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Keskuspankin elektroninen raha : Suomen Pankin toimirahakokeilu 1990-luvun alkupuoliskolla
No full textKäteisen rahan maksuvälinekäytön suhteellisen osuuden vähentyessä moni keskuspankki pohtii paraikaa käteisen ominaisuuksia mukailevan elektronisen rahan (Central Bank Digital Currency) mahdollista käyttöönottoa. Tässä mielessä Suomen Pankin piirissä 1990-luvun alkupuoliskolla kehitetystä elektronisesta rahasta, toimirahasta, saadut keskuspankkimaailmassa poikkeukselliset kokemukset ovat nousseet mielenkiinnon kohteeksi. Tämä selvitys käy kronologisesti läpi Suomen Pankin toimirahahankkeen historian.ei tietoa saavutettavuudest
Annual report 2020
No full textOPERATIONS AND STRATEGY 4
BANK OF FINLAND IN A NUTSHELL 6
BANK OF FINLAND STRATEGY UPDATED IN 2020 7
DIVISION OF RESPONSIBILITIES BETWEEN MEMBERS OF THE BOARD 12
STRONG EXPERTISE IS THE CURRENCY OF STABILITY 15
THE BANK OF FINLAND’S BUDGET FOR 2021 AND OPERATING EXPENSES 20
MANAGING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS: COVID-19 HAS CUT
THE BANK OF FINLAND’S EMISSIONS 26
ANNUAL REPORT 29
MONETARY POLICY 30
FINANCIAL STABILITY 67
CASH AND PAYMENTS 91
MANAGEMENT OF FINANCIAL ASSETS 116
ENGAGEMENT AND COOPERATION 138
SUSTAINABILITY AT THE BANK OF FINLAND 165
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 170
BALANCE SHEET 171
PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT 174
THE BOARD'S PROPOSAL ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PROFIT 176
ACCOUNTING CONVENTIONS 177
NOTES ON THE BALANCE SHEET 184
NOTES ON THE PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT 211
APPENDICES TO THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 222
NOTES ON RISK MANAGEMENT 224
AUDITOR'S REPORT 230
STATEMENT REGARDING THE AUDIT 231
ORGANISATION 23
Suomen Pankin eläkerahaston vuosikertomus 2020
No full textSisällys
1 Suomen Pankin eläkerahasto .... 2
2 Eläkevastuu ja maksetut eläkkeet .... 3
3 Tilinpäätös .... 4
3.1 Tase .... 4
3.2 Tuloslaskelma .... 5
3.3 Suomen Pankin eläkerahaston tilinpäätöksen kommentit ....
Effects of Monetary Policy Decisions on Professional Forecasters’ Expectations and Expectation Uncertainty
No full textIn this paper, we examine how professional forecasters’ expectations and expectation uncertainty have reacted to the ECB’s interest rate and non-conventional monetary policy decisions during the period 1999-2017. The analysis makes use of a conventional intervention dummy -type set up. The results indicate that expectations have been sensitive to policy actions, but forecasters’ reactions are quite different and, as a rule, do not seem to follow the predictions of a standard New Keynesian model. Also the relationship between inflation and output forecasts does not seem to follow a Phillips curve relationship. Rather, the forecasters interpret policy actions as signals of ECB’s inside information. Thus, for instance, cuts in policy rates are interpreted as the CB’s information of worse than generally assumed cyclical situation rather than the eventual positive effects of lower interest rates. The magnitude of expectation effects depends much of the way in which other macro variables are controlled. Even so the basic feature of these effects remain the same.1 Introduction 2 Data and empirical framework 3 Evaluation of the results for the point forecasts 4 The impact of monetary policy decisions on forecast uncertainty 5 Concluding remarksPublished in BoF DP 24/2018 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20181120213
Bond vs bank finance and the Great Recession
No full textThe typical increase of the corporate bond-to-bank ratio during downturns is known to mitigate business cycle recessions. In the three longest and deepest post-war U.S. recessions this ratio didn't increase from their outsets. In this paper we focus on the timing of the corporate bank-to-bond substitution in the Great Recession, simulating counterfactual paths for output growth under plausible notional behaviors of the bond-to-bank ratio. We find that the Great Recession would have been milder and the recovery much stronger if the bank-to-bond substitution had started since the outset of the recession and evolved thereafter as in most U.S. recessions
High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures
No full textWe formulate the “High Liquidity Creation Hypothesis” (HLCH) that a proliferation in the core activity of bank liquidity creation increases failure probability. We test the HLCH in the context of Russian banking, where many failures occurred albeit not triggered by swings in business cycles or an exogenous shock such as a crisis. Using Berger and Bouwman (2009) liquidity creation measures, we find that high liquidity creation is associated with greater probability of bank failure and this finding survives multiple robustness checks. Our results suggest that regulatory authorities can mitigate systemic distress and reduce the costs to society from bank failures through early identification of high liquidity creators
Quantiles of growth : household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland
No full textWe analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth distribution, while reaction in the right tail of the distribution is more damped. Thus, there is a link between rapid household debt growth and increase in probabilities of more severe downturns. We also re-establish the result of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that, on average, rapid household debt accumulation is associated with slower subsequent economic growth. While the relationship of the debt growth and negative tail effects is robust along our sample period, the association between debt growth and median of the GDP growth distribution varies from significantly negative to zero, depending on the estimation sample and especially if the Finnish Great Depression of early 1990’s is included
Output gaps and cyclical indicators : Finnish evidence
No full textThe output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical indicators. This methodology produces an output gap that is similar to the ones obtained from the main methods used at the Bank of Finland and the European Commission, but requiring considerably less modelling effort. The method is also flexible and can readily be adopted to internalize additional information that captures special circumstances, such as the current pandemic. In this spirit, we extend our information set to include a service turnover indicator, and find that it clearly improves the method's ability to capture the exceptional downturn in 2020
Finlands Banks pensionsfond : Årsberättelse 2020
No full textInnehåll
1 Finlands Banks pensionsfond .... 2
2 Pensionsåtagande och utbetalda pensioner .... 3
3 Bokslut .... 4
3.1 Balansräkning .... 4
3.2 Resultaträkning ..... 5
3.3 Noter till bokslutet ....
Deep Recessions, Slowing Productivity and Missing (Dis-)inflation in the euro area
No full textThis paper analyses the role of endogenous total factor productivity dynamics in explaining business cycle persistence as well as the missing (dis-)inflation and productivity puzzles in the euro area. We show by means of an estimated medium-scale DSGE model in which TFP evolves endogenously as the result of costly investment in R&D and technology adoption that the endogenous slowdown in total factor productivity can explain the depth and persistence of the output drop and the weak recovery following the double-dip recession in the euro area. Our results suggest that a decrease in R&D efficiency and innovation is key in explaining the pre-crisis euro area productivity slowdown, while as of 2008 a crises-induced drop in technology adoption constitutes the most important factor. We document a flattening of the Phillips curve relationship under the endogenous TFP mechanism, resulting from the interaction between inflation and productivity dynamics. The endogenous reaction in TFP dampens the inflation response over the business cycle and can thus help explain both the moderate fall in euro area inflation during its crises and its sluggish increase in the subsequent recovery.Published in BoF DP 21/2019 ("Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area"