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South Africa’s financial services trade and trade potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area
Get PDFThis study investigates the nature, importance and prospects for growth of South Africa’s trade in financial services and trade potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement. It does so by identifying and measuring the share, growth performance and some of the characteristics of South Africa’s financial services trade in the aggregate and with selected trading partners and regions. It also computes South Africa’s trade potential in financial and finance-related services trade with selected African trading partners amid the ongoing AfCFTA services trade negotiations, using trade complementarity indices (TCIs). Finally, the study estimates the effect of regional trade agreement participation on bilateral financial services trade involving African economies using a gravity model. The study employs the use of descriptive trade statistics to analyse the share and growth performance of South Africa’s services trade in the aggregate and at the sub-sector level, based on balance of payments (BOP) data for the years 2005 to 2022 from the ITC, UNCTAD and WTO Trade in Services Database. Bilateral trade data from the OECD and WTO BaTIS Database is also used in the analysis of intra-African trade. In order to investigate trade through Mode 3, information on FDI statistics is sourced from recent reports. Through analysing trade complementarity indices (TCIs), the study finds that South Africa has significant potential to increase exports of financial and finance-related services to Mauritius, Ghana and the SADC and non-TFTA regions. South Africa has significant import TCIs with the COMESA and non- TFTA regions as well as Egypt, Tunisia and Kenya. The gravity model estimation reveals that membership in African regional groupings like the AfCFTA, SADC, COMESA and the EAC have no significant positive impact as yet on intra-African financial services trade.Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 202
Mining MeerKAT data for minute to hour timescale transients and variable sources
Get PDFIn radio astronomy, minute-to-hour timescale transients and variable sources present an understudied population. We now have an unprecedented view of the transient radio sky due to the advent of new telescopes (such as the MeerKAT) with high instantaneous sensitivity, excellent snapshot imaging capabilities, and a large field of view. We can now probe into this population. This thesis presents the search for minute-to-hour timescale transient and variable sources in two of MeerKAT archival observations: the COSMOS and MACS J2140.2−2339 fields. The fields were observed for eight and five hours at the UHF band, respectively. We employed the PARROT transient and variable search pipeline currently being developed by the RATT group at Rhodes University. The pipeline’s input is a cross-calibrated measurement set, and its outputs are light curves extracted from all the sources in the restored image of the field. Using the light curves from the pipeline, we detected two variable sources in the COSMOS field, scintillating Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs), which are most likely caused by the turbulent plasma in the interstellar medium. Due to persistent ionospheric diffraction, no variable sources were detected in the MACS J2140.2−2339 field, and no transients were detected in either field. The thesis also highlights areas where improvements to the PARROT pipeline can be implemented.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 202
Exploring the influence of power dynamics on collaborative governance in the Thukela Catchment
No full textSouth Africa is a water-scarce country with unequally distributed water. This dilemma has been brought about by insufficient water supply and governance fragmentation, among other drivers. The democratic national water policies (National Water Act No. 36 of 1998) intend to foster collaborative water governance (CWG), where stakeholders within catchments must come together to learn and share decision-making responsibility through collaborative platforms that should ensure the sustainability and equitable distribution of water resources. Still, CWG is not functioning well in most parts of the country, partly due to power dynamics that compromise dynamics on collaborative governance processes and outcomes in the Upper Thukela Catchment (UTC). It did this by identifying the roles of stakeholders, looking into the nature of power dynamics among stakeholders and how these affect collaborative processes, and by examining how power dynamics interact with resources and mechanisms to influence collaborative governance outcomes. The research used two interrelated conceptual frameworks (Franks and Cleaver (2007) and the 4Rs framework (Mayers, 2005)) to explore power dynamics. The study was conducted through qualitative research using a case study approach, which consists of data collection methods such as in-depth semi-structured interviews, document review, direct observation and participant observation. The 4Rs framework highlighted the insufficient involvement of critical stakeholders in water governance, specifically those from the public sector with water management and governance authority rights. The analysis also exposed conflicting relationships among stakeholders involved in water governance, mostly stemming from some public sector