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GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
identified. However, there is a more important matter at hand: Whether it is Karzai or Abdullah who 
wins, what is going to change? As a matter of fact, nothing... The main goal of the West is to give the 
old or the new leader legitimacy against the Taliban. Looking at the past, it is hard to say that the 
Afghan people are too sensitive about the “election legitimacy.” That the elections are happening under 
  Policy Brief 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
Elections in Afghanistan 
Yalım Eralp 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
Western statesmen care about the elections in 
Afghanistan. These elections are important, and 
there is a tendency to label them as “legitimate 
in the West” despite everything. An 
independent election committee, on the other 
hand, has already been void since there has been 
no security at the ballot boxes. There are also 
claims that there were extra ballots issued for 
women. Moreover, unlike male voters, ballots 
for female voters do not have photographs, 
which means women in burkas cannot be 
identified.However, there is a more important 
matter at hand: Whether it is Karzai or Abdullah 
who wins, what is going to change? As a matter 
of fact, nothing... The main goal of the West is to 
give the old or the new leader legitimacy against 
the Taliban. Looking at the past, it is hard to say 
that the Afghan people are too sensitive about 
the “election legitimacy.” That the elections are 
happening under the Taliban’s shadow is 
obvious. Additionally, the troubling possibility 
is the post-election violence. 
 
Abstract 
 
Elections are being held in Afghanistan. The result will not change Afghan political landscape. As Obama 
said, the war was not one of choice but of necessity. Yet the Western project of building a unified Afghan na-
tion and creating a modern state was a matter of choice. It has a very slim chance of succeeding. Today, it is 
better understood.  
 
The continuation of the war carries an enormous financial burden and important political risks. Afghanistan 
may turn into a Vietnam preventing much awaited reforms by President Obama at home. It may erode the 
credibility of the North Atlantic Alliance and may destabilize Pakistan much more.  
 
The West needs an exit strategy. Bringing into government “moderate Taliban”, implementing projects aimed 
at people as Turks have done in the past and continuing the fight against terrorism not with large forces but 
with high-tech military means can be such a strategy. 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
Following Al Qaeda’s terror attacks on the US in 
2001, no one objected to America’s and the 
West’s military action against Afghanistan; such 
a move was inevitable. However, with time the 
issue changed, and building a modern state in 
Afghanistan became one of its components. 
 
Changing Afghan Geopolitics 
 
In 2001 the US and the West weighed heavy in 
Afghanistan. In time, the geopolitical balance 
started to shift. Russia, which failed there in 1980 
is now acting cautiously and keeping a low  
profile. Even the pro-US Karzai is willing to buy 
arms from Russia. Iran is weighing in through 
the Shia population in Afghanistan. While the 
West speaks of human and womens rights, the 
Afghan government’s compromise to the Hazara 
was passing the law that permits the Afghan 
husband to deprive his wife of food or any 
financial means when she refuses to have sex 
with him. Shia students are the most important 
and consistent component in universities. 
Indeed, the Shias, who had been under a lot of 
pressure under Taliban, were initially happy 
with America’s intervention and democracy. 
However, the Shias have by now joined those 
who want the US out of Afghanistan. For Iran, 
the importance of getting rid of the US precedes 
even getting rid of the Taliban... 
 
China, with a full treasury and in need of raw 
materials, is the new secret player in 
Afghanistan... It sees radical Islam as a threat, 
and at the same time has the second largest 
copper reserves in the world, which it recently 
acquired the right to manage. Pakistan has also 
always been an important part of the Afghan 
geopolitics. It is hard to apprehend what kind of 
an actor Pakistan is on the Afghan political 
scene. While the Pakistani leadership is fighting 
against the Taliban alongside the US, some 
Pakistani factions, including the Pakistani secret 
service, as well as a considerable portion of the 
public support the Taliban. When the sub-
continent was partitioned, Pakistan defined its 
identity as a religion, and in time adapted its 
educational system to that. The results are 
clear... While India is the shining star, Pakistan’s 
future is murky. The reality is that the Afghan 
people and politicians have always been angry 
with Pakistan when it tried to interfere in the 
country’s domestic affairs. Thanks to religious 
influence, Saudi Arabia can also be effective in 
Afghanistan, despite not being a neighbor. 
 
