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Dynamically rational judgment aggregation
No full textInternational audienceJudgment-aggregation theory has always focused on the attainment of rational collective judgments. But so far, rationality has been understood in static terms: as coherence of judgments at a given time, defined as consistency, completeness, and/or deductive closure. This paper asks whether collective judgments can be dynamically rational, so that they change rationally in response to new information. Formally, a judgment aggregation rule is dynamically rational with respect to a given revision operator if, whenever all individuals revise their judgments in light of some information (a learnt proposition), then the new aggregate judgments are the old ones revised in light of this information, i.e., aggregation and revision commute. We prove an impossibility theorem: if the propositions on the agenda are non-trivially connected, no judgment aggregation rule with standard properties is dynamically rational with respect to any revision operator satisfying some basic conditions. Our theorem is the dynamic-rationality counterpart of some well-known impossibility theorems for static rationality. We also explore how dynamic rationality might be achieved by relaxing some of the conditions on the aggregation rule and/or the revision operator. Notably, premise-based aggregation rules are dynamically rational with respect to so-called premise-based revision operators
Empirical Challenges in the Study of Employer Associations and their Representativeness
No full textInternational audienceThe paper examines the quality and appropriateness of the data available to measure firms' affiliation to Employer Associations (EAs). We find large discrepancies in affiliation rates obtained from the five different data sources available for France, leading us in particular to discard tax data. Focusing on survey data, we show that asking managers about affiliation to EAs in general or affiliation to a list of specific EAs can lead to large differences in affiliation rates, highlighting the importance of the framing of survey questions. We then provide methods to estimate an aggregate firm-level affiliation rate from surveys covering workplaces with eleven or more employees. Exploiting (i) conflicting survey responses regarding EA affiliation between distinct establishments in the same firm and (ii) survey responses for firms that report paying contributions to EAs in their financial statements, we finally estimate the shares of employers that wrongly declare being or not being affiliated to EAs, and provide a rate of affiliation corrected for such errors. The implications for econometric analysis of the high observed error rates are discussed
De la difficulté d'évaluer un club de football professionnel
No full textInternational audienceSport professionnel européen le plus développé financièrement parlant, le football n’en reste pas moins un secteur où il demeure particulièrement complexe d’appliquer les méthodologies d’analyses de l’économie traditionnelle
Loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from five European countries
No full textInternational audienceWe use quarterly panel data from the COME-HERE survey covering five European countries to analyse three facets of the experience of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, in terms of prevalence, loneliness peaked in April 2020, followed by a U-shape pattern in the rest of 2020, and then remained relatively stable throughout 2021 and 2022. We then establish the individual determinants of loneliness and compare them to those found in the literature predating the COVID-19 pandemic. As in previous work, women are lonelier, and partnership, education, income, and employment protect against loneliness. However, the pandemic substantially shifted the age profile: it is now the youngest who are the loneliest. We last show that pandemic policies affected loneliness, which rose with containment policies but fell with government economic support. Conversely, the intensity of the pandemic itself, via the number of recent COVID-19 deaths, had only a minor impact. The experience of the pandemic has thus shown that public policy can influence societal loneliness trends
The long run impact of childhood interracial contact on residential segregation
No full textInternational audienceThis paper exploits quasi-random variation in the share of Black students across cohorts within US schools to investigate whether childhood interracial contact impacts the residential choices of Whites when they are adults. We find that, 20 years after exposure, Whites who had more Black peers of the same gender in their grade go on to live in census tracts with more Black residents. Further investigation suggests that this result is unlikely to be driven by economic opportunities or social networks. Instead, the effect on residential choice appears to come from a change in preferences among Whites
Weak redistribution and certainty equivalent domination
No full textInternational audienceWe assess optimal deterministic nonlinear income taxation in a Mirrlees economy with a continuum of risk‐averse agents whose utilities are quasilinear in labor. A weak redistribution motive makes random taxes more likely socially dominated by the deterministic policy where after‐tax income lotteries are replaced with their certainty equivalents
Frailty Indicator over the Adult Life Cycle as a Predictor of Healthcare Expenditure and Mortality in the Short to Midterm
No full textInternational audienceBackground: Assessing frailty from middle age onward offers valuable insights into predicting healthcare expenditures throughout the life cycle. Objectives: This paper examines the use of physical frailty as an indicator of healthcare demand across all age groups. The originality of this work lies in extending the analysis of frailty indicators beyond the typical focus on individuals under 50 years old to include those in mid-life and older. Methods: For this study, we used a database where frailty was measured in 2012 in a sample of individuals aged 15 to over 90. These individuals were tracked for their healthcare expenditures from 2012 to 2016. Results: Among the sample of 6928 individuals, frailty in 2012 resulted in a statistically significant increase in costs at the 5% level for the population aged 15 to 65. We applied multilevel linear regression models with year fixed effects, controlling for demographic factors, education level, precarity, social dimensions, lifestyle factors (e.g., vegetable consumption), physical activity, emotional well-being, and medical history. A Hausman test was conducted to validate the model choice. For mortality rate analysis, Cox models were used. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that physical frailty provides valuable information for understanding its impact on healthcare expenditure. The effect of frailty on mortality is particularly significant for the elderly population. Moreover, frailty is a predictor of healthcare costs not only in older adults but also across the entire life cycle
Central banks and the absorption of international shocks (1891-2019)
No full textWe study how central banks have used their balance sheet to absorb international monetary shocks since the late 19th century, thereby regaining some monetary policy autonomy in a context of financial openness. If the uncovered interest rate parity does not hold, an increase in the leading international interest rate may push up domestic interest rates in both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Central banks can partially insulate domestic short-term interest rates from this increase by expanding domestic assets. With a fixed exchange rate, this is in addition to the sterilization of foreign exchange interventions. Accounting for the response of central bank balance sheets to an exogenous international shock sheds light on some puzzling behavior of interest rates and exchange rates across international monetary regimes in history. This study is based on a new monthly dataset of central bank balance sheets, macroeconomic, and financial variables for 23 countries since 1891
Do wages underestimate the inequality in workers' rewards? The joint distribution of job quality and wages across occupations
No full textInternational audienceInformation on both wages and job quality is needed in order to understand the occupational dispersion of wellbeing. We analyse subjective wellbeing in a large UK sample to construct a measure of ‘overall reward’, the sum of wages and the value of job quality, in 90 different occupations. If only wages are included, then labour market inequality is underestimated: the dispersion of overall rewards is one‐third larger than the dispersion of wages. Our findings are similar, and stronger, in data on US workers. We find a positive correlation between job quality and wages in all specifications, both between individuals in the cross‐section and within individuals in panel data. The gender and ethnic gaps in the labour market are larger than those in wages alone, and the overall rewards to education on the labour market are underestimated by earnings differentials alone