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    Simpli-MANA : un jeu sérieux pour sensibiliser aux inondations et à leur gestion

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    Simpli-MANA est un dispositif de jeu sérieux qui prend appui sur un jeu de rôles et un ensemble de vidéos simulant des inondations, générées à partir d’un modèle de simulation d’inondation (crue et ruissellement) (MANA-Flo). Le jeu utilise comme support pour les calculs une application en HTML. Cette application est à destination du maitre de jeu pour le guider dans l’animation de la partie et pour l’aider à évaluer les conséquences des actions des joueurs sur les indicateurs (prévention du risque inondation, préservation de la qualité environnementale, attractivité du territoire et équilibre des dépenses). Les joueurs se voient attribuer un rôle (équipe municipale, services techniques, syndicat de l’environnement, représentants des citoyens, et des acteurs du monde économique) auquel correspond une fiche détaillant ses responsabilités et missions. Les joueurs disposent également de fiches projets parmi lesquels ils devront choisir pour composer leur stratégie d’aménagement tout en respectant leur budget.Le dispositif Simpli-MANA est une version simplifiée du jeu Sim-MANA qui a été développé dans le cadre du projet MANA (Modéliser pour améliorer l’acceptabilité des Solutions fondées sur la Nature) financé par la Fondation MAIF et porté au sein d’INRAE PACA par Franck Taillandier à l’UMR RECOVER (Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience) sur le site du Tholonet. Ce jeu sérieux a été développé dans le cadre du contrat de travail entre INRAE et Annabelle Moatty (mai 2021 – juillet 2022) et a fait l’objet de deux premières déclarations d’invention en 2022 :-DIRV-22-0123 : Jeu sérieux SIM-MANA – version à destination des professionnels / experts ;-DIRV-22-0122 : Modèle MANA-flo utilisé dans le cadre du jeu SIM-MANA. Simpli-MANA est le résultat de nouveaux travaux qui ont été réalisé de Juillet 2022 à Juillet 2025 et qui ont permis de développer cette version simplifiée de Sim-MANA.Simpli-MANA c’est un jeu sérieux développé dans le cadre des travaux de recherche de ses deux auteurs Annabelle Moatty (Chargée de recherches au CNRS) et Franck Taillandier (Directeur de recherche à l’INRAE). A travers différents scénarios d'inondation, vous serez amenés à expérimenter des stratégies de développement d’un territoire virtuel : La Vita. Rassemblés au sein du Conseil Municipal, les participants devront présenter et défendre leurs projets tout au long de leur mandat. Les situations et processus, les actions proposées et leurs conséquences dans le jeu sont fondées sur les résultats de travaux scientifiques et sur l'observation des conséquences des différentes stratégies d’aménagement des territoires. La modélisation des inondations présentée dans le jeu Simpli-MANA n'a pas pour objectif de fournir des éléments de prévision des inondations, mais de mettre en situation les joueurs face à différentes stratégies et des événements de différentes intensités, dans un environnement réaliste. Le rôle des acteurs a été simplifié et s'affranchit de certaines spécificités législatives et financières. En revanche, les compétences, les ressources, les objectifs et les contraintes des acteurs ont été conçus au plus près des compétences et responsabilités réelles. La ville de la Vita a été entièrement pensée et dessinée pour le jeu, depuis les reliefs aux ruelles et habitations, en passant par les différents zonages réglementaires. Elle a été conçue selon un archétype territorial fondé sur les villes de Vitrolles et La Ciotat. Le choix d’une ville virtuelle permet de tester plus librement des stratégies "extrêmes" (comme la délocalisation d'enjeux par exemple). Cela permet aussi d’adapter et de transposer Simpli-MANA à de nombreux territoires dont tout ou partie ressemble aux caractéristiques de La Vita

    Advancing optical earth observation for EU policies: needs, opportunities, recommendations

