Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements
No full textInternational audienceThis paper explores the economic impacts of preferential trade agreements, conditional on their level of ambition. It clusters 278 agreements, encompassing 910 provisions over 18 policy areas and estimates the trade elasticity for the different clusters. These elasticities are used in a series of general-equilibrium counterfactual situations for endowment economies, revealing that deepening existing agreements (the intensive margin of regional integration) could boost world trade by 3.9 percent and world GDP by 0.9 percent. The expected gains from deepening agreements within or across regions vary depending on the initial depth of agreements and the size of regional markets
Préférences et croyances pendant le « grand confinement » : l’épargnant face au risque
No full textInternational audienceIs the psyche of individuals susceptible to change during “crises”? Or conversely, to paraphrase Stigler and Becker [1977], are individual preferences “rock solid”, in other words, stable over time? Even if, theoretically, economists favor preference stability over instability, knowing whether “shocks,” whether demographic, health, natural, conflict or economic, are likely to modify the parameters of individuals’ tastes and, consequently, their behavior, is an important question for public policy. Many empirical studies now seek to test whether or not preferences change over time, or whether they are durably modified by life events or structural shocks faced by individuals. The conclusions depend on the origin of the shocks, the methodology adopted to measure preferences and the nature of the questions asked. The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic shock is a new opportunity to study this question of taste stability. There are already many studies that have analyzed the impact of the Covid crisis on savers, but they do not reach a consensus on the meaning of the impact of the health crisis on preferences. For France, the statistical treatments carried out here on the basis of the Pat€r 2020 survey show a stability of risk preferences: The “great containment” would thus have had little impact on savers’ preferences.La psyché des individus est-elle susceptible de changer pendant les crises ? Inversement, pour paraphraser Stigler et Becker [1977], les préférences individuelles sont-elles « solides comme un roc », en d’autres termes stables temporellement ? Même si théoriquement, les économistes privilégient la stabilité des préférences sur l’instabilité, savoir si des chocs, qu’ils soient démographiques, sanitaires, naturels, conflictuels ou économiques, sont susceptibles de modifier les paramètres de goût des individus et, en conséquence, leur comportement, est une question importante en matière de politique publique. De nombreux travaux empiriques cherchent aujourd’hui à tester si les préférences évoluent, ou non, dans le temps, ou encore si elles sont durablement modifiées par des événements de la vie ou des chocs structurels auxquels sont confrontés les individus. Les conclusions dépendent de l’origine des chocs, de la méthodologie adoptée pour mesurer les préférences et de la nature des questions posées. Le choc de la pandémie de la Covid-19 de 2020 est une nouvelle opportunité pour étudier cette question de la stabilité des goûts. Il existe déjà de nombreuses études qui ont analysé l’impact de la crise de la Covid sur les épargnants mais qui n’aboutissent à aucun consensus sur le sens de l’impact de la crise sanitaire sur les préférences. Pour la France, les traitements statistiques réalisés ici à partir de l’enquête Pat€r 2020 montrent plutôt une stabilité des préférences vis-à-vis du risque : le « grand confinement » n’aurait ainsi eu que peu d’impact sur les préférences de l’épargnant
Do retail businesses have efficient incentives to invest in public charging stations for electric vehicles?
