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Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa
No full textNon-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth
Le seuil de la dette publique en République Démocratique du Congo : contraintes conjoncturelles et impératif de soutenabilité pour le financement du développement
No full textThe Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces a structural paradox: a massive need for financing to support its economic and social development, in a context of limited domestic resource mobilization capacity. Public borrowing therefore appears to be an unavoidable lever to bridge the financing gap. However, the accumulation of debt is not neutral with respect to the effectiveness of economic policies, particularly countercyclical policies.
This article analyzes the existence of critical public debt thresholds in the DRC beyond which borrowing no longer supports growth and instead weakens the effectiveness of macroeconomic instruments. Using a threshold effects approach applied to Congolese macroeconomic data, the study identifies two major thresholds (32% and 110% of GDP) and draws strong implications for the development financing strategy and debt sustainability
Teletrabajo y bienestar tras la pandemia: evidencia para la República Checa
No full textThe rapid expansion of teleworking in the Czech Republic following the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the debate regarding its impact on employee wellbeing. This study aims to analyze the relationship between teleworking and various dimensions of personal health, specifically focusing on general wellbeing, mental health (depression), and work-life balance. Using microdata from the 2021 European Working Conditions Telephone Survey (EWCTS), the research employs linear and non-linear (logit) econometric models to test whether telework acts as a significant determinant of these dimensions.
The empirical results show that teleworking does not have a direct or robust effect on general wellbeing or the probability of depression once sociodemographic and labour characteristics are controlled. Furthermore, while partial telework initially appears to improve work-life balance in basic models, this effect loses statistical significance when introducing additional controls such as working hours and the nature of the job. The findings suggest that the potential benefits of remote work are highly dependent on job quality, workload, and organizational context rather than the work modality itself
Impacto de la modalidad laboral sobre la depresión y el bienestar en Portugal
No full textThis study analyzes the impact of teleworking on subjective well-being, mental health, and work-life balance in Portugal. Using Linear Probability and Logit models, the research demonstrates that full-time teleworking significantly improves work-life reconciliation.
However, the results reveal a gender gap: while the benefits are robust for men, they are statistically insignificant for women. Furthermore, the study identifies a correlation between depression among Portuguese workers and their total workload (number of hours worked).
The study concludes that teleworking is not a neutral tool and requires specific policies and shared responsibility to ensure an equitable impact
Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun
No full textThis paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological progress on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment, traditionally described by Okun’s law. Using panel data for 11 developed countries over the period 2000–2024, the analysis relies on fixed-effects models and dynamic specifications estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Technological intensity is proxied by an information and communication technology (ICT) index, and an interaction term is introduced to assess its moderating role in the growth–employment relationship. The results confirm the short-run validity of Okun’s law, as economic growth exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on changes in unemployment. However, technological intensity has a positive direct effect on unemployment and weakens the ability of growth to reduce unemployment, suggesting adjustment costs related to automation. Overall, the findings point to a structural transformation of the growth–employment nexus and highlight the need for active policies in skills development and labor market adjustment to ensure more inclusive growth
Teletrabajo y bienestar tras la pandemia: evidencia para la República Checa
No full textThe rapid expansion of teleworking in the Czech Republic following the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the debate regarding its impact on employee wellbeing. This study aims to analyze the relationship between teleworking and various dimensions of personal health, specifically focusing on general wellbeing, mental health (depression), and work-life balance. Using microdata from the 2021 European Working Conditions Telephone Survey (EWCTS), the research employs linear and non-linear (logit) econometric models to test whether telework acts as a significant determinant of these dimensions.
The empirical results show that teleworking does not have a direct or robust effect on general wellbeing or the probability of depression once sociodemographic and labour characteristics are controlled. Furthermore, while partial telework initially appears to improve work-life balance in basic models, this effect loses statistical significance when introducing additional controls such as working hours and the nature of the job. The findings suggest that the potential benefits of remote work are highly dependent on job quality, workload, and organizational context rather than the work modality itself
Teletrabajo y depresión: el caso particular austriaco
No full textIn this paper, we analyze the relationship between telework and the mental health of workers in Austria, focusing specifically on depression, work–life balance, and subjective well-being. To do so, we use data from the 2021 European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) and estimate several econometric models (linear probability models, ordinary least squares, and logit models) in order to assess the significance of the effects of telework on these indicators of individual well-being.
The results show that, once sociodemographic and job-related controls are applied, telework does not exhibit a direct and robust effect on either subjective well-being or the probability of suffering from depression. In the case of work–life balance, telework initially appears to generate negative effects; however, after incorporating sociodemographic and labor controls, this significance disappears. Overall, therefore, the evidence suggests that the effects of telework on workers’ individual well-being depend more on labor and personal conditions than on the teleworking modality itself. This reinforces the importance of a contextualized analysis and is consistent with the findings of the existing literature
The Determinants of Financial Risk Performance of Target Corporation In United States
No full textThis research study examined firm specific (internal) and macroeconomic (external) factors of determining financial risk performance at Target Corporation in the United States during a ten-year period, 2014-2023. The company had variability in operating profitability and a number of indicators had indicated an increase in financial pressure, which is why it is essential to know what factors determine financial risk. Financial ratios and economic indicators were analyzed with the help of SPSS which included correlation and regression models. The three models were created to identify the impact of internal factors, external factors, and a combination of both sets of variables on Operating Profit Margin (OPM) that served as the primary proxy of financial risk. As per the results, Net Profit Margin (NPM) has been identified as the most important internal factor to enhance OPM, whereas Operational Risk has been identified as the most important internal factor to decrease OPM. With GDP and interest rate having weak effects on the outside, it means that Target is more affected by its internal managerial factors than the macroeconomic factors. The results indicate that the optimization of costs, operational failures, and the risk management of interest rate risks are pivotal in reducing the financial risk. This study has the limitation of time as it considers a single company and 10 years of data, which might not portray the industry in general; thus, further studies can involve multiple companies and other financial indicators
Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy
No full textBusiness cycles are increasingly driven by global shocks, rather than the domestic demand shocks prominent in earlier decades, posing challenges for central banks seeking to meet domestic mandates and communicate their policy decisions. This paper analyzes the evolving influence and characteristics of global and domestic shocks in advanced economies from 1970-2024 using a new FAVAR model that decomposes movements in interest rates, inflation, and output growth into four global shocks (demand, supply, oil, and monetary policy) and three domestic shocks (demand, supply, and monetary policy). We find that the role of global shocks has increased sharply over time and that their characteristics differ from those of domestic shocks across multiple dimensions. Compared to domestic shocks, global shocks have a larger supply component, higher variance, more persistent effects on inflation, and are more asymmetric (contributing more to tightening than to easing phases of monetary policy). As global supply shocks have become more prominent, central banks have also been less willing to “look through” their effects on inflation than for comparable domestic shocks. The distinct characteristics and rising influence of global shocks—particularly global supply shocks—have significant implications for modeling monetary policy and designing central bank frameworks
Los Indicadores de Concentración de Mercado en la República Dominicana: Una Revisión de la Literatura
No full textThis paper presents a review of the Dominican empirical literature on market concentration indicators, with the aim of characterizing the competitive structure of different sectors of the Dominican economy. To this end, a documentary review of academic studies, technical reports, and institutional publications is conducted. The results show that the earliest recorded estimates of market concentration date back to the mid-1980s, and that the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) has been the most widely used indicator, followed by concentration measures based on market shares (Ck indices). In addition, the evidence indicates that public institutions have produced the majority of these estimates, most notably the General Directorate of Internal Taxes (DGII) and the National Commission for the Defense of Competition (PRO-COMPETENCIA)