NUI Maynooth Eprint Archive
Not a member yet
18159 research outputs found
Sort by
Examination of the new ICD-11 prolonged grief disorder guidelines across five international samples
No full text[Background] Prolonged grief disorder (PGD) is a new disorder included in the 11th edition of the International classification of diseases (ICD-11). An important remit of the new ICD-11 is the global applicability of the mental health disorder guidelines or definitions. Although previous definitions and descriptions of disordered grief have been assessed worldwide, this new definition has not yet been systematically validated. [Method] Here we assess the validity and applicability of core items of the ICD-11 PGD across five international samples of bereaved persons from Switzerland (N = 214), China (N = 325); Israel (N = 544), Portugal (N = 218) and Ireland (N = 830). [Results] The results confirm that variation in the diagnostic algorithm for PGD can greatly impact the rates of disorder within and between international samples. Different predictors of PGD severity may be related to sample differences. Finally, a threshold for diagnosis of clinically relevant PGD symptoms using a new scale, the International Prolonged Grief Disorder Scale (IPGDS), in three samples was confirmed. [Conclusions] Although this study was limited by lack of questionnaire data points across all five samples, the findings for the diagnostic threshold and algorithm iterations have implications for clinical use of the new ICD-11 PGD criteria worldwide
Using family planning service statistics to inform model-based estimates of modern contraceptive prevalence
No full textThe annual assessment of Family Planning (FP) indicators, such as the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), is a key component of monitoring and evaluating goals of global FP programs and initiatives. To that end, the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM) was developed with the aim of producing survey-informed estimates and projections of mCPR and other key FP indictors over time. With large-scale surveys being carried out on average every 3–5 years, data gaps since the most recent survey often exceed one year. As a result, survey-based estimates for the current year from FPEM are often based on projections that carry a larger uncertainty than data informed estimates. In order to bridge recent data gaps we consider the use of a measure, termed Estimated Modern Use (EMU), which has been derived from routinely collected family planning service statistics. However, EMU data come with known limitations, namely measurement errors which result in biases and additional variation with respect to survey-based estimates of mCPR. Here we present a data model for the incorporation of EMU data into FPEM, which accounts for these limitations. Based on known biases, we assume that only changes in EMU can inform FPEM estimates, while also taking inherent variation into account. The addition of this EMU data model to FPEM allows us to provide a secondary data source for informing and reducing uncertainty in current estimates of mCPR. We present model validations using a survey-only model as a baseline comparison and we illustrate the impact of including the EMU data model in FPEM. Results show that the inclusion of EMU data can change point-estimates of mCPR by up to 6.7 percentage points compared to using surveys only. Observed reductions in uncertainty were modest, with the width of uncertainty intervals being reduced by up to 2.7 percentage points
Fpemlocal: Estimating family planning indicators in R for a single population of interest
No full textThe global Family Planning Estimation model (FPEM) combines a
Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific time trends to yield
estimates of contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family
planning for countries worldwide. In this paper, we introduce the R
package fpemlocal that carries out the estimation of family planning
indicators for a single population, for example, for a single country or
smaller area. In this implementation of FPEM, all non-population-
specific parameters are fixed at outcomes obtained in a prior global
FPEM run. The development of this model was motivated by the
demand for computational efficiency, without loss of model accuracy,
when estimates and projections from FPEM were needed only for a
single country. We present use cases to produce estimates for a single
population of women by union status or all women based on package-
provided data bases and user-specified data. We also explain how to
aggregate estimates across multiple populations. The R package
forms the basis of the Track20 Family Planning Estimation Tool to
monitor trends in family planning indicators for the FP2020 initiative
Timing and amount of southern Cascadia earthquake subsidence over the past 1700 years at northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA
No full textStratigraphic, lithologic, foraminiferal,
and radiocarbon analyses indicate that at
least four abrupt mud-over-peat contacts are
recorded across three sites (Jacoby Creek,
McDaniel Creek, and Mad River Slough) in
northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA
(∼44.8°N, −124.2°W). The stratigraphy re-
cords subsidence during past megathrust
earthquakes at the southern Cascadia sub-
duction zone ∼40 km north of the Mendocino
Triple Junction. Maximum and minimum
radiocarbon ages on plant macrofossils from
above and below laterally extensive (>6 km)
contacts suggest regional synchroneity of
subsidence. The shallowest contact has ra-
diocarbon ages that are consistent with the
most recent great earthquake at Cascadia,
which occurred at 250 cal yr B.P. (1700 CE).
