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Анализ конкуренции и доминирования в секторе страхования в Сербии в 2010–2024 гг.
No full textRussian. В статье исследуется конкуренция и доминирование на страховом рынке Сербии (за исключением Косово и Метохии). Был применен метод матрицы SV (Strength vs Variety), причем необходимые показатели рассчитаны на основе общей суммы страховых премий, собранных страховыми компаниями, согласно данным Национального банка Сербии за период 2010–2024 годов. Результаты показали относительно высокую общую степень концентрации (CRSV), а также относительно низкую дифференциацию внутри доминирующей группы (HTSV). Согласно результатам, сектор позиционировался в квадрантах RO (в годах 2010, 2011, 2015 и 2016) и B4 в остальных годах, с исключением 2012, когда обрелся в квадранте G. Кроме того, в последние несколько лет (начиная с 2020 г.) наблюдается явная тенденция снижения обоих ключевых показателей, определяющих матрицу SV: CRSV и HTSV, что свидетельствует о приближении к RO-квадранту рынка SV, т.е. усилении роли конкуренции как внутри доминирующей группы, так и по отношению к другим участникам рынка.
English. The article investigates competition and dominance in the insurance market in Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohia). The SV (Strength vs Variety) matrix method was applied, and the required indicators were calculated based on the total insurance premiums collected by insurance companies, according to data from the National Bank of Serbia for the period 2010–2024. The results showed a relatively high overall degree of concentration (CRSV), as well as relatively low differentiation within the dominant group (HTSV). According to the results, the sector was positioned in the RO quadrant (in the years 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2016) and B4 in the remaining years, with the exception of 2012, when it fell into the G quadrant. In addition, in last few years (since 2020) it is observed a clear tendency to decrease in both key indicators that define the SV matrix: CRSV and HTSV, which shows an approach to the RO quadrant of the SV market, i.e. a strengthening of the role of competition both within the dominant group and in relation to other market participants
Bulgarian Economists on the Development of an Independent Basis for Price Formation in COMECON Trade (1958–1971)
No full textBetween 1958 and 1971 (until the adoption of the Comecon's Comprehensive Programme), active work was carried out on models for complete separation from world (capitalist) market prices. Bulgarian economists were particularly active in this regard, and their position was also expressed politically, which gives us reason to examine their proposals in particular. To this end, the present text sequentially examines several debated methodological issues related to pricing (within the framework of the Marxian labour theory of value, particularly in the work of Jacques Aroyo), selected ideas of Bulgarian economists on practical pricing (again Jacques Aroyo and Evgeni Mateev), the Tsvetkov–Golubarev approach, as well as Stefan Stoilov’s analyses of the potential effects of a transition to an independent pricing basis
Salario Mínimo y Tiempo de Cuidado de los Hijos en EEUU, 2019-2023
No full textLa literatura económica reciente sugiere que los incrementos en el salario mínimo pueden dar lugar a que los padres dediquen más tiempo al cuidado de los hijos al aliviar las restricciones financieras, como el efecto renta. Sin embargo, la mayor parte de la evidencia de investigaciones pasadas no analiza las disrupciones de la pandemia de COVID-19.