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    International audienceThe effective translation of Earth observation (EO) measurements into actionable information for agriculture and land monitoring is critical to support policy implementation on climate, environment, and sustainable development. However, this translation remains challenging, as EO evolves from an awareness-raising instrument into an operational tool for evidence-based policymaking. To address this gap, we systematically link, for the first time, European Union (EU) land-related agricultural and environmental policies to EO-derived variables that can be generated from enhanced optical satellites expected in the next decade. We present a comprehensive framework for assessing the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of EO variables used to map, monitor, and manage crop, forest, soil, mineral, and water resources, thereby facilitating policy implementation and compliance. Upcoming Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission for the Environment (CHIME), and the Sentinel-2 Next Generation (S2NG) missions, both developed by the European Space Agency (ESA), will deliver substantial technological advancements for high-level EO-based products, enabling applications such as plant nitrogen and soil organic carbon content (SOC) estimation, species identification, and water quality characterization. Realizing the full potential of CHIME and S2NG for agricultural and environmental policy implementation will require advancing current products from prototype stages (TRL 4-6) to full operational readiness (TRL 9) through robust science-policy interfaces. Within such interfaces, we recommend exploiting existing (hyperspectral) EO data and time series, strengthening in-situ observations for robust model development and validation, and testing synergies between systems. Co-design of tailored products with policymakers is then essential to refine algorithms and align EO outputs with regulatory needs and scales. Upcoming spaceborne imaging spectroscopy and enhanced multispectral data streams thus have the potential to become game-changers and indispensable tools for EU policy implementation, providing greater traceability of key environmental and agricultural processes

    Extreme value inference for heterogeneous heavy-tailed data: A derandomization theory

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    A major mathematical difficulty in studying extreme value parameter estimators defined as empirical mean excesses is their reliance on high order statistics above a random threshold. Based on simple yet novel derandomization arguments, we provide sufficient conditions for deriving the joint asymptotic distribution of so-called tail empirical excesses and Expected Shortfall with the underlying threshold level. This high-level result allows for a strong degree of heterogeneity in the data-generating process as well as serial dependence. When the observations are independent and their average distribution is heavy-tailed, we obtain asymptotic normality results for the Hill estimator of the extreme value index, the Weissman estimator of extreme quantiles, and two estimators of Expected Shortfall above an extreme level, under substantially weaker, yet easily verifiable and interpretable conditions than those prevailing in the recent literature. In particular, we establish precise closed-form expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of each estimator. Our assumptions hold in a wide range of models where existing results may not apply, including scenarios of contaminated samples, pooled samples from several populations, heterogeneous location-scale models and the situation where observed covariate information is ignored. We discuss practical consequences of our results on simulated data and two real data applications to cyber risk and financial risk management

    How Personality Traits Interact with Social Identity in the Formation of Social Networks? A Case Study in South India

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    Using original data from rural South India, we examine how personality traits intersect with caste and gender to shape interpersonal network characteristics in a Global South context. We analyse the relationship between four personality traits (emotional stability, plasticity, conscientiousness, and locus of control) and three network outcomes (strength of ties, caste, and gender heterophily) using econometric tools. We document four main findings. Firstly, personality traits significantly shape tie strength, reflecting differences in how individuals balance relational dependence and social autonomy. Secondly, personality is associated with selective social boundary crossing, which may facilitate interaction across caste lines, while remaining constrained by gender norms. Thirdly, personality traits shape network characteristics to a similar extent across networks, suggesting that ties remain governed by stable patterns of social interaction. Fourthly, personality operates as a context-dependent resource, shaping networks primarily among individuals who are structurally able to act, particularly men and middle castes

    Calcium binding properties of heat-induced pea globulin aggregates

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    International audiencePea protein isolates used in protein-rich foods are typically produced by alkaline extraction and isoelectric precipitation and undergo thermal treatments that can modify protein structure, aggregation, and functionality. This study examines the calcium-binding capacity of heat-denatured pea globulins and the colloidal behavior of the resulting calcium–protein complexes. Protein dispersions (~ 2% w/v, pH 7.5) were thermally treated at 70, 80, and 90 ° C and analyzed in comparison to a non-heated control. Thermal properties (µDSC), surface characteristics (Zeta-potential, surface hydrophobicity), aggregation behavior (turbidity, dynamic light scattering, intrinsic viscosity), and the calcium-binding capacity of the soluble pea protein aggregates, were evaluated by progressive Ca2+ addition (0–20 mM). The denaturation rate increased from 0% to 100% with increasing temperature, leading to higher surface hydrophobicity and a reduced negative charge of the proteins. Calcium-binding of the submicrometric pea protein aggregates via intra-protein association slightly increased compared to unheated protein dispersions. Further Ca2+ addition (> 6–7 mM) promoted an increase of complex size through inter-protein association for low-denatured proteins (unheated or preheated at 70 ° C), whereas smaller and more compact protein complexes were formed in systems preheated at higher temperatures. In all cases, the addition of calcium led to the formation of insoluble protein aggregates; however, preheated systems formed apparently denser precipitates. These findings provide insights into the mechanisms underlying complex formation between pea protein aggregates and added calcium ions, and may support the development of novel plant-based food formulations with tailored texture, stability, and mineral bioavailability

