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Economic Reform in Sudan: Rationale for the Implementation of the IMF Programme by the Hamdok Government and Its Impacts on the Democratic Transition Process
No full textPJa/3/Af4application/pdfZAF202400_102スーダンでは2019年のバシール政権崩壊後、軍民間のパワーシェアリングをめぐる合意が成立し、ハムドゥーク首相率いる民政移管政権が発足した。本稿は、同政権が国際通貨基金（IMF）監督下の経済改革を実施した要因、及び経済改革が2021年のクーデターや2023年の内戦に与えた影響を分析した。政権幹部らへのインタビュー調査等から、同政権が欧米ドナー国からの圧力を受けつつも、経済改革を民政移管の道程と捉え、自ら積極的に推進したことが明らかになった。また、経済改革が物価の高騰や文民勢力内の対立等、政治経済の混乱を招いたほか、経済改革の進展が軍勢力やバシール政権関係者の利権剥奪につながるとの懸念を招き、軍勢力がクーデターを実行する一因になった可能性が高いことも明らかになった。これらの分析から、経済改革が国内政治と相互に連関しており、政治的、経済的に脆弱な国家において関連アクターへの影響を考慮せず実施された場合、国内政治のさらなる不安定化を招き得ることが明らかになった。journal articl
Essays in Finance and Macroeconomics
No full textThis dissertation presents three chapters that examine subjects at the intersection of finance and macroeconomics.
The first chapter examines households’ credit card borrowing behavior and develops a heterogeneous-agent model that predicts macro-financial dynamics in the US credit card market. The model incorporates presented-biased time preferences, which lead households to persistently revolve high-interest credit card debt. Despite not being credit-constrained, these households exhibit elevated consumption responses to liquidity shocks due to indebted saving behavior. Thus, the model aligns well with empirical evidence on both unsecured borrowing patterns and consumption responses to liquidity shocks. Furthermore, policy analyses using this enhanced model illustrate that prevalent and persistent credit card borrowing reshapes households’ responses to fiscal and monetary policy.
The second chapter analyzes the debt forbearance policy in the US mortgage market and examines its impact on household liquidity and labor market stability during economic downturns. By leveraging intermediation frictions in forbearance induced by mortgage servicers, empirical analyses show that mortgage debt forbearance played a significant role in boosting local demand and led to a faster recovery of employment in the local labor market. In a model incorporating geographical heterogeneity in intermediation frictions, the labor market estimates imply household-level spending responses to increased liquidity that align well with existing estimates for direct fiscal transfers. The implied debt-financed fiscal multiplier effects are sizable but depend on the repayment terms of deferred payments and the monetary policy stance.
The third chapter studies the impact of financial windfalls on household portfolio choices and risk exposure. By leveraging the randomized assignment of lottery prizes in three Swedish lotteries, empirical analyses show that a windfall gain leads to a decline in the risky share of household portfolios. Theoretical analyses explore how the financial wealth elasticity of the risky share helps distinguish between competing models of risk preferences. Furthermore, a calibrated dynamic portfolio choice model incorporating nontradable human capital and consumption habits predicts responses that are both qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the empirical estimates
Pick Me: Reducing Wastefulness in the Random Serial Dictatorship Mechanism
No full textThis thesis investigates algorithmic improvements to the Random Serial Dictatorship (RSD) Mechanism for allocating indivisible goods, focusing on reducing wastefulness in outcomes when truncated preference reports are allowed. It corroborates Erdil's (2014) refutation of the RSD uniqueness conjecture and answers his open question, seeking to identify the frontier of strategyproof improvements. A linear program is devised to minimize wastefulness while enforcing other desirable properties of RSD, such as ex-post efficiency, equal treatment of equals, and strategyproofness. Through this approach, I identify efficient, fair, and incentive-compatible improvements in both the 4-agent, 3-item and 4-agent, 4-item scenarios, uncovering numerous potential profiles for improvements. The proposed approach, based on solving linear programs, poses several scalability challenges. To address this, I exploit symmetry and make use of constraint generation techniques, resulting in empirical improvements
Treasures from the Treasure Ships: Religious Ivory Carvings and the Archaeology of their Journey Through the Manila Galleon Trade (1565-1815)