Esta investigación examina el impacto de los aumentos del salario mínimo a nivel estatal en el tiempo de cuidado infantil de los padres en los Estados Unidos durante el periodo mencionado de 2019 a 2023. Mediante el uso de microdatos de la American Time Use Survey (ATUS), analizamos una muestra de 4.043 padres en edad laboral y encontramos que, a diferencia de los hallazgos del periodo 2003-2019, no existe un efecto estadísticamente significativo en el tiempo de cuidado infantil en las especificaciones agregadas o de subgrupos, incluyendo madres, padres y padres con bajo nivel educativo, entre otros. Este resultado nulo diverge de la literatura anterior a 2019. Atribuimos esta falta de significatividad a las rigideces estructurales únicas del mercado laboral post-pandemia (2019-2023) y a la erosión de los salarios reales debido a la alta inflación, lo que probablemente neutralizó los incentivos de comportamiento típicamente asociados con los suelos salariale
Illuminating Economic Activity: Evidence from Night Lights Data in South Africa
No full textThis paper explores the use of night lights to track economic activity in South Africa at a level of spatial granularity and periodic frequency not obtainable by traditional indicators. It shows mismatches between urban population density, economic activity and infrastructure. We show that satellite data suggest very low growth in night light intensity across South Africa over the last decade and a decoupling from economic and population growth. We show that satellite data sheds light on the implications of the collapse of state service delivery and South Africa's decline in GDP per capita over the last decade. The most likely explanation of the slow growth in night light intensity in South Africa is municipal infrastructural degradation, observed in the breakdown of a large proportion of streetlights. Other possibilities include a shift to solar and off‐grid electricity supply, the decline in industrial and manufacturing production in South Africa, or improvements in energy efficiency. However, the shift to more efficient lighting technologies does not explain why night lights has grown so much more in fast growing developing countries. These results reveal a lack of densification in urban areas that contribute to higher transportation costs and reservation wages, discriminating against job creation and efficient service provision. Our results raise questions about the depth of South Africa's structural slowdown, the ability of traditional indicators to fully capture shifts in spatial economic vibrancy, and the impacts of urban planning policies on economic efficiency and development
Where geopolitical risk binds: Stockpiling and AI as complementary strategies for mitigating supply chain risk in critical minerals
No full textWe develop novel, stage-specific, geopolitical risk indicators to examine how geopolitical risk is distributed across the supply-chain for lithium and copper, two minerals which are vital for low-carbon technologies. We find that refining is the geopolitical bottleneck for both minerals, reflecting that refining capacity is highly concentrated in China. We examine refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and AI-driven productivity gains as complementary policy instruments for mitigating exposure to geopolitical risk at the refining stage. We show that reducing China’s refining share substantially lowers refining-stage geopolitical risk, with larger gains for lithium than for copper. We find that stockpiling plays a critical role in buffering near-term geopolitical shocks, but significantly increases the projected shortfall in copper and lithium which is needed to realize the clean energy transition under alternative Net Zero pathways. We demonstrate that AI-driven productivity gains will be needed to narrow the projected supply gaps for both minerals. Our results suggest that ensuring effective security of critical minerals requires a coordinated policy mix, combining refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and productivity-enhancing technological change
Análisis de los efectos del teletrabajo sobre el bienestar: Evidencia para Polonia
No full textThis paper analyses the effects of teleworking on the well-being of the Polish population in 2021. The study does not focus only on well-being, but also attempts to estimate the effect on depression and work-life balance among the population under study. For this purpose, data from the European Working Conditions Surveys (EWCS) for 2021 were used, considering demographic variables in the regression models. The findings of this study show that teleworking had a negative effect on the general well-being of the population and significantly increased symptoms of depression. On the other hand, no statistical significance was found in the effects of teleworking on a good work-life balance, with the most relevant explanatory variables being the presence of children and the workload, measured in hours worked. However, it is important to note that the explanatory power of these models is limited, so the estimates made do not capture the most relevant explanatory factors. Once this clarification has been made, the results obtained in this study suggest that teleworking has had negative consequences on mental health in Poland in 2021, especially for women
Climate-Smart Agriculture in West Africa: A Quantitative Assessment of Crop-Specific Resilience and Environmental Thresholds in Sierra Leone (2000–2024)
No full text2. Abstract
Background: Sub-Saharan African agriculture is increasingly threatened by the acceleration of climate-driven volatility. In Sierra Leone, where over 60% of the population relies on rain-fed subsistence farming, the lack of crop-specific climate risk data poses a critical barrier to food security planning. While national yields have grown due to post-conflict stabilization, the underlying biological thresholds of primary staples remain poorly understood, leaving the agricultural sector vulnerable to "tipping points" in thermal and hydrological stress.
Objective: This research investigates the multi-decadal impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in Sierra Leone. By integrating satellite-derived hydrological data with national production statistics, the study aims to identify crop-specific sensitivities to environmental stressors and establish biological temperature thresholds for staple crops.
