Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model
No full textThis paper studies the challenge that increasing the inflation target poses to equilibrium determinacy in a mediumsized New Keynesian model without indexation fitted to the Great Moderation era. For moderate targets of the inflation rate, such as 2 or 4 percent, the probability of determinacy is near one conditional on the monetary policy rule of the estimated model. However, this probability drops significantly conditional on model-free estimates of the monetary policy rule based on real-time data. The difference is driven by the larger response of the federal funds rate to the output gap associated with the latter estimates
Democracy and credit
No full textDoes democratization reduce the cost of credit? Using global syndicated loan data from 1984 to 2014, we find that democratization has a sizable negative effect on loan spreads: a 1-point increase in the zero-to-ten Polity IV index of democracy shaves at least 19 basis points off spreads, but likely more. Reversals to autocracy hike spreads more strongly. Our findings are robust to the comprehensive inclusion of relevant controls, to the instrumentation with regional waves of democratization, and to a battery of other sensitivity tests. We thus highlight the lower cost of loans as one relevant mechanism through which democratization can affect economic development.Published in Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 18/2018 "Democratic development and credit"
Talouskatsaus 4/2020
No full textRaha- ja reaalitalouden kehitys 2
Yhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 7
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 15
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 22
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 28
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 34
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 44
Kehikot 48
1 Koronavirukseen liittyvien sulkutoimien vaikutus matkapalvelujen
kauppaan 48
2 Koronaviruspandemian vaikutus sijoittajien riskinottohalukkuuteen
optiohintojen kuvastamana 53
3 Koronaviruspandemia ja pk-yritysten rahoituksensaanti:
kyselytutkimuksen tuloksia 58
4 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 29.1.–5.5.2020 63
5 Alueellisten työmarkkinoiden kehitys finanssikriisin ja sitä seuranneen
elpymisen aikana 70
6 Lyhennetyn työajan järjestelyt ja niiden vaikutukset palkkoihin ja
käytettävissä oleviin tuloihin 75
7 Koronaviruskriisi ja sen vaikutukset finanssipolitiikkaan 79
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
How Effective is the Taylor rule? : Some Insights from the Time-Frequency Domain
No full textWhen the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the macroeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley and Hudgins (2015) to evaluate macroeconomic performance when the central bank sets interest rates based on a conventional or modified Taylor rule (TR). We compare the simulated performance of jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy under an unrestricted baseline model with performance under the TR. We simulate the model under relatively small and large weighting of the output gap in the TR specification, and for both low and high inflation environments. The results show that the macroeconomic outcome depends on whether the conventional or modified Taylor rule is used, and whether the central bank is operating in a low or high inflation environment
Lessons learned from the world’s first CBDC
No full textCentral banks worldwide are currently exploring so called Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). The Avant smart card system created by the Bank of Finland in the 1990’s can be considered the world’s first CBDC and the only one so far that has gone into production. Avant cards were based on smart card technology similar to that used in debit and credit cards today. Even though the system was initiated, developed, and for the first few years operated by the central bank, it was eventually spun off and sold to commercial banks. Once debit cards became less expensive and were upgraded to use smart card technology, Avant became obsolete and was shut down. The story of Avant can give us valuable insight contributing to the ongoing discussion regarding CBDC
Suomen Pankin vuosikertomus 2019
No full textPääjohtajan tervehdys 4
Toimintakertomus 6
Rahapolitiikka 7
Rahoitusvakaus 35
Raha ja maksaminen 54
Varallisuuden hallinta 71
Vaikuttaminen ja yhteistyö 80
Vastuullisuus 102
Toiminta ja strategia 134
Suomen Pankki pähkinänkuoressa 136
Suomen Pankki rakentaa taloudellista vakautta 137
Johtokunnan työnjako 140
Tavoite- ja tuloskehikko 143
Tilinpäätös 149
Tase 150
Tuloslaskelma 153
Johtokunnan esitys voitonjaosta 155
Tilinpäätöksen laatimisperiaatteet 156
Taseen liitetiedot 164
Tuloslaskelman liitetiedot 192
Tilinpäätöksen liitteet 205
Riskienhallinnan liitetiedot 207
tilintarkastuskertomus 214
Lausunto tilintarkastuksesta 215
Organisaatio 21
Finlands Banks årsberättelse 2019
No full textCHEFDIREKTÖRENS HÄLSNING 4
VERKSAMHETSBERÄTTELSE 6
PENNINGPOLITIK 7
FINANSIELL STABILITET 36
PENGAR OCH BETALNINGAR 53
TILLGÅNGSFÖRVALTNING 70
INFLYTANDE OCH SAMARBETE 80
SAMHÄLLSANSVAR 102
VERKSAMHET OCH STRATEGI 135
FINLANDS BANK I ETT NÖTSKAL 137
FINLANDS BANK BYGGER EKONOMISK STABILITET 138
DIREKTIONENS ARBETSFÖRDELNING 141
MÅL- OCH RESULTATSTYRNING 144
BOKSLUT 150
BALANSRÄKNING 151
RESULTATRÄKNING 154
DIREKTIONENS FÖRSLAG TILL VINSTUTDELNING 156
REDOVISNINGSPRINCIPER 157
NOTER TILL BALANSRÄKNINGEN 165
NOTER TILL RESULTATRÄKNINGEN 194
BOKSLUTSBILAGOR 207
NOTER OM RISKHANTERINGEN 209
REVISIONSBERÄTTELSE 216
UTLÅTANDE OM REVISION 217
ORGANISATION 22
Finlands Banks pensionsfond : Årsberättelse 2019
No full text1 Finlands Banks pensionsfond ........2
2 Pensionsåtagande och utbetalda pensioner.......3
3 Bokslut....... 4
3.1 Balansräkning ....... 4
3.2 Resultaträkning ....... 5
3.3 Noter till bokslutet........
Is social capital associated with corporate innovation? Evidence from publicly listed firms in the U.S
No full textWe find that social capital in U.S. counties, as captured by strength of social norms and density of social networks, is positively associated with innovation of firms headquartered in the county, as captured by patents and citations. This relation is robust in fixed-effect regressions, instrumental variable regressions with a Bartik instrument, propensity score matching regressions, and a difference-in-differences design that isolates the effects of over time variations in social capital due to corporate headquarter relocations. Strength of social norms plays a more dominant role than density of social networks in producing these empirical regularities. Cross-sectional evidence indicates the prominence of the contracting channel through which social capital relates to innovation. Additionally, we find that social capital is also positively associated with trademarks and effectiveness of corporate R&D expenditures