Using Bchron and OxCal software, we model
ages for the three older contacts of ca. 875
cal yr B.P., ca. 1120 cal yr B.P., and ca. 1620
cal yr B.P.
For each of the four earthquakes, we ana-
lyze foraminifera across representative mud-
over-peat contacts selected from McDaniel
Creek. Changes in fossil foraminiferal as-
semblages across all four contacts reveal sud-
den relative sea-level (RSL) rise (land subsid-
ence) with submergence lasting from decades
to centuries. To estimate subsidence during
each earthquake, we reconstructed RSL rise
across the contacts using the fossil foraminif-
eral assemblages in a Bayesian transfer func-
tion. The coseismic subsidence estimates are
0.85 ± 0.46 m for the 1700 CE earthquake,
0.42 ± 0.37 m for the ca. 875 cal yr B.P. earth-
quake, 0.79 ± 0.47 m for the ca. 1120 cal yr
B.P. earthquake, and ≥0.93 m for the ca. 1620
cal yr B.P. earthquake. The subsidence esti-
mate for the ca. 1620 cal yr B.P. earthquake
is a minimum because the pre-subsidence
paleoenvironment likely was above the upper
limit of foraminiferal habitation. The subsid-
ence estimate for the ca. 875 cal yr B.P. earth-
quake is less than (<50%) the subsidence es-
timates for other contacts and suggests that
subsidence magnitude varied over the past
four earthquake cycles in southern Cascadia
Safeguarding the IoT From Malware Epidemics: A Percolation Theory Approach
No full textThe upcoming Internet of Things (IoT) is foreseen to
encompass massive numbers of connected devices, smart objects,
and cyber–physical systems. Due to the large scale and massive deployment of devices, it is deemed infeasible to safeguard
100% of the devices with state-of-the-art security countermeasures. Hence, large-scale IoT has inevitable loopholes for network
intrusion and malware infiltration. Even worse, exploiting the
high density of devices and direct wireless connectivity, malware
infection can stealthily propagate through susceptible (i.e., unsecured) devices and form an epidemic outbreak without being
noticed to security administration. A malware outbreak enables
adversaries to compromise a large population of devices, which
can be exploited to launch versatile cyber and physical malicious attacks. In this context, we utilize spatial firewalls, to
safeguard the IoT from malware outbreak. In particular, spatial firewalls are computationally capable devices equipped with
state-of-the-art security and anti-malware programs that are spatially deployed across the network to filter the wireless traffic in
order to detect and thwart malware propagation. Using tools
from percolation theory, we prove that there exists a critical
density of spatial firewalls beyond which malware outbreak is
impossible. This, in turn, safeguards the IoT from malware epidemics regardless of the infection/treatment rates. To this end, a
tractable upper bound for the critical density of spatial firewalls
is obtained. Furthermore, we characterize the relative communications ranges of the spatial firewalls and IoT devices to ensure
secure network connectivity. The percentage of devices secured
by the firewalls is also characterized
Screening Hamstring Injury Risk Factors Multiple Times in a Season Does Not Improve the Identification of Future Injury Risk
No full textPurpose
To determine if eccentric knee flexor strength and biceps femoris long head (BFlh) fascicle length were associated with prospective hamstring strain injury (HSI) in professional Australian Football players, and if more frequent assessments of these variables altered the association with injury risk.
Methods
Across two competitive seasons, 311 Australian Football players (455 player seasons) had their eccentric knee flexor strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise and BFlh architecture assessed at the start and end of preseason and in the middle of the competitive season. Player age and injury history were also collected in preseason. Prospective HSIs were recorded by team medical staff.
Results
Seventy-four player seasons (16%) sustained an index HSI. Shorter BFlh fascicles (9%), when measured at multiple time points, was (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1–3.1). Prior HSI had the strongest univariable association with prospective HSI (RR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9–4.3). Multivariable logistic regression models identified a combination of prior HSI, BFlh architectural variables and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee flexor strength as optimal input variables; however, their predictive performance did not improve with increased measurement frequency (area under the curve, 0.681–0.726).
