John Carroll University

Stiles, Elizabeth

Schwab, Larry

English

METROPOLITAN-RURAL VOTING PATTERNS IN U.S. LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Front Matter

Gappert, Gary

The Journal of Economics and 
Politics 
Manuscript 1155 
CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF BREAK-AWAY NATIONALISM 
Gary Gappert 
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The Ohio Journal of Economics and Politics, Vol. 6, No. ~ 
CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF BREAK-AWAY NATIONALISM 
Gary Gappert 
Director, Institute for Futures Studies and Research 
The University of Akron 
It is timely to assess the future of Quebec nationalism in the light of the worldwide emer-
gence of resurgent, break-away nationalism since the globally significant events of 1989-90. 
The new global trends and conditions are establishing a different climate for urban devel-
opment and sub-regional nationalism. John Naisbitt has recently . assessed the future of 
cultural nationalism in Megatrends 2000. Marvin Cetron has sketched out a scenario of 
Quebec independence and Canadian unification with the United States some time in the 
21st century. 
In Quebec evolving circumstances have also created a campaign for a new referendum 
on sovereignty. This campaign will be a major preoccupation in Canadian and North 
American politics for the next several years. 
Trends and Conditions 
The development of a global marketplace is well accepted. What is less accepted is the 
development of what could be called a global "society". A dictionary defines society as 
"an association of organizations, both formal and informal". 
In preparing the book, Cities in a Global Societv, we compiled a list of "trends and con-
ditions" that operate on a global scale to impact upon urban development. These are 
presented in figure 1. Although these trends and conditions are primarily related to 
economic change and the spread of technology, they also have an important societal di-
mension. Howard Perlmutter (University of Pennsylvania) has gone further and has begun 
to articulate the concept of a global culture and a global civilization. 
Globalization is a multi-dimensional process that will have numerous manifestations as we 
approach the 21st century. 
Megatrends 2000 
John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene, updating the original Megatrends (1982), have iden-
tified ten new megatrends in Megatrends 2000 (1990). At least three of the new megatrends 
are related to globalization. These three are: 
- the booming global economy of the 1990s 
- global lifestyles and cultural nationalism 
- the rise of the Pacific Rim 
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Gappert: CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF BREAK-AWAY NATIONALISM
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Figure 1 
Global Realities: Trends and Conditions 
TRENDS RELATED TO THE NEW GLOBAL MARKETPLACE 
1. New satellite communications grid 
2. Creation and continuation of OPEC and petro dollars 
3. Post-affluent America and the decline of its economic domination 
4. The Reagan deficits and U.S. dependence upon foreign investment 
5. Global food franchising(fast foods, soft drinks, beer, etc.) 
6. The economics of global tourism 
7. Various accommodations to Third Would debt. 
8. New systems of foreign aid led by Japan, international institutions, etc. 
9. Multinational "sourcing" for automobiles and other mass production manu-
facturing 
10. Europe 1992, Hong Kong 1997, etc. 
CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTING 
TO AN EMERGING GLOBAL SOCIETY 
1. Global distribution of Third World middle-class professionals, merchants, and 
entrepreneurs 
2. Global media culture of television, music, cinema and magazines 
3. Terrorism and cooperative measures against it 
4. Drug traffic and culture and cooperative measures for and against it 
5. Global thinking in strategic planning 
6. The social dynamics of global tourism 
7. Global rescue responses to famine and other catastrophes 
8. Global medical and public health responses to AIDS, nuclear radiation, etc. 
9. Transnational responses to acid rain, ozone hole, greenhouse effect, etc. 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CITIES 
1. New assertions of regional identity and autonomy 
2. New outlets for exports of goods and services 
3. Repositioning in a new transnational system of cities 
4. New opportunities to receive foreign investment 
5. New civic and educational linkages and relationships 
6. High-speed rail linkages to international airports 
7. New tourism potential 
8. New psycho-social visions of urban life 
9. New occupations in a high tech, high touch, high tension global society. 
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Their analysis of the apparent paradox of a "new universal international lifestyle" and the 
resurgence of nationalism at the level of national sub-regions is incisive and significant. 
The outbreaks of cultural and linguistic nationalism include but are not limited to: 
- a "Speak Mandarin" campaign in Singapore 
