Policy Documentation Center

Zaborowski, Marcin

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Policy 
Documentation 
Center Feauture Article
GREAT EXPECTATIONS
AMERICA AND EUROPE AFTER THE ELECTIONS
Marcin Zaborowski
European expectations about post-Bush America are running high. Like the rest of the world
Europeans are gripped by Obamamania. Views on a possible win by John McCain, whilst clearly not
the preferred option in Europe, are overall positive too. The truth is that the Europeans can’t wait to
see the back of George W. Bush and that they expect that things can only get better with his
successor. American expectations about future co-operation with Europe are also considerable. John
McCain has already travelled to Europe after securing his nomination and Barack Obama is about to
come too. Both McCain and Obama made efforts to reach out to the Europeans to secure their cooperation
on a range of issues, including Afghanistan, Iran and climate change.
Are things really likely to get better after eight tense and unhappy years in transatlantic relations?
Indeed it is likely that relations between Europe and the US will improve. Bush never really cared or
showed much interest in Europe. His foreign policy was ostentatiously unilateral. Both Obama and to a
larger extent McCain (who unlike Obama referred directly to the EU) speak with respect about Europe.
Both candidates refer to multilateralism, although, Obama is probably more genuine in this, or rather
his understanding of multilateralism is closer to that of Europeans. Both Obama and McCain want to
enter into new and stronger arms control agreements with Russia. Both candidates are ‘greener’ than
Bush – they do not deny that climate change is happening and both are in favour of introducing
compulsory caps on greenhouse emissions. Finally, for Poland and other countries that are in favour
of Ukraine’s and Georgia’s integration with NATO, it is reassuring that both Obama and McCain
supported NATO’s expansion to these countries.
As for the Europeans, there has already been a considerable rapprochement with the US, prompted
by last year’s elections in France. Transatlantic understanding on Iran is now deeper than ever before,
European contributions to ISAF in Afghanistan have modestly increased and EU-NATO relations could
be significantly revitalised should France fully rejoin NATO’s integrated military command, which
seems fully plausible.
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There are indeed some grounds for optimism, but one needs to be careful not to raise too many
expectations. For example, those Europeans who expect that America’s policy towards the Arab-Israeli
conflict would change will be disappointed. Few expected that McCain would be more sympathetic to
the Palestinian case, but Obama’s mixed heritage, the fact that his father was Muslim and his middle
name is Hussein, made some believe that he would pursue a more balanced approach.
Recently Obama proved them wrong in his speech to the powerful pro-Israeli AIPEC group, which he
delivered only a few hours after winning his nomination. In the speech the Democratic nominee
declared that ‘Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel’ and that it ‘must remain undivided’. He also
stressed that ‘Israel’s identity as a Jewish state must be preserved’, hence implicitly dismissing the
Palestinian ‘right of return’.
Some Europeans believe that America’s position on Iran will change in the way that would force
dialogue on Tehran and defuse tensions in the Gulf. This, again is unlikely. McCain made it clear that
he would rather bomb Iran than talk to its leaders. Whilst it is true that Obama took the opposite
position and offered unconditional negotiations with the Iranians, he never ruled out the use of force
and stressed in his AIPEC speech ‘I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a
nuclear weapon; everything in my power; everything’. So, there is almost no difference between the
candidates regarding harsher sanctions against Tehran, including secondary sanctions that the
Europeans oppose.
There is also the issue of missile defence installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. John
McCain fully supports Bush’s plan to place the installations in the these countries, in fact, the
Republican expressed his support for Poland’s demand to up the American offer and strengthen
security relations between the two countries. However, Obama is far more sceptical. The Democrat
raised argued that it must be proven that the system is workable before he would decide to continue
with any further investment in it. Obama also argued that the missile defence system must not ‘divide
‘new Europe’ from ‘old Europe’, and implying that further negotiations with all European allies were
needed. It is therefore possible that, in the case of Obama’s victory, the Czechs, and perhaps also the
Poles, may find themselves in the situation when the costly deal they signed with the Bush
administration is discontinued.
The Americans are also down for some disappointments. It is generally expected in Washington that
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with the fresh start, the Europeans would do more to share the burden in Afghanistan and maybe even
in Iraq. This is also unlikely to happen. Both operations are unpopular in Europe and defence
establishments are concerned about over-stretching their meagre resources.
What can be done to preserve a good momentum in transatlantic relations after the elections? Two
things: first, it is important to reassess expectations in a more realistic manner. The next president will
be more EU-friendly and more of a multilateralist. If Obama wins, US policy in Iraq is likely to change
and this would have implications for the level of the US’s presence in Afghanistan. But, no matter who
wins many policies would remain the same, including the Middle East and East Asia. Americans too
need to realise the limitations on Europe’s involvement in Afghanistan. It is difficult to maintain, let
alone increase investment in the war that has been hugely unpopular for years. Without a profound
change of the nature of this operation this would not alter.
Second, we must be more open about our differences and about the challenges that lie ahead. One
can hear these days in Europe that it is best to avoid the mention of Afghanistan or Iraq in our
discussions with the Americans, because, we do not have much to offer there and the US expects too
much from us. Regardless of whether the EU can or cannot offer anything there, it is clear that
relations with the US will not improve just because we pretend that these issues do not exist.
MARCIN ZABOROWSKI is a Senior Research Fellow at the European Union Institute
for Security Studies (EUISS) in Paris, where he deals with Transatlantic relations, US
Foreign Policy and East Asia. He was formerly lecturer in International Relations and
European Politics at Aston University in the UK from 2001 to 2005, and was Coordinator
the Transatlantic Programme at the Centre for International Relations in
Warsaw from 2002 to 2004.