When we consider Afghanistan’s neighbors, 
these are Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, 
China, Tajikistan and Iran. Iran, Pakistan and 
Tajikistan are the countries that have certain 
influence on Afghanistan. China, Turkmenistan 
and Uzbekistan worry about radical Islam 
unlike the other two. However, their influence 
on Afghanistan is weaker.  
Sayfa 2 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
It does not seem likely that a situation that might 
resolve the Afghan conflict will arise without 
Pakistan’s sincere and serious support. Pakistan 
is facing conflicting pressures in this area both 
domestically and internationally, and its public 
seems divided. A more serious “Pakistan 
question” arises while we are trying to solve the 
Afghan problem. 
 
The Reality of Afghanistan 
 
As a matter of fact, Afghanistan is a state 
comprised of various tribes and war lords. The 
Afghani people unite against foreign powers, 
but wholly reject a strong centralized 
adminisration. The UK in the past and Russia in 
1980s have learned the Afghan reality. 
Unfortunately, now the US and NATO are 
slowly comprehending this reality. 
 
Afghanistan does not seem likely to become a 
modern and Western sate. Where the tribal 
system, ignorance and poverty are the main 
elements, now terror is bein faught.  
 
Common interests and unity are hard to 
establish in Afghanistan where tribes and their 
leaders reign. The only point of unity is that 
these tribes should be left alone to do as they 
like. Such a state structure –if it can be called 
that- stagnates progress as well as allowing 
terrorist organizations like the Taliban and Al 
Qaedo to reign freely. Al Qaeda has adopted a 
global character in time. By now it has become 
much harder, if not impossible, to eliminate 
terror even with large military forces. 
 
Reconciliation with the Taliban 
 
The British Secretary of State for Foreign and 
Commonwealh Affairs David Miliband was the 
first to suggest the necessity of talking to the 
“moderate” Taliban, if that exists. This view 
increasingly gained support. In fact it is 
understood that there are some developments in 
this area. One of these is happening through 
Saudi Arabia. Another one is happening through 
the Afghan government and officials. It is even 
said the Afghan government is working on a 7-
step plan. Another name that came forward is 
Michael Sample, who is married to a Pakistani 
woman and is an ex UK and EU official. It is not 
clear what will come out of these meetings and 
contacts. However, it is understood there is no 
clear alternative at this stage. The goal is to 
include the moderate Taliban in the 
administration. It is further understood that 
there are ongoing meetings with the leader of 
Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin who had faught 
against the Soviets and served as president 
before the Taliban, Gulbuddin Hekmetyar. 
Hekmetyar’s forces are fighting against Western 
and Afghan forces in northeastern Afghanistan. 
This conflicting portrait is actually reflective of 
Afghanistan. Journalist Metin Toker, when he 
got angry at the course of events in Turkey, 
Sayfa 3 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
powers... At the basis of the rebellion is the 
Pashtun tribe, which has a leg in Pakistan.. 
 
The Vietnam Danger 
 
President Obama said the war in Afghanistan is  
an unwanted but necessary one. (In other words, 
one the US was forced to fight). The republican 
academic Richard Haass who shares a similar 
opinion on this, says “Yes, but now it is a war 
we have chosen to fight.” The casualties are 
increasing on the Western side, and especially 
the American public is withdrawing its support. 
Vietnam has been used as an example. The 
answer given to that “We had 500 thousand 
soldiers in Vietnam, and 68 thousand in 
Afghanistan” is not very convincing. Just like in 
Vietnam, the Afghan government is not 
modernized and extremely corrupt. The public’s 
support for the West has decreased significantly. 
In Vietnam, North Vietnam supported the 
Vietcong. Here, Pakistani elements support the 
Taliban. The cost of the Afghan war has 
exceeded 200 billion dollars. Looking at Iraq, not 
only are the Iraqi people more educated in 
comparison to the Afghans, but the country is 
richer in terms of the infrastructure and natural 
resources. In short, if the disputes between 
political and ethnic groups are eliminated, Iraq 
will prosper. Afghanistan, unfortunately, does 
not hold the same chances... 
 
 
Exit Strategy 
 
All these developments point to the necessity to 
come up with an “exit strategy” for the West. 
Perhaps the search for a compromise with the 
Taliban is part of this strategy. The US and 
 NATO are facing very difficult circumstances. It 
is now understood that it is extremely difficult to 
build a democratic, modern and united Afghan 
state. Afghanistan is also not a country that 
could be left to its own fate. Its geostrategic 
position is of utmost importance; it could upset 
the balance in Central Asia. What is called “state 
engineering” cannot be done there. While 
Turkey was liked and appreciated for years in 
Afghanistan, it never intended to alter the state’s 
structure and implemented useful projects for 
the public. Indeed, in November 1962, a Turkish 
Foreign Affairs report carrying a serious analysis 
of this was given to the Americans, who were 
warned that the Soviets might invade 
Afghanistan in the future. 
 
