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Trade Diversion in the US Market during the US–China Trade War: Firm-level Evidence from Thailand
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000971_001The US–China trade war, which began in the latter half of the 2010s, has led to increased exports from third countries to the US. This paper presents a firm-level analysis of such an increase in Thailand, one of the countries that has benefited from this trade diversion. Specifically, we empirically examine changes in the export rankings of Thai firms exporting to the US. Our dataset includes the top 1,500 Thai exporters to the US for the years 2015, 2016, 2021, 2022, and 2023. By linking US tariffs on Chinese goods to exporters at the four-digit industry level, we assess the impact of these tariffs on firms’ export rankings. We also incorporate data on firm-level imports from China and firm nationality. We find that, on average, US tariffs are not significantly associated with the export rankings of Thai firms. However, major importers from China in Thailand benefit from trade diversion in the US market. Furthermore, firms in Thailand with investment from China, Singapore, the US, and Europe have increased their exports to the US following the onset of the trade war, indicating that these firms have capitalized on the shift in trade dynamics.technical repor
Sharing Governance Costs with Society: Case Studies in Zhejiang
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000960_001This article explores the "reverse soft budget constraint" in Zhejiang, China, where local governments shift their financial burdens to enterprises and communities to exceed fiscal limits. Six case studies examine cost transfer mechanisms among rural, urban, and non-urbanized communities. The analysis emphasizes the negotiation dynamics between local governments and communities, indicating that rural communities with independent revenue sources are more susceptible to cost transfers. In contrast, urban communities rely entirely on government funding, which restricts their autonomy. The study contrasts cost transfer characteristics in coastal regions with higher economic development vis-a-vis those in inland regions.technical repor
