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The Effect of Incumbents‘ Partisanship on the Formation of Party Identification
No full textParty Identification (PID) is a central concept for explaining and predicting not only electoral choices but also issue attitudes and political perception. The traditional conception of PID attributes its formation mostly to citizens’ primary socialization by family and primary social groups. While it has often been debated in the literature whether PID really is an ‘unmoved mover’ or subject to feedback effects from the political performance of party candidates or their issue positions, this discussion has usually focused on the national level. We complement this perspective in two ways: first, by looking at feedback effects that originate at the level of individual U.S. states, and second, by looking at the socialization effects of the partisanship of presidents and state governments. Using multilevel ordered logit modeling applied to cumulated American National Election Studies data from 1952 to 1992, we show that even after controlling for parental PID and other predictors, the party not only of the U.S. president but also of the governor of the state experienced during adolescence and early adulthood affects the formation of PID. Our results confirm the importance of the political context experienced during late adolescence and early adulthoodfor a complete understanding of citizens’ party identification
The Effect of Incumbents‘ Partisanship on the Formation of Party Identification
No full textParty Identification (PID) is a central concept for explaining and predicting not only electoral choices but also issue attitudes and political perception. The traditional conception of PID attributes its formation mostly to citizens’ primary socialization by family and primary social groups. While it has often been debated in the literature whether PID really is an ‘unmoved mover’ or subject to feedback effects from the political performance of party candidates or their issue positions, this discussion has usually focused on the national level. We complement this perspective in two ways: first, by looking at feedback effects that originate at the level of individual U.S. states, and second, by looking at the socialization effects of the partisanship of presidents and state governments. Using multilevel ordered logit modeling applied to cumulated American National Election Studies data from 1952 to 1992, we show that even after controlling for parental PID and other predictors, the party not only of the U.S. president but also of the governor of the state experienced during adolescence and early adulthood affects the formation of PID. Our results confirm the importance of the political context experienced during late adolescence and early adulthood for a complete understanding of citizens’ party identification
The performance of international organizations: a new measure and dataset based on computational text analysis of evaluation reports
No full textInternational organizations (IOs) of the United Nations (UN) system publish around 750 evaluation reports per year, offering insights on their performance across project, program, institutional, and thematic activities. So far, it was not feasible to extract quantitative performance measures from these text-based reports. Using deep learning, this article presents a novel text-based performance metric: We classify individual sentences as containing a negative, positive, or neutral assessment of the evaluated IO activity and then compute the share of positive sentences per report. Content validation yields that the measure adequately reflects the underlying concept of performance; convergent validation finds high correlation with human-provided performance scores by the World Bank; and construct validation shows that our measure has theoretically expected results. Based on this, we present a novel dataset with performance measures for 1,082 evaluated activities implemented by nine UN system IOs and discuss avenues for further research
Die Stichwahl als integrales Element eines Grabenwahlsystems. Ergebnisse von Simulationen mit Bezug auf die deutschen Bundestagswahlen von 2017 und 2021.
No full textIm Rahmen der Arbeit der vom Deutschen Bundestag eingesetzten Wahlrechtskommission wurde von den Parteien CDU und CSU die Einführung eines Grabenwahlsystems vorgeschlagen, bei dem der Wahlkreisgewinner mit absoluter Mehrheit ermittelt werden soll, in der Regel durch eine Stichwahl in einem zweiten Wahlgang. Als Argumente für ein solches System wurde vorgebracht, dass damit die üblichen Effekte des Grabenwahlsystems wie starke Verzerrungen der Proportionalität und mögliche Umkehrungen der Mehrheitsverhältnisse abgemildert werden könnten. Der Artikel untersucht die zu erwartenden Effekten der Einführung eines Grabenwahlsystems mit absoluter Mehrheitsregel mit Stichwahl für den Deutschen Bundestag anhand von Simulationen für die letzten beiden Bundestagswahlen. Entgegen den Vermutungen kommt es bei einer solchen Ausgestaltung des Grabenwahlsystems zu stärkeren Verzerrungen des Proporzes als bei einem Grabenwahlsystem, das mit der relativen Mehrheitsregel in den Wahlkreisen kombiniert ist. Des Weiteren kommt es häufiger auch zu Umkehrungen der Parlamentsmehrheiten. Die bekannten Nachteile des Grabenwahlsystems werden also in keiner Weise abgeschwächt, ganz im Gegenteil verstärken sie sich noch
No Voice for the Global South: Analysing the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (ISA).
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