The West, while gradually replacing itself with 
local forces that it has trained, needs to 
implement projects that are geared more 
towards the people rather than the state. The 
terror component can of course not be ignored. 
Richard Haas proposes fighting terror with high 
technology intelligence and drones while 
avoiding large numbers of soldiers.  
 
If Afghanistan turns into a swamp, Obama –
Sayfa 4 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
especially given the financial crisis- cannot pass 
the necessary reforms domestically and this will 
have certain global consequences. In other 
words, if NATO fails, it will mean a serious loss 
in credit. Turkey, which has historally built good 
relations with Afghanistan, might lose this 
sympathy with time. Pakistan, which is 
increasingly finding it difficult to deal with the 
Afghan problem within itself, will become an 
additional problem – and in fact it already has... 
Former American Secretary of State Henry 
Kissinger once said to late İhsan Sabri 
Çağlayangil that “You might not be able to resolve 
every problem, but it is important to put the burden 
of the deadlock on the shoulders of your opponent.” 
The Afghan problem is highly reminiscent of 
this, but the party to take the burden is not clear. 
And now, while not a belligerent, Turkey too is 
preparing to send two battalions to Kabul and 
the region.  
Sayfa 5 
 Ambassador (R)Yalım Eralp 
Yalım Eralp is a member of the High Advisory Board at the Global Political Trends Center, a faculty 
member at the Department of International Relations of Istanbul Kultur University and a diplomatic 
commentator at CNN TÜRK. Yalım Eralp was born in 1939 in Istanbul. In 1958, he graduated from 
Forest Hills High School, New York City. In 1962, he graduated from the Faculty of Political 
Sciences, Ankara. Between 1962-1983, he served as a diplomat in New York, Greece, and in Rome 
NATO Defense College from where he graduated. Later on, he was appointed as Counselor at the 
Turkish Delegation within NATO, Brussels. He served in Washington D.C. as the Deputy Chief of 
Mission. Having served as the Spokesman of the Ministry for four years, he became Ambassador to 
India in 1987. Between 1991-1996, Ambassador Eralp served as Principal Advisor to Prime Ministers 
Mesut Yılmaz and Tansu Çiller and was also the Director of NATO Affairs at the Ministry. In 1996, 
he became Ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) 
Delegation in Vienna. In 2000, Ambassador Eralp retired from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 
 
About GPoT  
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) was established as a research unit uder the auspices of 
Istanbul Kultur University in 2008. 
 
GPoT Center aims to produce innovative and distinctive policy recommendations by analyzing the 
contemporary trends in regional and international politics. 
 
 
*The opinions and conclusion expressed herein are those of the individual author and does not necessarily reflect the views 
of GPoT or Istanbul Kultur University. 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
Sayfa 6 


Elections in Afghanistan

Karlsson, Ingmar

What is a nation?

Ask\u131n, Cevdet

 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
Some Recommendations Concerning the Role Played  
by the Kurdistan Regional Government  
in Solving the PKK/Kurdish Problem 
 
Cevdet Aşkın  
January 9, 2009 
  This Policy Brief emphasizes the necessity for Turkey to normalize its relations with the Regional 
Administration in Northern Iraq in order to “eliminate” PKK. Despite the numerous and intense 
military operations by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) towards domestic and/or cross-border 
targets, PKK still preserves its operational capacity. The study does not touch upon the other factors 
that necessitate the normalization of relations with the Regional Administration but it contends that 
the Regional Administration will play a critical role for the resolution of the problem.  
  Turkey’s most important problem is the 
Kurdish problem, and it coincides with the 
dissolution of the PKK. What is meant here 
by dissolution is the disarmament of the    
organization. Viewing the PKK as an        
outcome of the Kurdish problem, the author 
-while cautious to stay objective- formulates 
the role to be played by the Kurdistan       
Regional Government (KRG) in bringing the 
organization’s activities in northern Iraq to 
an end, and enumerates some                       
recommendations. The article consists of 
four sections; “Defining the Problem”, 
“Historical Evolution”, “The Situation       
Today”, and “Suggestions for a Resolution”. 
1 – Defining the Problem 
  For 25 years, the Republic of Turkey has 
been faced with the PKK and its violent 
politics. The armed organization, which   
initially emerged as a guerilla movement 
with limited caliber, has by now morphed 
into a political entity resting on a grassroots 
mass base that is spread across Turkey, 
European countries, the Commonwealth of 
Independent States, Iran, Syria, and    
Northern Iraq. Today the issue Turkey is 
faced with is the elimination of this          
organization, whose birth and evolution is 
a consequence of the denial of a Kurdish 
problem almost to this day, which itself is a 
 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
   Policy Brief 
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www.gpotcenter.org 
result of the main paradigm of Turkey’s 
“republic” system. Due to the “cause and 
effect” relationship between the Kurdish 
problem and the PKK, as well as to the     
present conditions, the disarmament process 
of the organization proves to be parallel to 
the solving of the Kurdish problem. 
 
