Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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How to build a Ukrainian Development Bank: Leveraging European history and Ukraine’s own reform experience
No full textVoxEU-CEPREstablishing a Ukrainian Development Bank is key to Ukraine’s post-war recovery, to foster both international trust and local ownership. This column describes how, drawing on lessons from the European national development banks and Ukraine’s recent reforms, a Ukrainian Development Bank could integrate existing financial structures, channel EU aid, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and drive economic modernisation. Balancing local ownership with robust governance and civil oversight to mitigate corruption risks will be crucial to ensure effective integration into the EU and sustainable development
The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It’s All About Taxes
No full textInternational audienceHistorically, large changes in U.S. government spending induced fiscal efforts that were not all alike, with some using more progressive taxes than others. We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model to analyse how the distribution of taxes across households shapes spending multipliers. The model yields empirically realistic distributions in marginal propensities to consume and labour elasticities, which result in lower responsiveness to tax changes for higher-income earners. In turn, multipliers are larger when spending is financed with higher tax progressivity—that is, when the tax burden falls more heavily on higher-income earners. This result is historically material. We estimate that, on average, tax rates increased more for top-income than for bottom-income earners after a spending shock. Thus, the typical U.S. spending shock was financed with higher tax progressivity. We further exploit the historical variation in the financing of spending to estimate progressivity-dependent multipliers, which we find consistent with the model
The causal impact of children? Rethinking the identification and estimation of child penalties
No full textA fast-growing literature estimates child penalties -the impact of parenthood on the labor market outcomes of mothers relative to fathers -using event study design. This paper clarifies the identification assumption underlying the most commonly used specification with event time, year, and age fixed effects, and shows that this approach is prone to bias in the presence of heterogeneity by age and calendar year, even under valid identification. I then propose an unbiased estimator, using the same identification framework. Applied to French administrative data, my estimates for mothers are 27% smaller than those using the standard approach. The paper also discusses identification under an alternative parallel trend assumption, that is, when controlling for individual unobserved heterogeneity, and highlights key trade-offs in defining counterfactuals, as one cannot simultaneously absorb individual heterogeneity, age, age at birth, and event time. I provide a framework to build an estimator step-by-step, which is easily adaptable depending on which comparisons researchers assess most appropriate. Finally, I document substantial heterogeneity by age at childbirth for both mothers and fathers. By eight years after the birth of their first child, mothers aged 20-25 at birth lose 50% compared to their counterfactual earnings, compared to 12-20% for older mothers. Fathers aged 20-25 at first birth earn on average 26% less eight years later, while effects for older fathers are close to zero. These findings have important implications for both policy and applied research using event study designs to estimate the causal impact of children
Cost-utility analysis of a web-based interactive patient education platform: evidence from a randomized clinical trial for end-stage renal disease patients
No full textInternational audienceObjectives: Chronic kidney disease and its most severe complication, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), represents an estimated financial burden of €4.4 billion in 2021 in France. Therapeutic patient education (TPE) improves ESRD management and health outcomes. This study explored whether providing access to an interactive web-based TPE platform with community features was cost-effective.Methods: A within-trial cost-utility analysis was carried out over an 18 months horizon, using data from the PIC-R (Plateforme Interactive Communautaire—dialyse et transplantation Rénale) trial. ESRD or post-transplant patients were randomized 1:1:1 to a control group with no specific TPE program (Control), an intervention group with online TPE (e-TPE) and an intervention group with online TPE coupled with community features such as a patient forum and a chatroom with both patients and health care professionals (e-TPE + chat). The outcome measure was the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and per year of full capability (YFC). Both intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses