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Macro Determinants of Global Financial Inclusion: Evidence from World Data
Get PDFThe study investigates the macro determinants of global financial inclusion using world data from 1999 to 2023 period. The data were analysed using the fully modified ordinary least squares regression estimator, the two-stage least squares regression estimator and the robust least squares regression estimator. The determinants examined are total domestic investment, macroeconomic management frameworks, international trade openness, total population size, consumer spending, and economic growth rate. The findings reveal that population size and trade openness have a positive effect on global financial inclusion through a higher financial inclusion index and commercial bank branch expansion. Total domestic investment and sound macroeconomic management have a negative effect on global financial inclusion through a decrease in the financial inclusion index and a reduction in the number of bank branches and the negative effect is more pronounced in the post-financial crisis years. However, total population size remain a positive determinant of global financial inclusion in the post-financial crisis years. Trade openness and consumer spending increase global financial inclusion during periods of economic prosperity while total domestic investment and sound macroeconomic management decrease global financial inclusion during periods of economic prosperity. In terms of forward-looking orientation, the study finds that a large population and weak macroeconomic management in the present period leads to financial inclusion gains in the future. It is recommended that policy adjustments in today’s population size and macroeconomic management frameworks can help to achieve future financial inclusion targets. The findings contribute to the financial inclusion literature by using world data to offer new insights into the factors that can accelerate global financial inclusion
Risk Assesment of Companies and Banks Exposed to the German Automotive Industry in a Small Open Economy
Get PDFRecent concerns about the German automotive slowdown and related US tariffs pose risks for small open economies. We focus on Slovenian companies integrated into these supply chains. Using comprehensive data-intensive analysis, we define “companies at risk” as companies operating in the automotive sector with at least 10% of revenues from German trade receivables. They account for approximately 2% of total bank exposures, 5.3% of value added, and 5% of operating revenues. At the municipal level, several clusters with higher concentrations of such firms are identified. To address data limitations and the arbitrariness of our classification, we conduct robustness checks. Using input–output tables, we also assess potential spillover effects across supply chains. Our granular company-level approach provides valuable insights for potential policy responses targeting the real economy, banking system, and/or local municipalities
Financing Climate Change by Indian States: Progress and Prospects
Get PDFClimate change presents a growing threat to India's macro-financial outlook, with significant implications at the subnational level. This study compiles the data on climate-related expenditure by 31 Indian States and Union Territories from 2004-05 to 2022-23. The State governments, on an average, spend 1.1 per cent of their GSDP and 7.3 per cent of total expenditure on climate-related activities. A dynamic panel regression identifies fiscal capacity, intergovernmental transfers, and expenditure persistence as key determinants of climate spending of States, whereas climate vulnerability plays a limited role. The paper also reviews the current sources of climate financing of the States and explores the opportunities to scale up financing through various alternative channels. It underscores the need for strengthening institutional capacity and use of strategic fiscal tools to enhance climate responsiveness of States
Production Function in an Economy with Deployed Self-Learning Technologies
Get PDFThe purpose of this paper is to introduce a new production function that takes into account self-learning AI, which can improve itself and therefore productivity without any additional human capital or labor, even though it still requires physical capital. The difference between my production function and any other existing production function is that my production function separates technologies into self-learning and non-self-learning technologies. The value of exponent for the self-learning technologies depends on the value of its base and this is the unique recursive feature of my production function. Unlike in the MRW production function, in my production function, technology and labor force are separated and this is allowed because I make the technology endogenous. My production function leads to only two possibilities, which are an economy that is in balanced growth path (BGP), and an economy that is in accelerating growth path. The determining factor that decides whether an economy is in BGP or not is the exponent for the self-learning technologies in my production function. If the sum of all exponents is less or equal to 1, then the economy is in BGP, which is consistent with MRW (1992). If the sum of all exponents is greater than 1, then the economy is in accelerating growth path, which is consistent with Romer (1986). There is no steady state in my production function. I also rule out the possibility of singularity. My production function has many policy implications, and the policy recommendations differ among AI-producing countries, rich non-AI-producing countries and poor non-AI-producing countries
Структурный анализ критического импорта и его влияние на экономическое развитие региона
Get PDFУсиливающиеся процессы деглобализации, включающие в себя, в том числе, наращивание механизмов реализации внешнего давления как инструмент обеспечения глобальной конкурентоспособности отдельных стран, в значительной степени возвышают актуальность вопроса изучения адаптивных направлений реализации политики импортозамещения. К важнейшим из них необходимо отнести комплексный анализ импортозависимости с позиции определения наиболее критических групп товарных номенклатур, поставляемых в регионы. Данный подход позволит не только определить степень уязвимости региональных экономических систем к ограничениям поставок импорта критически значимой продукции, но и разработать инструментарий, позволяющий оценить влияние локализации импорта на устойчивость экономического развития регионов.
Решению этой задачи и посвящена настоящая статья, целью которой является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих взаимосвязь критического импорта и экономического роста регионов.