    The Pearl of the Empire? Private Capital and Concession Rubber in Indochina, 1910-1945

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    In this paper, we provide an estimate of "colonial returns" in the French Empire, using a case study on Indochinese rubber plantations between 1910 and 1945. While French colonial capitalism is often distinguished from British and Dutch cases as purely mercantilist and speculative, we show that capital investments and profits were sustained and long-lasting for a number of firms in this context. Relying on an exhaustive list of listed and non-listed companies, along with capital stock, equity prices, surfaces, tonnage, and labor usage, we explain how rubber became, in less than three decades, the colony's primary crop in export value. In doing so, this paper makes three contributions to the economic history of late colonialism. First, we provide a comparison to recent studies of "colonial returns" in South East Asia: as a late-comer to the industry, Indochina benefited from innovations implemented elsewhere, and remained insulated from global limitations on production during the 1920s and 1930s, along with a rise in the global demand. Second, we show that the main driver of capital flows was a new iteration of the concession regime -the mise en valeur -, which provided firms a lenient access to land and unfree, contract labor in exchange for strict equity and cultivation clauses. As a result, Indochinese plantations had much larger surfaces than elsewhere and a more limited share of smallholder production, but also experienced less speculation than in other parts of the Empire. Third, we show that much of the gains happened after 1935, following a massive support from the French government during the Great Depression and a shift of exports from France to the U.S. These gains persisted well into the war, following a wave of concentration at the benefit of a small number of firms; pointing to the long, postcolonial legacies of colonial capital

    Quantifying the Trade Impact of SPS and TBTs with Product-level Structural Gravity

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    Non-tariff measures (NTMs), especially sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), have become crucial components of climate, industrial, and regulatory policy, impacting the majority of global trade. However, quantifying their effects on trade is challenging because NTMs are usually non-discriminatory and challenging to identify in standard gravity frameworks. Using a multistage structural gravity estimation strategy combined with a control-function correction for endogeneity, we estimate the trade elasticities and ad valorem equivalents of NTMs at the HS6 level for over 5,000 products. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in NTM trade costs, especially in environmentally relevant sectors, such as clean technologies and electric vehicles. These estimates can inform regulatory impact assessments and general-equilibrium analyses of climate-aligned trade policies

    Fault Kinematics of the 2019–2026 Puerto Rico Earthquake Sequence: Conjugate Faulting Within a Zone of Oblique Subduction