Methodology: The study utilizes a fused dataset combining FAOSTAT yield records, NASA soil moisture metrics, and localized atmospheric data from the Climate Initiative portal. A robust data science pipeline was employed, involving Z-score standardization, log-transformations for precipitation skewness, and the engineering of quadratic temperature terms. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models with interaction terms were utilized to evaluate the differential resilience of major staples, including Rice, Sorghum, Maize, and Cassava.
Results: Findings reveal that while technological and infrastructural progress (Year) remains the primary driver of yield growth (), agricultural output is increasingly constrained by non-linear temperature thresholds (). Notably, the analysis identifies Sorghum as a highly resilient staple, demonstrating a unique ability to maintain yield stability during significant rainfall volatility (), whereas Rice exhibits higher vulnerability to thermal anomalies. Furthermore, results suggest that excessive precipitation and drainage constraints currently present a higher statistical risk to productivity than drought.
Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence for the prioritization of drought-tolerant and flood-resilient cultivars in national food security policies. These findings offer actionable insights for climate adaptation strategies in West Africa, emphasizing the need for crop diversification and improved hydrological infrastructure to buffer against accelerating environmental volatility
Use-Specific Storage Premia and Market Stabilization for Critical Minerals in the Presence of Geopolitical Risk
No full textThis paper examines how geopolitical risk affects metal prices and stockpiling when demand is unevenly distributed across end uses. We develop a Theory of Use-Specific Storage Premia, which posits that demand concentration and limited redeployability raise effective storage costs and weaken the stabilizing role of inventories/stockpiling. Using deterioration in United States–China political relations as a shock to forward-looking demand expectations, we estimate price and inventory responses for metals with well-established markets. Broad-use metals exhibit significant price declines and precautionary stockpiling following geopolitical deterioration, while use-specific metals display muted responses. Cross-sectional evidence links these patterns directly to use-specificity. The results imply that traditional stockpiling is structurally less effective for battery-linked critical minerals subject to geopolitical risk
The determinants of access to credit for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from Uzbekistan
No full textThis study examines the determinants of access to bank financing for enterprises in Uzbekistan, addressing both the decision to apply for credit and the probability of approval conditional on applying. Using World Bank Enterprise Survey data (n=1,008 enterprises), we employ a twostage analytical framework: binary logit regression models examine factors associated with having an existing loan, and Heckman probit selection models jointly estimate the loan application decision and approval probability, accounting for potential selection bias. The study reveals severe credit rationing in Uzbekistan, with only 13.3% of enterprises holding bank loans
and 10.1% applying for new credit. The most striking finding is the dominant effect of existing banking relationships: enterprises with current loans achieve 87.0% approval rates compared to 41.7% for first-time applicants. The Heckman outcome equation confirms this relationship banking effect, representing approximately 30-35 percentage point higher approval probability. Medium-sized enterprises enjoy substantial advantages in both application propensity and approval probability. Export activity and checking account ownership significantly enhance credit access. Contrary to international evidence, female-managed enterprises show positive
approval coefficients, though statistical significance is marginal. The highly significant selection parameter confirms substantial selection bias, validating the Heckman approach
Income Distribution, Consumption Dynamics, and Financial Fragility: A Kaleckian Perspective
No full textThis paper develops and empirically evaluates a Kaleckian model of distributive conflict in which mark-up pricing generates a divergence between wages and prices, eroding workers’ real purchasing power and inducing debt-financed consumption. In contrast to neoclassical frameworks, prices are administratively set by firms under imperfect competition, while workers adjust to distributive losses through borrowing and the accumulation of bank deposits. The model for- malizes workers’ consumption behavior as a real, dynamic process, highlighting a martingale-like condition in which households smooth real consumption over time despite inflationary pressures arising from rising mark-ups. Using household-level panel data, the paper tests this martingale property by estimating a fixed-effects regression of real consumption on its lagged value and lagged financial resources. The results provide evidence that real consumption exhibits strong persistence, consistent with consumption smoothing, while debt plays a compensatory role in sustaining demand under declining wage shares, the analysis also shows that this mechanism is inherently unstable, as rising indebtedness eventu- ally leads to deleveraging, contraction in effective demand, and downward pressure on prices. The findings contribute to the Post-Keynesian literature by linking distributive conflict, household debt, offering new empirical insights into the dynamics of consumption and macroeconomic instability