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Behavioral and computational signatures of reinforcement learning and confidence biases in gambling disorder
No full textInternational audienceBackground and aimsGambling Disorder (GD) is associated with maladaptive decision-making, possibly driven by biases in learning and confidence judgments. While prior research report abnormal learning rates and heightened overconfidence in GD, the affected cognitive mechanism producing these joint deficits has so far remained unidentified. Our study aims to fill this gap using a recently established reinforcement learning (RL) experimental and computational framework linking learning processes, outcome-valence effects and confidence judgments.MethodsWe pre-registered and tested the hypotheses that GD patients exhibit increased (over)confidence and confirmatory learning bias, and increased outcome valence effects on choice accuracy and confidence judgements in in 18 participants with GD and 19 matched controls.ResultsWhile our findings replicated the main behavioral patterns of choices and confidence judgments, and confirmed their computational foundations, we did not find any group differences between the controls and patients with GD.Discussion and ConclusionsThe current findings speak to the inconsistent findings of abnormalities in confidence and learning in GD. Systematic research is necessary to better understand the influence of possibly mediating factors such as disorder-related idiosyncrasies (e.g. skill- vs chance-based preferences) to further clarify if, when and how confidence and learning are affected in people with GD
Quantal response equilibrium with a continuum of types: Characterization and nonparametric identification
No full textInternational audienceQuantal response equilibrium (QRE), a statistical generalization of Nash equilibrium, is a standard benchmark in the analysis of experimental data. Despite its influence, nonparametric characterizations and tests of QRE are unavailable beyond the case of finite games. We address this gap by completely characterizing the set of QRE in a class of binary-action games with a continuum of types. Our characterization provides sharp predictions in settings such as global games, volunteer's dilemma, and the compromise game. Further, we leverage our results to develop nonparametric tests of QRE. As an empirical application, we revisit the experimental data from Carrillo and Palfrey (2009) on the compromise game
Building without income mixing: Public housing quotas in France
No full textWe study the effects of the SRU law introduced in France in December 2000 to support scattered development of public housing in cities and favor social mixity. This law imposes 20% of public dwellings to all medium and large municipalities of large-enough cities, with fees for those not abiding by the law. Using exhaustive fiscal data, we evaluate the effects of the law over the 1996-2008 period using a difference-in-differences approach at the municipality and neighborhood levels. We find that the law stimulated public housing construction in treated municipalities, but only slightly increased the presence of low-income households. Indeed, new public dwellings enter categories to which medium-income are eligible and most additional occupants are not poor. Within municipalities, the policy decreased public housing segregation but it barely decreased low-income segregation. This comes from local authorities increasing over time the presence of public dwellings in neighborhoods away from existing public housing but in places concentrating low-income households
Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect
No full textInternational audienceThis paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-country time series regression, controlling for tax rates, we confirm that the informal economy grows significantly in recessions and decreases in booms, which we term the “Hugo effect”
Socio-economic inequalities in access to COVID-19 tests in France in 2020: evidence from the EPICOV socio-epidemiological cohort
No full textInternational audienceTesting for COVID-19 has been strongly recommended for individuals experiencing COVID-19-like symptoms or those with a close relative who tested positive. In France, tests were free of charge until mid-October 2021 and became widely available after June 2020. Our main objective was to investigate whether access to COVID-19 testing in France was associated with socio-economic conditions, considering gender and ethno-racial status. Methods A random population-based cohort survey was conducted in France in May 2020 and November 2020, including 95,388 participants aged 18 and over. We used logistic regressions to identify how having been tested in 2020 was associated with socio-economic status and exposure factors among two groups of individuals. The first group consisted of individuals who had no close relative test positive but reported experiencing Covid-19-like symptoms, such as cough, fever, dyspnea, or sudden onset of ageusia, dysgeusia, or anosmia (N=12,729). The second group included individuals, with or without symptoms, who reported that a close relative had tested positive for Covid-19 (N=5,360). Findings In both groups, testing was more frequent among individuals living in urban areas. For individuals who had no close relative test positive but reported Covid-19-like symptoms, women were 1.04 (95%CI [1.01-1.06]) more likely than men to be tested, and testing decreased with age up to 35. Individuals holding a university degree were 1.08 [1.04-1.12]) more likely than those who only completed high school to be tested, as well as those in one of the three top income deciles with reference to the bottom decile (OR 1.07, [1.02-1.13] for the top decile). Ethno-racial status