2 – Historical Evolution 
  The 85-year young history of the Turkish 
Republic could be read as a history of civil 
war. The manner in which Kurdish             
uprisings were suppressed starting with the 
Sheikh Said rebellion in 1925, as well as the 
state’s almost retributive investment and   
administrative policies in the region during 
the periods of non-violence, combined with 
the denial of the Kurdish population’s       
existence prepared the base on which the 
PKK would flourish. The continuum of 
Kurdish uprisings began to exhibit an     
ideological, political and organizational 
unity with the attacks on the Eruh and    
Şemdinli provinces by the PKK after a long 
interval on August 15, 1984. 
  The PKK, which in early 1990s aimed to   
establish an independent state in the        
predominantly Kurdish regions of Eastern 
and Southeastern Anatolia, was forced to 
seek negotiations with the Turkish Republic 
especially after the dissolution of the Soviet 
Union, and to this end unilaterally declared 
ceasefire a number of times. Following the 
handing in of its founding leader Abdullah 
Öcalan to Turkey in 1999, the PKK moved 
all of its forces beyond Turkey’s borders on 
his orders. Modifying its military strategy 
and switching from armed struggle as a  
fundamental policy to a defensive position, 
the organization focused on the process of 
politicization. 
  Giving up the goal of independence as 
well, the PKK adopted the “Democratic con-
federacy” and “Democratic sovereignty” 
programs formulated by Öcalan in 2005. 
With this the aim was self-governance and 
realization of their ethnic identity by the 
Kurds within a structure of local                 
administrations, while maintaining the 
state’s unitary character. 
  After spending the period from 1999 to 
2005 in a unilateral ceasefire, the PKK 
switched back to armed struggle on the 
grounds that Ankara did not take any steps 
towards solving the Kurdish problem. 
  In order to eradicate the threat posed by 
the PKK, whose preferred tactic for        
eliminating security forces was to use        
remote-controlled mines, Turkey formed an 
international alliance in the fall of 2007 with 
the aim of ending the organization’s          
existence in Northern Iraq. Especially the 
United States (US), but also Iran, Iraq, Syria, 
and to a certain extent the European Union 
and the KRG in Northern Iraq lent their   
support. The meeting between Prime       
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US 
President George W. Bush on November 7th 
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2007 provided the critical point in this        
alliance. One of the outcomes of the meeting 
was that the US would provide Turkey with 
instant intelligence. Adding this advantage 
to their own means, the Turkish Armed 
Forces (TAF) carried out intense airborne 
operations against PKK targets in Northern 
Iraq beginning on December 16th 2007.      
Between 21st and 29th of February in 2008, a 
ground incursion took place in the Zap      
region, where PKK’s main base was located. 
Throughout the spring, summer and fall of 
that year, military pressure was kept on 
PKK targets both within and outside the 
country. 
  During this process and in coordination 
with the TAF, Iran kept shelling the Kandil 
region as well.  
  The KRG, on the other hand, kept its        
silence at the military operations in       
Northern Iraq with the exception of the 
ground incursion, while maintaining a “pro 
dialogue and peaceful resolution” attitude 
and not putting much pressure on the PKK. 
 