English

Great expectations. America and Europe after the elections

The baseline inflation and GDP projection of the Inflation Report, February 
Per cent 2009 2010 
Consumer price inflation 3,7 2,8 
Economic growth -3,5 -0,5 
 
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Projections for inflation and growth in the February 2009 issue of the Quarterly Report on Inflation

Quarterly Report on Inflation (February 2009)

Sirghi, Iulia

THE POLICY OF BIRTH RATE STIMULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: REALITIES AND 
RISKS 
 
Iulia SIRGHI 
Considering the fact that the birth rate in Moldova is declining continuously, the Moldovan authorities under-
took more actions to improve the unfavorable demographical situation and the social protection of children. 
These actions were also meant to fulfill the social protection provisions of the European Union – Republic of 
Moldova Action Plan, subscribed by the authorities. In particular, the article 18 of PAUERM stipulates the ra-
tionalization of benefits for children and enhancement of the assistance efficiency for needy families. 
 
Thus, according to the National Report II and III on implementation of the ONU Convention on the Rights of 
the Child, presented during the 50-th session of the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child (January 20, Ge-
neva), the size of the social allowances given to the families with children, including children with disabilities 
has essentially grown during the last years, as compared to the 2000 year. Besides, the one-time childbirth al-
lowance has increased 11 times. In spite of the repeated increases of social allowances, the demographical 
situation of the country has not improved. In this article, we will try to analyze the reasons of this controversial 
effect taking into account the existent demographic trends in Moldova. 
 
