Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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Comparing Fiscal Consolidation Multipliers across Models in Europe
No full textThis paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the macroeconomic effects of a temporary fiscal tightening when the zero lower bound (ZLB) on monetary policy holds for two years. The main results are as follows. First, the ZLB does not greatly affect short-run multipliers in the case of a temporary fiscal tightening implemented in isolation by a generic euro-area (EA) country. Second, the ZLB unfolds quite sizable effects on the size of multipliers if the same fiscal tightening measure is simultaneously implemented in the whole EA. Third, public consumption multipliers are typically larger in absolute value than short-run tax (on labor income, capital income, and consumption) multipliers. Fourth, recessionary effects of the initial fiscal tightening are lower if distortionary taxes are reduced in the medium and long run.Also available as European Central Bank Working Paper No 1760 2015
The income elasticity of mortgage loan demand
No full textOne explanation for the emergence of the housing market bubble and the subprime crisis is that increases in individuals’ income led to higher increases in the amount of mortgage loans demanded, especially for the middle class. This hypothesis translates to an increase in the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand before 2007. Using applicant‐level data, we test this hypothesis and find that the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand in fact declines in the years before 2007, especially for the mid‐ and lower‐middle income groups. Our finding implies that increases in house prices were not matched by increases in loan applicants’ income
Banking Crisis Prediction with Differenced Relative Credit
No full textIndicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. Differences in this ratio seem a highly promising early warning indicator. We test a large number of slightly different versions of the differenced credit-to-GDP ratio with data on euro area members. The optimal time interval of the difference is about two years. Using the moving average of GDP over several years rather than the latest annual data is shown to have little impact on forecasting performance. The proposed indicator demonstrates particular promise at relatively short forecasting horizons (2–3 years).Also as BoF Economics Review 4/2019 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20190606122
Talouskatsaus 8/2019
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 6
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 14
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 20
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 24
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 30
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 36
Kehikot 39
1 Tuontitullien vaikutukset globaalien arvoketjujen maailmassa 39
2 Markkinoiden reaktiot kaksiportaisiin varantokorkoihin 45
3 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 31.7.–29.10.2019 49
4 Euroalueen työmarkkinatilanteen indikaattoreja 55
5 Sosiaaliturvamaksujen ja minimipalkkojen viimeaikainen kehitys euroalueella 59
6 Euroalueen pk-yritysten vientikauppa SAFE-kyselyn tulosten valossa 63
7 Vuoden 2020 alustavien talousarviosuunnitelmien arviointi – kohti finanssipolitiikan ohjausjärjestelmän uudistusta 68
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Senior debt and market discipline : Evidence from bank-to-bank loans
No full textWe empirically investigate whether taking senior bank loans would enhance market discipline and control risk-taking among borrowing banks. Controlling for endogeneity concern arising from borrowing bank self-select into taking senior bank debt, we document that both the spreads and covenants in loan contracts are sensitive to bank risk variables. Our analysis also reveals that borrowing banks reduce their risk exposure after their first issuance of senior bank debt. We also find that lending banks significantly increase their collaboration with borrowing banks and increase their presence in the home markets of borrowing banks
Political influence and financial flexibility : Evidence from China
No full textThis paper investigates how political influence affects firms’ financial flexibility and speed of adjustment toward target leverage ratios. We find that at the macro level, firms in environments with high political advantages, proxied by provincial affiliations with heads of state as well as political status and party rank of provincial leaders, adjust faster. At the micro level, firms that are state-owned, have CPC members as executives, or bear low exposure to changes in political uncertainty adjust faster. When interacted, the micro-level political factors have more significant impact
In search of Fluctuations : Another Look at China's Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates
No full textChina’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Real GDP growth in the constructed series decreased in 2015–2016, picked up in 2017, and again decelerated in 2018, in contrast to the rather stable official real GDP growth rates of these years. Furthermore, in recent years the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the official figures.BOFIT DP 23/201
Talouskatsaus 6/2019
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 6
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 15
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 20
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 25
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 30
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 38
Kehikot 41
1 Syyskuun rahapoliittiset toimet 41
2 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 17.4.–30.7.2019 45
3 Euroalueen teollisuustuotannon supistumisen koti- ja
ulkomaiset taustatekijät 50
4 Miten euroalueen työllisyyden viimeaikainen kasvu vertautuu
aikaisempaan kehitykseen? 53
5 Kotitalouksien tuloriski suhdannekierron aikana 58
6 Miten katteet vaikuttavat inflaatiopaineisiin euroalueella? 65
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Suomen Pankin vuosikertomus 2018
No full textPÄÄJOHTAJAN TERVEHDYS 4
TOIMINTAKERTOMUS 6
RAHAPOLITIIKKA 8
RAHOITUSVAKAUS 32
VAIKUTTAMINEN JA YHTEISTYÖ 45
RAHA JA MAKSAMINEN 64
VARALLISUUDEN HALLINTA JA VASTUULLISUUS 79
TILINPÄÄTÖS 116
TASE 117
TULOSLASKELMA 120
JOHTOKUNNAN ESITYS VOITONJAOSTA 122
TILINPÄÄTÖKSEN LAATIMISPERIAATTEET 123
TASEEN LIITETIEDOT 130
TULOSLASKELMAN LIITETIEDOT 151
TILINPÄÄTÖKSEN LIITTEET 161
RISKIENHALLINNAN LIITETIEDOT 163
TILINTARKASTUSKERTOMUS 169
LAUSUNTO EUROOPAN KESKUSPANKKIJÄRJESTELMÄN JA EUROOPAN KESKUSPANKIN PERUSSÄÄNNÖN ARTIKLAN 27 MUKAISESTA TILINTARKASTUKSESTA 170
ORGANISAATIO 17
Talouskatsaus 2/2019
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 6
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 13
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 18
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 23
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 29
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 36
Kehikot 39
1 Euroalueen ulkopuolisten kehittyneiden talouksien nykyisen noususuhdanteen luonnehdintaa: mitä on odotettavissa? 39
2 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 31.10.2018–29.1.2019 44
3 Työllisyyden kasvu ja BKT euroalueella 50
4 Yhdenmukaistetun kuluttajahintaindeksin uudet ominaisuudet: eritellyt
ryhmät, viivakoodinlukijoiden tiedot ja verkkosivujen haravointi 53
5 Uusi valmismatkojen hintaindeksin laskentamenetelmä Saksassa ja sen
vaikutus YKHI-inflaatioon 57
6 Velan koron ja BKT:n kasvuvauhdin välinen ero ja julkishallinnon velkaantuminen 61
7 Euroopan komission vuoden 2019 arvio makrotalouden
epätasapainoista ja uudistusten edistymisestä 66
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S