were conducted, and missing data were handled using multiple imputation and selection models. Sensitivity analyses were performed.Results: Among the 815 patients assessed for eligibility across 12 French centres, a total of 549 patients were included in the economic analysis: 186 in the Control group, 189 in the e-TPE group and 174 in the e-TPE + chat group. The e-TPE group demonstrated cost savings and slightly higher QALYs compared to the control group, making e-TPE dominant. Conversely, the e-TPE + chat intervention resulted in higher costs without substantial effectiveness gains, making it not cost-effective.Conclusions: e-TPE was deemed cost-effective for ESRD patients, while e-TPE + chat was not. Web-based platforms improve ESRD management when targeted to likely users
The Unemployment‐Risk Channel in Business‐Cycle Fluctuations
No full textInternational audienceThe unemployment‐risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job‐finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous‐agent new‐Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry
La demande d’actifs risqués des épargnants après les réformes fiscales et la Covid-19
No full textInternational audienceEntre 2004 et 2014, le nombre d’actionnaires en France a diminué d’environ 50 %. Cependant, cette frilosité des épargnants observée après la crise de 2008 semble, aujourd’hui, moins d’actualité, d’autant plus que l’année 2017 a été marquée par une réforme fiscale visant à soutenir l’actionnariat : mise en place d’une flat tax et suppression de l’impôt de solidarité sur la fortune (ISF), remplacé par l’impôt sur la fortune immobilière (IFI). Mais c’était sans compter sur la crise sanitaire de la Covid-19, durant la période 2020-2021, et ses conséquences sur le marché boursier (chute des cours, augmentation du taux d’épargne, risques accrus, etc.), qui ont pu affecter l’efficacité de ces mesures. Dans ce contexte, nous proposons d’étudier les portefeuilles risqués (actions et assurances-vie en unités de compte) des ménages français, à partir des trois dernières vagues (2014-2015, 2017-2018 et 2020-2021) de l’enquête « Histoire de vie et patrimoine » de l’Insee qui présentent, aujourd’hui, l’avantage d’être panélisées
The price of youth: Income and Age-Hypergamy
No full textThis paper focuses on the role of age gaps and income in the mating process. We test the predictions of different theories of age heterogamy using a French exhaustive administrative database of newly formed same-sex and heterosexual couples. In both heterosexual and man-man couple formation, the age gap between the richer and poorer partner, and the likelihood of an extreme age gap, increase with the income of the male richer partner, especially when he belongs to the top income decile. By contrast, women, even when they rank high in the income distribution, are usually matched with an older partner. Women are found to mate with a younger partner in only one specific case: above their 60s, when they provide at least 75% of the household income or rank higher than their partner in the distribution of income in their respective age group. The marriage market thus seems to be best described by exchange theory, mitigated by a remnant of traditional norms. In a way, the price of youth depends on the sex of the buyer
Concevoir la maladie comme expérience. Fécondité, implications et limites en régime de démocratie sanitaire
No full textInternational audienceNous défendons ici une définition renouvelée de l’expérience de la maladie, entre autonomie, complémentarité et opposition du vécu intime vis-à-vis de l’expertise, de l’expérimentation et des experts. Nous appuyant sur une histoire philosophique de l’idée d’expérience, nous montrons ensuite sa richesse pour une pratique de la démocratie sanitaire soucieuse du sujet
Variants of violence : Classifying conflict types and policies for peace
No full textThis paper studies how heterogeneity in conflict determinants and types calls for different policy responses. For this purpose, we propose a novel, data-driven classification of country contexts and corresponding conflict types. We discuss several major conflict-related themes and policy-relevant recipes for curbing fighting
Does Tax-Benefit Linkage Matter for the Incidence of Payroll Taxes?
No full textInternational audienceWe analyze earnings responses to six large payroll tax and income tax reforms in France. Our findings indicate full pass-through to workers when there is a strong and transparent link between contributions and expected benefits. In contrast, employer payroll taxes with no tax-benefit linkage exhibit limited pass-through to workers, while income tax nominally borne by employees show nearly full passthrough. Together with a meta-analysis of the literature, we interpret these results as empirical support for the long-standing hypothesis that tax-benefit linkage matters for the incidence of payroll taxes. In the absence of such linkage, our findings suggest that the individual-level incidence of payroll taxes aligns with their statutory incidence