No full textInternational audienceMany public charging stations for electric vehicles in the United States are chargers installed at the premises of pre-existing businesses such as grocery stores or restaurants. This paper investigates the incentives of these retail businesses to install and operate charging stations. First, we note that observed pricing schedules for charging stations significantly depart from both first-best and monopoly pricing. We argue that a possible explanation is that many hosting facilities may install a charging station primarily as a strategy to attract more customers to their core business. Second, we use an imperfect competition model to study retail businesses’ incentives to invest in charging stations. We show that hosting facilities may be trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma where investing in a charging station decreases their profit in the long run. However, the equilibrium level of investments in public charging stations need not differ from the socially optimal outcome
Delayed treatment for uterine fibroids during the COVID‐19 pandemic
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Complementarities in Infrastructure: Evidence from Rural India
No full textComplementarities between infrastructure projects have been understudied. This paper examines interactions in the impacts of large-scale road construction, electrification, and mobile phone coverage programs in rural India. We find strong evidence of complementary impacts between roads and electricity on agricultural production: dry season cropping increases significantly when villages receive both, but not when they receive one without the other. These complementarities are associated with a shift of cropping patterns towards market crops and with improved economic conditions. In contrast, we find no consistent evidence of complementarities for the mobile coverage program
Mortality inequalities in France since the 1920s: Evidence of a reversal of the income gradient in mortality
No full textInternational audienceMany recent studies show that Europe has had a lower mortality inequality for most ages than the United States over the last thirty years. However, the evolution of the income gradient in mortality all along the twentieth century remains poorly understood. This article uses a unique dataset that gives the annual lifetables and fiscal income for the 90 administrative regions of mainland France from 1922 to 2020. The income gradients in mortality are computed across regions using a traditional method with calendar ages and, alternatively, with mortality milestones to control for the increase in life expectancy over time. The study reveals a systematic reversal of the gradient that occurred around the 1970s for both sexes and all ages or mortality groups when calculated at an aggregated level. Inequality in mortality amongst the oldest age groups has however returned to a level observed at least ten years earlier because of Covid-19, even after controlling for mortality improvements over the period
Marriage as insurance: job protection and job insecurity in France
No full textInternational audienceJob insecurity is one of the risks that workers face on the labour market. As with any risk, individuals can choose to insure against it, and we here consider marriage as one potential source of this insurance. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by larger private firms when they laid off workers aged 50 or over, led to an exogenous rise in job insecurity for the uncovered (younger workers) in these larger firms. A difference-in-differences analysis using French panel data reveals that this greater job insecurity for the under-50s led to a significant rise in their probability of marriage, and especially when the partner had greater job security, consistent with marriage providing insurance against labour-market risk
Institutional Long-Term Care Use in France (2008-2015): The Role of Family Resources
No full textInternational audienceThe substantial increase in the proportion of very old people in the population has not given rise to a large increase in institutional long-term care (LTC) in France. In this article, we aim to analyse the contribution of individual factors to this trend: age, level of education, gender, type of disability and the family environment. Based on data from the Handicap-Santé 2008-2009 survey and Capacités et Aides et REssources des seniors (CARE) 2015-2016 survey, we estimate the change in the probability that an individual aged 75 or over will be living in an institution based on these various factors. A decomposition shows that the increase in the proportion of very old people and those with severe limitations brings about an increase in overall use, but that the increase is offset by a concomitant increase in family resources to be helped at home. The level of use associated with the various factors did not change significantly. The limited increase in LTC use is explained by a composition effect, linked to an increase in family resources to provide in-home care, but not to a reduced level of LTC use
People Get Ready: Optimal timing of Revolution
No full textWe study here whether and when a social movement can turn into a successful revolution and modify the production system. To do so, the dynamics of social unrest is de_ned as a function of the number of discriminated workers, and their organizational skills, wage inequalities, and retaliation. Then, taking the evolution of social unrest into account, we obtain the optimal time for a revolution as the moment which maximizes discriminated workers' lifetime welfare. It is proven that if unrest increases with time and if a revolution does improve the discriminated's welfare, then a revolution arises independently of the initial state and the characteristics of the economy. Whenever the gains are high enough, then a revolution arises immediately. Worth noting, we show that even if social movement loses momentum, a revolution arises if the initial mass of discontent is sizeable or the system is so repressive that it becomes necessary to revolt
Subjective Expected Utility Through Stochastic Independence
No full textInternational audienceThis paper studies decision-making in the face of two stochastically independent sources of uncertainty. It characterizes axiomatically a Subjective Expected Utility representation of preferences where subjective beliefs consist of a product probability measure. The two key axioms in this characterization both involve some behavioral notions of stochastic independence. Our result can be understood as a purely subjective version of the Anscombe and Aumann (1963) theorem that avoids the controversial use of exogenous probabilities by appealing to stochastic independence. We also obtain an extension to Choquet Expected Utility representations