Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Climate change, natural resources, and conflict
No full textInternational audienceThis paper examines how climate change and natural resource dynamics contribute to conflict, with a focus on the implications of the green transition. It reviews empirical evidence showing that extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves—are linked to increased violence, particularly through economic disruptions, reduced agricultural productivity, and displacement. The analysis also explores the mechanisms through which climate shocks influence conflict, including opportunity costs, resource competition, and behavioural responses to environmental stress. The discussion then turns to the role of natural resource exploitation, especially in the context of rising demand for minerals essential to low-carbon technologies. The paper highlights how resource price and availability shocks can trigger conflict, often depending on the type of resource, extraction method, and local governance. It also addresses the overlap between climate- and resource-driven conflict risks, emphasizing that their interaction may amplify instability. Throughout, the paper identifies open research questions related to prediction, the effects of long-run environmental changes, and the design of policy responses. These include insurance schemes, climate adaptation strategies, infrastructure investment, and regulatory frameworks for resource governance. The findings point to the need for research that integrates climate and conflict dynamics, with the goal of informing policies that can mitigate the risks associated with environmental change and resource pressures
Technological Change and Domestic Outsourcing
No full textInternational audienceDoes domestic outsourcing react to technological change? We study the staggered diffusion of broadband internet in France in the 2000s and show that connected firms increased their outsourcing expenditures while decreasing the diversity of occupations they employ in-house. Meanwhile, employment in noncore occupations became increasingly concentrated in firms specializing in subcontracting services. Finally, we provide evidence that workers in high-skill occupations experienced salary gains from being outsourced, while workers in low-skill occupations lost out. Overall, we show that the deployment of new technologies stimulated domestic outsourcing in this context, with important implications for labor market inequality
Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism
No full textInternational audienceNGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a triadic gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach
Social security and retirement around the world: lessons from a long-term collaboration
No full textInternational audienceDeclining labor force participation of older men throughout the 20th century and recent increases in participation have generated substantial interest in understanding the effect of public pensions on retirement. The National Bureau of Economic Research's International Social Security (ISS) Project, a long-term collaboration among researchers in a dozen developed countries, has explored this and related questions. The project employs a harmonized approach to conduct within-country analyses that are combined for meaningful cross-country comparisons. The key lesson is that the choices of policy makers affect the incentive to work at older ages and these incentives have important effects on retirement behavior
L'interculturalité : pour un accès au droit universel ?
No full textInternational audience"L'interculturalité : pour un accès au droit universel ?
Attrition in Randomized Controlled Trials: Using Tracking Information to Correct Bias
No full textInternational audienceThis paper analyzes the implications of attrition for the internal and external validity of the results of four randomized experiments and proposes a new method to correct for attrition bias. We find that not including those found during the intensive tracking can lead to a substantial overestimation or underestimation of the intention-to-treat effects, even when attrition without such tracking is balanced. We propose to correct for attrition using inverse probability weighting with estimates of weights that exploit the similarities between missing individuals and those found during an intensive tracking phase
Lifecycle Wages and Human Capital Investments: Selection and Missing Data
No full textWe derive wage equations with individual specific coefficients from a structural model of human capital investment over the life cycle. This model allows for interruptions in labour market participation and deals with missing data and attrition problems. We propose a new framework that deals with missingness at random and is based on factor decompositions that allow for flexible control of selection. Our approach leads to an interactive effect wage specification, which we estimate using long administrative panel data on male wages in the private sector in France. A structural function approach shows that interruptions negatively affect average wages. Interestingly, they also negatively affect the inter-decile range of wages after twenty years. This is only partly due to the fact that interruptions are endogenous
Heterogeneous Trade Elasticity and Managerial Skills
No full textThis paper investigates the role played by firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power, and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destination level export data from France for the period 1995-2007 matched with specific information on the firms' share of managers. Our findings show that managerial intensive firms have larger exporter price elasticity to real exchange rate variations. The effect is not trivial: in the wake of a depreciation, exporters whose management intensity is one standard deviation higher than the average, increase their prices by 51% to 73% more than the average exporter. This finding is robust to controlling for the alternative explanations suggested by the previous literature to explain the heterogeneous pass-through of firms
The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism
No full textWe investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia”. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent cross-country evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle -- characterized by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of themiddle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely