Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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Talouskatsaus 8/2018
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 5
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 12
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 17
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 22
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 28
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 35
Kehikot 38
1 Nousevien markkinatalousmaiden haavoittuvuudet vertailussa aiempiin kriiseihin 38
2 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 1.8.–30.10.2018 46
3 Talouskasvun hidastumisen taustatekijöitä vuonna 2018 52
4 Euroalueen työllisyyden kasvun rakenteelliset muutokset talouden elpymisen aikana 56
5 Palkkaliukuman viimeaikainen kehitys euroalueella 61
6 Vuoden 2019 alustavien talousarviosuunnitelmien arviointi 65
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area
No full textStudying formation of inflation expectations in the euro area we propose a novel method, integrating rational, adaptive and sticky-information models. We find that in recent turbulent times, formation of inflation expectations by professional forecasters has displayed less inertia with the increased role of the perceived inflation target. Despite its slightly negative trend observed recently, the perceived target has remained broadly consistent with the ECB's announced inflation target. The direct impact of ECB inflation projections on expectations is minor, but growing marginally. However, inflation expectations remain consistent with the views and preferences of the ECB, which suggests effective management of expectations. Our results have implications for the conduct of ECB monetary policy, emphasising the need to monitor risks for price stability and expectations' de-anchoring in the context of complex models of their formation and for macroeconomic modelling, stressing the need to analyse monetary policy communication and changes in expectation formation over time.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017.http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20170627137
Bailouts, franchise value and moral hazard in banking
No full textPolicy discussions are dominated by the view that governmental safety nets offered to banks cause moral hazard and encourage risk-taking. However, [Cordella, T and E Levy Yeyati (2003). Bank bailouts: moral hazard vs. value effect. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 12, 300–330.] proposed that government support offered during crises may increase bank franchise value, resulting in less risk-taking. This paper presents additional theoretical results on the franchise value effect. The franchise value effect can dominate over the moral hazard effect even when there are no specific crisis periods. The franchise value effect dominates if bank shareholders have a weak time preference and if the decision on the intensity of risk monitoring is a long-term choice
Henkilöstötilinpäätös 2017
No full textJohdanto 3
Organisaatiomuutokset 4
Viestintäyksikköön kaksi uutta ryhmää 4
Kielipalvelutoimistosta kielipalveluryhmäksi 4
Henkilöstömäärä ja –rakenne 4
Ikärakenne 5
Sukupuolijakauma 5
Palvelussuhteen kesto 5
Rekrytoinnit ja henkilöstön vaihtuvuus 7
Työnantajakuva 7
Rekrytoinnit 7
Liikkuvuus 8
Määräaikaiset tehtävänimitykset 8
Lähtövaihtuvuus 8
Työaika ja työpanos 10
Henkilötyövuodet 10
Lisä- ja ylityöt 11
Vuosiloma 11
Palkkaus ja palkinta 11
Vuoden 2017 palkantarkistukset ja palkinta 12
Palkkakehitys 12
Osaamisen kehittäminen 14
Koulutusrakenne 14
Koulutuspanostukset 15
Suoriutumisen johtaminen 17
Esimiestyön kehittäminen 17
Tutkimustoiminta vahvistaa ekonomistiosaamista 17
Toimintatapojen kehittäminen 18
Ideapankki 18
Työhyvinvointi 19
Työkyvyn ylläpito ja sairauspoissaolot 19
Työsuojelu- ja yhteistoiminta 19
Työilmapiirin kehittäminen 20
Tasa-arvo 22
Rekrytoinnit 22
Palkkaus ja työuralla eteneminen 22
Kansainvälinen yhteistyö 22
Sisäiset työryhmät ja yhteistoimintaedustus 22
Työ- ja perhe-elämän yhteensovittaminen 22
Suomen Pankin eläkelaitos 23
Tunnuslukuyhteenveto 24
Käsitteet ja määritelmät 2
Real-time uncertainty in budget planning : evidence from euro area countries
No full textUsing rich panel data including potential output for euro area countries, we analyse budget balance forecasts and their errors. We find that budget balance forecasts are systematically biased and subject to mean reversion (tendency towards more balanced budgets). A robust result is that errors in budget balance nowcasts contribute to errors in budget balance forecasts. In addition, we find that nowcasted macroeconomic conditions can affect over-optimism in budget balance forecasts. Overall, our results emphasize the central role of nowcasting in the EU fiscal framework
Differences make a difference : Diversity in social learning and value creation
No full textPrior research has demonstrated that CEOs learn privileged information from their social connections. Going beyond the importance of the number of social ties in a CEO's social network, this paper studies the value generated from a diverse social environment. We construct an index of social-network heterogeneity (SNH) that captures the extent to which CEOs are connected to people of different demographic attributes and skill sets. We find that higher CEO SNH leads to greater firm value through the channels of better corporate innovation and diversified M&As. Overall, the evidence suggests that CEOs' exposure to human diversity enhances social learning and creates greater growth opportunities for firms
Chinese Services Gaining Significance in Global Production Chains
No full textChina has been a key participant in international fragmentation of production during the last decades. China has specialized mainly in labor-intensive manufacturing, but is striving to shift toward higher value-added production stages and production. At the same time, during recent decades, services have contributed increasing shares of valued-added to products produced through global production chains. For this reason we examine the evolving role of Chinese services in international production chains. Our results suggest that Chinese services account for an increasingly large share of production for the domestic market, and more recently have made increasing contributions to foreign production chains, which suggests that Chinese production is shifting to activities in production chains that are associated with higher value-added
Can lenders discern managerial ability from luck? Evidence from bank loan contracts
No full textWe investigate the effect of managerial ability versus luck on bank loan contracting. Borrowers showing a persistently superior managerial ability over previous years (more likely due to ability) enjoy a lower loan spread, while borrowers showing a temporary superior managerial ability (more likely due to luck) do not enjoy any spread reduction. This finding suggests that banks can discern ability from luck when pricing a loan. Firms with high-ability managers are more likely to continue their prior lower loan spread. The spread-reduction effect of managerial ability is stronger for firms with weak governance structures or poor stakeholder relationships, corroborating the notion that better managerial ability alleviates borrowers’ agency and information risks. We also find that well governed banks are better able to price governance into their borrowers’ loans, which helps explain why good governance enhances bank value