Vienna University of Economics and Business
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Shrinkage in the Time-Varying Parameter Model Framework Using the R Package shrinkTVP
Get PDFTime-varying parameter (TVP) models are widely used in time series analysis to flexibly deal with processes which gradually change over time. However, the risk of overfitting in TVP models is well known. This issue can be dealt with using appropriate global-local shrinkage priors, which pull time-varying parameters towards static ones. In this paper, we introduce the R package shrinkTVP (Knaus, Bitto-Nemling, Cadonna, and FrühwirthSchnatter 2021), which provides a fully Bayesian implementation of shrinkage priors for TVP models, taking advantage of recent developments in the literature, in particular those of Bitto and Frühwirth-Schnatter (2019) and Cadonna, Frühwirth-Schnatter, and Knaus (2020). The package shrinkTVP allows for posterior simulation of the parameters through an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. Moreover, summary and visualization methods, as well as the possibility of assessing predictive performance through log-predictive density scores, are provided. The computationally intensive tasks have been implemented in C++ and interfaced with R. The paper includes a brief overview of the models and shrinkage priors implemented in the package. Furthermore, core functionalities are illustrated, both with simulated and real data
The social dilemma of car sharing – The impact of power and the role of trust in community car sharing
Get PDFCar sharing represents a promising solution for sustainable transportation. Considering that there are already many cars that are not used to their full capacity, car sharing communities, whereby a group of people share access to a car, represent a sustainable alternative. However, sharing a car within a community results in the challenge of shared contributions and shared requests and thus, constitutes a social dilemma. From a social dilemma perspective, rational individualistic interests collide with collective interests of the sharing group: While each member would be better off contributing as little as possible and using the car as much as possible, it is in the collective interest of the group that each member pays a fair share and uses the resource fairly. This paper analyzes the problem of contributing to a shared car through the social dilemma framework and focuses on two potential factors that might influence drivers’ behavior: power (e.g., sanctions,expertise) and trust mechanisms (i.e., presenting badges) used by the car sharing community. This paper presents the results of two laboratory experiments. Study 1 (N¼183) reveals that power mechanisms, e.g., sanctions, affect the contribution to a shared car. Study 2 (N¼246) replicates the results of Study 1 and further shows that the presence of a trust mechanism (i.e., badge system) shapes the impact of power on contributions. The current research provides valuable insights for research on car sharing and the sharing economy in general and is particularly relevant for the constitution of sharing communities
Internationalization from Central and Eastern Europe: A systematic literature review
Get PDFEconomic transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has led to a dramatic increase in CEE firms' participation in international markets. This applies to different types of firms – from large emerging market multinationals to small international new ventures. In this paper, we systematically review the research on CEE outward internationalization, which we define as internationalization of CEE-based firms in the form of exporting or FDI, and contribute to literature by providing a complete picture of the state of the art and outlining potential avenues for future research. We find that while the CEE region has been described as a fruitful ground for developing new and testing existing theories, it heavily loads on the latter. We suggest that greater reliance on theories and concepts from the field of entrepreneurship and a stronger focus on internationalization decision processes might further enrich our understanding of internationalization from CEE
Disease momentum: Estimating the reproduction number inthe presence of superspreading
Get PDFA primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number ofnew infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There has been increasing literature suggesting that superspreading, the significant variability in number of new infections caused by individuals, plays an important role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In this paper, we consider the effect that such superspreading has on the estimation of the reproduction number and subsequent estimates of future cases. Accordingly, we employ a simpleextension to models currently used in the literature to estimate the reproduction number and present a case-study of the progression of COVID-19 in Austria. Our models demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty of the reproduction number increases with superspreading and that this improves the performance of prediction intervals. Of independent interest is the derivation of a transparent formula that connects the extent of superspreading to the width of credible intervals for the reproduction number. This serves as a valuable heuristic for understanding the uncertainty surrounding diseases with superspreading
The Future of Tax Audits? The Acceptance of Online-Based, Automated Tax Audits and their Effects on Trust and Power
Get PDFIn this paper, we investigate the acceptance by taxpayers and tax auditors of voluntary e-audits, i.e., online-based, automated tax audits. Further, we analyze the effects of e-audits on trust in and power of tax authorities. Perceived benefits and shortcomings of e-audits for taxpayers and tax auditors may depend on the specific features of e-audits, which may not only affect adoption and endorsement but also influence the trust-power balance between taxpayers and tax authorities, ultimately affecting tax compliance. In an experimental survey among taxpayers and tax auditors, we focus on four specific features: data privacy, audit certainty, transparency, and independence from tax intermediaries. Results from multilevel models suggest that taxpayers’ acceptance indeed depends on these features, particularly on audit certainty, i.e., that an e-audit cannot be followed by a subsequent conventional tax audit of the same period. While these features appear to increase acceptance and trust by taxpayers, the same features cause concerns of tax auditors, who react with less support for e-audits and a perceived loss in power. These results indicate a mismatch between taxpayers’ and tax auditors’ perceptions about e-audits and tax compliance. Our study is among the first to investigate the effects of digitalization in tax administration and to include tax auditors’ views. Results are relevant to policymakers who wish to promote digitalization to foster tax compliance. Specifically, our study suggests that tax authorities should incorporate safeguards into e-audits and educate about the importance of a trusting relationship between taxpayers and tax auditors.Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Serie