stakeholders evading roles and responsibilities, a lack of trust, and limited access to information. These factors contribute to challenges and tensions within the water governance landscape in the UTC. The research also showed that the presence of different political parties in the water governance and management space seems to be the primary roots of the power dynamics that affect the processes of water governance and management. Political parties contesting power over the same communities led to conflict, corruption, competition, negligence, and sabotage. These challenges impact operational flow, service delivery, sense of urgency, and decisionmaking. Thus, the nature of power dynamics in collaborative governance processes further exposed the underlying issue of limited statehood. Application of the Franks and Cleaver (2007) framework revealed that through their influence on power dynamics, resources and mechanisms of access affect livelihoods and catchment outcomes. The study contributes to the body of knowledge on the influence of power dynamics on collaborative governance and provides recommendations for further studies to improve collaborative water governance. It highlights the complex interplay between power dynamics, stakeholder participation, and water governance processes in the UTC. To improve collaborative water governance, it is crucial to address limited stakeholder participation, mitigate the negative influence of political parties, and meaningfully empower local communities.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Environmental Science, 202
Macroinvertebrate population dynamics, community composition and diversity patterns of two coastal lakes in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Get PDFThe 2018 South African National Biodiversity Assessment (NBA) identified eight freshwater lakes of national ecological importance and a lack of understanding of their biology. The assessment further called for baseline foundational data for their conservation. Aquatic invertebrates are considered to be reliable and sensitive biological indicators of environmental and water quality changes, and understanding aquatic invertebrate dynamics in these systems will provide a comprehensive understanding of how they can be better protected. The NBA also highlighted a gap in data associated with ecological response to landscape developments and climate change (mainly below average precipitation and increased temperatures) and how this contributes to aquatic resource conservation. This further complicates the modelling of important ecological thresholds and hampers the prediction of possible responses of these ecosystems to environmental changes. This gap informed the aims and rationale of this dissertation; to identify longer-term spatiotemporal trends in aquatic invertebrate communities in Lake Sibaya and Lake Mzingazi and to determine whether the surrounding land use changes could lead to long-term changes in aquatic invertebrate communities of both lakes by comparing recent survey data with historical datasets. In Chapter 2, this dissertation investigated the population dynamics of freshwater shrimp, Caridina africana in Lake Sibaya and Mzingazi and compared the data to that of 1975 study published by Hart (1981). This was done to assess any changes in the C. africana populations due to the considerable changes in land use and weather patterns that have occurred in the last 48 years in and around the systems. Results from Lake Sibaya and Lake Mzingazi were also compared to determine any differences in urban and agricultural stressors presented to C. africana populations. This chapter hypothesised that increases in anthropogenic pollution, invasive species and other habitat modifications at Lake Sibaya and Lake Mzingazi would lead to (1) reductions in shrimp densities and changes in population dynamics when comparing with the 1975 data from Hart (1981). Additionally, it was predicted that (2) Caridina africana abundances found at Lake Mzingazi would be lower than those found at Lake Sibaya (3) due to different water quality variables associated with land use. Results showed that C. africana population densities at Lake Sibaya and lake level recordings had experienced significant decreases since 1975 with densities being significantly lower in 2021. Additional differences seen in 2021 when compared to 1975 were that females were more abundant than males, individuals between the sizes of 3mm and 5mm were most abundant instead of those in the smallest size class (<0.83mm – 1.67mm) and females only dominated size classes above 4mm instead of all size classes above 2.5mm. Populations at Lake Sibaya were negatively correlated with nitrate concentrations in 2021 and populations at Lake Mzingazi were negatively correlated with temperature according to generalised linear models. These results emphasized the importance of pollution mitigation, sustainable water abstraction and the maintenance of natural water temperature ranges in the conservation of lentic C. africana populations. There was also no evidence that urbanisation and agriculture presented different threats to freshwater shrimp populations. In Chapter 3, this dissertation aimed to quantify the littoral aquatic invertebrate diversity and assemblage patterns from Lake Sibaya and Lake Mzingazi to provide comprehensive baseline datasets for these coastal systems. This chapter also aimed to investigate the impacts of landscape developments and habitat change on aquatic invertebrate