The current situation 
 
The birth rate in the Republic of Moldova was continuously decreasing until 2002, when it was 9.9‰. After 
2002, an unessential growing trend was noticed (varying between 10.5‰ and 10.6‰ during the period 2004 – 
2007, Figure 1). Under these circumstances, an unfavorable convergence trend of Moldova to the average of 
the European countries, where the birth rate was 10.64‰ in 2007 and 10.80‰ in 2008 has been noticed. In 
2007, the birth rate in Republic of Moldova was already a bit smaller than the one in the European Union – 
10.60‰ comparing with 10.64‰  [1] 
 
Figure 1. Evolution of the birth rate 
 
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 
Note: * the data is presented for the whole country; starting with 1997 the data does not cover the Eastern rayons 
(districts) of the country. 
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Policy Brief №5, April 2, 2009 
Association for Participatory Democracy 
Considering that the birth rate was in a continuous decline, it becomes clear the reason why the authorities fo-
cused on increasing the allowances granted for the birth of the first and every next child, but also the allowances 
for looking after the child. One could ascertain that there are real grounds for orienting the policy efforts to-
wards improving the situation in this field. 
Figure 2. Infantile death rate 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: NBS, the Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova, 2008 
But the major problem is that the low birth rate can not be “attacked frontally”, through targeted policy instru-
ments. In general, the birth rate is a phenomenon hard to influence. That is why one of the short term solutions 
for reversing the negative natural growth should be the mortality rate reduction, including the infant mortality 
rate. The situation of the infant mortality rate was traditionally bad in Moldova, including in the soviet times. 
For example, in 1975 the infant mortality rate was of approximately 44 cases at 1000 children born-alive. In 
general, the situation of the infant mortality rate improved during the transition period, but this indicator is still 
very high as compared with the European average (3 – 5 cases at 1000 children born-alive).   
The reasons of the existent situation 
As well as the big majority of the countries in transition, Republic of Moldova faces with demographic issues, 
especially due to the birth rate decrease. This situation is caused by certain factors, some connected to the eco-
nomic transition, other less or not at all connected to that. Among the main factors, one could mention: 
• The demographic transition, that would have taken place no matter the economic transition (and which, 
actually, started long before the economic transition). The demographic transition is characterized by 
the increasing economic role of women, the delay of the first birth and the decrease of female fertility. 
This phenomenon does not only apply to Moldova, but also to all European countries. 
• Obviously, the difficulties typical for the period of economic transition have also played an important 
role. A significant part of the population of the Republic of Moldova was facing poverty, including the 
young families, which can not afford themselves, economically speaking, to give birth to children. Ac-
tually, the economic development is one of the most important factors that influence the population 
development and therefore the couples’ decision to have or not children. The poverty affects in a 
greater proportion the rural population, where a much higher birth rate used to be registered in the past. 
On the other hand, the data show that families with children are more inclined to the poverty; the pov-
erty risk increases proportionally to the number of children in a family. Approximately 67% of all do-
mestic households are households with one child and without children. These households are the less 
poor, while the most affected by poverty are the households with 4 and more children; the absolute 
poverty rate is 65.4% in these cases. [2] Besides, the extreme poverty is more marked in this kind of 
households, getting up to 14.8%, or by 10 p.p. more than the country average. 
• The erosion of family values becomes a more visible trend, characterized by: the decreasing number of 
families, early divorces, families with a decreasing number of members, the high rate of divorce, the 
generation conflicts inside the family and the society, the increasing number of children born outside 
of formal marriage. 
2 
 
 
3 
• The intense emigration processes, including the internal migration, mostly to the urban areas, where 
the young people that form families acquire a typically urban model of demographic reproduction, with 
less and later-born children. The lack of jobs and absence of any physical and social infrastructure are 
the main factors that make the young people leave the villages. Another important issue is women’s 
migration: in 2006 the women migrants constituted 35% of all active female population. [3] Obviously, 
the emigration, especially the permanent one and carried out in conditions of increased social and eco-
nomic risk, is not exactly the suitable background for giving birth to a child. 
• The high economic and psychological costs of giving birth to a child in Moldova. The medical investi-
gations that have to be done during the pregnancy period, even though “are ensured free of charge by 
the state” are in practice paid by patients, often “under the counter”. This occurs either due to the high 
level of corruption in the medical institutions or due to bad organization of the system, or because of a 
bad tradition. Unfortunately, the allowances that are granted at the birth of the first and every next 
child do not even manage to cover the un-formal maternity expenses of the parents. 
 