Cluster Optimized Proximity Scaling
Get PDFProximity scaling methods such as Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) represent objects in a low dimensional configuration so that fitted object distances optimally approximate object proximities. Besides finding the optimal configuration, an additional goal may be to make statements about the cluster arrangement of objects. This fails if the configuration lacks appreciable clusteredness. We present Cluster Optimized Proximity Scaling (COPS), which attempts to find a configuration that exhibits clusteredness. In COPS, a flexible parametrized scaling loss function that may emphasize differentiation information in the proximities is augmented with an index (OPTICS Cordillera) that penalizes lack of clusteredness of the configuration. We present two variants of this, one for finding a configuration directly and one for hyperparameter selection for parametric stresses. We apply both to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data set on neural representations of mental states in a social cognition task and show that COPS improves clusteredness of the configuration, enabling visual identification of clusters of mental states. Online supplementary material is available including an R package and a document with additional details
Drivers of plate waste at buffets: A comprehensive conceptual model based on observational data and staff insights
Get PDFThe harmful tourist behaviour of taking a lot of food from a buffet, but not eating it all, remains under-researched. This study gains key insights into drivers of plate waste. Observational data show that: dinner buffets are worse than break-fast buffets; the latest breakfast serving time is worse than the earliest; high-end breakfast buffets are worse than budget buffets. The first meal a guest eats at a hotel and the presence of children also lead to more plate waste. Staff offer consistent and plausible explanations for these observations, resulting in a comprehensive model of drivers of plate waste. This model offers a basis for intervention development to reduce plate waste and by so doing minimise environ-mental damage caused by the tourism industry
What’s important when caring for a loved one? Population-based preference weights for the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for informal carers (ASCOT-Carer) for Austria
Get PDFPurpose: The Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for informal carers (ASCOT-Carer) can be used to assess long-term care-related quality of life (LTC-QoL) of adult informal carers of persons using LTC services. The ASCOT-Carer instrument has been translated into several languages, but preference weights reflecting the relative importance of different outcome states are only available for England so far. In this paper, we estimated preference weights for the German version of the ASCOT-Carer for Austria and investigated the value people place on different QoL-outcome states.
Methods: We used data from a best–worst scaling (BWS) experiment and estimated a scale-adjusted multinomial logit (S-MNL) model to elicit preference weights for the ASCOT-Carer domain-levels. Data were collected using an online survey of the Austrian general population (n = 1001).
Results: Top levels in the domains of ‘Space and time to be yourself’, ‘Occupation’ and ‘Control over daily life’ were perceived as providing the highest utility, and states with high needs in the same domains seen as particularly undesirable. ‘Personal safety’ was the only domain where levels were roughly equidistant. In all other domains, the difference between the top two levels (‘ideal state’ and ‘no needs’) was very small.
Conclusion: The paper provides preference weights for the German version of ASCOT-Carer to be used in Austrian populations. Furthermore, the results give insight into which LTC-QoL-outcomes are seen as particularly (un)desirable, and may therefore help to better tailor services directed at informal carers and the persons they care for
Social care‐related outcomes in Finland. Construct validity and structural characteristics of the Finnish ASCOT measure with older home care users.
Get PDFThe Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit four response‐level interview schedule (ASCOT INT4) for service users was translated into Finnish. The aim of this paper was to investigate the construct validity and structural characteristics of the Finnish ASCOT. We used data from a face‐to‐face interview survey of older people receiving publicly funded home care services, which was conducted in 2016–2017 (n = 493), excluding missing values and proxy respondents (n = 334). Chi‐square tests, adjusted residuals and analyses of variance were used to examine hypothesised associations between each attribute and a number of relevant variables regarding health and well‐being, disabilities, living arrangements, social contact and support, experience of service use, and the nature of the locality and environment. Structural characteristics were explored using exploratory factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha test. The EQ‐5D‐3L and ASCOT were moderately correlated (r = 0.429; p < 0.001). The ASCOT attributes were statistically positively related to the overall quality of life. For other tested variables, we found a high number of significant associations with the control over daily life, occupation, social participation, and personal cleanliness attributes, but fewer significant associations with the other attributes. Cronbach's alpha was 0.697 and a single factor was extracted. This assessment provides evidence to support the construct validity of the Finnish ASCOT. The results support the introduction of the Finnish ASCOT into Finland for use in practical applications. Future research on its reliability would be useful