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China’s New Growth Strategy: Implications for Middle-Income Economies
Get PDFapplication/pdfIDP000940_001Acquiring human capital and climbing the manufacturing ladder are development policy goals shared by most middle-income countries. What happens when a large economy with active industrial policy expands into sectoral niches occupied by middle-income trade partners? We build a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model and perform counterfactual experiments assessing the effects of China’s human capital investments and industrial policies on trade, production, and factor returns elsewhere in the developing world. The model features skilled and unskilled labor as primary inputs as well as trade in intermediate goods. Simulation results suggest that China’s growth strategy may cause middle-income economies to lose global export shares in more skill-intensive sectors and to be pushed toward blue-collar and resource-based exports. The effects are especially notable in Southeast Asia. Skill premia fall, reducing incentives to invest in human capital. In the absence of policy responses, these trends might dim long-run development prospects.technical repor
ミレイ政権による社会政策の転換(論稿)
Get PDFアルゼンチンでは2023年12月にペロン党系左派フェルナンデス政権から右派の自由・前進のミレイ政権に移行した。これに伴い、労働・社会保障を含む社会政策が大きく変容しつつある。それは同時に、政府と社会政策の恩恵を受けてきた労働組合や社会組織の関係にも変容をもたらした。フェルナンデス政権以前の左派政権では、インフォーマルセクターへの社会扶助が拡大し、インフォーマルセクターの組織化も進んだ。ミレイ政権では、社会政策にも市場原理を導入し、従来の労働組合や社会組織との関係の見直しを進めている。PJa/33/Ra2articl
Are spatial differentiation and product differentiation substitutes?
Get PDFapplication/pdfIDP000943_001We revisit the Hotelling model in the case of firms selling differentiated varieties. When product differentiation outweighs travel costs, the location-then-price game has a unique subgame perfect Nash quilibrium in which the two firms located at the market center.technical repor
From Walking to Driving: Economic Impact of Mountain Roads
Get PDFapplication/pdfIDP000949_001This paper evaluates the impact of Sindhuli Road on new business establishments in Nepal—new paved roads built on previously mountain trails with elevations between 200 and 1500 meters and traversing 160 kilometers. I use a unique Nepalese dataset that surveys all nonfarm establishments in the formal and informal sectors. To reduce selection bias, I adopt the propensity-score weighted regression method combined with the covariate-balancing propensity-score estimator. The results show that opening the road increased the number of new firms in local treatment wards by 108%, employment by 132%, and sales by 232%. The impacts were heterogeneous across construction sections, industries, and genders. To infer transportation cost savings in a modal shift from porter to vehicle, I surveyed porter transport prices along mountain trekking routes and show a striking difference in transport prices between porter and vehicle.technical repor