The demographical policy 
 
There is no demographic policy in Moldova, although, at least considering the speeches, the demographic situa-
tion of the Republic of Moldova worries the authorities. More official documents note the critical situation in 
this field. Thus, the Government Decision no. 741 from June 29, 2007, on demographic situation in the Repub-
lic of Moldova includes a plan of urgent actions in the demographic field; among them: the increase of the sin-
gle allowance for the childbirth and the allowance for taking care of the child, material support for the child. 
These have continuously grown (even before the approval of the decision), they are to increase also in 2009 
(Chart 1) 
 
But so far, there was no clear explanation on behalf of the authorities that would justify from the demographic 
point of view the continuous increase of allowances for children. The data from Chart 1 clearly shows that the 
allowances for children do not even cover the existence minimum. The only exception is the single allowance at 
the birth of every next child that reached more than 122% of the existence minimum in the first two quarters of 
the 2008. But we consider that the way the ratio between the allowances for children and the existence mini-
mum for children is not estimated correctly. According to current practice, the monthly allowances for taking 
care of the child until 3 years old for ensured persons is related to the existence minimum for children under 1 
year old, which is twice smaller than the existence minimum for children aged 1 – 6 years. This fact may be 
confusing, because it increases the level of child necessities cover from the allowances paid by the state. In the 
end, in practice, these allowances cover less then 30% of the value of existence minimum for children. 
Chart 1. The evolution of the allowances granted to families with children  
Source: NBS 
*minimum value of the paid allowances  
  1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 
Single allowance for giving birth to the first child 
insured persons 144 144 245 370 420 420 500 800 1000 1200 1400 
uninsured persons 144 144 245 245 300 380 500 800 1000 1200 1400 
Single allowance for giving birth to every child 
insured persons 108 108 165 250 280 280 500 800 1000 1500 1700 
uninsured persons 108 108 165 165 200 250 500 800 1000 1500 1700 
Monthly allowance for taking care of the child 
insured persons 
(until 3 years of 
age) 
32.4 32.4 50 75 100 100 149.9 182.8 230 230.7 250* 
uninsured persons 
(until 1.5 years of 
age) 
32.4 32.4 50 50 75 75 100 100 100 150 150 
Monthly allow-
ance for taking 
care of the child 
aged 1.5 (3) - 16 
16.2 16.2 25 25 25 50 50 50 50     
Chart 2. The ratio between the allowances for children and the existence for children, % 
Source: author’s calculations based on the NBS data 
*the data are presented for the first two trimesters 
 
Even more, it could be possible that the financial reasons would be not prevailing for couples when deciding 
to have or not have children. That is why, it is not surprising that despite the periodical increase of the child-
birth allowances, the birth rate has not essentially changed. And the decision to delay the birth of the first 
child is influenced by a set of factors much more complex than the allowances received in the first 3 years of 
the child’s life. 
 
The UE-RM Action Plan clearly stipulates inside the chapter about cooperation priorities with the Republic 
of Moldova only the rationalization of benefits for children and increasing the efficiency of the assistance 
for poor families. This priority can be considered an indirect instrument of influencing the birth rate in the 
Republic of Moldova, but only for poor families, because a rationalization of benefits would also mean the 
expulsion from the system of families with incomes over the average that would afford to take care of the 
baby without the state allowances. On the other hand, this provision does not necessarily mean an increase 
of allowances for raising and taking care of the child. 
 
Recommendations 
 
In the existent context, the main recommendations would be: 1) to asses the possibilities for optimizing the 
allowances for taking care of the child, by determining the average monthly revenues per family in order to 
determine the need to pay these allowances; 2) to develop another methodology for calculating the monthly 
allowances for taking care of the child, because the one applied at the present is based on the average reve-
nues received before the child’s birth. Present calculation method expands even more the imbalances, mean-
ing that families with low incomes receive smaller allowances for taking care of the child. 
 
