Vienna University of Economics and Business
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A hybrid demand forecasting model for greater forecasting accuracy: the case of the pharmaceutical industry
Full text linkIn the era of modern technology, the competitive paradigm among organisations is changing at an unprecedented rate. New success measures are applied to the organisation’s supply chain performance to outperform the competition. However, this lead can only be obtained and sustained if the organisation has an effective and efficient supply chain and an appropriate forecasting technique. Thus, this study presents the demand-forecasting model, i.e., a good fit for the pharmaceutical sector, and shows promising results. Through this study, it is observed that combining forecasting algorithms can result in greater forecasting accuracies. Therefore, a combined forecasting technique ARIMA-HW hybrid1 i.e. (ARHOW) combines the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt’ s-Winter model. The empirical findings confirm that ARHOW performs better than widely used forecasting techniques ARIMA, Holts Winter, ETS and Theta. The results of the study indicate that pharmaceutical companies can adopt this model for improved demand forecasting
Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
No full textMy thesis consists of three chapters that study the effects of capital structure decisions on asset prices. While most insights covered in this thesis are empirical, they are nonetheless founded in the theory of financial economics, and in the final chapter, a model is used to explain an observed phenomenon. The first chapter, titled "Covenant Prices in the US Corporate Bond Market", is a joint project with Lukas Handler and Rainer Jankowitsch. This paper provides a novel approach to empirically determine prices of bond covenants based on transaction data for the US corporate bond market. Thereby, we are the first to measure price effects over the whole lifetime of bond contracts. We find that covenant prices vary significantly over time and are associated with changes in market-wide credit risk, volatility, and macroeconomic variables. Apart from these time-series dynamics, there is also significant variation across bond and firm characteristics. In particular, covenant prices increase with interest rate, credit, and liquidity risk and are higher for firms that have more growth options, more tangible assets, and are smaller. Furthermore, we document a positive correlation between the prices of covenants and their subsequent inclusion rates. In the second chapter, "Dividend Signalling Effects in Corporate Bonds under Asymmetric Information", I empirically investigates the signalling content of dividend changes by studying US corporate bonds' price reactions. A key innovation of this study is the consideration of asymmetric information. Firms with higher degrees of asymmetric information experience positive bond returns following dividend increases, whereas more transparent firms show adverse reactions. On the other hand, bonds generally depreciate across the asymmetric information spectrum when firms announce dividend decreases. Yet these price drops are larger for firms with more information asymmetry. Overall, the results document dividends as a signal about firm fundamentals and the importance of information frictions for the signalling hypothesis. Finally, the third chapter, titled "The Maturity Premium", is a joint project with Maria Chaderina and Josef Zechner. We show that firms with longer debt maturities earn risk premia not explained by unconditional factors. Embedding dynamic capital structure choices in an asset pricing framework where the market price of risk evolves with the business cycle, we find that firms with long-term debt exhibit more countercyclical leverage. The induced covariance between betas and the market price of risk generates a maturity premium similar in size to our empirical estimate of 0.21% per month. We also provide direct evidence for the model mechanism and confirm that the maturity premium is consistent with observed leverage dynamics of long- and short-maturity firms.Security: campu
Psychosoziale Gesundheit und gesellschaftliche Teilhabe in Österreich: Zur Prävalenz von Angststörungen und Depressionen unter syrischen, irakischen und afghanischen Geflüchteten
Full text linkFlucht und Asyl haben lange die öffentlichen Debatten in Europa bestimmt. In vielen Ländern haben rechtspopulistische Parteien an Bedeutung gewonnen. Eine Einigung darüber, wie die Europäische Union ihre Verantwortung gegenüber den weltweiten Fluchtbewegungen wahrnehmen kann, scheint in weiter Ferne. Der vorliegende Band trägt zu einer Ausdifferenzierung dieser Debatten bei. Einerseits regt er dazu an, Flucht und Asyl aus einer internationalen und historischen Perspektive sowie aus dem Blickwinkel der Betroffenen neu zu denken. Andererseits präsentiert er empirische Ergebnisse zur politischen und zivilgesellschaftlichen Auseinandersetzung mit Geflüchteten, zu ihrer Integration in den Arbeitsmarkt sowie zu den Möglichkeiten und Grenzen ihrer gesellschaftlichen und kulturellen Teilhabe
Nicht aller Tage Abend: Tagesarbeitszeiten für Reinigungskräfte ermöglichen
Full text linkDie Reinigung am Arbeitsplatz erfolgt oft ungesehen. Kennen Sie denn die Person, die Ihr Büro sauber macht? Wenn nicht, dann kann das an den typischen Arbeitszeiten in der Büroreinigung liegen: Reinigungskräfte arbeiten oftmals, bevor die Beschäftigten des KundInnen-Unternehmens kommen bzw. nachdem diese gegangen sind. Das hat für das Leben der Reinigungskräfte weitreichende Folgen: unattraktive und häufig zerrissene Arbeitszeiten, die gesundheitlich belastend und nur schlecht mit dem Familien- und Privatleben vereinbar sind. Ein Umstieg auf Tagreinigung könnte die Arbeits- und Lebensqualität von ReinigerInnen erheblich verbessern – und auch für die KundInnen- und Reinigungsunternehmen einige Vorteile bringen. Um einen solchen Wandel zu verwirklichen, sind unter anderem die KundInnen-Unternehmen und deren Beschäftigte gefordert
Smart Contracts for Sustainable Supply Chain Management: Conceptual Frameworks for Supply Chain Maturity Evaluation and Smart Contract Sustainability Assessment