Conclusions
More frequent measures of eccentric knee flexor strength and BFlh architecture across a season did not improve the ability to identify which players would sustain an HSI
Clustering Longitudinal Life-Course Sequences using Mixtures of Exponential-Distance Models
No full textSequence analysis is an increasingly popular approach for analysing life courses represented by ordered collections of activities experienced by subjects over time. Here, we analyse a survey data set containing information on the career trajectories of a cohort of Northern Irish youths tracked between the ages of 16 and 22. We propose a novel, model-based clustering approach suited to the analysis of such data from a holistic perspective, with the aims of estimating the number of typical career trajectories, identifying the relevant features of these patterns, and assessing the extent to which such patterns are shaped by background characteristics. Several criteria exist for measuring pairwise dissimilarities among categorical sequences. Typically, dissimilarity matrices are employed as input to heuristic clustering algorithms. The family of methods we develop instead clusters sequences directly using mixtures of exponential-distance models. Basing the models on weighted variants of the Hamming distance metric permits closed-form expressions for parameter estimation. Simultaneously allowing the component membership probabilities to depend on fixed covariates and accommodating sampling weights in the clustering process yields new insights on the Northern Irish data. In particular, we find that school examination performance is the single most important predictor of cluster membership
Pollen Geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the Last 500 Years
No full textBuilding robust age–depth models to understand climatic and geologic histories from coastal sedimentary archives often requires composite chronologies consisting of multi-proxy age markers. Pollen chronohorizons derived from a known change in vegetation are important for age–
depth models, especially those with other sparse or imprecise age markers. However, the accuracy of
pollen chronohorizons compared to other age markers and the impact of pollen chronohorizons on the
precision of age–depth models, particularly in salt marsh environments, is poorly understood. Here,
we combine new and published pollen data from eight coastal wetlands (salt marshes and mangroves)
along the Atlantic Coast of the United States (U.S.) from Florida to Connecticut to define the age
and uncertainty of 17 pollen chronohorizons. We found that 13 out of 17 pollen chronohorizons
were consistent when compared to other age markers (radiocarbon, radionuclide 137Cs and pollution
markers). Inconsistencies were likely related to the hyperlocality of pollen chronohorizons, mixing of
salt marsh sediment, reworking of pollen from nearby tidal flats, misidentification of pollen signals,
and inaccuracies in or misinterpretation of other age markers. Additionally, in a total of 24 models,
including one or more pollen chronohorizons, increased precision (up to 41 years) or no change was
found in 18 models
Doing Women’s Film and Television History: Locating Women in Film and Television
No full textThe scholarship collected in this issue of Alphaville represents a selection of the research that was to be presented at the 2020 Doing Women’s Film & Television History conference, which was one of the many events cancelled as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic itself greatly impeded academic life and our capacity to carry out and share research among colleagues, students and the public. Covid-19 was even more problematic for women, who shouldered a disproportionate care burden throughout the pandemic. Therefore, we are particularly delighted to be able to present an issue that addresses a number of topics and themes related to the study of women in film and television, including, but not limited to, the production and use of archival collections for the study of women’s film and television histories; the foregrounding of women in Irish film and television histories; women’s productions and representation in films of the Middle East; representations of sex and sexuality in television drama; and women’s work and labour in film and television. The breadth of the themes covered here is indicative of the many ways in which scholars seek to produce, describe and uncover the histories and practices of women in these media. They suggest opportunities for drawing attention to women’s work, whether that is labouring in the film and television industries or the work that women’s images are put to do on screen. Collectively, the articles contained in this issue point to a multitude of opportunities for doing and producing women’s film and television histories, either as they occurred in the past or as they materialise in the present. They offer correctives to absences and marginalisation in production histories, in archiving or preservation, and in representation
We Charge Apartheid? Palestine and the International Criminal Court
No full textNoura Erakat & John Reynolds reflect on Palestinian efforts to engage the International Criminal Court, in the context of Israeli settler-colonialism and both its spectacular and structural violence. Conscious of the limits of international criminal law, they think about Palestinian activist legal tactics – and the charge of the crime of apartheid in particular – in relation to political strategy