Other issues that should be taken into account when formulating options for policies to increase the birth 
rate should be: the development of the social and physical infrastructure, especially in the rural area, so that 
young people be motivated to go back to the villages, as well as offering adequate financial incentives for 
the post-birth period that should cover at least the existence minimum for children. But it is clear that these 
effects will not be visible in the near future. 
 
Conclusions 
 
It is clear that the development and implementation of an ample demographical strategy, with positive ef-
fects upon the birth rate would be very expensive, and it surely will not bring short term results, because the 
decision of having children or not is influenced by a set of relatively complex factors. The only solution 
would still be a medium and long term approach of this phenomenon, oriented towards transforming the 
Republic of Moldova, especially the rural areas, in attractive spaces for life and development. As long as the 
monthly allowances for taking care of children will not essentially grow, so that they cover at least the exis-
4 
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 
Single allowance for giving birth to the first child 
insured persons 73.3 71.6 65.5 69.9 93.9 99.73 97.95 
uninsured persons 48.5 51.1 59.3 69.9 93.9 99.73 97.95 
Single allowance for giving birth to every next child 
insured persons 49.5 47.7 43.7 69.9 93.9 99.73 122.44 
uninsured persons 32.7 34.1 39.0 69.9 93.9 99.73 122.44 
Monthly allowance for taking care of the child 
insured persons (until 3 years of age) 38.5 43.3 39.7 55.0 54.8 58.5 48.32 
uninsured persons (until 1.5 years of age) 25.6 32.5 29.8 36.6 30.0 25.4 31.42 
Monthly allowance for taking care of 
the child aged of 1.5 (3) - 16 years 
4.9 4.3 7.8 7.0 5.9 5 - 
  
  
5 
tence minimum for children, and the social infrastructure will not be developed in the rural area, the phe-
nomenon of birth rate decrease might increase in the future. So far, even the provisions of the UE-RM Ac-
tion Plan have not been achieved, and the authorities are supposed to modify the calculation method of 
allowances for taking care of children, as well as to include or exclude (depending on the case) in/out the 
system certain population groups for rationalizing the payments done in this direction. 
 
Sourses: 
[1] EUROSTAT data for EU 27 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?
_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=REF_TB_populati
on&root=REF_TB_population/t_popula/t_pop/t_demo_gen/tps00112 
[2] MET, http://www.mec.md/Files/0/pnd%20partea%201.doc 
[3] International Organization for Migration, www.iom.md  
Policy Brief №5, April 2, 2009 
 
Association for Participatory Democracy ADEPT 
 
Address:  V. Alecsandri str. 97 
Chisinau, MD-2012,  
 Republic of Moldova 
 
Tel.: (+373 22) 21 29 92 
Fax:  (+373 22) 21 34 94 
E-mail: adept@e-democracy.md 
Web: www.e-democracy.md 
 
This Policy Brief  is published within the project “Moldova-EU 
Relations - Consolidate Public Information and Debate on Key Policy 
Developments”, implemented by Association for Participatory 
Democracy ADEPT with the financial assistance of the Soros-Moldova 
Foundation. 
ADEPT is an independent centre of analysis and consultation on the 
decision-making, political, electoral and socio-economic processes in 
the Republic of Moldova and in the wider region.  
ADEPT's mission is to promote the democratic values and support 
citizen active participation in public affairs.  
Strategic Objectives 
 
• Contribute to the efficient implementation of the governmental 
strategies aimed at the socio-economic development and democ-
ratization of Moldova; 
• Promote and consolidate the democratic institutions and proce-
dures; 
• Encourage and facilitate citizen participation in the decision-
making and governance processes.  
The author is solely responsible for statements and 
conclusions, which are not necessarily shared by the 
Soros-Moldova Foundation and ADPT. 
© ADEPT Association, 2009. 
All rights rezerved. 


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