Full text linkCurrent research on smart contracts focuses on technical, conceptual, and legal aspects but neglects organizational requirements and sustainability impacts. We consider this a significant research gap and explore the relationship between smart contracts and sustainability in supply chains. First, we define the concept of smart contracts in terms of supply chain management. Then, we conduct a content analysis of the literature to explore the overlapping research fields of smart contracts and sustainability in supply chains. Next, we develop a semi-structured assessment framework to model the potential environmental and social impacts induced by smart contracts on supply chains. We propose a conceptual framework for supply chain maturity by mapping the relationships between organizational development, sustainability, and technology. We identify smart contracts as a foundational technology that enables efficient and transparent governance and collaborative self-coordination of human and non-human actors. Thus, we argue that smart contracts can contribute to the economic and social development of networked value chains and Society 5.0. To stimulate interdisciplinary research on smart contracts, we conclude the article by formulating research propositions and trade-offs for smart contracts in the context of technology development, business process and supply chain management, and sustainability
Avoiding digitalization traps: Tools for top managers
No full textDigital transformation is fundamentally changing the business landscape. It is also affecting the roles of top managers within firms. Our survey of more than 160 senior managers in Europe suggests that digitalization, rather than encouraging more decentralized forms of management, will lead to an expanded role for headquarters and further empowerment of top managers. While acknowledging the benefits of the digital transformation, in this Executive Digest we identify five key challenges for newly empowered top managers and offer solutions for these digitalization traps.Security: staffonl
The Impact of Social Norms on Pro-Environmental Behavior: A Systematic Literature Review of The Role of Culture and Self-Construal
Full text linkThis paper documents state-of-the-art research on the impact of social norms on pro-environmental consumer behavior. Our aim was to identify possible research gaps, in particular in terms of the moderating role of culture and self-construal, and to suggest potentially fruitful research avenues. To achieve these objectives, we conducted a systematic review of the literature on the impact of social norms on sustainability over the past 20 years, placing emphasis on the role of culture and self-construal. Altogether, we collected over 16,000 papers via Web of Science and subsequently used NVivo 12 for a fine-grained qualitative analysis. Our findings provide several new insights. First, we identified the most popular research areas, top journals and leading authors in the field of social norms and pro-environmental sustainability. Second, we pinpointed the most popular research topics in the context of the norm–sustainability relationship. Third, we revealed how culture and self-construal have been addressed when researching the connection between social norms and pro-environmental behavior, identified managerial implications, and offered future research directions on the moderating effects of culture and self-construal
New directions for RIS studies and policies in the face of grand societal challenges
Full text linkThe regional innovation system (RIS) approach has become a widely used framework for examining the dynamics of innovation across space as well as for crafting policies aimed at promoting the innovation capacity of regions. The dominant focus of RIS studies and regional innovation policies has been on technological innovation that drives competitiveness and economic growth. In light of persistent environmental and social challenges such as climate change, health problems, and growing inequalities, this narrow understanding of innovation appears to be obsolete. This article claims that the RIS approach requires critical rethinking and reassessment to provide a solid basis for informing the next generation of regional innovation policies. We explore how RIS scholarship and policies could benefit from engaging more deeply with an alternative understanding of innovation. Inspired by recent work on responsible innovation, mission-oriented and transformative innovation policies, we
develop the notion of ‘challenge-oriented RIS’ (CORIS). In contrast to conventional understandings of RIS, this approach embraces a broader and more critical understanding of innovation, captures the directionality of change, opens up to new innovation actors and novel coordination mechanisms between various stakeholders and territorial scales, and pays more attention to the application side and upscaling of innovation within the region and beyond.
Acknowledging that regions vary in their capacity to fashion transformative change and challenge-oriented innovation, the paper outlines new directions for place-based innovation
policies
Container freight rate forecasting with improved accuracy by integrating soft facts from practitioners
Full text linkThis study presents a novel approach to forecast freight rates in container shipping by integrating soft facts in the form of measures originating from surveys among practitioners asked about their sentiment, confidence or perception about present and future market development. As a base case, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used and compared the results with multivariate modelling frameworks that could integrate exogenous variables, that is, ARIMAX and Vector Autoregressive (VAR). We find that incorporating the Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) provided by Transport Intelligence into the ARIMAX model improves forecast performance greatly. Hence, a sampling of sentiments, perceptions and/or confidence from a panel of practitioners active in the maritime shipping market contributes to an improved predictive power, even when compared to models that integrate hard facts in the sense of factual data collected by official statistical sources. While investigating the Far East to Northern Europe trade route only, we believe that the proposed approach of integrating such judgements by practitioners can improve forecast performance for other trade routes and shipping markets, too, and probably allows detection of market changes and/or economic development notably earlier than factual data available at that time
The size–growth relationship in the social services sector in Austria
Full text linkThe social services sector is among the fastest-growing industries, but it has gained
little attention in the debate regarding frm growth. This article analyzes frm growth
in relation to frm size using payroll expenses as our indicator for both frm growth
and frm size. We apply structural equation modeling and full maximum likelihood
estimation using Austrian data comprising all non-proft social service providers.
After 2013, fewer frms have been entering and more have been exiting the sector;
however, we fnd that growing in size is still not associated with higher growth rates.
Our study emphasizes the role of small organizations in remaining a growth sector