3 – The Situation Today 
  Despite the TAF’s intense operations on 
targets both within and outside the country, 
the PKK maintained its central structure, 
chain of command, and operational            
capacity. While the Turkish General Staff 
stated in its assessment of 2008 that      
Northern Iraq is no longer a safe haven for 
the PKK, the fact that the organization was 
able to hold its vitally important “10th     
Congress” for a full week in August showed 
that airborne operations and the power of 
intelligence have their limits. 
  Since it is impossible to independently    
verify the completely contradictory claims 
made by the TAF and the PKK regarding the 
damage caused to one another, it could be 
assumed that with new recruitments, the   
organization has maintained its usual    
numbers of militants, which is estimated to 
be 3-4 thousand. 
  While the year long military campaign 
proved Turkey’s political will in the conflict, 
its effect on the PKK, which, having faced an 
entity much powerful than itself came 
through this period virtually intact, was that 
of increased self-confidence. The high-up 
officers of the organizations were able to 
closely follow the developments in Turkey 
and give frequent interviews and situation 
analyses to their own media channels. 
  Having identified 2009 as the year to set 
Öcalan free and solve the Kurdish problem, 
the organization’s attention is now directed 
at İmralı. In other words, 10 years spent in 
İmralı’s conditions has not taken away from 
Öcalan’s authority over the organization. 
Through the statements that come out from 
his weekly meetings with his lawyers, he is 
at times able to set the agenda in Turkey and 
provide his followers with political            
perspective. Öcalan’s agreeable attitude is 
striking; by now he has made numerous   
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
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T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
offers in order to end the armed conflict and 
solve the Kurdish problem. 
  The organization thinks that unless it       
receives a heavy blow until local elections -
scheduled for March of 2009- are held, the 
process for the solution of the Kurdish    
problem will begin. Ankara, for its part, is 
continuing military pressure on the PKK on 
the one hand, while transferring prisoners to 
İmralı to relieve the tension that rose at the 
claim that Öcalan was mistreated there,     
establishing the Kurdish TRT 6 channel, and 
announcing the establishment of Kurdish 
Language and Literature departments in 
universities on the other, thereby employing 
the “carrots and sticks” strategy. 
 
4 – Suggestions for a Solution 
  While dubious in practical terms,             
considering that in theory the Kurdish prob-
lem will continue to exist even if the PKK’s 
military power is destroyed, it is vitally    
important to design a process that will result 
in the elimination of the organization. 
  In other words, a mediation effort that 
takes into account certain sensitivities is 
much needed between Ankara, which      
perceives steps towards the resolution of the 
problem while the PKK continues its       
military existence and attacks as 
“submission to terrorism” and the              
organization, which perceives giving up 
arms before the problem is solved as 
“surrendering.” 
  In present conditions, the KRG in Northern 
Iraq is the most suitable candidate to design 
and carry out this critical process to end the 
armed conflict. 
  That Öcalan has requested Jalal Talabani, 
the President of Iraq, to interfere for peace, is 
clear indication that the organization is 
ready for such mediation. 
  As for Ankara, allowing the KRG to         
become the “legitimate” authority to per-
form this function, it should: 
1. Refrain from pressuring Erbil to take a 
stance against PKK members in   
Northern Iraq 
2.      Suspend air and ground operations and 
bombardment in Northern Iraq 
3.      Elevate the relations with Northern 
Iraq to an “official” position by opening a 
consulate in Erbil and inviting Massoud   
Barzani to Ankara. 
   If these conditions are met, it will be      
possible for the KRG to materialize its plan 
towards disarmament while taking into    
account Turkey’s “state” and the PKK’s 
“organization” sensitivities. 
  The successful completion of this process 
will enable Turkey and the KRG to over-
come the mutual historic mistrust and for 
the parties to feel more powerful in an un-
stable Middle East. 
GLOBAL POLITICAL TRENDS CENTER 
Page 5 
 Istanbul Kultur University 
Atakoy Campus,Bakirkoy, 34156 Istanbul-TURKEY 
T: +90 212 498 44 76 | F: +90 212 498 44 05 
www.gpotcenter.org 
Ahmet Cevdet Aşkın was born in 1959. A graduate of İTÜ Mechanical Engineering 
Department, Aşkın started his profession as a journalist in 1994. He has worked in Foreign 
News sections of different newspapers. Since the establishment of Referans Newspaper, he 
has been employed as the desk editor and since October 2007, he is analyzing the recent 
developments with respect to PKK and the Kurdish question in his column Northern Iraq 
Diary. He speaks English, German, French and Spanish. Cevdet Aşkın is married and has 
one daughter. 
About GPoT  
 
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) was established as a research unit uder the auspices of 
Istanbul Kultur University in 2008. 
 
GPoT Center aims to produce innovative and distinctive policy recommendations by 
analyzing the contemporary trends in regional and international politics. 
 
 
*The opinions and conclusion expressed herein are those of the individual author and does not necessarily 
reflect the views of GPoT or Istanbul Kultur University. 


Some recommendations concerning the role played by the Kurdistan Regional Government in solving the PKK/Kurdish problem