- new Welsh language schools in Wales 
- the reinstatement of Catalan in Catalonia and its capital, Barcelona 
- the breakup of Yugoslavia 
- the autonomy movements in the Soviet Union 
In this context Quebec fits in with a powerful worldwide trend. As Naisbitt and Aburdene 
write: 
" . . . even as our lifestyles grow more similar, there are unmistakable signs 
of a powerful countertrend: A backlash against uniformity, a desire to assert the 
uniqueness of one's culture and language, a repudiation of foreign influence." (p. 
119). 
The indication is that as lifestyles become more homogeneous, people will cling tighter 
to deeper values expressed in religion, language, literature and art. The irony is that the 
so-called global lifestyle "walks a thin line between greater options and greater homoge-
nization, which decreases options." 
They also conclude that "the most important factor accelerating the development of a 
single global lifestyle is the proliferation of the English language". The vehicle for this 
proliferation is the growing American export of TV shows, music, films and other forms of 
entertainment including sports. 
In this context the Quebecois are no longer an anomaly. They have become a bellweather. 
The Cetron Hypothesis 
Another futurist, Marvin Cetron, has suggested that Canada may, "if not by the year 
2000, then soon thereafter, become the 52nd through the 55th state of the United States". 
Puerto Rico will have been the 5lst. 
Writing in American Renaissance (1989), Cetron analyzes the long- term impact of the 
1989 free-trade agreement. His iconoclastic conclusion is that "the other provinces may 
well secede first, leaving Quebec to fend for itself'. 
He writes: 
"Once the free-trade agreement with the United States takes full effect, the 
next logical step will be to accept politically what has already happened econom-
ically - the integration of Canada with the United States." (p. 223). 
In Cetron's political fantasy, he foresees two states being formed out of the Western 
provinces, two states out of the Eastern provinces and an independent but dependent 
Quebec. 
Cetron tends to be a more ebullient futurist than Naisbitt. The break-away nationalism of 
Quebec is a well established force in Quebec politics. Except for a few stirrings in Vancou-
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ver, there is no political movement in the other Canadian provinces that would propose 
union with the United States. And traditional Tory anti- Americanism in Ontario remains 
a powerful reality in Canada's most populous province. That residual British stubbornness 
in Ontario is obviously a force that Cetron has not yet experienced or encountered. 
The Naisbitt/Cetron prognostications provide a useful opportunity to assess some alter-
native scenarios for the future of Quebec in the decade ahead. 
Alternative Scenarios for Quebec 
In the pr~vince of Quebec, over 85 percent of the 6.5 million inhabitants are French-
speaking. In 1976 the Quebec separatist movement, represented by the Parti Quebecois, 
was elected to serve as the provincial government. In 1980 a referendum to separate from 
Canada was defeated by a vote of 60 percent to 40. The Liberal Party led by Robert 
Bourassa then returned to power. With the death of Rene Levesque, the Parti Quebecois 
has been reorganized by Jacques Parizeau. The party today is described as "young, urban, 
edu~ated, dedicated and middle-class". It represents a coalition of new political ideas and . 
identities. 
In ,the context of this paper, I do not wish to recap all the details of the recent failure of 
the Meech Lake accords, nor do I wish to elaborate on recent political history. Instead I 
want to identify and discuss several major structural dimensions that will be important to 
the future of Quebec and its place in Canada, North America and the world. 
These dimensions include: 
- the complexity of the quest for sovereignty-association 
- the issue of monetary union 
- the economic value of cultural distinctness 
- the role of major land bridges and gateways 
- the role of the Francophone nations 
' - Provincial Law 101 
First, the popular press has always over-simplified the nature of the separatist movement. 
The proposals for sovereignty-association involve a rather complex, two-stage process. The 
assertion of sovereignty through a popular vote would be followed by lengthy negotiations 
with the Federal Government of Canada. 
These negotiations would also address the nature of a new association with Canada or, if 
necessary, with the United States. Rene Levesque, in his Memoirs (1986), is quite eloquent 
about the efforts not to use the word "independence" in their early efforts to seek genuine 
equality with Anglophone Canada. To him Quebec had to become sovereign in order to 
escape from "the ceaseless see-saw of the Byzantine federal-provincial regime". (p. 223). 
Unfortunately, the more radical movement represented by the Front de Liberation du 
Quebec with their bombings, the kidnapping of British diplomat, James Cross, and the 
murder of Quebec cabinet minister, Pierre Laporte, dominated the media and obscured 
