Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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Fear, overconfidence, and fundamental uncertainty shocks
No full textI study the effects of expected and realized uncertainty on Euro area macroeconomic conditions. I use a range of expected and realized uncertainty measures including those based on survey forecasts and find that the effects of expected uncertainty vanish once realized uncertainty is accounted for when using financial or news media-based measures. On the other hand, shocks to a survey-based measure of expected uncertainty do appear to have dampening effects
How much do non-performing loans hinder loan growth in Europe?
No full textThe severe recessions following the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 left numerous European banks with acutely distressed loan books. In the subsequent recovery, bank lending in Europe has fallen dramatically behind peer advanced economies. This paper focuses on how the post-crisis accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs) has hindered bank lending in Europe. In assessing the effect of NPLs, we attempt to control for demand factors, simultaneity bias, and the alternative channels through which NPLs affect lending growth. Our primary data source, proprietary quarterly bank-level data from the European Banking Authority (EBA) for 2014–2019, provides detailed information on NPLs for around 200 banks in 30 countries in the European Economic Area. The weak lending growth during the observation period implicates a transmission channel in which NPLs decrease bank profits, increase bank funding costs, and erode bank capital. We find that the strength of the credit squeeze depends on the level of NPLs in the sample. After controlling for this, our estimate of the semi-elasticity of lending growth with respect to NPLs closely matches earlier studies. Given the vital role of bank lending in funding European investment, the possible depressing effect on economic growth from a large NPL burden represents an important policy consideration
Talouskatsaus 8/2021
No full textTalouden, rahoitusmarkkinoiden ja rahatalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 7
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 16
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 22
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 30
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 38
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 47
Kehikot 51
1 Toimitusketjujen häiriöt ja niiden vaikutus maailmantalouteen 51
2 Yhdysvaltojen ja Ison-Britannian työmarkkinakehitys pandemian jälkeisellä elpymisjaksolla 58
3 Rahoitusolot euroalueen yritysten näkökulmasta 63
4 Inflaatiokompensaation markkinapohjaisten mittareiden dekomponointi inflaatio-odotuksiin ja inflaatioriskipreemioon 71
5 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 28.7.-2.11.2021 76
6 Talousnäkymiä koskeva EKP:n viestintä vertailevassa tarkastelussa 82
7 Toimitusketjujen häiriöiden syyt ja niiden vaikutukset euroalueen tehdasteollisuuteen 87
8 Finanssipolitiikka vuonna 2022 – vuoden 2022 alustavat talousarviosuunnitelmat tarkastelussa 92
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Ehdotus Suomen talousosaamisen edistämisen kansalliseksi strategiaksi
No full textSuomen talousosaamisen strategian missiona on saada ihmiset ymmärtämään talousosaamisen merkitys omassa elämässään ja toimimaan omassa taloudessaan eettisesti ja kestävällä tavalla. Strategian visiona on, että suomalaisten talousosaaminen on maailman parasta vuoteen 2030 mennessä.
Kansalaisten talousosaamisen paraneminen tuottaa hyvinvointia koko kansantalouteen, sen kaikille sektoreille. Yksityisten ihmisten kannalta tämä tarkoittaa sitä, että he osaavat tehdä hyviä taloudellisia päätöksiä, eivätkä joudu taloutensa kanssa ongelmiin.ei tietoa saavutettavuudest
Proposal for a national strategy to promote financial literacy in Finland
No full textThe mission of Finland’s financial literacy strategy is to make people understand the importance of finances in their own lives and to act in their own finances in an ethical and sustainable way. The vision of the strategy is for Finns’ financial literacy to be the best in the world by 2030. Improving the financial literacy of citizens will generate wellbeing for the whole national economy, for all of its sectors. For private individuals, this means that they are able to make good financial decisions and avoid difficulties with their finances.ei tietoa saavutettavuudest
Competition and regulation in the Finnish ATM industry
No full textDeclining ATM numbers pose a challenge for competition policy and financial regulatory authorities. In this report we review the Finnish experience of regulating the competition in the ATM industry. To analyze the Finnish developments we extend the model of Kopsakangas-Savolainen and Takalo (2014), and draw on the existing literature and benchmarks from the selected other countries. We document how changes in the ATM market regulation and market structure has decoupled the ATM network size from the declining cash use in Finland. The Finnish regulation has almost exclusively focused on foreign fees, while in general it would be better to regulate interchange fees. If the optimal fee regulation is not feasible, the authorities could also consider quantity regulation
Optimal Emission Prices Over the Business Cycles
No full textWe prove that under the most typical circumstances optimal emission prices are procyclical, i.e., prices should be lower during recessions. The procyclicality is more likely when emissions propagate very slowly into environmental damage. A prime example of such process is CO2 emissions. We show that carbon prices should be closely linked to the fuctuations of the marginal utility of consumption, which implies relatively modest magnitude of carbon price fuctuations. Our fndings imply that climate policies should focus on setting the carbon price to the optimal growth path level and give carbon price fuctuations only a secondary role. Opposite to the carbon price, the cyclicality of optimal emissions depends on the production technology in the energy sector, and may become countercyclical in future if the technology mix becomes less fossil dependent.Published in BoF DP 23/2013
Inflation and demography through time
No full textDemography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.Published in BoF DP 8/2018
The Differing Effects of Individual and Group Incentive Pay on Worker Separation : Evidence using Finnish Panel Data
No full textWe investigate the role of individual incentive (II) and group incentive (GI) pay as determinants of worker separation using a large panel data set from Finland during 1997–2006. For white-collar workers, GI pay is associated significantly with an increased probability of separation (diminished employment stability), but in large firms only. For blue-collar workers, II pay is associated with a decreased probability of separation (enhanced employment stability), in both small and large firms. By providing results for different forms of performance pay in a single study, some of our findings are novel. In accounting for differences in our empirical findings compared to those in earlier studies, our results suggest that outcomes depend on the differing institutional contexts found in coordinated market economies (such as Finland) and liberal market economies.Published also as BoF DP 33/201
Talouskatsaus 4/2021
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys ..... 2
Yhteenveto ..... 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö ..... 8
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys ..... 17
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella ..... 23
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset ..... 29
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto ..... 37
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys ..... 46
Kehikot ..... 50
1 Euroalueen vaihtotaseen kehitys pandemian aikana ..... 50
2 Julkisten tukitoimien vaikutus yritysten likviditeettitilanteeseen
pandemian aikana ..... 57
3 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 27.1.–27.4.2021 ..... 63
4 Koronaviruskriisin vaikutus euroalueen työmarkkinoihin miesten ja naisten
kannalta ..... 69
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto ..... 78
6 Puolijohdekomponenttien puutteen vaikutukset euroalueen kauppaan,
tuotantoon ja hintoihin ..... 86
7 Vuoden 2021 vakausohjelmien merkitys euroalueen finanssipolitiikan
kannalta ..... 91
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) ..... S