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The Future of Contracts in the Energy Sector: A Legal Analysis of Smart Contracts within the Oil Industry
No full textThis paper investigates the legal challenges and potentialities arising from the implementation of smart contracts and blockchain technology in the oil industry. The research analyzes how these instruments may contribute to enhancing transparency, efficiency, and promptness in access to commercial data, as well as to simplifying regulatory compliance processes. Nevertheless, the study also examines the inherent limitations and risks of their adoption, including difficulties in contractual interpretation, the rigidity of pre-programmed rules, incompatibility with open-ended clauses, and the challenge of adapting to unforeseen circumstances
Testing Asymmetric Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in Africa: Evidence from Non-Dynamic and Dynamic Panel Threshold Methods
No full textThis study employs the data of 53 countries in Africa between 1991 and 2019 to examine the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation for the youth and working age population taking into consideration gender dichotomy. The aim is to determine the validity of Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in the continent. For robustness, we employ both static and dynamic panel threshold regression methods to determine whether effect of unemployment on labour force participation varies across different unemployment level. First, out findings reveal that the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation is not linear with varying effects across gender and age groups. For female youths, DWH holds irrespective of unemployment levels, although the effect increases as unemployment rise above the threshold. In contrast, for male youth, below threshold, DWH holds in the static model but in the dynamic model AWEH holds. However, above the threshold, DHW dominates in both models. In the case of working-age population, for the women, AWEH holds below the threshold while DWH prevails above it. The difference between the static and dynamic models can be attributed to labour market adjustments, hysteresis effects and dynamics of household income. Given our findings, we suggest that target market interventions and skill development programmes should be prioritise by the governments in African countries, especially for the youth irrespective of their gender. Also, social safety net and if possible, introduce unemployment benefits across countries in the continent would be good policy options
Determinantes de la eficiencia técnica relativa en proyectos de inversión financiados por el BCIE: Evidencia basada en DEA y modelo de variables censuradas
No full textThis study assesses the relative technical efficiency of investment projects financed by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) over the period 2010-2024, evaluating their capacity to transform financial resources into development outcomes. A two-stage approach is applied, combining Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with bias correction via bootstrap and a censored regression model to examine efficiency determinants. The results indicate an average technical efficiency of 35%, with substantial heterogeneity across projects, countries, and sectors. The benchmarking analysis identifies a limited set of projects defining the efficient frontier. Moreover, efficiency is associated with both microeconomic factors related to project design and implementation and macroeconomic conditions in recipient countries
The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications
No full textThis paper compares eight widely used methods for estimating the output gap, ranging from simple deterministic trends to state space models, using both revised and real time U.S. quarterly data from 1980 onward. The resulting measures differ heavily across approaches. Average gap estimates vary by nearly four percentage points, volatility differs by an order of magnitude, and correlations across methods span from strongly positive to negative. Stability across data vintages also varies substantially. Hamilton type filters show relatively strong agreement between real time and final estimates, while simpler trend based methods are considerably less stable. These differences matter for empirical inference. The choice of output gap measure has important implications for Phillips curve estimates and for forecasting performance. Beveridge Nelson decompositions display strong predictive power for inflation when estimated using revised data but perform less well in real time, whereas refined Beveridge Nelson and modified Hamilton filters deliver more consistent results across vintages. Time varying analysis shows that the relationship between economic slack and inflation strengthens during periods of macroeconomic stress, including the early 1990s recession, the global financial crisis, and the post-pandemic period, rather than declining monotonically. For output growth forecasting, HP filter gaps reduce forecast errors using revised data, while unobserved components models perform best in real time. Although Beveridge Nelson based measures are informative for inflation, they tend to worsen growth forecasts. Combining forecasts across gap measures, particularly using Bates Granger weights, yields more reliable performance by offsetting weaknesses of individual methods. Overall, the findings highlight that methodological uncertainty in measuring slack translates directly into policy uncertainty, cautioning against exclusive reliance on any single output gap estimate
Income Growth In Morocco: An Analysis of Income Growth Following an ARFIMA Model
No full textThis paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between income growth, inflation, and unemployment in Morocco over the period 1990–2025. Income growth is modeled as a stochastic process exhibiting both short-term persistence and potential long-memory effects, captured via an ARFIMA(p, d, q) specification. The estimated income growth series is then used to investigate its influence on inflation and unemployment, linking income shocks to macro-labor outcomes within a Phillips–Okun framework. By com- bining long-memory income dynamics with empirical macro-labor modeling, the study provides new insights into how persistent fluctuations in income growth shape price adjustments and labor market responses. These findings offer both theoretical and policy-relevant implications for emerging economies experiencing cyclical or structural growth variations
The disbalances concept as an alternative to the market failure concept for the outline market inability
Full text linkThe problem of identification of efficient economic conditions, arising from the «horizontal» agents’ relationship, is considered. It’s shown that the application of classical concept of market failure is insufficient. The alternative concept of disbalances are examined. The greater universality and convenience of the “quantitative” concept of disbalances for identifying the effectiveness of states formed in the process of mutual activity of economic subjects, compared to the concepts of market failure, was substantiated. In particular, it allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of the market relationship of agents according
Which taxes should be reduced to foster employment and growth? A Fiscal simulation framework for Madagascar
No full textThis paper develops a structural fiscal simulation model to evaluate the macroeconomic and budgetary effects of alternative tax reform scenarios in Madagascar. The model examines the impact of reductions in value-added tax (VAT), personal income tax (IRSA), employers’ social contributions, and customs duties, both individually and in combination, on output, employment, and public revenues.