communities by understanding significant water quality parameters as drivers of community variation. Predictions for Chapter 3 were that increases in agricultural and anthropogenic disturbance and habitat modification will lead to (1) aquatic invertebrate community composition at lakes Sibaya and Mzingazi being structured according to water quality variables that stem from surrounding land-use activities, leading to (2) differing community structures at each lake. Lastly, it was hypothesised that (3) the presence of the invasive snail Tarebia granifera would likely be affecting the aquatic invertebrate diversity and composition of both lakes. According to linear models, aquatic invertebrate abundance at Lake Sibaya was negatively affected by salinity, lake level and phosphate concentration, and positively associated with temperature. Taxa richness and Pielou’s evenness at the lake were negatively associated with conductivity and nitrate concentrations respectively. The aquatic invertebrate community at Lake Sibaya also followed typical seasonal patterns. At Lake Mzingazi, Pielou’s evenness was negatively associated with nitrate and ammonium concentrations and no typical seasonal patterns were evident in the community composition. Communities at Lake Mzingazi also exhibited resilience despite changes in physicochemical parameters, emphasising the difficulty in predicting aquatic community response to habitat modification due to lake-specific community resilience. Tarebia granifera populations at Lake Sibaya were found to negatively affect invertebrate diversity scores according to generalised linear models. Additionally, no individuals of Melanoides tuberculata were found in either system indicating the possibility that these native snails may have been outcompeted by their invasive counterpart. The prevalence of significant stressors associated with habitat disturbance and the unexpected results seen at Lake Mzingazi emphasized the importance of monitoring aquatic invertebrate communities in response to climate change and associated land use developments to adequately understand the long-term threats these changes pose to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity conservation.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Zoology and Entomology, 202
Suspicious activity reports: Enhancing the detection of terrorist financing and suspicious transactions in migrant remittances
Get PDFMigrant remittances have become an important factor in poverty alleviation and microeconomic development in low-income nations. Global migrant remittances are expected to exceed US $630 billion by 2023, according to the World Bank. In addition to offering an alternate source of income that supplements the recipient’s household earnings, they are less likely to be affected by global economic downturns, ensuring stability and a consistent stream of revenue. However, the ease of global migrant remittance financial transfers has attracted the risk of being abused by terrorist organizations to quickly move and conceal operating cash, hence facilitating terrorist financing. This study aims to develop an unsupervised machine-learning model capable of detecting suspicious financial transactions associated with terrorist financing in migrant remittances. The data used in this study came from a World Bank survey of migrant remitters in Belgium. To understand the natural structures and grouping in the dataset, agglomerative hierarchical clustering and k-prototype clustering techniques were employed. This established the number of clusters present in the dataset making it possible to compare individual migrant remittances in the dataset with their peers. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) and an Local Outlier Factor - Isolation Forest (LOF-IF) algorithm were applied to analyze and detect suspicious transactions in the dataset. A traditional Rule-Based Method (RBM) was also created as a benchmark algorithm that evaluates model performance. The results show that the SEM model classifies a significantly high number of transactions as suspicious, making it prone to detecting false positives. Finally, the study applied the proposed ensemble outlier detection model to detect suspicious transactions in the same data set. The proposed ensemble model utilized an Isolation Forest (IF) for pruning and a Local Outlier Factor (LOF) to detect local outliers. The model performed exceptionally well, being able to detect over 90% of suspicious transactions in the testing data set during model cross-validation.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Statistics, 202
Application of SWAT+ model to assess the hydrology of irrigated agricultural catchments in Western Cape, South Africa
