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The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence from Thailand
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000978_001This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product-level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased automobiles and some steel/aluminum product exports to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry-level production data from the same period, we show that the additional US tariffs do not significantly change capacity utilization (except in the automotive sector), while firms appear to be gradually reducing their inventory levels. Finally, using firm-level export data for the US market in 2024 and 2025 (from January to July), we find that importers from China or Chinese firms improve their export ranking in the US in 2025. Such firms are also more likely to continue exporting to the US in 2025.technical repor
Legalizing Illegal Construction: Government Action in Guangzhou
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000966_001This paper examines the legalization of unauthorized construction in the redevelopment of urban villages in Guangzhou. Using Lijiao Village and Kangle Village as case studies, it explores how local governments navigate compensation policies, administrative enforcement, and land-use regulations. The findings reveal inconsistencies in policy and legal ambiguities, leading to varied outcomes in demolition and compensation. The study argues that addressing informal housing issues requires clear legal frameworks and a balance between urban modernization and social equity.technical repor
Chapter 2. Analysis of Taiwan's Trade Structure Based on Bilateral Trade Indices and the Input- Output Table
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Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement
Get PDFapplication/pdfIDP000967_001The relationship between uncertainty and capital flows has attracted significant attention; however, the specific impact of economic (policy) uncertainty arising from extreme events on extreme capital flow movements remains understudied. This paper examined the effects of global and domestic economic uncertainty on extreme capital flow movement by analyzing a comprehensive dataset encompassing 57 countries on a quarterly basis from 1986 Q1 through 2023 Q4. Our results suggested that (i) in contrast to financial uncertainty, heightened U.S. EPU actually reduces the probability of stops and retrenchment occurrences and this effect is predominantly driven by U.S. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty; (ii) in the post-crisis period, U.S. EPU has gradually superseded financial uncertainty as one of the key drivers of extreme capital movements; (iii) unlike domestic EPU that exerts limited influence on extreme capital flow episodes, we found that elevated domestic WUI shocks reduce the probability of surge occurrences, and this effect is predominantly driven by the pre-crisis period in emerging markets; (iv) while demonstrating effects similar to U.S. EPU, U.S. WUI effects materialize after a twoquarter lag, indicating the presence of a temporal delay in U.S. WUI’s impact.technical repor