Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Preferences for COVID-19 epidemic control measures among French adults: a discrete choice experiment
No full textInternational audienceIn this stated preferences study, we describe for the first time French citizens’ preferences for various epidemic control measures, to inform longer-term strategies and future epidemics. We used a discrete choice experiment in a representative sample of 908 adults in November 2020 (before vaccination was available) to quantify the trade-off they were willing to make between restrictions on the social, cultural, and economic life, school closing, targeted lockdown of high-incidence areas, constraints to directly protect vulnerable persons (e.g., self-isolation), and measures to overcome the risk of hospital overload. The estimation of mixed logit models with correlated random effects shows that some trade-offs exist to avoid overload of hospitals and intensive care units, at the expense of stricter control measures with the potential to reduce individuals’ welfare. The willingness to accept restrictions was shared to a large extent across subgroups according to age, gender, education, vulnerability to the COVID-19 epidemic, and other socio-demographic or economic variables. However, individuals who felt at greater risk from COVID-19, and individuals expressing high confidence in the governmental management of the health and economic crisis, more easily accepted all these restrictions. Finally, we compared the welfare impact of alternative strategies combining different epidemic control measures. Our results suggest that policies close to a targeted lockdown or with medically prescribed self-isolation were those satisfying the largest share of the population and achieving high gain in average welfare, while average welfare was maximized by the combination of all highly restrictive measures. This illustrates the difficulty in making preference-based decisions on restrictions
Financial Crisis and Long-Run Labor Demand: Evidence from the Swedish Banking Crisis in the Early 90s
No full textThe Swedish banking crisis in the early 90s counts as one of the five most severe financial crises in history. We examine how firms more exposed to this event adjusted employment in the longrun and the mechanisms involved. Our analysis draws on matched employer-employee data containing the financial statements for a large sample of firms. Our difference-indifferences estimates show that firms with a greater pre-crisis debt burden experienced more difficulties in accessing external capital during the crisis compared to firms with lower baseline debts. This is consistent with the most exposed firms becoming financially constrained. More exposed firms exhibit stronger downward employment adjustments than less exposed firms, and the reductions are mainly concentrated among low-skilled workers. Employment in more exposed firms started to recover four years after the crisis and had fully recuperated about a decade later. These firms also temporarily saw a larger drop in both productivity and investment. We do not find a significant effect on the wage bill, and the estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderate effect sizes
Input subsidies, credit constraints, and expectations of future transfers: Evidence from Haiti
No full textInternational audienceWe examine the effects of a subsidy program in Haiti that provided smallholders subsidies for inputs (rice seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and specific labor tasks) using a randomized control trial. The program led to lower input use and lower yields in the year subsidies were received, and the decline in input use and yields persisted through the following year. Using data from a complementary information intervention in which randomly selected farmers were provided clarification regarding their future receipt of vouchers, we find evidence suggesting that incorrect expectations of future transfers partially explain the disappointing outcomes. In addition, instead of increasing input use, the subsidies seem to have led farmers to pay off their loans and take fewer new ones. In complex post-emergency environments such as the one in which this program took place, input subsidies may need to be avoided, as they require considerable information to optimally design and careful coordination by many actors to achieve the expected gains
Externalities in International Tax Enforcement: Theory and Evidence
No full textInternational audienceWe show that the fiscal authorities of high-tax countries can lack the incentives to combat profit shifting to tax havens. Instead, they have incentives to focus their enforcement efforts on relocating profits booked by multinationals in other high-tax countries, crowding out the enforcement on transactions that shift profits to tax havens, and reducing the global tax payments of multinational companies. The predictions of our model are motivated and supported by the analysis of two new datasets: the universe of transfer price corrections conducted by the Danish tax authority, and new cross-country data on international tax enforcement
α-returns to scale with quasi-fixed inputs: an application to Québec hospitals
No full textInternational audienceThis paper focuses on the determination and estimation of the optimal size of hospitals. To determine the optimal size of a production unit, we use the measurement of returns to scale (RTS) at the decision-making unit level. When the RTS are constant, the unit is deemed of optimal size as the average total cost is at its minimum. As we deal with public service in a non-market environment, we have to take into account the fact that hospitals may not operate efficiently. To estimate the required production frontier we adapt the α-returns to scale method (a DEA type algorithm compatible with non-convexity of the production set) to include quasi-fixed factors. This methodology is applied to Québec hospitals at different points in time in order to capture the effect of the restructuring of the public health system over the last three decades. We conclude that by relying more on larger institution the scale efficiency of the public system has increased. However, in spite of the large reduction in the number of small hospitals and their replacement by very large structures, the movement may have gone too far, as most of the large institutions tend to exhibits decreasing returns to scale
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