Get PDFAgricultural activities can modify hydrological processes in catchments. An in-depth investigation of the impact of agriculture on hydrological processes is thus crucial for sustainable water management and utilisation planning in agricultural catchments. Hydrological models are widely used as practical tools to estimate and understand hydrological processes at various scales in catchments. However, it is often challenging to represent hydrological processes accurately in agriculture-dominated areas due to their complexity and the structural inadequacy of models. Complexities driven by agricultural developments such as reservoirs, cultivation irrigation, and water transfers are often intricate and difficult to represent in detail. The current study applied the SWAT+ hydrological model to the agriculture-dominated Twee and Leeu catchments in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The SWAT+ model was preferred because it is versatile in representing multiple reservoirs and irrigation from multiple sources. The model application aimed to enhance the understanding of hydrological processes and the impact of agricultural water use on catchment hydrology, explore the capabilities and performance of this relatively new version of the SWAT in a complex catchment and provide baseline hydrology input for systems models that were used to formulate a water management plan for the catchment. The SWAT+ model was able to represent the significant number of reservoirs in the catchment. In some cases, small farm dams had to be lumped together to deal with the model's structural inadequacy. The model performed well in terms of observed and simulated streamflow comparison. NSE and R2 values above the standard of 0.5 were obtained for both catchments. Moreover, an NSE of 0.7 at a daily time-step simulation was obtained for the Leeu Catchment validation period, indicating a generally impressive SWAT+ performance. The model indicated that hydrological processes in the area were largely dominated by evapotranspiration, which is expected of semi-arid regions. 55% of the total water input into the Twee quaternary catchment is lost through evapotranspiration, while 22% is converted into surface runoff. Interflow and groundwater flow account for 9% and 9% of the catchment water, respectively. The remaining 5% is distributed to soil moisture and groundwater storage. For the Leeu, the model simulated a loss of 67% of the precipitation through evapotranspiration. Interflow and surface runoff were estimated to be 25% and 24%, respectively. Groundwater contribution to the stream accounts for 7%. Therefore, evapotranspiration and surface runoff are the dominant processes from a water balance perspective, whereas groundwater flow is also significant. Agricultural activities impacted the hydrological system significantly, and this is mainly attributed to the construction of numerous reservoirs and the subsequent intensive irrigation in the dry summer periods. The model simulation revealed that the reservoir and irrigation reduced the annual average streamflow by 71% in the Twee Catchment. In the Leeu Catchment, reservoirs and irrigation resulted in an annual average streamflow reduction of 77%. Therefore, agriculture has significantly altered flow patterns in the catchment, particularly downstream areas, during drier years. In conclusion, understanding of hydrological processes, reservoir and irrigation impact on catchment flow dynamics are the key outcomes that support decision-making regarding sustainable water management and utilisation planning. The broader outcomes, including spatially distributed flows and irrigation demand for different crop types, were used as baseline inputs for systems models that explored various water management options. SWAT+ thus played a crucial role in developing a water management plan for the area. Although the model exhibited some structural deficiencies in representing some catchment complexities, it fairly represented and enhanced our understanding of the hydrological dynamics of the Twee and Leeu Catchments. Additionally, the model has proven to be a versatile tool that can be applied for practical catchment water management in the agriculture-dominated catchments of South Africa.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 202
Exploring social learning practices for catchment management: a case study of two catchments in South Africa
Get PDFSocial learning is achieved through a wide range of practices and is understood in different ways through multiple definitions in the literature. It is recognised as an outcome of stakeholder engagement through collaborative activities such as catchment management. Stakeholder engagement and collaboration in catchment management helps stakeholders understand the complex systems they work in, by enabling deliberation, dialogue, knowledge sharing and interdependencies. These are seen as processes which enable not only the sustainable use of natural resources but also help to achieve outcomes of transformative social learning. In partnership with the Living Catchments Project (implemented by the South African National Biodiversity Institute - SANBI), this study explores social learning practices and facilitation – and the role these play for transformation. Exploring two case studies, the Olifants River catchment and the Umzimvubu River catchment, the study adopted a qualitative participatory case study approach. It used observations, semi-structured interviews and reflections to look at the social learning practices in the two catchments. Additionally, it made use of the Social Learning, Knowledge Management and Mediation (SLKMM) framework as an analytical tool to investigate social learning practices and tools in the cases and explore how support for these can be enhanced in future. The results showed that there are existing social learning platforms and facilitation practices in the two catchments. Though not often explicit, social learning exists, and various tools (analytical, visual, participatory, and conceptual) and practices can be used to facilitate social learning. The greatest challenge for transformative social learning in these catchments is the need for a monitoring and evaluation practice which documents and makes explicit important learning and transformation taking place. This is therefore why, through a set of recommendations, it is suggested that it is key to build capacities within existing facilitators and to work closely with stakeholders from research, policy, and implementation to grow the existing social learning work, for future transformation.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Environmental Science, 202
