Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

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    Energy Prices and Competitiveness in the Manufacturing Sector

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    We investigate the relationship between energy prices and manufacturing competitiveness at the industry level. Drawing on panel data spanning the mid-1990s to the 2010s from an extensive multi-sector dataset, we shed light on the nonlinear dynamics between energy prices and the sector-level performance of manufacturing industries. Our findings link to ongoing work on the effect of energy prices on firm-level performance by highlighting considerable sector-specific heterogeneity, indicating the complex relationship between economic performance and energy costs

    Analyzing Risk Exposure Determinants in European Banking: A Regulatory Perspective

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    The paper deals only with the identification of the determinants of total risk exposure amount within the European banking system, while the importance of TREA within Basel III regulatory regimes is focused. The research provides the integration of an econometric investigation with high-end machine learning techniques for the identification of the influential financial variables of TREA. The most relevant financial determinants of TREA were identified as LCR, CRWEA, LA, and OREA. These also reflect complex interdependencies-for instance, the negative value of TREA and LCR would suggest that there were trade-offs made between risk-taking and liquidity management. Thus, the positive relationship with CRWEA, and even more so with derivatives over assets, underlines intrinsic risks from credit exposures and related to financial instruments' complexity. The report further iterates that there should be mechanisms for appropriate risk-weighting, adequate liquidity buffers, and proper operational controls so that the financial system can become significantly more stable and resilient. This work will put forward actionable recommendations to policy makers, regulators, and financial institutions on mitigating systemic vulnerabilities and further optimizing their strategies for compliance in view of an increasingly volatile financial landscape, leveraging from traditional econometric modeling insights with machine learning

    Evaluating Environmental Sustainability in Manufacturing: A Multi-Criteria Analysis of Chittagong's Industrial Sector

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    Bangladesh faces significant environmental challenges stemming from improper industrialization and unsustainable commercial practices. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of various attributes and sub-attributes associated with manufacturing companies in Chittagong in addressing environmental sustainability. A multi-criteria decision-making approach, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), was employed to assess the natural environment through six primary attributes and 27 sub-attributes identified via a participatory process. The study determined the relative weights of these attributes and sub-attributes using a pair-wise comparison matrix. The findings revealed that Image/Relationship was the most influential attribute (35.92%), followed by Regulatory (27.6%) and Internal Voluntary (17.9%). Manufacturing organizations were found to prioritize image building, often investing significantly in environmental assessments to enhance their corporate reputation. Under the Regulatory attribute, organizations demonstrated considerable attention to monitoring, inspection, testing, and protective equipment. However, in the Internal Voluntary category, while employee health and satisfaction were highly valued, environmental audits received minimal focus. This study underscores the need for a unified framework to systematically assess and address the environmental impacts of manufacturing organizations. By establishing such a framework, organizations can better align their operations with sustainable practices. This research represents an ongoing effort to develop a standardized approach to natural environment assessment in industrial contexts

    The Big Four Premium: Are Audit Fees a Matter of Size, Reputation, or Complexity?

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    With an emphasis on the influence of Big Four auditors in the US between 2000 and 2024, this paper explores the factors that influence audit fees and associated non-audit fees. We examine trends in audit, tax-related, and miscellaneous fees using a dataset that includes 1,187 auditors and 13,822 distinct entities across 1,315 sectors. In order to determine if the Big Four auditors—Deloitte, PwC, EY, and KPMG—command a higher cost for their services, we examine how firm-specific factors like revenue, assets, book value, and earnings affect fee structures. This study looks at both linear and non-linear associations using advanced econometric methods, such as multiple regression analysis and non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. It additionally incorporates interaction variables to account for differences between Big Four and non-Big Four auditors. The findings reveal that companies audited by Big Four auditors pay significantly more, which is symptomatic of their perceived market dominance and audit quality. While non-audit fees demonstrate clear trends impacted by auditor type, larger businesses with higher revenues and assets are also linked to higher rates

    Several seasonal adjustment strategies in problematic contexts

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    The past few years have been marked by the occurrence of many unexpected events that have had many social and economic repercussions, with the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions in energy commodity markets standing out above the others. This period of great uncertainty has also had a considerable effect on the production of official economic statistics, undermining the goodness and the predictive capacity of short-term stochastic models. In this condition of extreme unpredictability, there is a need for a strategy of monitoring and reviewing the seasonal adjustment models and anomalous observations, especially over the period 2020-2023. In this work several intervention strategies were defined and tested, focusing over series that manifested a distinct break in their dynamic. Temporary level shifts, included with their lagged versions, have proven to be a particularly useful tool. The outcomes reveal that the policies we considered are effective, and the TRAMO-SEATS procedure manages to be helpful in both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. The whole data analysis has been conducted with JDemetra+ that is a complete and flexible tool in performing several statistical estimates and tests

