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Meta-analysis of Chinese business cycle correlation
No full textWe review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis.Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2015
Long-acting reversible contraception free of charge, method initiation, and abortion rates in Finland
No full textObjectives. To evaluate whether a public program providing long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods free of charge increases the LARC initiation rate and reduces the unintended pregnancy rate in the general population. Methods. Since 2013, all women in Vantaa, Finland, have been entitled to 1 LARC method free of charge. With time-series analysis between 2000 and 2015, we assessed whether this public program was associated with changes in steady-state mean rates of LARC initiation and abortions. Results. The initiation rate of LARCs (1/1000 women) increased 2.2-fold from 1.9 to 4.2 after the intervention (P < .001). Concomitantly, the abortion rate (1/1000 women) declined by 16% from 1.1 to 0.9 in the total sample (P < .001), by 36% from 1.3 to 0.8 among those aged 15 to 19 years (P < .001), and by 14% from 2.0 to 1.7 among those aged 20 to 24 years (P = .01). Conclusions. The LARC program was associated with increased uptake of LARC methods and fewer abortions in the population. Public Health Implications. Entitling the population to LARC methods free of charge is an effective means to reduce the unmet need of contraception and the need for abortion, especially among women younger than 25 years
Finanssisyklit taloustieteellisessä kirjallisuudessa : kirjallisuuskatsaus
No full textVuosikymmenten tauon jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinat ovat jälleen makrotaloustieteen keskeinen tutkimuskohde. Finanssisyklit ovat uusi käsite, jonka merkitys on vakiintumassa. Nämä syklit vaikuttavat etenkin luottokantoihin ja kiinteistöjen hintoihin. Ne ovat pitkäaikaisempia kuin tuotantoon ja työllisyyteen vaikuttavat suhdannevaihtelut. Globaalit finanssisyklit ovat ehkä selvimmin havaittavissa osake- ja varsinkin osakejohdannaismarkkinoilla. Pääosa kirjallisuudesta on voimakkaan empiriapainotteista, ja sen tavoitteena on pikemminkin kuvailla finanssisyklejä kuin testata niiden olemassaoloa. Mitään yleisesti hyväksyttyä valtavirtateoriaa finanssisyklejä aiheuttavasta mekanismista ei ole, mutta syyksi on esitetty muun muassa endogeenista riskinottohalukkuuden vaihtelua ja pankkien strategisesti motivoitua toinen toistensa jäljittelyä. Suomessa finanssisyklin voimakkaimmat nousuvaihteet koettiin 1980- ja 1990-lukujen lopulla, lähimenneisyyden pahin suhdannekuoppa 1990-luvun alussa
Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth
No full textWe build a model of firm-level innovation, productivity growth, and reallocation featuring endogenous entry and exit. A new and central economic force is the selection between high- and low-type firms, which differ in terms of their innovative capacity. We estimate the parameters of the model using US Census microdata on firm-level output, R&D, and patenting. The model provides a good fit to the dynamics of firm entry and exit, output, and R&D. Taxing the continued operation of incumbents can lead to sizable gains (of the order of 1.4 percent improvement in welfare) by encouraging exit of less productive firms and freeing up skilled labor to be used for R&D by high-type incumbents. Subsidies to the R&D of incumbents do not achieve this objective because they encourage the survival and expansion of low-type firms
Talouskatsaus 2/2018
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 5
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 12
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 17
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 24
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 29
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 36
Kehikot 38
1 Kestääkö öljyn hinnan viimeaikainen nousu? 38
2 Euroalueen valtion joukkolainamarkkinoiden likviditeetin kehitys EKP:n julkisen sektorin velkapapereiden osto-ohjelman aloittamisen jälkeen 43
3 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 1.11.2017–30.1.2018 47
4 Osa-aikatyöllisyyden viimeaikainen kehitys 52
5 Euroalueen BKT:n alustavan pika-arvion luotettavuus 56
6 Kausivaihtelun ja poikkeavien havaintojen vaikutus ilman elintarvikkeiden ja energian hintoja laskettuun YKHI-inflaatioon 59
7 Finanssipolitiikan mitoitus aiempien noususuhdannejaksojen aikana 63
Artikkelit 68
(Saatavissa englanninkielisinä EKP:n verkkopalvelusta
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/html/index.en.html)
1 The real effects of credit constraints
2 The economic impact of population ageing and pension reforms
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Household Optimism and Overborrowing
No full textWe use Finnish household-level data from 1994 to 2013 to measure how often and what kind of forecast errors households make and how the errors are linked to the households' borrowing behavior and overindebtedness. We find that those households that make the largest optimistic forecast errors have greater debt-to-income ratios. They also are more likely to report that they suffer from excessive debt loads and have problems in coping with their bills. There are no such systematic effects for the households that make pessimistic forecast errors.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2012.http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-2014080734
Internationalization of the use of Chinese currency : perspectives from the New and the Ancient Silk Roads
No full textIn this paper, we provide an up-to-date analysis of issues and perspectives related to the potential international and regional use of the Chinese currency, with a special focus on the New Silk Road (or One Belt, One Road OBOR) initiative as well as an examination of the use of various forms of Chinese money along the Ancient Silk Road. From the perspectives of China, the OBOR project fulfills several national objectives, with the internationalization of the RMB being one potential aim. We adopt and extend an agglomeration-geography model and apply the model to the OBOR initiative and the resulting increased use of the Chinese currency. Our paper also provides a discussion of the experiences of using various forms of Chinese money along the Ancient Silk Road.Published in BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2017 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20170519130
Comments by Iikka Korhonen, on Capital Control and Monetary Policy in Asian Emerging Market Economies
No full textThe role of auditors in merger and acquisition completion time
No full textUsing a sample of 664 merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions and office‐level audit data, this study investigates the role of auditors in M&A completion time. We find that having a common auditor for both acquirer and target firms in M&A transactions increases the completion time of such transactions because the exposure to higher litigation and reputational costs outweighs the information‐access advantage of common auditors. However, auditors' past experience in M&A transactions helps reduce completion time and costs. These results are robust to having Big N auditors at both ends as well as to various acquirer, target, and deal characteristics
Puheet ja esitelmät : Välimäki Tuomas 2018
No full textKooste Tuomas Välimäen vuonna 2018 pitämistä puheista ja esitelmistä. Tarkemmat tiedot löytyvät Suomen Pankin verkkosivuilta