RU sleepy? - sleep/wake characteristics and sleep quality among undergraduate students attending Rhodes University
Get PDFBackground: University students, specifically older adolescents and young adults, are at high risk of insufficient and poor-quality sleep due to age-related biological changes converging with several systemic factors unique to the university context. These include but are not limited to freedom and independence, communal living environments, academic demands and associated stress, erratic schedules, and high technology use. While there has been extensive research on sleep quality in students in other parts of the world, there has been comparatively less in South Africa, which may present unique contextual influencing factors. Thus, this study aimed to characterise sleep/wake characteristics and sleep quality in a sample of undergraduate students attending a South African University. Additionally, the study aimed to determine the impact of certain demographic factors on sleep quality in the students. Lastly, the current study aimed to determine what factors may influence the students' sleep quality. Method: This study adopted a cross-sectional design and explored sleep quality and sleep/wake characteristics (e.g., bedtimes, rise times, sleep duration, sleep latency, etc.) through an online survey circulated amongst undergraduate students via Rhodes university email platforms and student social media pages. The testing period started on 15 August 2022 and continued until 8 October 2022. The survey consisted of three main sections: (1) socio-demographic factors; (2) the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI); (3) an open-ended question that asked students to comment on the factors which they felt may be influencing their sleep over the previous month. Results: 393 students participated in this study, which corresponds to a response rate of 6.30%. The results revealed notable levels of poor sleep quality (mean global score of 9.79 (±3.36)) and a high prevalence of poor sleepers within the whole sample (over 90%), as well as across different demographic groups. Analysis indicated poor overall sleep quality, and concerning sleep/wake characteristics, such as, bedtimes, rise times, sleep latency, time in bed, habitual sleep efficiency, sleep duration, etc. Additionally, participants reported extended sleep latencies and difficulties initiating sleep within 30 minutes. Daytime dysfunction was prominent, indicating challenges in daily functioning. Demographic comparisons revealed that male students generally reported better subjective sleep quality and lower global PSQI scores than female students, with 2 females presenting with poorer sleep quality overall. Students living in university residences reported significantly later bedtimes and shorter sleep durations than off- campus students. Regarding year of study, third-year students reported better subjective sleep quality, longer times in bed, longer sleep durations and overall better sleep quality than first- and second-year students. Regarding funding mechanisms, students on the National Students Financial Aid Scheme had significantly higher subjective sleep quality scores but later bedtimes than students in the "other" funding groups. Thematic analysis revealed that several self-reported factors impacted student sleep negatively. Mental health issues were the most commonly cited theme (26.72% of students), which included anxiety, stress, worry, and overthinking. University-related factors were the second most frequently cited theme (25.49% encompassing academics, funding, and navigating university life). Environmental influences comprised of issues with noise, particularly in university residences, weather, and lighting. Discussion: In sum, the results of this study indicate that in this sample, the drivers of poor sleep quality seemed to be late bedtimes, early rise times, prolonged sleep latency, frequent night awakenings, and overall short sleep duration, all of which were driven by several systemic factors. These findings underscore the importance of assessing sleep health beyond just sleep duration and indicate compromised sleep health within this population, evidenced by high levels of daytime dysfunction due to inadequate and poor-quality sleep. The challenges faced by university students extend across various aspects of their lives, including sleep health, with poor sleep quality and insufficient sleep having significant implications for academic performance, mental health, and overall well-being as they transition into adulthood.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Human Kinetics and Ergonomics, 202
Participatory tools for developing & applying a water management plan: a practical introduction
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Screening and characterisation of novel compounds and their derivatives from South African medicinal plants against triple negative breast cancer cells
No full textAccess restricted. Expected release in 2026.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Biochemistry, Microbiology & Bioinformatics, 202