No full textThis thesis is an archaeological study of the religious ivory carving trade goods that were popular in the Manila galleon trade route (Nao de China) from 1565 to 1815. This trade system covered over 15,000 miles of exotic goods transportation throughout Southeast Asia across the Pacific Ocean to Acapulco and onwards across the Atlantic to Spain during this era. A post-processual methodology and object biography approach is used to demonstrate how these religious ivory carvings have visibly transformed throughout their life-history within this trade route. I use primary historical sources, primary and secondary archaeological sources, as well as religious ivory carving artifacts to map out the archaeological history of these ivory carvings from the collection of raw ivory in Africa and Asia, through multi-stage production processes along the trade route, and “final” sale in Spain. In following the path of these religious ivory carvings from beginning to end this thesis also brings forth arguments as to why the standard Hispano-Filipino and Indo-Portugués categorization of religious ivory carvings is inaccurate and detrimental to our understanding of these ivory treasures and the cultural interactions that were essential to ivory production and the Manila galleon trade. This thesis offers valuable archaeological and historical insight into a prized commodity that still circulates the global market today, as well as providing insight into an area of history that is still under-studied
Essays in Labor Economics
No full textI study systems that are crucial to understanding and alleviating racial inequality in the United States. The projects contained in this dissertation examine federal oversight and policing. In my first two chapters, I focus on the criminal justice system, specifically policing. In Chapter 1, I examine how federal oversight affects policing and public safety through a case study of the Seattle Police Department. In Chapter 2, I evaluate whether police officers use adjectives and adverbs that systematically differ by suspect race (race-predictive language) and whether race-predictive language use correlates with officer characteristics. Finally, in Chapter 3, I examine how federal regulatory capacity affects state enforcement in the context of environmental regulation
Policy, Systems, and Environmental Levers to Improve Diet, Population Health, and Health Equity in the United States
No full textOur diets and the foods we eat are inextricably connected to our health and wellbeing. Inequitable access to healthy foods and disparities in the US food system have resulted in marginalized groups experiencing the greatest share of the burden of cardiometabolic diseases and health care costs. To support population nutrition and health, a combination of existing and novel strategies has been proposed. In this dissertation, I showcase three examples including sugary beverage excise taxes, national dietary guidelines, and unconditional cash transfers. I aim to deepen our understanding of these interventions and propose improvements that would advance their utility and impact.
In the first study (Chapter 2), we examine the impact of a sugary beverage excise tax in Philadelphia, PA, on beverage advertising and availability after 2 years of implementation. The Philadelphia tax, enacted in 2017, increases the shelf price of sugar-sweetened and artificially-sweetened beverages by 400/month, providing the experimental conditions necessary to estimate the effect of the cash transfer. We leveraged data from individuals who responded to an interviewer-assisted 24-hour recall of diet 3-6 months after implementation, and using linear regression models found that the Chelsea Eats benefits led to increased kilocalorie intake (+152.43 [95%CI:76.61, 228.25]), as well as consumption of vegetables (+0.14 cup eq. [0.04, 0.24]) and unprocessed meats (+0.51 oz [0.13, 0.90]). The intervention had stronger effects for those experiencing very low food security at baseline, where Chelsea Eats benefits led to 252.05 (95%CI: 115.07, 389.03) more kilocalories, 0.23 cup eq. (0.03, 0.43) more vegetables, and 1.02 oz (0.35, 1.70) more unprocessed meats consumed. Policymakers should consider cash transfer type interventions as a means to improve nutrition and diet, especially for populations with limited access to other safety net programs.
These studies highlight three different yet timely examples of approaches to improve diet that have garnered traction recently for their reach and potential effectiveness. Ultimately, regardless of strategy, the collective efforts of researchers, policymakers, and communities will be needed to sustainably address inequities in the food environment and advance population health