No full textInternational audienceWe study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal policy differs from a representative agent benchmark because monetary policy can affect consumption inequality, by stabilizing consumption risk arising from both idiosyncratic shocks and unequal exposures to aggregate shocks. The trade-off between consumption inequality, productive efficiency, and price stability is summarized in a simple linear-quadratic problem yielding interpretable target criteria. Stabilizing consumption inequality requires putting some weight on stabilizing the level of output, and correspondingly reducing the weights on the output gap and price level relative to the representative agent benchmark
Un empire bon marché. Histoire et économie politique de la colonisation française, XIXe-XXIe siècle
No full textInternational audienceAu XIXe siècle, la France s’est lancée dans la colonisation de pays entiers en Afrique et en Asie. Quelles ont été les motivations et les méthodes de cette politique ? Comment les sociétés dominées ont-elles été bouleversées, et quel développement économique et social ont-elles connu ? La décolonisation est-elle achevée aujourd’hui ? Un Empire bon marché propose de nouvelles réponses à ces questions controversées.Grâce à un long travail d’archives et d’analyse statistique, l’ouvrage décrit ainsi avec une grande précision les États coloniaux et leur fonctionnement – à travers notamment la fiscalité, le recrutement militaire, les flux de capitaux et les inégalités. Il montre que l’empire a peu coûté à la métropole jusqu’aux guerres d’indépendance, et que les capitaux français n’ont pas ruisselé vers les colonies. La « mission civilisatrice » que la République française s’était assignée n’a donc pas débouché sur le développement des pays occupés, et c’est plutôt un régime à la fois violent et ambigu qui s’y est établi. De fait, le régime colonial a surtout bénéficié à une petite minorité de colons et de capitalistes français. Quant aux élites nationalistes, elles ont le plus souvent reconduit un État autoritaire et inégalitaire après les indépendances. En s'attachant à l’évolution des sociétés colonisées et à leur devenir, Denis Cogneau fournit une contribution majeure et un nouvel éclairage sur l’impérialisme, d’hier à aujourd’hui
Workplace Democracy, the Bicameral Firm, and Stakeholder Theory
No full textInternational audienceFerreras's bicameral governance proposal for the corporation contributes to a recent wave of interest in democratizing the workplace. In this article, I connect this to a related ongoing movement in favor of the stakeholder approach to corporate purpose. I argue that this connection sheds light on, and may provide remedies for, some issues with the bicameral proposal: first, the risk of gridlock between the two parties in the dual governance structure; second, the indeterminacy of good management when shareholder primacy is abandoned. But I also note that shareholder primacy emerged spontaneously from structural features of the economy, so that special protection for the “good” firms is warranted, and that other key limitations of a market economy cannot be alleviated fully by democratizing the firm
Neural and computational underpinnings of biased confidence in human reinforcement learning
No full textInternational audienceWhile navigating a fundamentally uncertain world, humans and animals constantly evaluate the probability of their decisions, actions or statements being correct. When explicitly elicited, these confidence estimates typically correlates positively with neural activity in a ventromedial-prefrontal (VMPFC) network and negatively in a dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal network. Here, combining fMRI with a reinforcement-learning paradigm, we leverage the fact that humans are more confident in their choices when seeking gains than avoiding losses to reveal a functional dissociation: whereas the dorsal prefrontal network correlates negatively with a condition-specific confidence signal, the VMPFC network positively encodes task-wide confidence signal incorporating the valence-induced bias. Challenging dominant neuro-computational models, we found that decision-related VMPFC activity better correlates with confidence than with option-values inferred from reinforcement-learning models. Altogether, these results identify the VMPFC as a key node in the neuro-computational architecture that builds global feeling-of-confidence signals from latent decision variables and contextual biases during reinforcement-learning
Pandemic preparedness and response: beyond the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator
No full textInternational audienceNationalism has trumped solidarity, resulting in unnecessary loss of life and inequitable access to vaccines and therapeutics. Existing intellectual property (IP) regimens, trade secrets and data rights, under which pharmaceutical firms operate, have also posed obstacles to increasing manufacturing capacity, and ensuring adequate supply, affordable pricing, and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines and other health products in low-income and middle- income countries. We propose: (1) Implementing alternative incentive and funding mechanisms to develop new scientific innovations to address infectious diseases with pandemic potential; (2) Voluntary and involuntary initiatives to overcome IP barriers including pooling IP, sharing data and vesting licences for resulting products in a globally agreed entity; (3) Transparent and accountable collective procurement to enable equitable distribution; (4) Investments in regionally distributed research and development (R&D) capacity and manufacturing, basic health systems to expand equitable access to essential health technologies, and non-discriminatory national distribution; (5) Commitment to strengthen national (and regional) initiatives in the areas of health system development, health research, drug and vaccine manufacturing and regulatory oversight and (6) Good governance of the pandemic prevention, preparedness and response accord. It is important to articulate principles for deals that include reasonable access conditions and transparency in negotiations. We argue for an equitable, transparent, accountable new global agreement to provide rewards for R&D but only on the condition that pharmaceutical companies share the IP rights necessary to produce and distribute them globally. Moreover, if countries commit to collective procurement and fair pricing of resulting products, we argue that we can greatly improve our ability to prepare for and respond to pandemic threats