Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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Talouskatsaus 4/2019
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 6
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 14
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 19
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 24
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 29
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 38
Kehikot 41
1 Vuonna 2018 vähentynyt pääoman nettovienti euroalueelta: suorien
ulkomaisten sijoitusten ja arvopaperisijoitusten supistuminen 41
2 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 30.1.–16.4.2019 48
3 Euroalueen talouden hitaamman kasvun vaiheiden määritelmät ja
ominaisuudet 54
4 Luottamus ja investoinnit 59
5 Euroalueen vuokrainflaatio kriisin jälkeisenä aikana 63
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Mastering Central Bank Communication Challenges via Twitter
No full textThis study examines the Twitter policies and use of European central banks. Almost every European central bank maintains an institutional Twitter account, but tweeting activity, tweet content and usage restrictions on Twitter use by individual staff members vary considerably. We further consider the evolution of Twitter use by European central banks in light of the growing importance of financial stability in central bank policy messaging. To study these issues, we create a database of tweets from European central banks and financial supervisors, as well as attempt to gauge how closely professional economists follow central banks on Twitter. Central banks’ Twitter activity has no relation to citizens’ online participation. We also find that central banks’ communication on financial stability with Twitter has increased over time, especially in comparison with monetary policy
Finlands Banks pensionsfond : Årsberättelse 2018
No full text1 Finlands Banks pensionsfond..5
2 Pensionsåtagande och utbetalda pensioner..7
3 Bokslut..8
3.1 Balansräkning..8
3.2 Resultaträkning..9
3.3 Noter till bokslutet..1
Predicting Relative Forecasting Performance : an Empirical Investigation
No full textThe relative performances of forecasting models change over time. This empirical observation raises two questions. First, is the relative performance itself predictable? Second, if so, can it be exploited in order to improve the forecast accuracy? We address these questions by evaluating the predictive abilities of a wide range of economic variables for two key US macroeconomic aggregates, namely industrial production and inflation, relative to simple benchmarks. We find that business cycle indicators, financial conditions, uncertainty and measures of past relative performances are generally useful for explaining the models’ relative forecasting performances. In addition, we conduct a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise, where we use the information about the conditional performance for model selection and model averaging. The newly proposed strategies deliver sizable improvements over competitive benchmark models and commonly-used combination schemes. The gains are larger when model selection and averaging are based on both financial conditions and past performances measured at the forecast origin date.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
Fiscal Policy Multipliers in an RBC Model with Learning
No full textUsing the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE. Positive effects of fiscal policy are demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally, it is shown how learning can lead to consumption and investment dynamics empirically documented during some episodes of “fiscal consolidations.”Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2012 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-2014080731
Trust in Banks
No full textTrust in banks is considered essential for an effective financial system, yet little is known about what determines trust in banks. Only a handful of single-country studies discuss the topic, so this paper aims to fill the gap by providing a cross-country analysis on the level and determinants of trust in banks. Using World Values Survey data covering 52 countries during the period 2010–2014, we observe large cross-country differences in trust in banks and confirm the influence of several sociodemographic indicators. Our main findings include: women tend to trust banks more than men; trust in banks tends to increase with income, but decrease with age and education; and access to television enhances trust, while internet access erodes trust. Additionally, religious, political, and economic values affect trust in banks. Notably, religious individuals tend to put greater trust in banks, but differences are observed across denominations. The holding of pro-market economic views is also associated with greater trust in banks.Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2016.http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20160519114
Walk on the Wild Side : Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots
No full textWe propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we provide an econometric strategy to estimate this generalized model on the data. The methodology allows the data to choose between different possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy, and temporary instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the 1970s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When temporarily unstable paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the 1970s
Corporate Misconduct and the Cost of Private Debt : Evidence from China
No full textUsing a comprehensive dataset of corporate lawsuits in China, we investigate the implications of corporate misconduct on the cost of private debt. Evidence reveals that firms involved in litigations obtain subsequent loans with stricter pricing terms, 15.1 percent higher loan spreads, than non-litigated borrowers. Strong political connection and repeated relationship help to flatten the sensitivity of loan pricing to litigation. Nonbank financial institutions react in stronger manner to corporate misconduct than traditional banks in pricing loans. Overall, we show that private debt holders care about borrowers’ wrongdoing in the past
An unobserved components model for Finland : Estimates of potential output and NAWRU
No full textIn this paper, we estimate a potential output model for Finland using an unobserved component model. The model builds on a production function approach, and features price and wage Phillips curves, Okun’s law and several resource-utilization indicators. We show that incorporating resource-utilization indicators, i.e. capacity utilization and long-term unemployment, improves real-time reliability of the output gap and NAWRU estimates. Our real-time estimate of the output gap is robust even in an event of a sudden turning point in the economy such as the global financial crisis. It also outperforms the HP filter estimate. Results suggest that Finland’s potential output growth slowed significantly in the aftermath of the financial crisis and that the output gap was negative for most of the subsequent decade. The slowdown in potential growth was due mainly to lackluster total factor productivity growth. The real-time results are broadly in line with the ex-post estimates of the IMF and the European Commission