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    International audienceThe 2019-2026 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake sequence has the characteristics of an earthquake swarm with over 9,000 events of Mw 2.5 or greater over an area of 1,500 km 2 , and the largest event is an Mw 6.4 on 7 January 2020. Previous studies have proposed two structural interpretations: (a) an E-striking, N-dipping normal fault hosting the largest event with a left-lateral oblique slip; superimposed on this fault is an X-shaped conjugate strike-slip faults reflecting NE-SW shortening; and (b) a NE-striking, SE-dipping normal fault of the largest event with a right-lateral oblique slip. Based on focal mechanism solutions, global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and satellite radar interferometry data, we propose four fault families that define a slightly different X-shaped pattern: (a) left-lateral WNW-ESE faults including two parallel faults that define a 12-km-wide stepover area and pull-apart basin; (b) an WSW-ENE left-lateral fault; (c) right-lateral NNE-SSW faults; and (d) E-W left-lateral oblique-slip normal faults including the one hosting the largest event inside the pull-apart basin. This active fault kinematics closely reflects measured faults in Late-Miocene-Pliocene rocks, indicating that this deformation pattern has been active for several million years. The proposed fault kinematic model is consistent with geodetic data and an overall crustal deformation model of coupled NW-SE extension and NE-SW compression produced by oblique convergence across the North America-Caribbean plate boundary. The occurrence of prolonged earthquake sequence on crustal conjugate systems poses a seismic hazard for this oblique plate boundary.Plain language Summary:The 2019-2026 (still continuing in February 2026) Puerto Rico earthquake sequence has characteristics of an earthquake swarm, with the largest event being an M6.4 on 7 January 2020. Seismic data indicate that the M6.4 can occur on two possible fault planes with different slip directions: either left-lateral on a N-dipping fault or right-lateral on a SE-dipping fault. Using global navigation satellite system and satellite synthetic aperture radar displacement measurements, we compared the inversed displacements of the two fault models found that the N-dipping model fits the observations better. We then interpret the slip directions of earthquakes and delineate four fault families: (a) WNW-ESE left-lateral strikeslip faults including two parallel ones, (b) an WSW-ENE left-lateral fault, (c) NNE-SSW right-lateral strike-slip faults, and (d) E-W left-lateral normal faults with oblique slip. Two parallel WNW-ESE faults define an extensional basin, this fault pattern explains the N-S direction difference among the GNSS stations and the swarm-like characteristics of the sequence. These earthquakes reflect continued crestal extension (i.e., extension related to the top of an anticlinal axis) along the Puerto Rico-Virgin Island basement arch. Similar earthquake sequences are not controlled by regional faults and can occur over the North America-Caribbean plate boundary

    High throughput sequencing in the diagnosis and surveillance of tick-borne diseases: A narrative review

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    International audienceTicks are blood-feeding arthropods that can transmit a wide variety of microorganisms (bacteria, viruses, protozoa, and filarial nematodes) when they feed on various vertebrate hosts. In the recent years, high-throughput sequencing (HTS), also called next-generation sequencing, has become a key tool for detecting and characterizing microorganisms, whether they are pathogens or part of the tick's own microbiota. This narrative review summarizes current applications of HTS for the surveillance and diagnosis of tick-borne diseases within a One Health framework.From nucleic acids extracted from a tick sample, HTS enables the possibility of simultaneous detection of multiple microorganisms, and provides valuable information on potential reservoir hosts through blood meal analysis. It has revealed a vast diversity of bacterial, viral, protozoan agents and filarial nematodes in various tick species worldwide, including unexpected or novel pathogens. HTS has also improved our understanding of the tick microbiota and how it interacts with pathogens, which could have an impact on vector competence.In the field of microbiological diagnosis, HTS provides a complementary or alternative approach to traditional diagnostic tests, particularly in cases with non-specific symptoms or when the etiology is unknown. HTS has proven to be effective in detecting rare or novel pathogens, including some transmitted by ticks. It has also enabled the reconstruction of whole genomes of microorganisms from clinical samples or ticks, thereby improving our understanding of the molecular epidemiology of these agents.By bridging the vector, its pathogens, the reservoir host, and human or animal clinical outcomes, HTS represents a cornerstone technology for future integrated surveillance systems of TBDs within a One Health perspective

    Detecting outliers in compositional data using invariant coordinate selection

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    National audienceInvariant Coordinate Selection (ICS) is a multivariate statistical method introduced by Tyler et al. (2009) and based on the simultaneous diagonalization of two scatter matrices. A model based approach of ICS, called Invariant Coordinate Analysis, has already been adapted for compositional data in Muehlmann et al.(2021). In a model free context, ICS is also helpful at identifying outliers (Nordhausen and Ruiz-Gazen, 2022). We propose to develop a version of ICS for outlier detection in compositional data. This version is first introduced in coordinate space for a specific choice of ilr coordinate system associated to a contrast matrix and follows the outlier detection procedure proposed by Archimbaud et al. (2018a). We then show that the procedure is independent of the choice of contrast matrix and can be defined directly in the simplex. To do so, we first establish some properties of the set of matrices satisfying the zero-sum property and introduce a simplex definition of the Mahalanobis distance and the one-step M-estimators class of scatter matrices. We also need to define the family of elliptical distributions in the simplex. We then show how to interpret the results directly in the simplex using two artificial datasets and a real dataset of market shares in the automobile industry

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