the more thoughtful consideration of Quebecois nationalism. A second issue related to 
association is the prevailing belief among the Quebecois leadership that monetary union 
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DOI: 10.59604/1046-2309.1155
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The Ohio Journal of Economics and Politics, Vol. 6, No. !! 
could either continue with Canada or be negotiated with the United States. 
Today more than ever the business community of Quebec believes that the cost of attaining 
independence would be small and the long-term economic impact would be positive. This 
message was recently discovered at a Johns Hopkins seminar by Pierre Fortin, head of 
the economic policy research center at the University of Montreal. He criticized Canadian 
federalism as a mess that threatens to "Argentinize" the Canadian economy through a 
large national debt, high interest rates, wasteful duplication of governmental services and 
a failure to invest in industrial training and research. 
A third dimension relates to the economic value of cultural distinctiveness. Both Montreal 
and the rest of Quebec have enormous tourism appeal because of their cultural and lin-
guistic differences. The cultural balance of payments with the rest of North America and 
the world is very positive. It can be said that the rest of the world recognizes the cultural 
sovereignty of Quebec. This is also another source of the self-confidence contributing to 
the new political support for some form of break- away nationalism. 
The fourth dimension is the unique land bridges and urban gateways represented by 
Seattle-Vancouver, Windsor-Detroit, Buffalo-Hamilton-Toronto and the two Sault Ste. 
Maries. At the level of the important city-regions, a form of free trade and free move-
ment of economic resources has existed for several decades. The free- trade agreement is 
not going to introduce a major exogenous shock to the existing settlement patterns except 
perhaps for Quebec manufacturers who are eager to expand their exports to more than 
border trade with the New England states. The Anglo provinces have already benefitted 
substantially from their land-bridge relationships to major urban markets in the U.S. 
The modest to substantial employment impact in Quebec from the free-trade agreement 
is likely to be part of a rising tide that helps float the boat of Quebec sovereignty. 
A fifth dimension that needs to be included in any assessment of the future of Quebec 
nationalism is the role that Montreal played in the association of the more than 45 or so 
Francophone countries around the world. Montreal is the "second city" after Paris of that 
peculiar association of nations that claim both the French language and French culture as 
part of their heritage. The particular pride of second place in the Francophone world has 
already created a unique global city role for Montreal. The Montreal-Quebecois identity 
is one that looks to Boston and Miami as sister cities, not to Toronto or Calgary. 
Finally, Provincial Bill 101 - the infamous language legislation - has now been fully im-
plemented in almost all of Montreal and the rest of the province. The English-speaking 
population of Quebec which is left have almost totally accepted the "real pulitik" of Que-
bec language policy. Anglo Quebec has become rather indifferent or at least ambivalent 
about the sovereignty issue this time around. 
These six structural dimensions will be significant in the arguing political analysis of break-
away nationalism in Canada in the case of Quebec. Whether with "status as a very special 
society" or with some form of sovereignty, the position of both Montreal as a global city 
and Quebec province as a very special "nation" seems assured as we approach the 21st 
century. 
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Gappert: CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF BREAK-AWAY NATIONALISM
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The Ohio Journal of Economics and Politics, Vol. 6, No. 2 
Bibliography 
1. Aubin, Benoct, "Parizeau's New Image", Gazette Montreal, April 13, 1991, page 135. 
2. Cetron, Marvin and Davies, Owen, American Renaissance, Our Life at the Turn of 
the 21st Century, St. Martin's Press, New York, 1989. 
3. Downey, Down, Rene Levesque, "The New Quebec's Most Eloquent Spokes- man", 
Globe and Mail, November 3, 1987, page Al2. 
4. Gappert, Gary and Knight, Richard V., Cities in a Global Society, Sage Publications, 
1990. 
5. Levesque, Rene, Memoirs, (translated by Philip Stratford), McClennand and Stewart 
Ltd., Toronto, 1986. 
6. Naisbitt, John and Aburdene, Patricia, MegaTrends 2000, Ten New Directions for 
the 1990s, William Morrow, New York, 1990. 
7. Perlmutter, Howard V., "On the Rocky Road to the First Global Civilization", Whar-
ton School, University of Pennsylvania, November 13, 1989. 
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DOI: 10.59604/1046-2309.1155


CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF BREAK-AWAY NATIONALISM

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