Simulation results show that isolated cuts in VAT or IRSA have negligible effects on production and employment but lead to substantial revenue losses. By contrast, lowering employers’ social contributions stimulates employment (+2.8%) and output (+1.8%) while limiting fiscal costs, highlighting the sensitivity of labor demand to labor costs. Reductions in customs duties modestly increase output (+1.9%) but do not affect employment significantly and generate large revenue shortfalls. A combined reform package maximizes output (+3.7%) and employment (+2.8%) but at a significant cost to public revenues (-39%), raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
Overall, targeted reductions in labor taxation emerge as the most effective instrument for promoting employment and growth while preserving fiscal balance in a developing-country context. The model provides a first-order analytical framework for Madagascar and a benchmark for future studies incorporating informality, distributional effects, and dynamic adjustments
Frontier Technology Adoption and Inclusive Green Growth in the EU: A Double-edged Sword?
No full textAs the EU Commission strategises towards a more technologically advanced region, a critical question arises: Does frontier technology adoption (FTR) truly foster inclusive green growth (IGG)? This study answers this question by empirically examining the impact of FTR on IGG, while accounting for the contingency role of electricity access. Applying pooled least squares, Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, and the dynamic generalised method of moments techniques, we uncover a paradox: while FTR accelerates economic growth and lowers greenhouse gas emissions, it exacerbates income inequality. The second lesson from this study is that although electricity access enhances the growth and environmental sustainability benefits of FTR, it only mitigates (but does not nullify) the downside of income inequality. These findings underscore the crucial need for the EU Commission to establish complementary and compensatory mechanisms to ensure that the EU’s technological leap delivers greener and more inclusive growth
Determinantes de la eficiencia técnica relativa en proyectos de inversión financiados por el BCIE: Evidencia basada en DEA y modelo de variables censuradas
No full textThis study assesses the relative technical efficiency of investment projects financed by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) over the period 2010-2024, evaluating their capacity to transform financial resources into development outcomes. A two-stage approach is applied, combining Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with bias correction via bootstrap and a censored regression model to examine efficiency determinants. The results indicate an average technical efficiency of 35%, with substantial heterogeneity across projects, countries, and sectors. The benchmarking analysis identifies a limited set of projects defining the efficient frontier. Moreover, efficiency is associated with both microeconomic factors related to project design and implementation and macroeconomic conditions in recipient countries
Weighted Pro-Rata: Exploration of a Promising New Music Streaming Remuneration System
Full text linkDespite driving the recent resurgence of music industry revenue, digital streaming platforms (DSPs) face persistent criticism over the fairness of their pro-rata royalty payout systems, sparking legislative initiatives in the EU, US, and UK. This article asks how much of the perceived unfairness in DSPs’ pro-rata payouts can be ascribed to platforms offering disparate types of music consumption without any organizational separation, and how the status quo could be improved. DSPs offer access to large libraries of records that users can browse and play from, as well as “programmed” listening features, e.g. editorial or algorithmic playlists. The latter channel constitutes 40% of Spotify streams by now, and pays at the same rate per stream as the former channel. Since DSPs pay by streams market share, boosting the streams of some artists via algorithmic or editorial promotion diminishes the payout for all others. I develop empirical and theoretical arguments for why paying every stream the same price is suboptimal, by presenting disconnects between the pure number of streams and consumers’ level of engagement with content. This suggests that under the pro-rata model, the payment distribution does not accurately reflect consumers’ preferences. I further show how a stream-source weighted pro-rata system aka active engagement model can increase the pay rate for active streams by up to 67% depending on the choice of the weighting factor, hereby diminishing the financial impact of platforms’ promotion choices and rewarding artists for creating music that consumers want to actively seek out