was not significantly associated with testing. For respondents who had a close relative test positive, testing was strongly associated with having experienced some symptoms, especially after September 1 (OR 1.34, 95%CI [1.30-1.39]). However, there was no link between testing and income, education, or ethno-racial status. Interpretation When an individual experiences symptoms but has no close relative who is positive, the motivation to test to avoid transmitting the virus to relatives by isolating oneself is particularly strong. This strategy makes sense when there are actual possibilities to isolate, which may explain why higher income and education positively impact the propensity to test. For individuals who had a close relative test positive, most socio-economic variables were no longer related to testing once infection risk was controlled for. The availability of tests at no cost is not sufficient in itself to eliminate socio-economic inequalities in testing
Sharing Model Uncertainty
No full textThis paper examines efficient allocations in economies where consumers exhibit heterogeneous smooth ambiguity preferences and face model uncertainty with a common set of identifiable models. Aggregate endowment is ambiguous. We characterize economies where the representative consumer is of the smooth ambiguity type and derive efficient sharing rules. Heterogeneous ambiguity aversion leads to sharing rules that systematically differ from those in vNM-economies. The representative consumer’s ambiguity aversion differs from that of the typical consumer; this leads to more compelling asset-pricing predictions. We focus on point-identified models but show that our insights extend to partially-identified models
Where and why do politicians send pork? Evidence from central government transfers to French municipalities
No full textInternational audienceThis paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers' entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism toward childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed porkbarreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead.✩ This paper was previously circulated under the titles ''What motivates French pork: Political career concerns or private connections?'' and ''The returns from private and political connections: New evidence from French municipalities''. We greatly appreciated comments and suggestions from three anonymous reviewers, the Editor,</div
(Pro)-Social Learning and Strategic Disclosure
No full textInternational audienceWe study a sequential experimentation model with endogenous feedback. Agents choose between a safe and risky action, the latter generating stochastic rewards. When making this choice, each agent is selfishly motivated (myopic). However, agents can disclose their experiences to a public record, and when doing so are pro-socially motivated (forward-looking). When prior uncertainty is large, disclosure is both polarized (only extreme signals are disclosed) and positively biased (no feedback is bad news). When prior uncertainty is small, a novel form of unraveling occurs and disclosure is complete. Subsidizing disclosure costs can perversely lead to less disclosure but more experimentation
Distributing a Sane Beverage? The Social Differentiation of Access to Water in Paris
No full textInternational audienceWater management depends on both the physical and social structures of large cities. In Paris, these elements interacted to limit and constrain access to water for large segments of the population for long periods of time. The very unequal distribution of property in the city is central to understanding water regimes in Paris and their evolution over time. This article analyzes the evolution of water systems in Paris from the mid-nineteenth century to the mid-twentieth century, considering access to water (and its quality) as well as the provision of sewers to remove waste soiled materials. Important social variations in the modalities of access to water within the city persisted for a long time. They were a consequence of choices made in organizing the distribution of water in the city
La participation des citoyens aux expérimentations sur les modes de scrutin
No full textInternational audienceIn situ experimentations provide opportunities for exchanges between eesearchers and citizens. This article describes their potential impact on research regarding political studies and voting rules in particular. It comments the citizens perception of these experiments, and which social expectations they raise. It also illustrates two cases for which the active participation of voters made research questions evolve: firstly, the importance of expressive voting for voters, and secondly, the forms and challenges of understanding and explaining voting rules. These cases all uncover the prominence of voters’ agency, and draw attention on the need for scientists’ axiological neutrality in political studies.Certains dispositifs d’expérimentation in situ sont des occasions d’échanges entre chercheurs et citoyens. Cet article décrit quel impact ces interactions ont pu avoir dans la recherche sur les phénomènes politiques et, en particulier, pour l’étude des modes de scrutin. Après avoir présenté la réception de ces dispositifs et les attentes sociales qu’ils suscitent, l’article montre que la participation active des votants est en mesure de faire évoluer les questions de recherche. Nous l’illustrons dans deux domaines, d’une part sur l’importance que le vote d’expression a pour les votants, et d’autre part sur les formes et les enjeux de la compréhension et de l’explicabilité des modes de scrutin. Ces exemples attirent l’attention sur l’agentivité des votants et pointent la nécessaire neutralité axiologique des scientifiques dans les recherches sur les questions politiques