Методическую основу исследования определяет инструментарий идентификации критического импорта в рамках трехступенчатой его аутентификации: объемы импорта, доля его участия в создании добавленной стоимости конечного продукта региона, страновая принадлежность. Полученные объемно-стоимостные параметры формируют основу для проведения пространственного анализа панельных данных, определяющего влияние критического импорта на перспективы экономического развития.
Объектом исследования выступают субъекты Север-Западного федерального округа РФ.
Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов СЗФО, а также степень их влияния на промышленный рост субъектов Север-Западного федерального округа.
The increasing processes of deglobalization, which include, among other things, increasing the mechanisms for implementing external pressure as a tool for ensuring the global competitiveness of individual countries, significantly raise the urgency of studying adaptive directions for the implementation of import substitution policy.This article is devoted to solving this problem, the purpose of which is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its three-stage authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District
A Theoretical Framework for Analyzing Inequalities in Health Care
Get PDFGender inequalities affect all aspects of society, including political, economic, and social domains—and health systems are no exception. This paper proposes a concise theoretical framework to analyze the multiple gendered dimensions within health systems, based on the World Health Organization’s classification of core health system functions. By examining financing, governance, resource generation, and service provision, the framework highlights how gender disparities are embedded in institutional structures and practices. Specific evidence from recent studies is included to illustrate these dynamics. Ultimately, the proposed framework aims to serve for the research project on the historical development of public health systems
Climate Events and Market Efficiency: An Event Study Analysis
Get PDFWe examine market reactions to climate events using event study methodology on a final sample of
250 high-severity events (2000–2025) across US, EU, and Asian markets, which were filtered from
a raw dataset of over 1.5 million events. Broad US indices (SPY, QQQ) show no significant event-
day AR, while the US energy sector (XLE) exhibits a negative reaction (−6 bps, p < 0.001). EU
proxies (EZU, VGK) show small positive reactions (+3 to +6 bps), and Asian markets display
heterogeneous responses. While statistically significant, transaction costs exceed gross effects,
supporting market efficiency while revealing sector-specific sensitivities to climate information.
Results challenge uniform climate risk pricing and suggest regional differences and sector
composition drive responses. All inferential results use the analyzed sample of 250 non-overlapping
events; diagnostic figures may summarize a larger candidate set used for alignment
Primary Conditions for Institutional Trust in Ukraine during the Conflict
Get PDFUsing Ukraine as an example, this study explores how performance-based and ideational factors interact in shaping institutional trust under wartime conditions. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is employed to analyse their joint presence in configurations associated with high and low levels of trust in state institutions. The findings suggest that trust is primarily shaped by performance indicators—economic satisfaction, perceived corruption, and personal safety—while ideational factors such as national identity, war-related ideologies, and democratic values play a secondary role. However, misalignment with dominant ideational narratives tend to exacerbate distrust during conflict, especially when institutional performance is perceived as weak. These results are used to argue that a divergence may appear between regime and institutional legitimacy in conflict-affected regions
Understanding the Relationship between American Agricultural Labor and Machinery
Get PDFThis paper examines the substitutability between labor and machinery in U.S. agriculture using a translog cost function and county-level data from the 2002 and 2022 Censuses of Agriculture. We estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities, along with Allen-Uzawa and Morishima elasticities of substitution, to evaluate the evolving relationship between these inputs.
Our results indicate that labor and machinery have been strong substitutes in the past two decades, reflecting the sector’s capacity to mechanize tasks traditionally performed by human labor. However, elasticity estimates reveal a notable decline in
substitutability in the past twenty years, which might be explained by the onset of technological saturation. As basic agricultural tasks become increasingly automated, the remaining labor-intensive activities, such as fruit harvesting and livestock care, pose greater challenges to mechanization.
We also observe a declining own-price elasticity of labor, indicating reduced responsiveness of labor demand to wage changes. A shift toward skilled labor and broader structural changes in the agricultural economy may drive this trend. Regional analysis highlights heterogeneity in substitution patterns, with some areas maintaining strong substitutability while others exhibit mixed or complementary relationships. These results carry important policy implications. High substitutability supports continued investment in mechanization and informs the design of subsidies and R&D
funding. This paper also contributes to a deeper understanding of input dynamics in agricultural production and offers evidence-based guidance for innovation and labor policy in the sector
Impact of Liquidity Risk on Financial Stability
No full textThis study examines the effect of liquidity risk on the financial stability of Islamic commercial banks in Tunisia over the period 2012–2021. Using a purposive sample of 10 Islamic banks and a balanced panel that yields 78 bank-year observations, we estimate a set of OLS regressions to assess direct and indirect relationships among liquidity risk (measured by the Financing to Deposit Ratio, FDR), credit risk (Non-Performing Financing, NPF), operational efficiency (BOPO) and bank stability (Z-score). Diagnostic tests (normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation) support the adequacy of the models. Empirical results show that higher liquidity risk (FDR) is associated with lower bank stability, and that elevated NPF significantly reduces stability. Operational efficiency (lower BOPO) is positively associated with bank stability. The analysis also reveals that FDR negatively affects NPF, while NPF strongly reduces operational efficiency. These findings underscore the need for balanced liquidity management that preserves lending activity without compromising solvency and operational performance. Policy implications for regulators and bank managers in emerging Islamic banking systems are discussed