    Several seasonal adjustment strategies in problematic contexts

    Get PDF
    The past few years have been marked by the occurrence of many unexpected events that have had many social and economic repercussions, with the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions in energy commodity markets standing out above the others. This period of great uncertainty has also had a considerable effect on the production of official economic statistics, undermining the goodness and the predictive capacity of short-term stochastic models. In this condition of extreme unpredictability, there is a need for a strategy of monitoring and reviewing the seasonal adjustment models and anomalous observations, especially over the period 2020-2023. In this work several intervention strategies were defined and tested, focusing over series that manifested a distinct break in their dynamic. Temporary level shifts, included with their lagged versions, have proven to be a particularly useful tool. The outcomes reveal that the policies we considered are effective, and the TRAMO-SEATS procedure manages to be helpful in both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. The whole data analysis has been conducted with JDemetra+ that is a complete and flexible tool in performing several statistical estimates and tests

    Profiting from Perception: The Power of Unproven Allegations in Short Selling

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    Short selling is a financial strategy that enables traders to profit from declining stock prices. This study examines the role of unproven allegations in influencing stock market movements, with a focus on their impact on public perception and short-selling outcomes. Using an event study methodology, the research analyzes key cases, including the allegations against the Adani Group, to assess how market reactions evolve in response to repeated accusations. The study explores the intersection of financial speculation, corporate reputation, and regulatory oversight, contributing to the broader discourse on market efficiency and the ethical implications of short-selling strategies

    Pauvreté, civisme et éducation à Madagascar

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    Madagascar is ranked as the 5th poorest country in the world, according to the World Bank. Researchers, both Malagasy and foreign are surprised that in country rich in naturel resources, where neither civil war or world war has occurred, the most vulnerable people on Earth reside. Hypotheses have been put forward suggesting that education and formation quality is the major factor. While all of these hypotheses contain some truth, we may wonder: « Where do this inequality come from? » This article aims to delve deeper to clarify these points. In fact, they closely related to fundamental education. Education needs to be civic and aligned with the curriculum, meaning it should correspond to the needs of business and the country

    Leading with Generosity and Responsibility through Reward Allocation Decisions in Teams

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    Leadership generosity and responsibility are crucial elements in organizational management, particularly when leaders allocate rewards among team members. Through theoretical modeling and experimental validation, we examine leaders' allocation decisions before the project begins and after its outcomes are realized, and how these behavioral tendencies depend on personal traits. Using a preregistered randomized controlled experiment with 520 participants, we examine leaders' tendency to take a smaller share for themselves---enhancing effort through generous commitment before the project starts and signaling responsibility after poor performance---as well as the role of personal traits in shaping behavioral styles. Our theoretical framework predicts that more altruistic leaders will demonstrate stronger generous commitment while less altruistic leaders will demonstrate greater responsibility following negative outcomes. The empirical findings largely support these predictions. Female leaders show more generosity, while both genders demonstrate responsibility by reducing self-allocation following negative outcomes, albeit through different psychological mechanisms. Personality traits, especially altruism, as well as other psychological factors, moderate these behaviors, with traits traditionally associated with ``strong'' leadership often negatively related to responsibility. These findings provide insights into leadership decision-making, with implications for organizational design and leadership development

    The Relativistic-Chaotic Market Hypothesis: On the Physical Impossibility of Perfect Informational Efficiency

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    This paper introduces the Relativistic-Chaotic Market Hypothesis (RCMH), a theoretical framework extending traditional financial theory to account for the fundamental constraints imposed by both the finite speed of light and the emergence of chaos in relativistic market systems. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) assumes instantaneous information transmission, physical reality dictates that information cannot propagate faster than light speed, creating unavoidable information asymmetries across spatially distributed markets. Furthermore, the cascading interactions of these light-cone-bounded information flows generate inherently chaotic dynamics that fundamentally limit predictability and efficiency. We develop a formal model quantifying how the combination of relativistic constraints and emergent chaos bounds the theoretical maximum efficiency achievable in any market system, proving that perfect informational efficiency is not merely practically challenging but physically impossible. Using principles from special relativity and chaos theory, we establish mathematical relationships between spatial market distribution, information value decay rates, and the inevitability of chaotic market behavior. Through a series of thought experiments involving hypothetical interplanetary market scenarios, we demonstrate how relativistic-chaotic effects would create persistent arbitrage opportunities and unpredictability that cannot be eliminated through technological advancement or regulatory intervention. Our framework reconciles certain empirical market anomalies with theory by demonstrating that efficiency gaps and apparently random market fluctuations are not necessarily market failures but may reflect fundamental consequences of physical law. The RCMH has significant implications for market design, regulatory approaches, and the future of interplanetary finance as human economic activity expands throughout the solar system. We propose a modified definition of market efficiency that accounts for both relativistic constraints and chaotic emergence while preserving the core insights of the EMH, bridging the divide between theoretical finance and physical reality

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