – compounded with recent developments and turbulence in the crypto assets sector. Further concerns, primarily relate to governmental and political interference with the central bank’s role in monetary policy setting and, regulatory uncertainties.
This paper considers, as well as highlights, why the central bank’s independence is pivotal to its functions. Whilst close collaboration with the executive, and the legislature, are also essential to its functioning, the section also highlights the immense contributions that can be derived from crypto currencies and stable coins – when adequately regulated. The third section then considers main issues to be addressed. This will be followed by a conclusive section
New industrial policy design and competition: a computational approach
Get PDFFollowing a period during which the two fields evolved separately, a consensus has emerged that competition and industrial policy are not inherently incompatible. This reflects broader intellectual shifts. Industrial policy is now viewed more favorably, not only for traditional development goals but also to strengthen technological capabilities for national security and secure global economic dominance. "Techno-nationalist'' approaches to industrial policy may conflict with global technology diffusion efforts addressing issues like climate change ("techno-globalism''). Despite recent developments in the intersection of competition and industrial policy, there is a lack of evidence on how techno-nationalist and techno-globalist approaches interact with competition policy goals. This article fills this gap by empirically assessing the competitive effects of policy measures. We use a text-as-data approach, combining AI-driven document analysis with structured classification criteria. The data show that techno-globalist industrial policies are generally more pro-competitive than techno-nationalist ones, due to their broader scope and ability to lower entry costs. Moreover, we find that certain policy instruments are primarily associated with anti-competitive criteria, while others tend to exhibit predominantly pro-competitive features. Our results provide a fine-grained characterization of new industrial policy design in light of competition policy goals